省内区域优势明显、占比提升，直营渠道占比提升。分区域看，2025Q2 安徽省内/省外市场分别实现营 收7.30/2.96 亿元，同比-20.29%/-36.38%，省外占比28.85%，明显下滑4.84pct。 我们认为，白酒需求承压背景下，各品牌基地市场的优势愈发明显，表现优于非基地市场，主要系其扎 实的渠道管理体系及良好的品牌认可度，消费者粘性更高。分渠道看，直销/批发代理分别实现营收 0.82/9.44 亿元，同比+1.46%/-27.40%，批发代理渠道占比下降2.15pcts，达到91.98%，说明公司直营渠 道拉动动销。经销商数量看，2025Q2 末为1383 家，其中省内/省外分别为761/622 家，较2025Q1 末净分 别增加3/1 家，经销商数量稳定。 盈利预测与评级：我们预计公司25-27 年归母净利润分别为21.32/22.58/24.61 亿元，同比增速分别 为-17.64%/5.90%/8.99%，当前股价对应的PE 分别为17.1/16.15/14.81 倍。我们选取古井贡酒、今世缘、 山西汾酒作为可比公司，我们认为公司价格带受政商务白酒需求影响相对较小，且公司在安徽基地市场 ...

华源证券股份有限公司张东雪,林若尧近期对迎驾贡酒（603198）进行研究并发布了研究报告《业绩加速 调整、基本面或已触底，静待需求复苏》，首次覆盖迎驾贡酒给予增持评级。 迎驾贡酒 | 报告日期 | 机构筒称 | 研究员 | 近三年业绩 | 研报数 | 覆盖时长 | 2025预测 | 2026预测 | 2027预测 | 目标价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 预测准确度 | | | 净利润(元) | 净利润(元) | 净利润(元) | (元) | | 2025-08-29 | 中信证券 | 美娅 | -- | -- | | 20.84 Z | 23.55 Z | 26.72 Z | 53.00 | | 2025-08-28 | 国元证券 | 单音 | -- | -- | -- | 21.36亿 | 23.04亿 | 24.97 乙 | -- | | 2025-08-28 | 东方证券 | 叶书怀 | -- | -- | -- | 22.03 乙 | 25.54 Z | 29.34 Z | 60.50 ...

Macro and Strategy - In July, new social financing in China was 1.16 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 1.41 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans decreasing by 500 billion yuan, indicating a rare negative growth [9][10] - The structure of social financing showed a dual characteristic of resilience and differentiation, with government financing contributing significantly to the increase [10][11] - The overall social financing growth rate rose to 9.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.893 billion yuan, primarily driven by government bonds and direct financing [10][11] Real Estate Industry - In the first half of 2025, new residential sales in China decreased by 4% year-on-year, with total sales area at 460 million square meters [18][19] - The sales of existing homes have increased, with the proportion of second-hand homes in total residential transactions rising to 46% in 2024, up from the lowest point in 2021 [19][20] - The competition landscape in the real estate sector is stabilizing, with major state-owned enterprises maintaining their positions in sales rankings [21][22] Food and Beverage Industry - The white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery in sales, with improved performance in August following a challenging second quarter [22][23] - Moutai's mid-year performance demonstrated resilience, with a revenue increase of 9.2% year-on-year, reflecting the industry's adjustment to market pressures [23][24] - The overall valuation of the white liquor sector is expected to enter a recovery phase, supported by positive policy expectations and improved consumer demand [24] Banking Industry - The cross-border payment landscape is evolving, with significant players like Ant International and Lianlian Digital shaping the competitive dynamics [25][26] Home Appliances and Light Industry - The home appliance sector is expected to see stable growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidy policies, despite facing challenges from tariffs [26][27] - The white goods segment is benefiting from strong domestic demand, while the black goods segment is experiencing price improvements due to cost reductions [27][28] Energy Sector - The domestic oil and gas production is on the rise, with the Guyana Yellowtail project being brought into production ahead of schedule, indicating strong operational performance [34][36]