Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that there will be no adjustment to domestic fuel prices due to insufficient price changes in the international oil market, marking the sixth time prices have been left unchanged since September 9, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - International oil prices have shown a trend of rising and then falling, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, US-China trade negotiations, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a loose supply-demand balance [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in response to a slowing US economy and weak employment, contributed to the decline in oil prices [1] - Seasonal demand for crude oil has decreased following the summer travel peak, compounded by a significant increase in US distillate oil inventories, which rose by 4 million barrels, raising concerns about market demand [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The NDRC's price monitoring center anticipates that international oil prices will continue to fluctuate, with a focus on OPEC+'s policy adjustments and actual production levels of member countries [2] - Analysts suggest that while the accumulation of oil inventories may exert downward pressure on international oil prices, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and disturbances in Europe may provide some support, leading to a generally weak market outlook [2]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that there will be no adjustment to domestic fuel prices as of July 29, 2025, due to the average price change being less than 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous period [1] - This marks the 15th pricing window for refined oil this year, with the pricing pattern showing "six increases, six decreases, and three pauses" [1] - The Brent crude oil futures price has fluctuated between $68 and $70 per barrel during this pricing cycle, influenced by various factors including US tariff negotiations and sanctions on Russian oil [1] Industry Analysis - The summer travel season is providing support for the oil market, but uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies are expected to increase volatility in international oil prices [2] - Analysts suggest that the oil market currently lacks core driving factors, with prices expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term due to improved macroeconomic sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will increase due to fluctuations in international oil prices, with specific price adjustments effective from July 1 [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - From July 1, gasoline and diesel prices will rise by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to an increase of 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [1] - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan [1] Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with Brent crude oil futures rising from around $73 per barrel to nearly $79, before quickly dropping below $68 [3] - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, has contributed to the decline in oil prices [3] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day for the year, with an oversupply of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for international oil prices is expected to be weak, with OPEC+ likely to continue increasing production to capture market share [6] - The likelihood of disruptions to energy infrastructure and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is considered low, suggesting stable oil supply and transportation [6]