公司报告 | 半年报点评 舍得酒业（600702） 证券研究报告 普通酒高增贡献增长，静待拐点来临 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业 收 入/ 归母 净利 润 分别为 27.01/4.43 亿 元（ 同比 -17.41%/-24.98%）。2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 11.25/0.97 亿 元（同比-3.44%/+139.48%）。 沱牌结构优化成效突出，次高端需求偏弱中高档酒仍承压。25Q2 公司酒 类业务营收 9.76 亿元（同比-4.52%）。 分产品 来看， 中高 档酒/ 普通酒 营收 分别为 7.39/2.37 亿元 （同比 -15.65%/+62.25%），中高档酒下滑预计主要系 Q2"禁酒令"影响之下次高 端价位需求承压明显；普通酒增长突出主要系：①24Q2 低基数；②T68 等 升级单品延续 Q1 以来放量势能。 分渠道看，批发/电商营收分别为 8.45/1.31 亿元（同比-7.80%/+23.83%） ; 分区域看，省内/省外营收分别为 2.89/6.86 亿元（同比-21.20%/+4.84%）。 产品结构下行毛利率阶段略承压，费用率下 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 16.454 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.650 billion yuan, a decline of 4.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.97%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.07 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.055 billion yuan, a decline of 11.24% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company has effectively managed inventory reduction, which is expected to allow for a more agile operational approach moving forward. The company is assisting distributors in inventory clearance, showing positive results [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company’s mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated revenue of 15.048 billion yuan, a decline of 1.09% year-on-year, with sales volume of 24,100 tons, an increase of 13.33% year-on-year, and an average selling price of 623,900 yuan per ton, down 12.72% year-on-year [9]. - The ordinary liquor segment reported revenue of 1.350 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.96% year-on-year, with sales volume of 24,800 tons, down 6.89% year-on-year, and an average selling price of 54,400 yuan per ton, down 10.82% year-on-year [9]. - The company's net profit margin decreased by 0.91 percentage points to 46.57%, and the gross margin fell by 1.48 percentage points to 87.09% [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 8.44 yuan and 8.86 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 and 16 times [9].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Spirits achieved a net profit of 0.97 billion yuan in Q2, representing a year-on-year increase of 139.48%, while the net profit for H1 2025 was 4.43 billion yuan, down 24.98% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 7.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.65%, while the revenue from ordinary liquor was 2.37 billion yuan, an increase of 62.25% [1] - The demand for the sub-high-end price segment is still recovering, with T68 showing a high year-on-year growth rate [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on an old liquor strategy as a cornerstone, while simultaneously promoting a multi-brand strategy, youth-oriented strategy, and internationalization strategy [1] - Early inventory destocking and expense control have helped stabilize the company's fundamentals, with expectations for gradual recovery in net profit due to expense management and product structure adjustments [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Due to pressure on government and business consumption scenarios, the revenue growth forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down to -9%, 5%, and 10% respectively [1] - The forecast for net profit growth has also been adjusted to 100%, 11%, and 23% for the same period [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 30 times for 2026, and the company maintains a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's financial report for the first half of the year indicates efforts to seek transformation amid challenges, with a notable recovery in the second quarter despite an overall decline in performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Shede Liquor achieved revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.01% compared to the same period last year [1]. - Net profit reached 443.3 million yuan, down 24.98% year-on-year [1]. - In the second quarter, revenue was 1.125 billion yuan, with a reduced decline of 3.44% year-on-year, and net profit surged to 97.17 million yuan, an increase of 139.48% [1]. Market Reaction - The capital market reacted positively to the financial results, with Shede Liquor's stock price rising significantly, reaching 67 yuan per share and a total market value of 22.3 billion yuan as of August 25 [3]. - Over the past 11 trading days, the stock price increased by 30.1%, outperforming the liquor sector's 12.77% and the broader market's 6.41% [3]. Strategic Adjustments - Shede Liquor has shifted its strategy from a focus on high-end products to increasing its presence in the ordinary liquor market, with the revenue share of mid-to-high-end liquor decreasing from 79.54% to 73.05% [3]. - Revenue from ordinary liquor increased by 15.86%, raising its revenue share to 16.47% [3]. Industry Challenges - The competitive landscape in the liquor industry is characterized by a "pyramid" structure, with top brands like Moutai and Wuliangye dominating the high-end market, leaving Shede Liquor in a fiercely competitive lower segment [4]. - The company faces challenges with distributor inventory pressures and a reduction in the number of distributors, with 78 fewer distributors and a 3.01% decline in contract liabilities [4]. - Inventory turnover days for Shede Liquor exceed the industry average, indicating ongoing inventory challenges [4]. New Channel Development - To address these challenges, Shede Liquor is focusing on e-commerce and live streaming, achieving sales of 336 million yuan through e-commerce channels, a year-on-year increase of 31.38% [4]. - Despite the growth in online sales, traditional channels remain crucial for liquor consumption, particularly for events and group purchases [4]. Future Outlook - The recovery in the second quarter reflects the effectiveness of Shede Liquor's strategic adjustments, primarily through cost reduction measures [5]. - The sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain, and the company needs to continue exploring suitable development paths while maintaining stable performance [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's financial report for the first half of the year shows a decline in both revenue and net profit, but there are signs of recovery in the second quarter, leading to a positive market response [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Shede Liquor achieved revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.01%, and a net profit of 443.3 million yuan, down 24.98% [1]. - In the second quarter, revenue was 1.125 billion yuan, a decline of only 3.44%, and net profit increased significantly by 139.48% to 97.17 million yuan [1]. - The stock price of Shede Liquor rose significantly, with a 30.1% increase over the past 11 trading days, outperforming the liquor sector and the broader market [1]. Strategic Adjustments - Shede Liquor has been in a downward adjustment cycle for several years, with four consecutive quarters of declining performance until signs of stabilization appeared in the second quarter of this year [2][4]. - The company has shifted its focus from high-end products to ordinary liquor, which has positively impacted its performance [6][8]. - Revenue from ordinary liquor increased by 15.86% year-on-year to 444.9 million yuan, with its share of total revenue rising by 4.73% [5][6]. Market Position and Competition - The liquor industry is characterized by a "pyramid" competition structure, with top brands like Moutai and Wuliangye dominating the high-end market, while Shede operates in a more competitive mid-range market [7]. - The company's sales expenses have decreased, contributing to improved net profit, as the focus on ordinary liquor has reduced marketing costs [8][9]. Challenges Ahead - Despite the recovery in the second quarter, Shede Liquor faces significant challenges, including pressure from distributors and high inventory levels [8][10]. - The number of distributors has decreased, and the company has shifted to direct sales channels, which may not be sustainable in the long term [8][9]. - Inventory levels have risen, with a significant portion of stock not translating into market competitiveness, indicating potential future challenges [10].

证券代码：600059 证券简称：古越龙山 编号：临 2025-034 浙江古越龙山绍兴酒股份有限公司 2025 年 1-6 月经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号—行业信息披露》之 《第十二号—酒制造》的相关规定，现将公司 2025 年 1-6 月主要经营数据（未 经审计）公告如下： 一、产品销售情况： 三、区域情况： 注：以上数据口径为酒类业务。 1 单位：万元 渠道类型 本期销售收入 上期销售收入 变动比例 直销（含团购） 20503.12 20328.61 0.86% 批发代理 65600.37 65074.56 0.81% 国际销售 1764.63 1719.79 2.61% 合计 87868.12 87122.96 0.86% 单位：万元 区域情况 本期销售收入 上期销售收入 变动比例 上海地区 17662.15 17475.01 1.07% 浙江地区 25906.33 26901.31 -3.70% 江苏地区 7580.45 734 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights that despite the overall pressure on the liquor industry, Shede Liquor achieved a significant profit growth in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery trend amidst a challenging market environment [1] Industry Summary - The liquor industry is currently experiencing sales decline and inventory destocking due to weak consumption [1] - Most companies in the industry are facing profit pressure as a result of these market conditions [1] Company Summary - Shede Liquor reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 97.17 million yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 139.48%, showcasing a strong recovery [1] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q2 2025 was 740 million yuan and 240 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16% and +62% [1] - The company is focusing on building core base markets to secure advantageous profit regions and enhance its ability to withstand risks during economic downturns [1] - Revenue from domestic and foreign markets in Q2 2025 was 290 million yuan and 690 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -21% and +5%, indicating a faster recovery in the foreign market [1] - The company plans to continue developing a multi-brand, full-price, and full-channel base market strategy, particularly strengthening its presence in East China, South China, and Chongqing [1] - Shede Liquor aims to establish a comprehensive marketing operation system and advance digital upgrades to support a multi-brand marketing matrix, supply chain collaboration, and integrated financial management, which will promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] - The company is given a target price of 78.28 yuan based on a 38 times PE valuation for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has shown significant profit recovery, with terminal opening bottles improving [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a decrease in total operating revenue by 17% year-on-year, but a notable increase in net profit by 139% compared to the previous quarter [4][7] - The company is focusing on cost control and optimizing expenses, leading to a recovery in profit margins [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, total operating revenue was 2.701 billion yuan, a decrease of 17% year-on-year, while net profit was 443 million yuan, down 25% [4] - In Q2 2025, total operating revenue was 1.125 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, but net profit increased to 97 million yuan, up 139% [4] Investment Highlights - The company has improved its gross margin to 60.60% in Q2 2025, with a net profit margin increase of 5 percentage points to 8.56% [5] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in Q2 2025 was 739 million yuan, down 16%, while revenue from ordinary liquor increased by 62% to 237 million yuan [6] - The company plans to strengthen its platform advantages and expand group purchasing channels, anticipating a recovery in business banquets and overall performance [7] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 1.88, 2.14, and 2.50 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32, 28, and 24 times [7] - The company is expected to experience a significant rebound in net profit growth, with projections of 80.9% growth in 2025 and continued growth in subsequent years [10]

Group 1 - The liquor industry is still in a deep adjustment phase, and whether it has bottomed out remains to be observed [1][2][3] - Shede Liquor's stock price has increased by approximately 30% since opening at 51.5 yuan on August 11 [3] - In the first half of the year, Shede Liquor achieved operating revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4%, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, down 25% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - In the second quarter, Shede Liquor's revenue was 1.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 3.4%, compared to a decline of 22.6% in the same period last year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in the second quarter was 97.17 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 139.5% [2] - Sales revenue of mid-to-high-end products decreased by 15.6%, while ordinary liquor sales revenue surged by 62.3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the white liquor industry, including intensified competition and a slow recovery in consumer confidence, particularly in the mid-to-high-end product segment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue decreased by 17.41% to 2.701 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - Net profit attributable to the company fell by 24.98% to 443 million yuan [1] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor dropped by 24.15% to 1.973 billion yuan, while revenue from ordinary liquor increased by 15.86% to 445 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "control quantity and support price" strategy to address industry challenges and support sales [1] - The company is actively assisting distributors to enhance sales performance and manage channel inventory [1] - Increased investment in brand building and product upgrades is being prioritized to strengthen market presence [1] Group 3: Sales Channels - Revenue from wholesale and agency channels decreased by 23.72% to 2.082 billion yuan [1] - E-commerce sales revenue grew by 31.38% to 336 million yuan [1]