【邀请诺贝尔奖、图灵奖得主、两院院士、各行业专家，请联系五洲名家智库】 《财经》年会2025预测与战略暨2024全球财富管理论坛于12月13日—15日在北京举行。清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长李稻葵应邀出席，并以"名 义GDP回升+重点城市楼市企稳"为主线，给出2025年宏观走势四大判断，为仍处于政策观望期的房地产与资本市场注入确定性。 一、把"5%"写进预期：名义GDP目标首次被量化 李稻葵测算，2024年首三季度名义增速仅4.02%，与7%潜在水平缺口逾2.5个百分点，2025年只要物价回暖、PPI转正，即可推升名义GDP重返5%以上。该数 值当天即被多家券商采入年度策略报告，成为投资时钟的"基准锚"。 二、"北上广转稳"定音：一线城市限购退出获学术背书 他明确预判，北京、上海、广州、成都将于明年大面积取消限购，标志着"市场底"先于"政策底"出现。话音落地，A股地产指数午后放量拉升2.8%，人民币 地产股离岸反弹3.1%，资本市场用真金白银为"转折年"投票。 三、股市盈利锚上移：名义增速→企业利润→估值修复 李稻葵指出，名义GDP每回升1个百分点，上市板块整体盈利可增厚约800亿元，对应全A市盈率扩 ...

这一轮楼市的低迷，背后有多重因素交织。城镇化进程的放缓，使得年均新增城镇人口从过去的2000万锐减至1000万。更值得关注的是，作为购房主力军的 关键年龄段（25-44岁），其人口规模相较于2015年已大幅缩减了6000万。与此同时，社会层面也显露出"低欲望"的迹象：结婚登记人数预计跌破500万大 关，生育率更是低至1.09，已低于日本。 那么，为何在经历了四年之久的深度调整后，市场会以如此迅猛的势头做出反应？政策无疑是这一轮市场转折的关键催化剂。2025年9月，中国房地产市场 迎来了一系列力度空前、旨在提振市场的"救市"新政。从北京、上海等一线城市率先松绑限购，到提升公积金贷款额度、取消商业贷款利率的差异化政策， 再到大力推进城中村改造和推广"好房子"标准，一系列组合拳密集出台，迅速改变了市场预期。 值得注意的是，一线城市在政策调整上采取了更加精细化的策略。北京和上海打破了以往"一刀切"的模式，实施"环线差异化策略"。北京在五环外、上海在 外环外全面取消了购房套数限制，并且非户籍居民的社保缴纳年限要求也从过去的两年大幅缩减至一年。 对于当前市场的快速升温，许多人不禁发问：这究竟是昙花一现的反弹，还是市场真正 ...

Group 1 - At the end of Q1, Ningde Times regained its position as the largest heavy stock among public funds, while Zhifei Biology was highly favored by public funds [1][2] - Public funds saw a net subscription of 7414.68 billion units in Q1, with significant net subscriptions in money market, bond, index, and stock funds, while mixed funds experienced a net redemption of approximately 1114.55 billion units [2] - The overall stock position of public funds showed a slight decrease, with an average stock position of 71.42% at the end of Q1, down 1.85 percentage points from the end of 2021 [2] Group 2 - Top fund managers adjusted their stock positions in response to the complex market in Q1, with a focus on increasing allocations in sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology while reducing exposure in finance [3][4] - The concentration of holdings among public funds increased, with a concentration ratio of 57.29% at the end of Q1, compared to 55.88% at the end of 2021 [2] - Fund managers expressed the need for patience and confidence in the market, suggesting that the "policy bottom" and "market bottom" may have synchronized, but a V-shaped recovery is unlikely [5] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are being sought in two categories: industries with sustained positive outlooks such as new energy, photovoltaics, and military industry, and industries in a recovery phase like breeding, catering, tourism, media, and real estate [6] - Fund managers are maintaining a focus on "consumption growth + technology growth" in their portfolio configurations for the upcoming market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant wave of stock buybacks and shareholder increases in 2023, reflecting confidence in the market and signaling economic recovery [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Buybacks - Nearly 500 companies have announced buyback plans in 2023, with a total proposed buyback amount exceeding 100 billion yuan, and over 1,000 companies have completed buybacks [1][3]. - In October alone, 107 companies announced buyback plans with a total proposed amount of 22.79 billion yuan [3]. - Notable companies like Gree Electric and Contemporary Amperex Technology have proposed buybacks ranging from 1.5 billion to 3 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Shareholder Increases - Over 460 companies have announced shareholder increase plans in 2023, with a total proposed increase amount exceeding 60 billion yuan [1][5]. - Companies such as Longi Green Energy and Huahai Pharmaceutical have also disclosed plans for significant shareholder increases [4][5]. - Some companies have multiple increase plans, indicating ongoing confidence from management [5]. Group 3: Market Impact - Experts believe that the buyback and increase trends can boost market confidence and indicate that companies perceive their stock as undervalued [7]. - The buyback activity is seen as a counter-cyclical capital operation that can support stock prices and improve capital structure [7]. - The recent trends in buybacks and increases are viewed as positive signals for economic recovery and market expectations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has rebounded significantly, surpassing 70,000 yuan, with mainstream spot prices reaching 66,000 to 68,000 yuan, indicating a strong recovery in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The futures contract structure has changed, leading to a strong back structure and increasing the elasticity of lithium carbonate prices, which has fostered a rebound sentiment [1]. - Recent news regarding the re-approval of mining licenses for lithium mines in Jiangxi has sparked market interest, despite having minimal impact on production [2]. - Major domestic lithium carbonate companies have announced temporary halts in sales, further boosting market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Chile's lithium carbonate export volume has remained low for two consecutive months due to seasonal factors, while the downstream lithium battery market shows resilience [2]. - Australian lithium mine shipments have decreased by over 20% month-on-month, and domestic lithium mine inventories have declined since the end of June [2]. - The interference from the Malian government has affected the shipment of some Chinese-funded lithium mines, contributing to the tightening supply [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The production and sales growth of new energy vehicles in the first half of 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, with the energy storage sector remaining robust despite low raw material prices [4]. - The domestic lithium carbonate market is anticipated to maintain a strong supply and demand dynamic in the second half of the year, with a gradual recovery in market sentiment [5]. - The "market bottom" is likely to appear before the second quarter of 2026, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the industry [5].

Group 1 - The core concept of market bottom is defined as a turning point in a declining market where prices have fallen to a level that signals the beginning of a new upward trend, indicating a fundamental shift from bearish to bullish market forces [3] - Understanding market bottom helps investors identify the right timing for investment during market fluctuations [3] Group 2 - Key characteristics of market bottom include extreme shrinkage in trading volume, which reflects a decline in investor confidence and market activity, often signaling an impending market reversal [4] - Market sentiment is typically extremely pessimistic at the bottom, with investors feeling hopeless and withdrawing from the market, which can serve as a crucial signal for market recovery [5] - Technical indicators showing divergence, such as RSI or MACD, can indicate weakening downward momentum, suggesting that a market bottom may be near [6] - Valuation metrics like PE and PB ratios are often at historical lows during market bottoms, indicating attractive buying opportunities for investors [7] - A significant number of stocks trading below their net asset value (PB < 1) can signal a market bottom, as seen in previous market downturns [8] - The relative attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds can be assessed through the stock-bond yield spread, with high spreads indicating better stock investment opportunities [9][10] - A drastic decline in the number of new investors or account openings often accompanies market bottoms, reflecting a lack of market participation and sentiment [11] - Even traditionally resilient sectors and leading stocks may experience declines near market bottoms, indicating that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion [12] Group 3 - Judging market bottoms requires a comprehensive analysis of multiple market characteristics, including volume, sentiment, technical indicators, and valuation levels [13] - Historical data and experiences can provide valuable insights for current market bottom assessments, although each market cycle has unique factors [14] - Monitoring macroeconomic conditions and policy changes is crucial, as positive signs in these areas can support market recovery [15] Group 4 - Investment strategies during market bottoms include phased buying and diversification to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [16] - Focusing on high-quality assets that may be undervalued during downturns can yield significant returns when the market rebounds [17] - Utilizing technical analysis tools can help investors identify reversal signals and optimal buying or selling points [18] - Maintaining patience and confidence is essential for investors to navigate the psychological pressures of market bottoms and avoid panic selling [19] Group 5 - Identifying market bottoms is a complex task that requires a multifaceted approach, with a focus on market dynamics and macroeconomic changes [20]

Market Overview - The recent trading volume in the A-share market has decreased significantly, nearly 40% from the peak in April, indicating a lack of market momentum [3] - There are two positive signals: foreign institutions have upgraded China's sovereign credit rating while downgrading the US rating, suggesting potential foreign investment in A-shares [3] - Regulatory bodies are encouraging financial institutions to act as stabilizers, which may lead to support from major financial sectors like brokerage and insurance, as their valuations are approaching historical lows [3] Pre-Festival Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing a "pre-festival syndrome," where investors are cautious due to potential risks during the holiday, leading to profit-taking [3] - Historical data shows a 70% probability of market adjustments in the two trading days before the festival and the week after, known as the "Duanwu effect" [4] - However, current policy measures, including recent interest rate cuts, may disrupt this historical trend, providing a more favorable environment for investors [4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, maintaining liquidity to respond to unexpected market changes [4] - Defensive sectors such as banking, energy, and public utilities are recommended for their stability and dividend potential, providing a safety net during market volatility [4] - Investors should look for right-side signals, such as trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion or brokerage sector trading volume surpassing 5%, as indicators of market strength [4] Market Positioning - The current market is at a critical point of "low volume and low price," suggesting a potential convergence of policy and market bottoms after the festival [4] - Historical experience indicates that market corrections often present investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of long-term commitment in investing [4]

Group 1 - The overall market is characterized by "index stability while individual stocks suffer," with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 3400 points and over 3600 stocks declining, indicating a lack of broad market strength [3] - Northbound capital experienced a net outflow of nearly 8 billion, marking a seven-month high, suggesting foreign investors are cautious amid rising prices [3] - The recent favorable policies in technology and finance are being overshadowed by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, creating a challenging environment for market stability [4] Group 2 - There is significant sector rotation, with shipping and port stocks showing strong performance, while gold stocks surged due to heightened risk aversion, and pharmaceutical stocks, particularly innovative drugs, stood out [5] - The market is witnessing a shift from previously high-performing sectors like AI to lower-performing sectors such as pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics, indicating a strategy of buying on dips [5] Group 3 - Recommended strategies include maintaining proper position management, focusing on new energy and pharmaceutical sectors supported by policies, and utilizing defensive sectors like gold and coal for hedging [6] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of volume in confirming market trends, with a target volume of 1.3 trillion needed to break through the 3400-point barrier [4][6]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a notable rise, driven significantly by the strong performance of brokerage stocks, which played a crucial role in reviving market sentiment [1][3] - Various sectors such as cross-border e-commerce, textile and apparel, digital reading, and new urbanization showed good performance, while the six major banks remained relatively weak [1][3] - The Central Finance decided to issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of government bonds in Q4 2023, aimed at supporting disaster recovery and enhancing the country's disaster resilience capabilities [3] Group 2 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 3.98%, with individual stocks in the new energy vehicle sector showing significant gains, including XPeng Motors up 10.28% and Li Auto up 7.11% [3] - The trading volume of the HuShen 300 ETF saw a substantial increase, with a peak transaction amount of 8.67 billion yuan in the last 15 minutes of trading [3] - The establishment of a policy bottom is increasingly evident, although it remains to be seen whether a market bottom has been clearly defined [3]

Market Performance - The A-share market continued its strong performance, with all three major indices closing higher: Shanghai Composite up 0.12%, Shenzhen Composite up 1.61%, and ChiNext up 2.48% [1] - Trading volume surpassed 1 trillion yuan for the first time in two months, indicating increased market activity [1] Sector Analysis - Semiconductor and chip stocks showed strong performance throughout the day, while pharmaceutical stocks, including CRO, innovative drugs, and weight-loss drugs, led the gains [1] - Conversely, bank stocks faced adjustments, with state-owned banks experiencing a significant decline of 2.84% [1] Policy Impact - Recent policy measures, including the halving of stamp duty, increased holdings in major banks, and the issuance of special treasury bonds, are contributing to market stability and potential growth [3] - The Ministry of Finance's announcement to implement a three-year long-cycle assessment for state-owned commercial insurance companies is expected to enhance the operational space and utilization of insurance funds, benefiting sectors such as banking, real estate, and utilities [3] Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to enter a narrow trading range after the Shanghai Composite index recovers above 3000 points, with a low probability of significant pullbacks [3] - The formation of a policy bottom suggests a more optimistic short-term outlook, with opportunities for strategic positioning in the market [3]