公司报告 | 半年报点评 舍得酒业（600702） 证券研究报告 普通酒高增贡献增长，静待拐点来临 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业 收 入/ 归母 净利 润 分别为 27.01/4.43 亿 元（ 同比 -17.41%/-24.98%）。2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 11.25/0.97 亿 元（同比-3.44%/+139.48%）。 沱牌结构优化成效突出，次高端需求偏弱中高档酒仍承压。25Q2 公司酒 类业务营收 9.76 亿元（同比-4.52%）。 分产品 来看， 中高 档酒/ 普通酒 营收 分别为 7.39/2.37 亿元 （同比 -15.65%/+62.25%），中高档酒下滑预计主要系 Q2"禁酒令"影响之下次高 端价位需求承压明显；普通酒增长突出主要系：①24Q2 低基数；②T68 等 升级单品延续 Q1 以来放量势能。 分渠道看，批发/电商营收分别为 8.45/1.31 亿元（同比-7.80%/+23.83%） ; 分区域看，省内/省外营收分别为 2.89/6.86 亿元（同比-21.20%/+4.84%）。 产品结构下行毛利率阶段略承压，费用率下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Accumulate" rating for the company [5][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.454 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.65 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year [5][8] - The main business revenue decreased, accompanied by a downward shift in product structure, with liquor revenue at 16.397 billion yuan, a decline of 2.62% year-on-year [5][8] - The company experienced a significant increase in costs, with raw material costs rising by 10.07%, labor costs by 14.53%, and manufacturing costs by 7.32% [8] - The gross profit margin for the main business declined by 1.47 percentage points to 87.18%, with the gross margin for mid-to-high-end liquor decreasing by 1.23 percentage points to 91.03% [8] - The company reduced advertising expenses significantly by 20.31% while increasing promotional spending by 11.2% [8] - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.73 yuan, 9.13 yuan, and 9.71 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.57, 13.93, and 13.1 [8][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 30.416 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of -2.50% [10] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 12.851 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -4.61% [10] - The earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 8.73 yuan [10] Cost Structure - The main business costs increased significantly, with raw material costs up 10.07%, labor costs up 14.53%, and manufacturing costs up 7.32% [8] - The gross profit margin for the main business decreased to 87.18% [8] Market Position - The company’s liquor revenue showed a decline, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and consumer preferences [5][8] - The sales growth for mid-to-high-end liquor was notably different from revenue growth, suggesting a structural shift in sales [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in maintaining growth amidst a competitive market environment [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.45% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 7.102 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.97%, with net profit at 3.070 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year [1]. Product and Channel Analysis - In H1 2025, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor segments was 15.048 billion yuan and 1.350 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.09% and -16.96% [2]. - Traditional sales channels generated 15.465 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 3.99% year-on-year, while emerging channels saw a revenue increase of 27.55% to 1.948 billion yuan [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 87.09% and 46.57%, respectively, with slight declines of 1.48 percentage points and 0.91 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The tax rate increased by 1.18 percentage points, impacting net margin, while sales and management expense ratios improved slightly [3]. Cash Flow and Liabilities - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 6.064 billion yuan, down 26.27% year-on-year, with Q2 cash flow at 2.757 billion yuan, a decline of 28.69% [3]. - Contract liabilities increased, providing some assurance for future performance, with H1 liabilities at 3.530 billion yuan and Q2 at 4.636 billion yuan [3]. Investment Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of -5.2%, 4.6%, and 7.5% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of -7.7%, 5.5%, and 8.8% respectively [4]. - A buy-A investment rating is suggested, with a target price of 162.08 yuan based on a 19.18x valuation for 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Spirits achieved a net profit of 0.97 billion yuan in Q2, representing a year-on-year increase of 139.48%, while the net profit for H1 2025 was 4.43 billion yuan, down 24.98% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 7.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.65%, while the revenue from ordinary liquor was 2.37 billion yuan, an increase of 62.25% [1] - The demand for the sub-high-end price segment is still recovering, with T68 showing a high year-on-year growth rate [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on an old liquor strategy as a cornerstone, while simultaneously promoting a multi-brand strategy, youth-oriented strategy, and internationalization strategy [1] - Early inventory destocking and expense control have helped stabilize the company's fundamentals, with expectations for gradual recovery in net profit due to expense management and product structure adjustments [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Due to pressure on government and business consumption scenarios, the revenue growth forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down to -9%, 5%, and 10% respectively [1] - The forecast for net profit growth has also been adjusted to 100%, 11%, and 23% for the same period [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 30 times for 2026, and the company maintains a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's financial report for the first half of the year indicates efforts to seek transformation amid challenges, with a notable recovery in the second quarter despite an overall decline in performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Shede Liquor achieved revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.01% compared to the same period last year [1]. - Net profit reached 443.3 million yuan, down 24.98% year-on-year [1]. - In the second quarter, revenue was 1.125 billion yuan, with a reduced decline of 3.44% year-on-year, and net profit surged to 97.17 million yuan, an increase of 139.48% [1]. Market Reaction - The capital market reacted positively to the financial results, with Shede Liquor's stock price rising significantly, reaching 67 yuan per share and a total market value of 22.3 billion yuan as of August 25 [3]. - Over the past 11 trading days, the stock price increased by 30.1%, outperforming the liquor sector's 12.77% and the broader market's 6.41% [3]. Strategic Adjustments - Shede Liquor has shifted its strategy from a focus on high-end products to increasing its presence in the ordinary liquor market, with the revenue share of mid-to-high-end liquor decreasing from 79.54% to 73.05% [3]. - Revenue from ordinary liquor increased by 15.86%, raising its revenue share to 16.47% [3]. Industry Challenges - The competitive landscape in the liquor industry is characterized by a "pyramid" structure, with top brands like Moutai and Wuliangye dominating the high-end market, leaving Shede Liquor in a fiercely competitive lower segment [4]. - The company faces challenges with distributor inventory pressures and a reduction in the number of distributors, with 78 fewer distributors and a 3.01% decline in contract liabilities [4]. - Inventory turnover days for Shede Liquor exceed the industry average, indicating ongoing inventory challenges [4]. New Channel Development - To address these challenges, Shede Liquor is focusing on e-commerce and live streaming, achieving sales of 336 million yuan through e-commerce channels, a year-on-year increase of 31.38% [4]. - Despite the growth in online sales, traditional channels remain crucial for liquor consumption, particularly for events and group purchases [4]. Future Outlook - The recovery in the second quarter reflects the effectiveness of Shede Liquor's strategic adjustments, primarily through cost reduction measures [5]. - The sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain, and the company needs to continue exploring suitable development paths while maintaining stable performance [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's financial report for the first half of the year shows a decline in both revenue and net profit, but there are signs of recovery in the second quarter, leading to a positive market response [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Shede Liquor achieved revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.01%, and a net profit of 443.3 million yuan, down 24.98% [1]. - In the second quarter, revenue was 1.125 billion yuan, a decline of only 3.44%, and net profit increased significantly by 139.48% to 97.17 million yuan [1]. - The stock price of Shede Liquor rose significantly, with a 30.1% increase over the past 11 trading days, outperforming the liquor sector and the broader market [1]. Strategic Adjustments - Shede Liquor has been in a downward adjustment cycle for several years, with four consecutive quarters of declining performance until signs of stabilization appeared in the second quarter of this year [2][4]. - The company has shifted its focus from high-end products to ordinary liquor, which has positively impacted its performance [6][8]. - Revenue from ordinary liquor increased by 15.86% year-on-year to 444.9 million yuan, with its share of total revenue rising by 4.73% [5][6]. Market Position and Competition - The liquor industry is characterized by a "pyramid" competition structure, with top brands like Moutai and Wuliangye dominating the high-end market, while Shede operates in a more competitive mid-range market [7]. - The company's sales expenses have decreased, contributing to improved net profit, as the focus on ordinary liquor has reduced marketing costs [8][9]. Challenges Ahead - Despite the recovery in the second quarter, Shede Liquor faces significant challenges, including pressure from distributors and high inventory levels [8][10]. - The number of distributors has decreased, and the company has shifted to direct sales channels, which may not be sustainable in the long term [8][9]. - Inventory levels have risen, with a significant portion of stock not translating into market competitiveness, indicating potential future challenges [10].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is facing intensified competition and policy adjustments, leading to a decline in the revenue and profit of Luzhou Laojiao in the first half of 2025, failing to meet its growth targets [1][2]. Financial Performance - Luzhou Laojiao reported a revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.650 billion yuan, a decline of 4.3% [1]. - In Q2, the company achieved a revenue of 7.1 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.07 billion yuan, down about 11% [1]. Sales and Pricing - Luzhou Laojiao's mid-to-high-end liquor sales volume reached 24,119.09 tons, an increase of 13.33% year-on-year, but the price per ton decreased by approximately 12.72% to 623,900 yuan [2]. - Other liquor products saw a sales volume of 24,798.63 tons, a decline of 6.89%, with a price per ton of 54,400 yuan, down about 10.82% [2]. Contract Liabilities - As of the end of June, Luzhou Laojiao's contract liabilities amounted to 3.529 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 50%, and a 15% increase compared to the end of Q1 [2]. Strategic Plans - For the second half of the year, the company plans to deepen market penetration by developing long-term strategies for consumer cultivation in lower-tier markets [3]. - The company aims to launch new products, including a 28-degree Guojiao 1573 and a new Luzhou Laojiao Erqu, to optimize its product structure [3]. - Luzhou Laojiao will establish its own e-commerce platform and enhance cooperation with mainstream e-commerce and instant retail platforms to create an integrated online and offline channel network [3].

证券代码：600059 证券简称：古越龙山 编号：临 2025-034 浙江古越龙山绍兴酒股份有限公司 2025 年 1-6 月经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号—行业信息披露》之 《第十二号—酒制造》的相关规定，现将公司 2025 年 1-6 月主要经营数据（未 经审计）公告如下： 一、产品销售情况： 三、区域情况： 注：以上数据口径为酒类业务。 1 单位：万元 渠道类型 本期销售收入 上期销售收入 变动比例 直销（含团购） 20503.12 20328.61 0.86% 批发代理 65600.37 65074.56 0.81% 国际销售 1764.63 1719.79 2.61% 合计 87868.12 87122.96 0.86% 单位：万元 区域情况 本期销售收入 上期销售收入 变动比例 上海地区 17662.15 17475.01 1.07% 浙江地区 25906.33 26901.31 -3.70% 江苏地区 7580.45 734 ...

每经AI快讯，民生证券8月27日发布研报称，给予迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）推荐评级。评级理由主要包 括：1）中高档酒下滑趋势环比加速,逆周期下主战场向省内收缩；2）营收下滑导致规模效应减弱，淡 季逆势增加市场投放叠加管理费用刚性拖累盈利水平。风险提示：省内核心市场竞争加剧影响市场份 额；洞藏培育低于预期导致结构升级不畅；税收等产业政策调整的不确定性风险；食品安全风险等。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——世界首例基因编辑猪肺成功移植人体 对话主要参与者：距离临床应用还有 多远？ 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每日经济新闻 （记者 王晓波） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights that despite the overall pressure on the liquor industry, Shede Liquor achieved a significant profit growth in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery trend amidst a challenging market environment [1] Industry Summary - The liquor industry is currently experiencing sales decline and inventory destocking due to weak consumption [1] - Most companies in the industry are facing profit pressure as a result of these market conditions [1] Company Summary - Shede Liquor reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 97.17 million yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 139.48%, showcasing a strong recovery [1] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q2 2025 was 740 million yuan and 240 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16% and +62% [1] - The company is focusing on building core base markets to secure advantageous profit regions and enhance its ability to withstand risks during economic downturns [1] - Revenue from domestic and foreign markets in Q2 2025 was 290 million yuan and 690 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -21% and +5%, indicating a faster recovery in the foreign market [1] - The company plans to continue developing a multi-brand, full-price, and full-channel base market strategy, particularly strengthening its presence in East China, South China, and Chongqing [1] - Shede Liquor aims to establish a comprehensive marketing operation system and advance digital upgrades to support a multi-brand marketing matrix, supply chain collaboration, and integrated financial management, which will promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] - The company is given a target price of 78.28 yuan based on a 38 times PE valuation for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]