近年来，由于各类"黑天鹅"、"灰犀牛"事件层出不穷，市场对于不确定性的厌恶可以说是上升到了一个新的高度。与此相对应的， 确定性资产则备受追捧，从以黄金为代表的贵金属，到有着长期、稳定分红机制的公用事业等红利股，这些资产的热度持续攀升背 后很重要的原因就是因为确定性高。 当全球资本的聚光灯聚焦于高端科技与上游资源，当传统零售还在为了追求个位数的增长使出浑身解数之际，正处于招股程序中的 鸣鸣很忙（01768），亮出的"成绩单"却可谓极其炸裂。短短两年多时间，鸣鸣很忙的门店数量翻了十倍直逼2万家，换算下来相当 于日均开出近20家门店；2022-2024年，公司的营收和毛利复合年增长率更是分别达到了203%、206%。 在消费整体承压的大背景下，鸣鸣很忙不仅没有遇到线下同行们普遍遭遇到的增长乏力难题，反而是以近乎加速度的方式逆势疯 长，这背后的底层逻辑究竟是什么？而对于即将迎接这一闪耀的消费新星的港股市场投资者来说，又究竟该怎样评估鸣鸣很忙的长 期投资价值呢？ 确定性的来源：效率重构与系统性护城河 而在智通财经看来，即将登陆港股的鸣鸣很忙，很可能会是下一个高确定性标的。鸣鸣很忙的确定性，并非源自宏大的叙事，而是 深深 ...

当全球资本的聚光灯聚焦于高端科技与上游资源，当传统零售还在为了追求个位数的增长使出浑身解数之际，正处于招股程序中的 鸣鸣很忙（01768），亮出的"成绩单"却可谓极其炸裂。短短两年多时间，鸣鸣很忙的门店数量翻了十倍直逼2万家，换算下来相当 于日均开出近20家门店；2022-2024年，公司的营收和毛利复合年增长率更是分别达到了203%、206%。 在消费整体承压的大背景下，鸣鸣很忙不仅没有遇到线下同行们普遍遭遇到的增长乏力难题，反而是以近乎加速度的方式逆势疯 长，这背后的底层逻辑究竟是什么？而对于即将迎接这一闪耀的消费新星的港股市场投资者来说，又究竟该怎样评估鸣鸣很忙的长 期投资价值呢？ 确定性的来源：效率重构与系统性护城河 近年来，由于各类"黑天鹅"、"灰犀牛"事件层出不穷，市场对于不确定性的厌恶可以说是上升到了一个新的高度。与此相对应的， 确定性资产则备受追捧，从以黄金为代表的贵金属，到有着长期、稳定分红机制的公用事业等红利股，这些资产的热度持续攀升背 后很重要的原因就是因为确定性高。 而在智通财经看来，即将登陆港股的鸣鸣很忙，很可能会是下一个高确定性标的。鸣鸣很忙的确定性，并非源自宏大的叙事，而是 深深 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the shift from traditional economic logic to a focus on identifying "certainty premiums" in a volatile market environment, as highlighted by Barings Asset Management's approach [2][3] - It discusses the importance of deep fundamental analysis and cash flow considerations in investment decisions, especially in the context of a changing global economic landscape [2][20] Investment Environment - The global financial market is experiencing a structural reshaping rather than a simple cyclical rotation, with a focus on the rebalancing of supply chains and capital flows [2][5] - Despite apparent economic resilience, there are underlying shifts in the financial health of different sectors, necessitating careful asset selection and research [5][18] High Yield Bonds - Barings' strategy in high yield bonds focuses on high-quality, mature markets, with a cautious approach to cyclical and tariff-sensitive sectors to mitigate volatility [8][9] - The overall return from high yield bonds remains attractive compared to government and investment-grade bonds, especially for institutional investors seeking stable cash flows [9] Fixed Income Strategy - The fixed income market is characterized by shorter durations, higher credit quality, and improved liquidity, with a notable shift in the composition of high yield bonds towards better quality [12][13] - Emerging market local currency bonds present a value opportunity due to their higher nominal yields compared to U.S. bonds, supported by potential capital gains from central bank rate cuts [12][13] Investment in China - China is positioned as a key player in building a comprehensive AI ecosystem, with significant investment opportunities in technology sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and automation [15] - The article stresses the importance of transparency and market recognition in attracting foreign investment, highlighting mechanisms like Stock Connect as vital for increasing foreign allocation to A-shares [15] Capital Flow Trends - There has been a significant accumulation of savings in the U.S. and China, leading to a reallocation of funds towards higher-yielding assets as interest rates decline [18] - The migration of funds from money market funds to "certainty assets" reflects a cautious pursuit of returns in the current environment [18] AI and Gold - The dialogue between AI and gold represents contrasting narratives, with AI symbolizing future potential and gold serving as a historical anchor against risks and monetary expansion [19][20] - Investors are encouraged to diversify across markets and assets, with a focus on identifying companies that combine technological innovation with commercial viability [19][20]

Core Insights - The luxury real estate market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is experiencing explosive growth, with significant increases in transaction volumes for high-end properties [1][2] - The top-tier buyer demographic is actively engaging in the luxury market, driven by a desire for scarce assets and a stable investment environment [3][4] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the transaction volume for luxury properties priced between 150,000 to 200,000 CNY/m² surged by 960% in Shenzhen and 116.7% in Guangzhou [1][2] - For properties priced above 200,000 CNY/m², Guangzhou saw a staggering increase of 233.3%, while Shanghai experienced a 17.3% rise [2] - The total transaction volume for luxury properties priced over 50 million CNY increased by 48.5% and 43% for new and second-hand properties, respectively [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of luxury properties, particularly those priced between 30 million to 50 million CNY, has decreased by nearly 30%, highlighting a supply-demand imbalance [2][3] - The scarcity of high-end real estate is becoming more pronounced due to a reduction in land transactions over the past four years, leading to a perception of luxury properties as "rare assets" [3] Key Players - The Kai Xuan New World project in Guangzhou has emerged as a standout performer in the luxury market, achieving significant sales figures and attracting top-tier buyers [2][4] - The project has maintained a strong reputation over 20 years, drawing affluent buyers from across the country, including high-net-worth individuals and families [4][5] Product Offerings - The latest offering from Kai Xuan New World, the "Chuan Shi Zun Di," features spacious layouts ranging from 254 m² to 835 m², catering to the needs of high-end buyers [5][7] - The design emphasizes large communal spaces and scenic views, appealing to the lifestyle preferences of the elite demographic [5][7] Investment Climate - The resurgence of interest from top-tier buyers in the luxury market coincides with a recovery in the stock market, indicating a potential new wave of wealth opportunities [7]