玻璃：沙河改气扰动 继续逢低做多 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-9-15 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 01 投资策略：逢低做多 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货震荡运行，主力合约周线报收十字星小阴线。供给方面，上周日熔量保持不变，多条产线改产。 全国厂家库存下降，沙河受周初盘面上涨和改气传言影响，中游拿货增加。华中厂家整体出货良好，价格优势下部分中间商适 量提货，库存延续降库趋势。华东华南仍小幅提价以促销，库存压力有所缓解，加工厂工程订单一般，家装订单较好。纯碱和 玻璃现货波动不大，利润改善并不明显。需求方面，中下游阶段性补库，市场交投情绪回暖，部分投机需求拉动厂家小幅去库， 地区产销出现明显回升。纯碱方面，供给和库存压力依旧，与玻璃相比纯碱矛盾更加突出，关注碱玻价差套利机会。 后市展望：传统旺季背景下，湖北销售回暖后继续保持，华北下游加工厂已经复工，基本面整体情况较七、八月份有所改 善。九月底和十月初的沙河改气事件持续发酵，存在利多预期。技术上看，多空双方力量均有减弱，盘面在1150 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report suggests a strategy of buying on pullbacks for glass futures. In the traditional peak season, the sales in Hubei have continued to improve, and the downstream processing plants in North China have resumed work, so the regional production and sales are expected to pick up. The overall fundamentals have improved compared to July and August. Technically, the bullish force is stable and the bearish force is weakening, with the market returning to the 1150 - 1200 range. Although there are uncertainties about the anti - involution news and the market is expected to pull back, the fundamentals and macro factors are still favorable. It is recommended to partially take profits on the previous 01 long positions and focus on the support range of 1130 - 1140 for buying on pullbacks [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Investment Strategy - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily melting volume due to the ignition and复产 of a production line. The national inventory remained stable, with significant inventory increases in North China and inventory decreases in Hubei. The downstream mid - and long - term replenishment led to improved market trading sentiment. The supply and inventory pressure of soda ash is still high, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of the soda - glass price difference. In the future, the fundamentals are expected to improve, but the market may pull back [2]. - Operation Strategy: Buy on pullbacks [2][3] 2. Market Review - Futures Price - Spot Price: As of September 5, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged). - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,189 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous week [9][10] 3. Market Review - Basis - Soda - Glass Price Difference: As of September 5, the soda futures price was 1,302 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,189 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 113 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 149 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan). - Contract Price Difference: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 price difference was - 198 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [16] 4. Profit - The cost and gross profit of glass production using different processes changed little. The natural gas - based process had a cost of 1,579 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and a gross profit of - 379 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan); the coal - gas - based process had a cost of 1,154 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) and a gross profit of - 14 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); the petroleum - coke - based process had a cost of 1,093 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and a gross profit of - 3 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan) [19] 5. Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (up 600 tons). Currently, there are 225 production lines in operation. A production line in Hunan Zhuzhou Qibin resumed production last week [21] 6. Inventory - As of September 5, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 63.05 million weight boxes (up 484,000 weight boxes). The inventory in North China increased significantly, while that in Hubei decreased [25] 7. Deep - processing - Production and Sales Rate: On September 4, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 88% (down 8%). - LOW - E Glass: On September 5, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged). - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (up 0.75 days) [31] 8. Demand - Automobile - In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. - In July, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [40] 9. Demand - Real Estate - In July, China's real estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (down 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (down 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (down 8%). - From August 25 to August 31, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.07 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 26% and a year - on - year increase of 6%. - In July, real estate development investment was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [47] 10. Cost - Soda - Spot Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda in North China was 1,325 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan); in East China was 1,250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan); in Central China was 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged); and in South China was 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Last Friday, the soda 2601 contract closed at 1,302 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the basis of the soda Central China 09 contract was - 2 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan) [50][54] 11. Cost - Soda - Profit - As of last Friday, the profit of soda enterprises using the ammonia - alkali method was - 37 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan), and the profit using the co - production method was - 48 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan) [57][59] 12. Cost - Soda - Production - Last week, the domestic soda production was 751,700 tons (a week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons), including 411,200 tons of heavy soda (a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons) and 340,500 tons of light soda (a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons). The loss was 120,300 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons). - At the end of last week, the exchange soda warehouse receipts were 18,484 (a week - on - week increase of 2,487). As of September 5, the national in - factory inventory of soda was 1.8221 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 45,400 tons) [64][65] 13. Cost - Soda - Apparent Consumption - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda was 461,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,800 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda was 335,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons. - Last week, the production and sales rate of soda was 106.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. In July, the soda inventory days of sample float glass factories were 25.8 days [70][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market may experience a phased recovery in demand in September, and the market is expected to rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips for the glass futures in September, consider out - of - the - money options for near - month contracts, and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Performance**: In August, glass futures declined smoothly. The real - world demand was poor, the mid - stream inventory of futures and spot was at a high level, and some 08 warehouse receipts were re - sold, resulting in greater delivery pressure for the 09 contract and the main reason for the decline of the August futures [2][85]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 29, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (+10). The glass 09 contract closed at 1,182 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [13][14]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of August 29, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 142 yuan/ton (- 11), and the 01 - 05 spread was - 92 yuan/ton (+4). The difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 114 yuan/ton (- 39) [15][19]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Pattern - **Profit**: The profit of glass production using different processes is close to the break - even point. The cost of natural - gas - based process is 1,580 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 380 yuan/ton (+16); the cost of coal - gas - based process is 1,156 yuan/ton (- 11), with a gross profit of - 16 yuan/ton (+11); the cost of petroleum - coke - based process is 1,094 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 4 yuan/ton (+6) [22][25]. - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass was 158,855 tons per day last Friday (+500), and there were 224 production lines in operation. The subsequent adjustment of production lines is not expected to be significant [26][27]. - **Inventory**: The national glass manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Central China decreased significantly due to increased replenishment demand from the mid - and downstream, while the inventory in North China increased slightly as the replenishment rhythm of surrounding processing plants slowed down [2][85]. - **Deep - processing**: On August 29, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 96% (unchanged), the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged), and the available order days for glass deep - processing in mid - August were 9.65 days (+0.1) [37]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [48]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (- 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (- 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (- 8%). From August 23 to August 29, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.48 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The real - estate development investment in July was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [49][55]. - **Import and Export**: As of June, China's float glass imports were 521,000 weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 79%), and exports were 1.9204 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 161%) [57]. - **Cost - Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash increased significantly. The inventory of soda ash in factories decreased, and the production decreased. The apparent consumption of heavy soda ash improved, and the production - sales ratio increased [59][82]. 3.3 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: The glass futures declined in August due to poor demand and high inventory. The subsequent demand may have a phased recovery, considering the traditional peak season and positive macro - sentiment, so the market is expected to rebound. The forces of both long and short sides of the 01 contract have increased [2][85]. - **Operation Strategy**: Buy on dips for the glass futures in September. Consider out - of - the money options for near - month contracts and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85].