Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the polyolefin industry. 2. Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the macro - driven growth has subsided, and it is in the off - season of agricultural film demand with weak downstream demand. For PP, the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and the industrial inventory is at a neutral level [4][7]. - The main influencing factors for LLDPE and PP include cost support on the positive side and weak demand on the negative side. The main logic is the interaction between cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6][9]. 3. Summary by Categories LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term anti - involution sentiment - driven increase has subsided, and oil prices have also fallen. It is the off - season for agricultural films, and the demand for other films is flat, with many downstream enterprises shutting down for maintenance. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7340 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 23, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, considering the subsiding of macro - driven growth, off - season demand, and weak downstream demand [4]. - **Factors**: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [6]. PP - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a contraction in the manufacturing industry. It is the off - season for downstream demand, and affected by high temperature and heavy rain in summer, the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 52, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.7%, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 tons (-1.6), showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, due to the subsiding of macro - driven growth and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Factors**: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a significant increase of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with an increase of 1.4% in 2024 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: The production capacity has also been growing from 2018 to 2024, with an expected increase of 11.0% in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% in 2024 [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures market of polyolefins opened low and fluctuated upwards. The prices of plastics and PP increased, but the market trading atmosphere changed little. The downstream demand remained weak, and the prices of polypropylene and plastics still faced upward resistance. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's push to adjust the structure and optimize the supply of key petrochemical industries had limited substantial impact on the polypropylene and plastics industry in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Plastic 2601 opened at 7332 yuan/ton, closed at 7436 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (0.90%); Plastic 2605 opened at 7340 yuan/ton, closed at 7427 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton (0.94%); Plastic 2509 opened at 7288 yuan/ton, closed at 7385 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (0.89%). PP2601 opened at 7110 yuan/ton, closed at 7195 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (0.73%); PP2605 opened at 7115 yuan/ton, closed at 7180 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (0.60%); PP2509 opened at 7101 yuan/ton, closed at 7181 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton (0.77%) [3]. - The downstream agricultural film industry was at its lowest operating level of the year, and there were no obvious signs of improvement in the operating rates of pipes and plastic weaving industries [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.96%) from the previous working day, compared with 710,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - The PE market prices showed mixed trends. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 7180 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton, and in South China 7330 - 7600 yuan/ton [5]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6250 - 6300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day [5]. - The PP market showed a warm - up adjustment, with some prices rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The actual demand of downstream factories for raw materials was difficult to increase, and they were cautious in purchasing [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data details were not described in the text [7][14][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to show a volatile trend today. The LLDPE and PP markets are influenced by both positive factors such as cost support and macro - policy promotion for the petrochemical industry's steady growth, and negative factors like weak demand [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, back above the critical point. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote stable growth in key industries including the petrochemical industry. The downstream demand is weak overall, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film showing slight improvement. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 7240 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 128, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.7%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with the agricultural film in the off - season and weak downstream demand, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the stable growth of the petrochemical industry [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, back above the critical point. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 18, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 tons (-1.5), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the stable growth of the petrochemical industry [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [8]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery goods is 7240 (+20), the price of the 09 contract is 7368 (+78), the basis is - 128 (-58), the warehouse receipt is 5822 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 58.7 tons, and the PE social inventory is 558.22 tons [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery goods is 7150 (+0), the price of the 09 contract is 7168 (+77), the basis is - 18 (-77), the warehouse receipt is 12242 (+2169), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 56.6 tons, and the PP social inventory is 272.14 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].