Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market and its earnings performance, particularly focusing on the financial sector and real estate industry Core Points and Arguments 1. The profit growth turning from negative to positive in Q1 2025 is attributed to a low base effect rather than internal improvements, as the A-share market has experienced a historically long period of negative profit growth [1][2] 2. The return on equity (ROE) has been on a downward trend, with the current down cycle lasting approximately 7 to 8 quarters, significantly longer than previous cycles, indicating structural pressures on operational capabilities [2][3] 3. The real estate sector has seen a continuous decline in leverage since 2020, with a 3% drop in financial leverage and about a 1% drop in non-financial real estate, which has directly suppressed ROE recovery [3][4] 4. The improvement in profit growth is primarily due to low accumulation effects, enhanced operational performance, and a temporary stabilization of profit data from the longest negative growth cycle [4][5] 5. The Q1 2025 gross profit margin increased by 0.05 percentage points, while net profit margin improved by 0.06 percentage points, driven by reduced operating costs and expenses [4][5] 6. The fixed asset investment in the financial real estate sector remains low, indicating weak corporate confidence and a lack of willingness to expand production [4][6] 7. The positive profit growth in Q1 2025 is not a true inflection point, as structural differentiation exists among industries, with the financial sector contributing 51.4% to the profit growth, followed by the non-ferrous metals sector at 33.4% [5][6] 8. The intrinsic profit growth for A-shares is expected to materialize no earlier than Q3 of the current year, based on the recovery of corporate balance sheets and the leading indicators of long-term loans [6][7] 9. The leading indicators suggest that the recovery of corporate balance sheets and the increase in long-term loans will positively influence industrial enterprise profits by the end of this year or early next year [7][8] 10. The top five performing sectors in Q1 2025 include agriculture, computer technology, steel, construction materials, and non-ferrous metals, with several sectors expected to maintain over 20% growth [8][9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Investment strategies should focus on domestic certainty and expected growth amidst global geopolitical risks, with recommendations for sectors such as consumer goods, technology, and stable dividend stocks [9][10] 2. The discussion emphasizes the importance of avoiding excessive exposure to U.S. market risks, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in sectors with high volatility [9][10]

前期报告提要与市场聚焦 前期观点回顾：新一轮"波动率"上行周期或开启。国内 5 月 PMI 位于荣枯线下方，其中订单虽略有所改善但价 格依旧承压。"两新"政策对国内经济拉动效用边际递减，国内经济"引擎"的重担或落在政府部门，预计未来政府 仍有望适度扩大发债融资规模，并加大对新、老基建以及促使居民可支配收入相关支出的"投入"。美国"滞胀"风 险或抬升，美债信用风险加大，关税 2.0 谈判不确定性上升。故维持中小盘成长风格"切换"至大盘价值防御的观点。 市场聚焦：1、最新多项美国就业数据释放何种信号？2、为什么说 6 月市场"波动率"或再次回升？3、泛红利 资产的投资框架是什么？泛红利资产如何分类？4、不同红利类型股价表现差异背后的原因是什么？5、当前应该如何 配置和筛选红利资产？ 若出口数据或预期走弱，新一轮"波动率"上行周期可能开启 警惕美国劳动力市场持续走弱风险。美国 3 月和 4 月的合计新增就业人数调低了 9.5 万人；5 月失业率连续 3 个 月维持在 4.2%的高位；初请失业金人数 24.7W，创 2024 年 10 月以来的最高值；5 月"小非农"（统计的私营部门）新 增 3.7 万个就业岗位，创 ...

// 市场要闻 // 1、国家统计局公布3月CPI、PPI数据 4月10日，国家统计局将公布3月CPI、PPI数据。2月，CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.7%；PPI环比下降0.1%，同比下降2.2%。 2、央行：7634亿逆回购等资金本周到期 Wind数据显示，央行公开市场将迎来7634亿元逆回购和1500亿元国库现金定存到期。本周一到周五，逆回购到期金额分别为2452亿元、 649亿元、2299亿元、2234亿元和0亿元。此外，本周一还有1500亿元国库现金定存到期。 4月10日，美国公布3月未季调CPI年率、3月季调后CPI月率、3月季调后核心CPI月率等。3月CPI数据将是美元面临的下一个重大考验， 若数据显示美国经济通胀压力持续，可能支撑美元，因为这将增强美联储对进一步降息的疑虑。 // 板块事项 // 1、2025第十届中国科技金融论坛(年会)在京举行 4月7日，由中国国际经济技术合作促进会、中国商业企业管理协会、国家金融人才服务中心、中国科技金融服务中心等机构联合主办的 第十届中国科技金融论坛(年会)暨第七届中国金融30人学术大会将在北京举行。本届论坛以"汇聚智慧共筑科技金融新未来"为主题， ...