格隆汇1月5日｜花旗研究的分析师在报告中指出，由于技术限制和缺乏稳定的投资环境，在马杜罗被免 职后，委内瑞拉石油产量的大幅增加可能需要"数年而非数月"的时间。分析师表示，这一事态发展最终 可能对石油市场平衡构成利空，潜在的供应增量预计将在2027/28年显现。但在短期内，"在美方与委内 瑞拉现任领导层达成协议之前，全球市场可能会持续失去委内瑞拉的石油供应，这是一个净利好因 素。"花旗补充称，石油供应风险依然很高，足以在未来几周支撑布伦特原油维持在每桶60美元上方。 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC Secretary General Al Ghais stated that OPEC does not expect an oil supply surplus in 2026 and criticized media misinterpretations of its monthly oil market report [2] Group 1: OPEC's Market Predictions - OPEC's report indicates that the oil market is expected to balance next year, correcting earlier predictions of a supply shortage, which led to a sell-off in the oil market and a decline in international benchmark oil prices [2] - Non-OPEC oil-producing countries are projected to increase oil supply by 1.3 million barrels per day by 2026, while oil demand is expected to grow by 1.6 million barrels per day, reaching a total demand of 106.2 million barrels per day [2] Group 2: Media and Analyst Reactions - Al Ghais emphasized that the information in OPEC's monthly report is straightforward and that media misreporting is to blame for the distorted narrative regarding market surplus [2] - A recent survey of 25 traders and analysts indicated that most expect OPEC to continue increasing production monthly, with only a few anticipating a longer pause or a reversal of current production policies [3] - Analysts suggest that OPEC+ is unlikely to cut production in 2026, as the organization is focused on regaining market share [3]

国际能源署（IEA）表示，美国对俄罗斯实施的制裁对俄罗斯原油产量前景存在"可观的下行风险"，但 在看到更多执行细节之前，该机构暂不估计具体影响。 美国上个月对莫斯科实施了有史以来最严厉的能源制裁，将俄罗斯两大石油生产商——国有的俄罗斯石 油公司（Rosneft PJSC）和私营的卢克石油公司（Lukoil PJSC）列入黑名单。这些限制旨在减少克里姆 林宫的出口收入，促使普京参与结束俄乌冲突的谈判。 IEA在周四发布的月度石油市场报告中表示，此举"可能对全球石油市场产生迄今为止最深远的影 响"。"尽管目前俄罗斯的原油流量基本保持不变，但俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司全球价值链的解体 所带来的风险已经超出俄罗斯国界。" 目前，这家总部位于巴黎的机构维持对俄罗斯本季度和明年平均日产"930万桶"原油的估计。IEA表示 将保持这一预期"直到有关执行细节和潜在规避措施更加明朗"。 俄罗斯原油价格下降对克里姆林宫来说是一个重大问题，因为俄罗斯约"四分之一"的总收入依赖于石油 和天然气税收。莫斯科政府已经预计，2025年来自该行业的税收将是自疫情以来的最低水平。 由于普京没有显示出削减军事支出的意图，预计俄罗斯今年的预算赤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses skepticism surrounding the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of a looming oil glut, highlighting discrepancies between projected inventory builds and actual data observed in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Inventory Discrepancies - The IEA projects an inventory build of 800 million barrels in 2023 and 1,200 million barrels in 2024, yet actual inventory data does not reflect this increase [1][3]. - Observed inventory builds in the first half of the year were only 0.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), significantly lower than the expected 1.5 mb/d [5][10]. - The IEA's forecasts may be biased due to human error, leading to potential underestimations of demand outside member countries [4][10]. Group 2: Chinese Inventory Dynamics - Chinese inventories reportedly grew by 110 million barrels from April to August 2023, indicating a significant increase in strategic oil stockpiling [7][13]. - The behavior of government inventory holders, such as China, differs from commercial holders, as they tend to buy and hold oil as a hedge against supply disruptions [12][14]. - The motivations behind China's strategic stockpiling include increasing imports, potential sanctions on Russian oil, and fears of political disputes leading to embargoes [13][15]. Group 3: Future Market Implications - The market surplus is projected to exceed 2 mb/d for 2026, suggesting significant pressure on oil prices in the coming months [10][15]. - If China's strategic purchases cease, it could lead to a rapid shift in market balance, potentially resulting in an inventory surge [14][15]. - A strong global economy and tighter sanctions against oil-producing countries could lead to a market balance that is much tighter than the IEA's projections [15].

Core Insights - The current oil market remains balanced according to Shell's CEO [1] - GPS interference in the Strait of Hormuz poses challenges, leading Shell to exercise caution in shipping operations in the region [1] Company Summary - Shell is maintaining a cautious approach to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz due to GPS interference challenges [1] Industry Summary - The oil market is currently in a state of balance, indicating stable supply and demand dynamics [1]

美国交易所交易产品提供商Leverage Shares公司高级研究分析师Violeta Todorova认为，石油市场目前看起来平衡，欧佩克+8个产油国在7月份继续以41.1万 桶／日的节奏退出自愿减产是当前环境下的一个合理行动。但这并非没有风险。 新华财经纽约5月30日电（记者刘亚南）由于市场担忧欧佩克+机制下多个产油国在7月份继续加快退出自愿减产，国际油价在隔夜市场上涨，30日早间由 涨转跌，盘中弱势盘整，尾盘跌幅收窄，收盘时国际油价均下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌0.15美元，收于每桶60.79美元，跌幅为0.25%；7月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌 0.25美元，收于每桶63.90美元，跌幅为0.39%。 据路透社报道，欧佩克+机制下的8个产油国可能在31日召开的会议上讨论把7月原油供应量提高超过41.1万桶／日。这一消息刺激油价在当日早间由涨转 跌。 这些产油国在5月和6月原油供应量已经把原油供应量增幅提高至此前计划上调量的3倍，至41.1万桶。 市场研究机构KPLER美洲领衔石油分析师马特·史密斯（Matt Smith)说，看起来欧佩克+的计划对石油市场尤其 ...

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia is unwilling to further cut oil supply to support the market and is prepared to cope with long-term low oil prices, indicating a potential shift towards increasing production and expanding market share [1] Group 1: Saudi Arabia's Oil Policy - Saudi officials are communicating to allies and industry experts that they do not intend to reduce supply further [1] - This shift in policy marks a significant change for Saudi Arabia, which has historically engaged in deep production cuts to balance the market as a leader of the OPEC+ group [1] - The previous production cuts have supported oil prices, which many oil-producing countries rely on for export revenue [1] Group 2: Response to Other OPEC+ Members - Saudi Arabia is reportedly frustrated with Kazakhstan and Iraq for exceeding their OPEC+ production targets [1] - The country is changing its strategy after pushing member countries to adhere to these targets and address recent supply surpluses [1]