【邀请诺贝尔奖、图灵奖得主、两院院士、各行业专家，请联系五洲名家智库】 《财经》年会2025预测与战略暨2024全球财富管理论坛于12月13日—15日在北京举行。清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长李稻葵应邀出席，并以"名 义GDP回升+重点城市楼市企稳"为主线，给出2025年宏观走势四大判断，为仍处于政策观望期的房地产与资本市场注入确定性。 一、把"5%"写进预期：名义GDP目标首次被量化 李稻葵测算，2024年首三季度名义增速仅4.02%，与7%潜在水平缺口逾2.5个百分点，2025年只要物价回暖、PPI转正，即可推升名义GDP重返5%以上。该数 值当天即被多家券商采入年度策略报告，成为投资时钟的"基准锚"。 二、"北上广转稳"定音：一线城市限购退出获学术背书 他明确预判，北京、上海、广州、成都将于明年大面积取消限购，标志着"市场底"先于"政策底"出现。话音落地，A股地产指数午后放量拉升2.8%，人民币 地产股离岸反弹3.1%，资本市场用真金白银为"转折年"投票。 三、股市盈利锚上移：名义增速→企业利润→估值修复 李稻葵指出，名义GDP每回升1个百分点，上市板块整体盈利可增厚约800亿元，对应全A市盈率扩 ...

Market News - The National Bureau of Statistics will release March CPI and PPI data on April 10, with February figures showing a month-on-month CPI decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, while PPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year [2] - The People's Bank of China has 763.4 billion yuan in reverse repos and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing this week, with specific amounts maturing each day [3] - The U.S. will release March CPI data on April 10, which is expected to be a significant test for the dollar, as persistent inflation could support the dollar and raise concerns about further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] Sector Events - The 10th China Science and Technology Finance Forum will be held in Beijing on April 7, focusing on summarizing reform achievements and innovative paths for the future of technology finance [6] - The 2025 Global 6G Technology and Industry Ecosystem Conference will take place in Nanjing from April 10 to 12, gathering global leaders in the 6G field to discuss innovation and future industry development [7] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths, effective immediately, to safeguard national security and fulfill international obligations [8] - Amazon plans to launch its first batch of 27 satellites for its Project Kuiper on April 9, entering competition with SpaceX's Starlink [9] Company News - HeXin Instruments plans to acquire a 56% stake in Shanghai Liangxi Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [11] - Shengnong Development intends to acquire a 54% stake in Anhui Sun Valley Food Technology Group for 1.126 billion yuan, enhancing its integrated industry chain [12] - Lier Chemical expects a net profit of 145 to 155 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.08% to 223.98% due to rising sales and prices [13] - Stone Technology reported a revenue of 11.945 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.03%, and a net profit of 1.977 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.64% [14] - Chengdi Xiangjiang announced a contract worth 4.452 billion yuan for a data center project with China Mobile, with a cooperation period of seven years plus an uncertain duration [15] Restricted Shares - This week, 24 companies in the A-share market will have a total of 1.735 billion shares released from restrictions, with a total market value of 35.015 billion yuan, an increase of 12.411 billion yuan week-on-week [17] New Stock Calendar - Two new stocks are set to be issued this week, with a total of approximately 42.6 million shares and expected fundraising of 1.161 billion yuan [21] Market Outlook - Dongfang Securities suggests the market may see a turning point post-holiday, with potential for a rebound as policy benefits are released in Q2 [24] - Founder Securities believes A-shares may perform better than global markets due to positive macro policies and recovering domestic demand [25] - Dongguan Securities anticipates a range-bound market in the short term due to global volatility and upcoming earnings reports [26] - Guojin Securities recommends a shift in investment strategy towards large-cap value stocks, focusing on "profit bottom" logic in the upcoming quarter [27]