Core Viewpoint - BP expects global oil demand to grow until 2030, which is five years later than its previous forecast, highlighting a slowdown in efforts to enhance energy efficiency [1] Group 1 - BP's revised forecast indicates a longer timeline for growth in global oil demand, now projected to extend to 2030 [1] - The company emphasizes that the delay in the forecast is due to slowed efforts in increasing energy efficiency [1]

Group 1 - OPEC's annual report indicates a long-term view of increasing global oil demand, projecting an increase from 103.7 million barrels per day last year to 113.3 million barrels per day by 2030, and approaching 123 million barrels per day by 2050 [1] - Oil is expected to remain a key player in meeting energy needs, with OPEC forecasting that it will account for about 30% of the global energy mix by 2050, and combined with natural gas, this figure will exceed 50% [1] - OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated that there are currently no signs of peak oil demand, contrasting with more conservative forecasts from other organizations like the IEA and S&P Global [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ representatives are considering pausing production adjustments in October after an increase in September, with concerns that further increases could lead to lower oil prices [2] - Morgan Stanley and Citigroup predict that oil prices may drop to around $60 per barrel due to increasing supply surplus [2]

周四，据知情代表透露，OPEC+正讨论在下次月度增产之后，从10月起暂停进一步增产。美、布两油 闻讯短线拉升上涨0.8美元，随后迅速回落。 尽管相关讨论尚处于初期阶段，但沙特及其盟友已初步计划在9月完成约220万桶/日的供应恢复计划， 预计9月将增产55万桶/日。 OPEC+从4月开始解除217万桶/日的减产计划，当月增产13.8万桶/日；5月、6月、7月及本月（8月）每 月分别增产41.1万桶/日。随着OPEC+第一阶段大规模增产接近尾声，市场的注意力正转向接下来会发 生什么。 OPEC+的8个主要成员国定于8月3日举行视频会议，敲定9月的计划。 OPEC下调未来四年全球石油需求预测，但坚称峰值尚未到来 周四，OPEC还发布了最新《2025年世界石油展望》，下调未来四年的全球石油需求预测，但基于发展 中国家消费增长，该组织上调了长期需求预期，并表示"石油需求峰值尚未到来"。 由OPEC与俄罗斯等盟友组成的OPEC+集团，在多年减产支撑市场后，正通过增产夺回市场份额。而中 期需求下调可能使其更难解除将于2026年底到期的其他减产措施。 OPEC在报告中称，今年全球石油需求平均为1.05亿桶/日，2026年将增 ...

IEA预警全球石油需求2029年触顶 与欧佩克预测尖锐对立 金十数据6月17日讯，国际能源署公布月度能源报告，其中提到， 鉴于美国汽油价格走低且电动汽车普 及放缓，全球石油需求仍将增长至本十年末。这与欧佩克的观点形成鲜明对比——后者认为石油消费将 持续增长，且未预测需求峰值。IEA报告显示，石油需求将于2029年达到1.056亿桶/日的峰值，2030年 小幅回落。与此同时，全球产能预计到2030年将增加超500万桶/日，达1.147亿桶/日。近期以色列与伊 朗的冲突凸显了中东供应风险，但IEA指出， 最新预测显示，若未出现重大供应中断，2030年前供应将 保持充足。IEA执行主任表示："基于基本面，未来几年石油市场料将供应充裕，但近期事件强烈凸显 了石油供应安全面临的重大地缘政治风险。" 订阅原油市场资讯 +订阅 ...

智通财经6月17日电，国际能源署 （IEA） 新的中期展望显示，电动汽车的加速销售——2024年达到创 纪录的1700万辆，并有望在2025年超过2000万辆，使全球石油需求达到峰值。 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the demand for combustible fossil fuels, excluding petrochemical feedstocks and biofuels, is expected to peak as early as 2027 [1] Group 1 - The IEA's monthly report indicates a significant shift in the timeline for fossil fuel demand, suggesting a peak in oil demand could occur sooner than previously anticipated [1] - The report emphasizes the exclusion of petrochemical feedstocks and biofuels from the fossil fuel demand analysis, focusing solely on combustible fossil fuels [1]