12月31日，截止午盘，A股三大指数调整，A500ETF南方（159352）微跌0.32%，成交额61.57亿元。资 金流向方面，该基金昨日获得净申购1.34亿元，近五日净流入44亿元，近十日净申购152亿元，近20日 净申购247亿元。数据显示，2024年12月31日A500ETF南方（159352）规模226.42亿元，截止昨日规模 467.73亿元，即一年增长了241亿元，规模暴增106.58%。浙商证券表示，年初处于政策落地与业绩披露 的真空期，市场关注点可能在于来年的政策预期和产业趋势，偏中小盘成长风格的主题投资或将有活跃 表现。2026 年1月成长价值继续均衡，中小市值风格或相对占优。在科技成长共识的基础上，建议边际 增加对顺周期（消费+周期）和金融风格的关注。西部证券认为，短期看，大量的待结汇资金和跨境资 本有望随人民币升值加速结汇/回流，强化人民币升值趋势，中长期看，中国强大的工业实力带来的出 口竞争力是人民币升值的根本动力。跨境资本回流叠加化债政策空间打开，实体现金流量表和资产负债 表有望依次修复，2026 年中国有望迎来繁荣的起点。大类资产继续坚定看好AH 股/国债等人民币资 产。德邦证券 ...

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况 ：上周A股市场整体呈现强劲上涨态势，主要宽基指数普遍收高，其中中证500、创业板50涨幅 居前，分别上涨4.03%和4.07%，显示中小盘成长风格表现活跃。上证指数全周上涨1.88%，沪深300上涨 1.95%，大盘蓝筹稳中有升。相比之下，价值风格的中证红利指数涨幅较小，仅微涨0.55%，凸显市场结 构性分化仍存，整体偏向成长与中小盘主导。 美国经济动能减弱，推动市场押注美联储将在2026年进一步降息，美元指数呈现震荡下行，全周累计下 跌约0.68%，收于98.03。 图表1：全球大类资产收益表现 单位：% 行业板块 ： 上 周万得一级行业多数上扬，材料（+5.85%）、信息技术（+4.36%）领涨，受益于政策支 持与产业景气度提升；日常消费（-0.65%）、通讯服务（-0.34%）小幅回调，大消费板块仍偏弱。市场 风格向高景气制造与科技板块倾斜。 基金发行 ： 上 周合计发行52只，其中股票型基金发行18只，混合型基金发行15只，债券型基金发行13 只，FOF型基金发行6只，总发行份额278.94亿份。 基金表现 ： 上 周万得全基指数上涨1.43%，其中普通股票型基金指数涨2. ...

Core Insights - A significant market signal is emerging as the Zhongzheng 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has surpassed 1 billion yuan in scale, becoming the largest Zhongzheng 2000 index product on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, indicating a major shift in investment tool preferences among funds [1][2] - The historical performance of small-cap growth styles suggests that three core factors drive their dominance: fundamental profit recovery, policy and industry cycle resonance, and a loose liquidity environment [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Current market conditions reflect a clear "historical reappearance" of the three core factors: ongoing growth policies, resilient infrastructure and manufacturing investments, and high export levels supporting profit recovery [2] - The resonance between policy and industry cycles is evident through clear technological innovation policies and various industry events, which are catalyzing new market hotspots [2] - The liquidity environment remains loose, with significant inflows into growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and machinery, as evidenced by the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, a ten-year high [2] Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Zhongzheng 2000 index has seen a nearly 68% increase over the past year, with a current valuation exceeding 146 times PE and 2.8 times PB, indicating high valuation levels [3] - The Zhongzheng 2000 Enhanced ETF has attracted a net inflow of 960 million yuan year-to-date, marking a nearly 4300% increase in shares, making it the fastest-growing ETF in the market this year [3] - Historical data shows that the Zhongzheng 2000 Enhanced ETF has consistently generated positive excess returns since its inception, with excess returns exceeding 6% in the first two quarters of this year [4]

Group 1 - The current derivatives market shows an optimistic outlook for equity assets, with a decline in the VIX of the CSI 500 and an increase in the basis rate [1] - Recent institutional research indicates a rising interest in the "petroleum and petrochemicals," "non-ferrous metals," "steel," "real estate," and "comprehensive finance" sectors [1] - No industry is currently triggering crowded indicator thresholds, suggesting limited adjustment pressure in the overall market [1] Group 2 - In the relative return allocation for July 2025, sectors such as non-ferrous metals and machinery are gaining attention, reflecting a preference for certain cyclical and growth sectors [1] - The Guotai CSI 500 ETF (561350) tracks the CSI 500 Index (000905), which includes the top 500 stocks by average daily market capitalization, excluding the constituents of the CSI 300 [1] - The CSI 500 Index is characterized by its diversified industry distribution and strong market representation, serving as an important benchmark for measuring the overall performance of small-cap growth companies [1]

Group 1 - The Cathay CSI 500 ETF (561350) experienced a daily rebound of 1.1% [1] - The CSI 500 Index, which includes major companies like Tencent and Alibaba, reflects a diverse industry distribution covering consumer discretionary, industrials, and communication services [1] - The CSI A500 Index-related ETFs showed high trading activity, with multiple products exceeding 1 billion yuan in daily trading volume, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities reported that the CSI 500 Index fell by 1.75% over the past week, with a significant PE contraction of 1.35x [2] - The current PE, PB, and PS percentiles for the CSI 500 are between 60% and 95%, while the PCF is in the 80% to 90% range, suggesting attractive long-term valuation compared to the broader market [2] - The consumer staples sector, particularly food and beverage, shows significant valuation recovery potential, with 3-year and 5-year average valuation percentiles at 7.47%/4.49% and 14.08%/10.38% respectively [2]

Group 1 - The three major stock indices experienced a slight rise in the afternoon, with the 500 Quality Growth Index increasing by 0.42% [1] - Among the related constituent stocks, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining rose by 3.83%, Nine Company increased by 2.88%, and Western Mining gained 1.58% [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both the 1-year and 5-year terms by 10 basis points, bringing the rates to 3% and 3.5% respectively, marking the first decline of the year [1] Group 2 - The 500 Quality Growth Index is composed of 100 listed companies selected from the CSI 500 Index, characterized by high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow, focusing on small to mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The index is overweight in sectors such as telecommunications, automotive, and consumer electronics, making it a point of interest for investors [2]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to construction, testing, or evaluation[1][2][3]

Market News - The National Bureau of Statistics will release March CPI and PPI data on April 10, with February figures showing a month-on-month CPI decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, while PPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year [2] - The People's Bank of China has 763.4 billion yuan in reverse repos and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing this week, with specific amounts maturing each day [3] - The U.S. will release March CPI data on April 10, which is expected to be a significant test for the dollar, as persistent inflation could support the dollar and raise concerns about further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] Sector Events - The 10th China Science and Technology Finance Forum will be held in Beijing on April 7, focusing on summarizing reform achievements and innovative paths for the future of technology finance [6] - The 2025 Global 6G Technology and Industry Ecosystem Conference will take place in Nanjing from April 10 to 12, gathering global leaders in the 6G field to discuss innovation and future industry development [7] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths, effective immediately, to safeguard national security and fulfill international obligations [8] - Amazon plans to launch its first batch of 27 satellites for its Project Kuiper on April 9, entering competition with SpaceX's Starlink [9] Company News - HeXin Instruments plans to acquire a 56% stake in Shanghai Liangxi Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [11] - Shengnong Development intends to acquire a 54% stake in Anhui Sun Valley Food Technology Group for 1.126 billion yuan, enhancing its integrated industry chain [12] - Lier Chemical expects a net profit of 145 to 155 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.08% to 223.98% due to rising sales and prices [13] - Stone Technology reported a revenue of 11.945 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.03%, and a net profit of 1.977 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.64% [14] - Chengdi Xiangjiang announced a contract worth 4.452 billion yuan for a data center project with China Mobile, with a cooperation period of seven years plus an uncertain duration [15] Restricted Shares - This week, 24 companies in the A-share market will have a total of 1.735 billion shares released from restrictions, with a total market value of 35.015 billion yuan, an increase of 12.411 billion yuan week-on-week [17] New Stock Calendar - Two new stocks are set to be issued this week, with a total of approximately 42.6 million shares and expected fundraising of 1.161 billion yuan [21] Market Outlook - Dongfang Securities suggests the market may see a turning point post-holiday, with potential for a rebound as policy benefits are released in Q2 [24] - Founder Securities believes A-shares may perform better than global markets due to positive macro policies and recovering domestic demand [25] - Dongguan Securities anticipates a range-bound market in the short term due to global volatility and upcoming earnings reports [26] - Guojin Securities recommends a shift in investment strategy towards large-cap value stocks, focusing on "profit bottom" logic in the upcoming quarter [27]

Sector Analysis - The allocation to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Hong Kong stocks has increased, while the proportion in the main boards has decreased. As of December 31, 2024, the market value of active mixed funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards accounted for approximately 60.73%, a decrease of 4.92% compared to June 30, 2024. The allocation to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, ChiNext, and Hong Kong stocks increased by 0.68%, 1.94%, and 2.26% respectively [10][3][9]. Holding Characteristics - The degree of "herding" remains high, with an increased allocation to small-cap growth stocks. At the end of 2024, the market value of the top 1% of stocks held by active mixed funds accounted for approximately 31.51% of the total stock investment value, showing little change from 31.65% in the mid-year report [12][13][16]. Industry Allocation - Active funds have increased their holdings in the banking, electric power equipment, and electronics sectors while reducing their positions in pharmaceuticals and computers. The top five sectors for active mixed funds as of the end of 2024 were electronics (15.90%), electric power equipment (10.56%), pharmaceuticals (10.26%), food and beverage (6.36%), and automobiles (6.28%) [19][20][21]. Top 20 Fund Companies - The electronics sector is the most heavily weighted industry among the top 20 fund management companies, with 18 out of 20 companies including electronics in their top three sectors. Electric power equipment is the second most frequent sector, appearing in 13 companies' top three [24][25]. Turnover Rate Analysis - The overall turnover rate of active mixed funds has increased. In the second half of 2024, the total turnover rate for various types of active mixed funds was 128.67%, an increase of 16.08% compared to the first half of 2024. The flexible mixed funds had the highest turnover rate at 170.02%, up approximately 29.76% [28][29].