业绩整体承压，处于调整期。2025Q1总营收/归母净利润分别为15.76/3.46亿元，分别同比-25%/-37%。产品结构变化 致毛利率下滑，管理费用整体优化。2025Q1毛利率/净利率分别为69%/22%，分别同比-4.8/-4.2pcts。2025Q1销售/管理 费用率分别为19%/8%，分别同比+3.0/-0.01pcts。税费及购买商品接受劳务支出减少，经营净现金流大幅增长。 2025Q1经营净现金流/销售回款分别为2.24/16.23亿元，分别同比+107%/-15%。截至2025Q1末，公司合同负债2.06亿元 (环比+0.41亿元)。 电商渠道表现较好，省内市场相对稳健 华鑫证券有限责任公司孙山山,肖燕南近期对舍得酒业（600702）进行研究并发布了研究报告《公司事件点评报告： 业绩表现承压，期待弹性恢复》，给予舍得酒业买入评级。 舍得酒业 事件 2025年4月25日，舍得酒业发布2025年一季报。 投资要点 业绩短期承压，合同负债环比增长 宏观经济下行风险、舍得增速不及预期、老酒战略推进受阻、省外扩张不及预期、夜郎古销售不及预期、股份回购进 度低于预期、股权激励目标实现低于预期。 证券之星数 ...

2025 年 05 月 07 日 业绩表现承压，期待弹性恢复 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 57.84 | | 总市值（亿元） | 193 | | 总股本（百万股） | 333 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 333 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 40.18-82.9 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 630.07 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《舍得酒业（600702）：业绩短 期承压，期待企稳回升》2025-03- 24 2、《舍得酒业（600702）：调整期 业绩承压，发布回购方案彰显信 心》2024-10-29 3、《舍得酒业（600702）：利润不 及预期，短期去库释放压力》2024- 08-22 2025 年 4 月 25 日，舍得酒业发 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490522050003 SAC：S0490522090002 SFC：BQK487 SFC：BVF934 公司研究丨点评报告丨洋河股份（002304.SZ） [Table_Title] 洋河股份 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评： 延续去库存节奏，关注公司战略调整 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年营业总收入 288.76 亿元（同比-12.83%）；归母净利润 66.73 亿元（同比-33.37%）。 公司 2024Q4 营业总收入 13.6 亿元（同比-52.17%）；归母净利润-19.05 亿元（同比扩亏）。公 司 2025Q1 营业总收入 110.66 亿元（同比-31.92%）；归母净利润 36.37 亿元（同比-39.93%）。 分析师及联系人 董思远 徐爽 朱梦兰 石智坤 伍爽 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 洋河股份（002304.SZ） cjzqdt1111 ...

东吴证券股份有限公司苏铖,郭晓东近期对洋河股份（002304）进行研究并发布了研究报告《2024年报及2025年一季 报点评：延续主动调整，静待经营改善》，给予洋河股份买入评级。 洋河股份 投资要点 事件：公司公告2024年报及2025年一季报，2024年营收288.76亿元，同比-12.83%，归母净利润66.73亿元，同 比-33.37%；其中24Q4营收13.60亿元，同比-52.17%，归母净利润-19.05亿元，去年同期为-1.88亿元。25Q1实现营收 110.66亿元，同比-31.92%，归母净利润36.37亿元，同比-39.93%。 2024年积极调整，但转型见效仍需时间。白酒行业进入存量竞争阶段，公司主力产品集中的中端和次高端价位承压较 大，因而积极调整经营策略，基础管理工作进一步夯实，但转型调整仍需时间。1)分产品来看，24年中高档酒、普通 酒营收分别同比-14.79%、-0.49%，预计核心品系均主动调整，梦系列下滑幅度略低于海天系列。2)分地区来看，24 年省内、省外营收分别同比-11.43%、-14.35%，后续将重点聚焦江苏和环苏市场，培育打造样板和高地市场，筑牢基 本盘。 产品结 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：延续主动 调整，静待经营改善 洋河股份（002304） ◼ 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；食品安全风险；次高端升级不及预期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 33,126 | 28,876 | 24,470 | 25,159 | 26,164 | | 同比（%） | 10.04 | (12.83) | (15.26) | 2.81 | 4.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,016 | 6,673 | 5,458 | 5,656 | 5,899 | | 同比（%） | 6.80 | (33.37) | (18.21) | 3.64 | 4.29 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 6.65 | 4.43 | 3.62 | 3.75 | 3.92 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.32 | 15.49 ...

迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 省外普酒承压 Q1 净利率创新高 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，24 年全年公司实现营收/ 归母净利润 73.44/25.89 亿元，同比+8.46%/+13.45%；经计算，24Q4 实现营 收/归母净利润 18.30/5.83 亿元，同比-5.00%/-7.88%；25Q1 实现营收/归母净 利润 20.47/8.29 亿元，同比-12.35%/-9.25%。 ➢ 省外中低档普酒缩量承压，洞藏向上势能延续。分产品看：酒类主营 70.02 亿元，同比+9.39%，量增+0.14%，价增+9.24%。毛利率 76.81%，同比 +2.73pcts。其中：①中高档白酒(洞藏及金银星)24 年实现营收 57.13 亿元，同 比+13.76%，量增+9.31%，价增+4.07%，毛利率提升+1.83pcts 至 81.07%， 在酒类主营业务中占比+3.14pcts 至 81.58%。25Q1 中高档白酒营收 17.20 亿 元，同比-8.57%。②普通酒(百年及糟坊)24 年实 ...

【山西汾酒2024年报展现强大实力，2025年目标稳健前行】2024年，白酒行业深度调整与宏观复苏交 织，山西汾酒以"稳中求进、进中保稳"战略，营收规模跻身行业前三。去年公司营业收入360.11亿元， 同比增长12.79%，归母净利润122.43亿元，同比增长17.29%，每股收益10.04元，同比增长17.20%，经 营活动现金流量净额121.72亿元，同比增长68.47%。今年一季度，公司实现营业收入165.22亿元，同比 增长7.72%，归母净利润66.48亿元，同比增长6.15%。山西汾酒业绩增长得益于科学战略布局和产品结 构优化。中高价酒实现收入265.32亿元，同比增长14.35%，普通酒收入93.42亿元，同比增长9.40%。公 司还提出"四轮驱动"战略。渠道建设方面，汾酒销售额在亿元规模以上等各级别经销商数量增加，电商 渠道表现亮眼，去年电商平台收入21.05亿元，同比增长26.22%。2024年，山西汾酒在巩固省内市场同 时，加速全国化进程并布局国际化。山西省内市场收入135亿元，同比增长11.72%；省外市场收入 223.74亿元，同比增长13.81%，占总营收超60%。品牌建设上，山西汾 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 28.88 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.67 billion RMB, down 33.4% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 11.07 billion RMB, down 31.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.64 billion RMB, down 39.9% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [2]. - The company experienced a 16.3% decline in liquor sales in 2024, totaling 139,000 tons, while the price per ton increased by 3.9% to 203,000 RMB. The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor was 24.32 billion RMB and 3.93 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting declines of 14.8% and 0.5% [3]. - The company aims to focus on core products and key markets in 2025, with a commitment to cash dividends of no less than 7 billion RMB, corresponding to a current dividend yield of approximately 6.5% [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.88 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.67 billion RMB, down 33.4% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 11.07 billion RMB, down 31.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.64 billion RMB, down 39.9% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [2]. Operational Analysis - The company's liquor sales in 2024 decreased by 16.3% to 139,000 tons, while the price per ton increased by 3.9% to 203,000 RMB. Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor was 24.32 billion RMB and 3.93 billion RMB, respectively, with declines of 14.8% and 0.5% [3]. Financial Quality - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 7.1 percentage points to 23.1%, with a gross margin of 73.2%. The first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit margin of 32.9%, down 4.4 percentage points, indicating pressure on profitability due to increased expenses aimed at maintaining market share [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a 23% reduction in net profit for 2025 and a 27% reduction for 2026. Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to decline by 11.0%, followed by increases of 3.0% and 5.8% in subsequent years [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.88 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.67 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year. The performance was below market expectations [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.07 billion yuan, a decline of 31.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.64 billion yuan, down 39.9% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s white liquor sales decreased by 16.3% to 139,000 tons in 2024, while the price per ton increased by 3.9% to 203,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The company’s gross profit margin decreased to 73.2% in 2024, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin decreased to 23.1%, down 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company plans to focus on core products and key markets in 2025, aiming for sustainable development while maintaining price stability and channel profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company’s revenue was 28.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and the net profit was 6.67 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year. Q1 2025 revenue was 11.07 billion yuan, a decline of 31.9%, with a net profit of 3.64 billion yuan, down 39.9% [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s white liquor sales fell by 16.3% to 139,000 tons in 2024, with a price increase of 3.9% to 203,000 yuan/ton. Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor was 24.32 billion yuan and 3.93 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 14.8% and 0.5% [3]. Financial Quality - The company’s net profit margin decreased to 23.1% in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 73.2%. In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 32.9%, with a gross profit margin of 72.8% [4]. - The company has committed to a cash dividend of no less than 7 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to a current dividend yield of approximately 6.5% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026, expecting a 23% and 27% decrease in net profit, respectively. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to decline by 11.0%, increase by 3.0%, and increase by 5.8%, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.05 billion RMB, down 12.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 830 million RMB, down 9.5% year-on-year, indicating a decline in performance compared to market expectations [2]. - The revenue structure shows that the underperformance is mainly due to low-priced products and challenges in expanding outside the province [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 73.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 25.9 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 13.4% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 20.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, and the net profit was 8.3 billion RMB, down 9.5% year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - By product, the revenue for mid-to-high-end and regular liquor in 2024 was 57.1 billion RMB and 12.9 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.8% and -6.5% [3]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in Q1 2025 was 17.2 billion RMB, down 8.6% year-on-year, while regular liquor revenue fell by 32.1% [3]. - Regionally, the company reported revenues of 50.9 billion RMB from within the province and 19.1 billion RMB from outside the province in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 12.8% and 1.3%, respectively [3]. Financial Quality - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.5 percentage points to 35.3%, with a gross margin increase of 2.9 percentage points [4]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 40.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 1.5 percentage points [4]. - The company is focusing on marketing for its cave-aged series, indicating a sustained upward potential in product structure [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 10% and 14%, respectively, with expected revenues growing by 3.4% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026 [5]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.72 billion RMB, 2.90 billion RMB, and 3.26 billion RMB, respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 3.40 RMB, 3.62 RMB, and 4.07 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.4, 13.5, and 12.0 [5].