Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices will see a "three consecutive increases" starting from July 1, 2025, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton respectively [1] - The price adjustment translates to an increase of 0.18 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.19 yuan per liter for 0 diesel, resulting in an additional cost of approximately 9 yuan for filling a standard 50L car tank [1] - This marks the 13th price adjustment of the year, with the pattern showing "six increases, five decreases, and two suspensions" [1] Group 2 - International oil prices experienced significant fluctuations during the adjustment period, influenced by the evolving situation in the Middle East, with Brent crude futures rising from around $73 per barrel to nearly $79, then quickly falling below $68 [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day for the year, with an expected surplus of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day [2] - Seasonal demand growth in the Northern Hemisphere and low crude oil inventories are providing some support for oil prices, with U.S. refinery utilization rates reaching a year-to-date high of 94.7% as of June 20 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices effective July 1, 2025, due to recent international oil price fluctuations, marking the sixth price hike of the year [1][2]. Price Adjustments - Gasoline and diesel prices will rise by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, leading to an increase of 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [1]. - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan [1]. - This price adjustment results in a cumulative increase of 560 yuan per ton for gasoline and 540 yuan per ton for diesel since June 4, 2023 [1]. International Oil Price Trends - The adjustment is based on international oil price trends, which have shown volatility, with Brent crude oil prices fluctuating from around $73 per barrel to nearly $79, then dropping below $68 [2]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day for the year, with an expected surplus of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day [2]. - Seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere and low crude oil inventories are providing some support for international oil prices [2]. Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to monitor geopolitical developments and changes in the global trade environment [3]. - Analysts predict that international oil prices may continue to experience fluctuations due to the seasonal peak in U.S. demand [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will increase due to fluctuations in international oil prices, with specific price adjustments effective from July 1 [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - From July 1, gasoline and diesel prices will rise by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to an increase of 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [1] - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan [1] Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with Brent crude oil futures rising from around $73 per barrel to nearly $79, before quickly dropping below $68 [3] - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, has contributed to the decline in oil prices [3] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day for the year, with an oversupply of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for international oil prices is expected to be weak, with OPEC+ likely to continue increasing production to capture market share [6] - The likelihood of disruptions to energy infrastructure and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is considered low, suggesting stable oil supply and transportation [6]

Group 1 - UBS Group anticipates a seasonal increase in global oil demand in the coming months due to the onset of the driving season in the United States and rising temperatures in the Middle East [1]