省内区域优势明显、占比提升，直营渠道占比提升。分区域看，2025Q2 安徽省内/省外市场分别实现营 收7.30/2.96 亿元，同比-20.29%/-36.38%，省外占比28.85%，明显下滑4.84pct。 我们认为，白酒需求承压背景下，各品牌基地市场的优势愈发明显，表现优于非基地市场，主要系其扎 实的渠道管理体系及良好的品牌认可度，消费者粘性更高。分渠道看，直销/批发代理分别实现营收 0.82/9.44 亿元，同比+1.46%/-27.40%，批发代理渠道占比下降2.15pcts，达到91.98%，说明公司直营渠 道拉动动销。经销商数量看，2025Q2 末为1383 家，其中省内/省外分别为761/622 家，较2025Q1 末净分 别增加3/1 家，经销商数量稳定。 盈利预测与评级：我们预计公司25-27 年归母净利润分别为21.32/22.58/24.61 亿元，同比增速分别 为-17.64%/5.90%/8.99%，当前股价对应的PE 分别为17.1/16.15/14.81 倍。我们选取古井贡酒、今世缘、 山西汾酒作为可比公司，我们认为公司价格带受政商务白酒需求影响相对较小，且公司在安徽基地市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, with revenue at 5.36 billion RMB, down 24.4% year-on-year, and net profit at 346 million RMB, down 80.5% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company's performance is under pressure due to a downturn in industry demand, leading to a net loss in Q4 2024 [2][4]. - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected revenue growth rates of 1.5%, 6.6%, and 13.4% respectively [4][7]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.36 billion RMB, a decrease of 24.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million RMB, down 80.5% year-on-year. Q4 2024 revenue was 900 million RMB, down 51.1% year-on-year, resulting in a net loss of 320 million RMB [1]. Operational Analysis - The company's revenue structure weakened, with high-end and regular liquor sales at 4.1 billion RMB and 690 million RMB respectively, both showing declines of 27.6% and 23.4% year-on-year. Q4 2024 saw even steeper declines of 60.3% and 26.3% [2]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 9.0 percentage points to 65.5% due to rising costs and declining sales [2][3]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates a significant drop in net profit margin to 6.5% in 2024, down 18.6 percentage points, attributed to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in sales expenses [3]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 40.9%, reflecting ongoing capital expenditure needs despite the downturn [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a 57% and 56% reduction in net profit for 2025 and 2026, with expected net profits of 453 million RMB and 530 million RMB respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.36 RMB in 2025 and 1.59 RMB in 2026 [4][7].