研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/23 | 63.41 | 67.63 | 69.81 | - | 0.66 | -4.22 | 0.60 | 199.91 | 16.33 | 232.80 | 30.15 | | 2025/09/24 | 64.99 | 69.31 | 70.24 | - | 0.85 | -4.32 | 0.49 | 201.88 | 15.48 | 237.72 | 30.53 | | 2025/09/25 | 64.98 | 69.42 | 70.19 | - | 0.84 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia's push for rapid production increase within OPEC+ aims to regain market share in the short term and solidify its dominance in the long term [2][3] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating the unwinding of a 2.17 million barrels per day cut that began in April [2] - The new production targets could raise OPEC+'s output by 2.5 million barrels per day this year, although many member countries are already producing at or above their quotas [2] - Kazakhstan's production has been a concern, with June output reaching 1.88 million barrels per day, significantly exceeding the August target of 1.53 million barrels per day [2] Group 2: Saudi Arabia's Production Capacity - Saudi Arabia's oil production share has decreased from an average of 13% over the past 30 years to an estimated 11% in 2024 [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that oil and gas revenues will account for 22.3% of Saudi GDP in 2024, making the maintenance of its global dominance crucial [3] - Saudi Arabia has approximately 3 million barrels per day of spare capacity that can be activated within 90 days, positioning it as the only OPEC+ member capable of significantly increasing production in the coming quarters [3] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Impact - The additional production from OPEC+ is expected to further depress benchmark crude prices, with Brent crude already down 15% to below $70 per barrel this year [4] - Lower oil prices may benefit Saudi Arabia as both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers are likely to cut investments, while Saudi Arabia's ample spare capacity and low production costs allow it to meet future demand more easily [5] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a decline in U.S. crude production from a peak of 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2024 to 13.3 million barrels per day by Q4 2026, marking the first decrease after a previous production surge [5] Group 4: Long-term Strategy - Saudi Arabia's strategy represents a long-term gamble, as the impact of its actions on the industry will take time to manifest, particularly in terms of new offshore oil field investments [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts global oil supply will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day by 2025, primarily from non-OPEC+ countries, which necessitates Saudi action to maintain its market position [6] - Current market conditions, characterized by weak oil prices and uncertainty in global demand during the energy transition, discourage significant investments in new capacity, making Saudi Arabia's strategy potentially effective in the long run [6]

据外媒报道，五位了解相关会谈的消息人士称，沙特官员正在通知盟友和行业专家，表示沙特不愿通过 进一步减产来支撑石油市场，并且能够应对长期的低油价局面。 沙特这一潜在的政策转变或许意味着其将走向增加产量并扩大市场份额的方向，这标志着OPEC+领导 者在通过大幅减产来平衡市场五年之后的一个重大转变。该联盟的减产举措支撑了油价，反过来又增加 了许多石油生产国所依赖的石油出口收入。 消息人士称，沙特对哈萨克斯坦和伊拉克的产量超过其OPEC +目标感到愤怒。该联盟设定这些目标是 为了维持石油市场的供需平衡。 他们表示，在近几个月推动成员国遵守产量目标并弥补供应过剩之后，沮丧的沙特正在改变策略。 此前，沙特推动OPEC+在5月份进行超预期的增产，这一决定导致油价跌破每桶60美元，降至四年低 点。 对于依赖石油出口来为其经济提供资金的产油国来说，油价下跌是个坏消息。尽管像沙特这样的产油国 生产成本非常低，但它们需要更高的油价来支付政府开支。当油价下跌时，许多大型石油生产国面临削 减预算的压力。 而沙特似乎正在向盟友和专家通报，他们已准备好应对这种情况。 石油交易商也预计，沙特将引导OPEC+下周达成再次增加供应的协议，因为沙 ...