研究员：赵丽/谷馨瑜/孙梦琪/蔡涵 基于快于预期的成本费用端优化，我们上调2025/26 年经调整净利润6%/9%至19.3/22.0 亿元，并基于 SOTP 估值上调未来12 个月目标价至240 港元（原184 港元），其中1）核心业务贡献223 港元，基于优 质内容及版权公司平均20 倍年市盈率，以及2025-26 年平均经调整净利润20.1 亿元，2）现金贡献17港 元，基于30%折价。网易云音乐付费墙及ARPPU 仍有较大运营空间，看好长期会员收入增长潜力，维 持买入。 1 季度毛利率优化超预期。2025 年1 季度网易云音乐公布收入18.6 亿元（人民币，下同），同比降 8%，较2024 年下半年2%的降幅扩大，主要因社交娱乐收入下降。毛利率36.7%，同比提升3.7 个百分 点，较2024 年下半年提升4.4 个百分点，好于我们/市场预期，受益于会员订阅收入增长，数专业务收 入增加，及直播分成优化。 机构：交银国际 2025 年展望：1）在线音乐：我们看好会员订阅延续稳健增势，预计在线音乐收入同比增15%，其中会 员订阅收入或增16%，仍受会员规模扩张拉动，预计ARPPU 短期基本持稳，高端会员增 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.13 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.485 billion, up 0.46% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, revenue declined to 3.6 billion, down 4.13%, and net profit fell to 395 million, down 10.01% [1][2]. Revenue Performance - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows mixed performance across product categories: - Noodle products: -3.14% - Frozen prepared foods: +11.41% - Dish products: +10.76% - Agricultural products: -11.74% - Snack foods: -80.44% - Other businesses: -0.96% [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue changes were as follows: - Frozen noodle products: +3.17% - Prepared dishes: -2.4% - Dish products: -12.48% - Agricultural products: -4.31% - Other businesses: -41.42% [2] Channel Performance - For 2024, revenue by channel showed: - Distribution: +8.91% - Supermarkets: -2.35% - Direct sales: -4.54% - E-commerce: -2.29% - New retail: +32.97% [2] - In Q1 2025, channel performance was: - Distribution: -3.94% - Supermarkets: -6.46% - Direct sales: -6.5% - E-commerce: -14.45% - New retail: +22.26% [2] Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.71 percentage points to 9.82%, with a gross margin increase of 0.09 percentage points to 23.3%. The operating expense ratio rose by 0.67 percentage points to 10.03% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin fell by 0.72 percentage points to 10.96%, with a gross margin decline of 3.23 percentage points to 23.32%. The operating expense ratio decreased by 0.77 percentage points to 9.9% [3]. Future Outlook - The company is enhancing its supply chain management to mitigate cost fluctuations and expects improvements in revenue from new products and acquisitions. - Projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 1.53 billion and 1.71 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.21 and 5.84, and PE ratios of 14 and 13 [4].