1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the traditional peak season, the sales situation in Hubei has improved and continued, and downstream processing plants in North China have resumed work. The overall fundamentals have improved compared to July and August. The gas conversion event in Shahe at the end of September and early October continues to ferment, with positive expectations. Technically, the power of both long and short sides has weakened, and the market fluctuates between 1150 - 1200. Therefore, it is still recommended to buy on dips [3] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: Last week, the glass futures fluctuated. The daily melting volume remained unchanged, and multiple production lines changed production. The national factory inventory decreased. Affected by the early - week futures price increase and gas conversion rumors in Shahe, middle - stream purchases increased. The overall shipment of factories in Central China was good, and some middlemen made appropriate purchases. The inventory in East and South China continued to decline, and the inventory pressure eased. The engineering orders of processing plants were average, while the home - decoration orders were good. The spot prices of soda ash and glass fluctuated slightly, and the profit improvement was not obvious. In terms of demand, the mid - and downstream carried out phased replenishment, the market trading sentiment warmed up, and some speculative demand drove a slight reduction in factory inventory. The production - sales ratio in some regions increased significantly. There is still pressure on the supply and inventory of soda ash, and the contradiction in soda ash is more prominent compared to glass. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of the price difference between soda ash and glass [3] - Operation Strategy: Buy on dips [3][4] 02 Market Review: Spot Prices Rose Significantly - Spot Price: As of September 12, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton (+10) in North China, 1,110 yuan/ton (+20) in Central China, and 1,220 yuan/ton (+20) in East China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,180 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan for the week [11] 03 Market Review: The Price Difference between Soda Ash and Glass Continued to Narrow - Soda Ash - Glass Price Difference: As of September 12, the futures price of soda ash was 1,290 yuan/ton, and the futures price of glass was 1,180 yuan/ton. The price difference between them was 110 yuan/ton (-3). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 110 yuan/ton (+29). - Contract Price Difference: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 price difference was - 212 yuan/ton (-14) [16] 04 Profit: Spot Price Increase, Gross Margin Improvement - Natural Gas Production Process: Cost was 1,578 yuan/ton (-1), and gross margin was - 358 yuan/ton (+21). - Coal - Gas Production Process: Cost was 1,159 yuan/ton (+4), and gross margin was - 9 yuan/ton (+6). - Petroleum Coke Production Process: Cost was 1,092 yuan/ton (-1), and gross margin was 18 yuan/ton (+21). - Fuel Price: On September 12, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 554 yuan/ton [20] 05 Supply: Remained Unchanged - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (0). Currently, there were 225 production lines in operation [22] 06 Inventory: Continued to Decline - As of September 12, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,158.3 million weight boxes (-146.7). Among them, the inventory in North China was 924.6 million weight boxes (-84.2), in Central China was 622.7 million weight boxes (-47.3), in East China was 1,338.8 million weight boxes (-30.6), in South China was 955.5 million weight boxes (+9.5), in Southwest China was 1,242.4 million weight boxes (+35.4), the factory inventory in Shahe was 247 million weight boxes (-43), and the factory inventory in Hubei was 449 million weight boxes (-28) [26] 07 Deep - Processing: Production - Sales Ratio Increased - Production - Sales Ratio: On September 11, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 96% (+88%). - LOW - E Glass: On September 12, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.1% (-1%). - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (+0.75) [28] 08 Demand: Intense Competition in Automobile Prices, Year - on - Year Increase in Production and Sales - Automobile: In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 323,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 404,000 vehicles. - New - Energy Automobile: In August, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.101 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [39] 09 Demand: Real - Estate Data Declined Year - on - Year - Real - Estate: In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 29%, the new construction area was 48.4168 million m² (-15%), the construction area was 54.0957 million m² (-16%), and the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million m² (-8%). - Transaction Area: From September 2 to September 7, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.44 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 31% and a year - on - year decrease of 3%. - Development Investment: In July, the real - estate development investment was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [46] 10 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Futures Price Fluctuated and Adjusted - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (0) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (0) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (0) in South China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,290 yuan/ton (-12). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract was 10 yuan/ton (-12) [48][52][53] 11 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Profit in Loss - Soda Ash Profit: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda production method was 1,276 yuan/ton (-11), and the gross margin was - 36 yuan/ton (+1); the cost of the combined production method was 1,682 yuan/ton (-5), and the gross margin was - 55 yuan/ton (-7). - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 1,989 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride from Xuzhou Fengcheng was 310 yuan/ton (0) [55][56][57] 12 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Production Increased - Soda Ash Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production of enterprises was 761,100 tons (a month - on - month increase of 9,400 tons), including 421,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons) and 339,400 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 1,100 tons). - Loss Volume: The loss volume was 110,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 9,400 tons). - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: At the end of last week, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 6,916 (a month - on - month decrease of 1,268). - Inventory: As of September 12, the national factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7975 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons), including 1.0345 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons) and 763,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons) [63][69] 13 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Apparent Demand Improved - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 459,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 326,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons. - Production - Sales Ratio: Last week, the production - sales ratio of soda ash was 103.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.81%. - Glass Factory Inventory: In August, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 23.6 days [72][77]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report suggests a strategy of buying on pullbacks for glass futures. In the traditional peak season, the sales in Hubei have continued to improve, and the downstream processing plants in North China have resumed work, so the regional production and sales are expected to pick up. The overall fundamentals have improved compared to July and August. Technically, the bullish force is stable and the bearish force is weakening, with the market returning to the 1150 - 1200 range. Although there are uncertainties about the anti - involution news and the market is expected to pull back, the fundamentals and macro factors are still favorable. It is recommended to partially take profits on the previous 01 long positions and focus on the support range of 1130 - 1140 for buying on pullbacks [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Investment Strategy - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily melting volume due to the ignition and复产 of a production line. The national inventory remained stable, with significant inventory increases in North China and inventory decreases in Hubei. The downstream mid - and long - term replenishment led to improved market trading sentiment. The supply and inventory pressure of soda ash is still high, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of the soda - glass price difference. In the future, the fundamentals are expected to improve, but the market may pull back [2]. - Operation Strategy: Buy on pullbacks [2][3] 2. Market Review - Futures Price - Spot Price: As of September 5, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged). - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,189 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous week [9][10] 3. Market Review - Basis - Soda - Glass Price Difference: As of September 5, the soda futures price was 1,302 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,189 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 113 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 149 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan). - Contract Price Difference: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 price difference was - 198 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [16] 4. Profit - The cost and gross profit of glass production using different processes changed little. The natural gas - based process had a cost of 1,579 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and a gross profit of - 379 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan); the coal - gas - based process had a cost of 1,154 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) and a gross profit of - 14 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); the petroleum - coke - based process had a cost of 1,093 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and a gross profit of - 3 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan) [19] 5. Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (up 600 tons). Currently, there are 225 production lines in operation. A production line in Hunan Zhuzhou Qibin resumed production last week [21] 6. Inventory - As of September 5, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 63.05 million weight boxes (up 484,000 weight boxes). The inventory in North China increased significantly, while that in Hubei decreased [25] 7. Deep - processing - Production and Sales Rate: On September 4, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 88% (down 8%). - LOW - E Glass: On September 5, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged). - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (up 0.75 days) [31] 8. Demand - Automobile - In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. - In July, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [40] 9. Demand - Real Estate - In July, China's real estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (down 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (down 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (down 8%). - From August 25 to August 31, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.07 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 26% and a year - on - year increase of 6%. - In July, real estate development investment was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [47] 10. Cost - Soda - Spot Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda in North China was 1,325 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan); in East China was 1,250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan); in Central China was 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged); and in South China was 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Last Friday, the soda 2601 contract closed at 1,302 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the basis of the soda Central China 09 contract was - 2 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan) [50][54] 11. Cost - Soda - Profit - As of last Friday, the profit of soda enterprises using the ammonia - alkali method was - 37 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan), and the profit using the co - production method was - 48 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan) [57][59] 12. Cost - Soda - Production - Last week, the domestic soda production was 751,700 tons (a week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons), including 411,200 tons of heavy soda (a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons) and 340,500 tons of light soda (a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons). The loss was 120,300 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons). - At the end of last week, the exchange soda warehouse receipts were 18,484 (a week - on - week increase of 2,487). As of September 5, the national in - factory inventory of soda was 1.8221 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 45,400 tons) [64][65] 13. Cost - Soda - Apparent Consumption - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda was 461,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,800 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda was 335,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons. - Last week, the production and sales rate of soda was 106.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. In July, the soda inventory days of sample float glass factories were 25.8 days [70][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market may experience a phased recovery in demand in September, and the market is expected to rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips for the glass futures in September, consider out - of - the - money options for near - month contracts, and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Performance**: In August, glass futures declined smoothly. The real - world demand was poor, the mid - stream inventory of futures and spot was at a high level, and some 08 warehouse receipts were re - sold, resulting in greater delivery pressure for the 09 contract and the main reason for the decline of the August futures [2][85]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 29, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (+10). The glass 09 contract closed at 1,182 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [13][14]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of August 29, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 142 yuan/ton (- 11), and the 01 - 05 spread was - 92 yuan/ton (+4). The difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 114 yuan/ton (- 39) [15][19]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Pattern - **Profit**: The profit of glass production using different processes is close to the break - even point. The cost of natural - gas - based process is 1,580 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 380 yuan/ton (+16); the cost of coal - gas - based process is 1,156 yuan/ton (- 11), with a gross profit of - 16 yuan/ton (+11); the cost of petroleum - coke - based process is 1,094 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 4 yuan/ton (+6) [22][25]. - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass was 158,855 tons per day last Friday (+500), and there were 224 production lines in operation. The subsequent adjustment of production lines is not expected to be significant [26][27]. - **Inventory**: The national glass manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Central China decreased significantly due to increased replenishment demand from the mid - and downstream, while the inventory in North China increased slightly as the replenishment rhythm of surrounding processing plants slowed down [2][85]. - **Deep - processing**: On August 29, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 96% (unchanged), the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged), and the available order days for glass deep - processing in mid - August were 9.65 days (+0.1) [37]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [48]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (- 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (- 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (- 8%). From August 23 to August 29, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.48 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The real - estate development investment in July was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [49][55]. - **Import and Export**: As of June, China's float glass imports were 521,000 weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 79%), and exports were 1.9204 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 161%) [57]. - **Cost - Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash increased significantly. The inventory of soda ash in factories decreased, and the production decreased. The apparent consumption of heavy soda ash improved, and the production - sales ratio increased [59][82]. 3.3 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: The glass futures declined in August due to poor demand and high inventory. The subsequent demand may have a phased recovery, considering the traditional peak season and positive macro - sentiment, so the market is expected to rebound. The forces of both long and short sides of the 01 contract have increased [2][85]. - **Operation Strategy**: Buy on dips for the glass futures in September. Consider out - of - the money options for near - month contracts and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85].