1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash market is in a state of high supply and weak demand, with the spot market expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures market to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - The glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with the spot market expected to continue its weak oscillation, and the futures market to be restricted by factors such as high inventory and weak demand. It is advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillation phase. The spot market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with the mainstream price of light soda ash at 1060 - 1470 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash at 1060 - 1520 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures may remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash market was weak last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply first tightened due to enterprise maintenance and then recovered, while the demand remained weak. The market sentiment turned from wait - and - see to cautiously bearish. It was expected that the market would maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1250 - 1400. It was advisable to wait and see [11]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The supply of the soda ash market is high and the inventory is under pressure, while the demand is weak. The core contradiction is the game between high supply and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation in the short term. The operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1300 - 1450. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly soda ash production, weekly soda ash operating rate, weekly light and heavy soda ash inventory, daily soda ash basis, and weekly ammonia - soda process production cost in North China. The multi - empty flow is - 97.4, the capital energy is 76.2, and the multi - empty divergence is 91.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [13][16][18][22] Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass is in an oscillation trend. The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market generally fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The futures are also in a weakening oscillation. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market decreased last week. The demand was weak, and the supply increased after resumption. The market was in a weak oscillation. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150. It was advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [32]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The expected operating range of glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [33]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly float glass production, weekly float glass operating rate, weekly production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily glass basis, and weekly float glass ending inventory. The multi - empty flow is - 98.8, the capital energy is 15.3, and the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [35][38][40][45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase, with short - term stability and potential minor increases in some regions. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, with short - term upward potential but facing adjustment risks [6][31]. - For both soda ash and glass futures, the current recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend. The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity remains, limiting price increases. The futures are expected to show high - level volatility [6]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The soda ash futures were volatile last week. The spot market had weak supply - demand conditions, with an operating rate of 84.10%. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulation indicated an oversupply situation. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity persists. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 is 1250 - 1450, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend, showing regional price differentiation. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures market first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment. In the short term, prices may still have upward space, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy implementation [31]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend last week, showing regional differentiation. The futures were more volatile, first rising and then falling, and were expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 was 1000 - 1200, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 is 1200 - 1400, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [35]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit using natural - gas - fueled float technology, basis (daily), and ending inventory [37][43][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The soda ash futures market is in a weak oscillation phase, with supply and demand contradictions prominent and prices expected to remain in low - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300 [6][11][12] - The glass futures market is in an oscillatory trend, with high inventory and weak demand. It is expected to operate weakly in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see. The expected operating range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150 [31][34][35] 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash market was in a weak oscillation last week, with prices falling differentially. Light soda ash was priced at 940 - 1440 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash at 960 - 1490 yuan/ton. Supply had minor fluctuations due to maintenance and复产, while demand was weak. The futures first declined and then rebounded briefly but faced limited upside due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. It is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and changes in production capacity, inventory, and demand should be monitored. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [6] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: At the beginning of last week, soda ash rose due to policy benefits and sentiment but fell the next day. The industry's fundamentals were weak, with high开工, high inventory, high production capacity, and downstream glass production reduction expectations suppressing demand. The price was pressured by glass and was expected to oscillate in the short term, with the expected operating range of soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It was advisable to wait and see [11] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The soda ash market was in a weak oscillation last week, with prices falling differentially. Supply had minor fluctuations, demand was weak, and the futures had a short - term rebound but limited upside. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, with the expected operating range of soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It is advisable to wait and see [12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly soda ash开工 rate, production, light and heavy soda ash inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly). The main force is relatively bearish, with a multi - empty flow of - 76.3, rapid inflow of main - force funds (energy of 84.1), and high risk of market reversal (multi - empty divergence of 92.1) [13][17][19][23] Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The 5mm float glass market was stable with narrow oscillations last week, with limited price fluctuations. Supply remained stable, demand was regionally differentiated, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The futures were oscillating weakly, suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, with cost and production reduction expectations limiting the decline. It is expected to operate weakly in an oscillatory manner, and the mid - line strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass price oscillated last week, with some local areas rising slightly. The core of the market was inventory reduction. High inventory pressure persisted, and supply - demand did not improve significantly. It was expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited rebound space. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The 5mm float glass market was stable with narrow oscillations last week, with small price fluctuations. Supply was stable, demand was differentiated, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. It is expected that glass 2509 will operate in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [35] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly float glass production,开工 rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and ending inventory. The main - force inclination is not obvious, with a multi - empty flow of - 7.5, a slight inflow of main - force funds (energy of 20.6), and high risk of market reversal (multi - empty divergence of 94.9) [36][40][42][44][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash and glass futures markets are expected to continue their weak and volatile trends due to the high supply and low demand [6][10][27][31]. - For the soda ash 2509 contract, the expected trading range is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [9][10]. - For the glass 2509 contract, the expected trading range is 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures 3.1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The market showed a weak and volatile trend last week, with small price fluctuations [6]. - On the supply side, the overall operating rate of the domestic soda ash industry on June 19 was 86.57%, remaining at a high level. Some plants were under maintenance or production reduction, and Zhongyan Kunshan has been shut down for maintenance since June 19, expected to last about 20 days [6]. - On the demand side, the downstream industry's purchasing willingness was weak, mainly adopting a low - price and just - in - time purchasing strategy. The current supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the demand is sluggish. It is expected that the soda ash futures price will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash futures were weak and volatile last week. The supply side had a high operating rate and new production capacity, while the demand side mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. The market lacked driving forces, and the fundamentals were in surplus. It was expected that the price would continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to stay on the sidelines [9]. - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The soda ash futures market was weak and volatile last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply side operating rate remained high, and some plants were under maintenance or production reduction. The downstream purchasing willingness on the demand side was weak, mostly purchasing at low prices on a just - in - time basis. Due to the loose supply - demand situation and sluggish demand, it is expected that the soda ash futures price will continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data - Data includes weekly operating rate, production, light and heavy inventory in China, daily basis, and weekly ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][14][16]. - The multi - empty flow of soda ash futures is - 59.9%, indicating that the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 7.0 ± 3, and the capital is basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 90.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [19]. 3.2 Glass Futures 3.2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The glass is in a volatile trend. The domestic 5mm float glass spot and futures markets were weak and volatile last week. Except for the firm quote of large - size glass in Shahe, other markets declined. The terminal demand was sluggish, and the downstream mainly made just - in - time purchases. The supply - side pressure was evident, and the manufacturers' promotional efforts had limited effects. Affected by the weather, the shipments in South and Southwest China slowed down. It is expected that the float glass price will continue to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [27]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass market continued to be weak last week. The industry's production resumption was faster than cold repair, resulting in high production capacity. Due to the off - season in June and the weak real estate market, the deep - processing orders were few, and the demand expectation was poor. The glass factory's inventory increased during the holidays, and the中下游 purchasing was cautious, which suppressed the price. The futures fluctuated around 1000 yuan. The fundamentals were under pressure, and the contradiction between demand and inventory was unresolved. It was expected to continue to fluctuate this week. The expected trading range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to stay on the sidelines [30]. - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The domestic 5mm float glass spot and futures markets were weak and volatile last week. Only the large - size glass in Shahe had a firm quote, while other markets declined. The terminal demand was sluggish, and the downstream mainly made just - in - time purchases. The supply - side pressure was evident, and the manufacturers' promotional efforts had limited effects. Affected by the weather, the shipments in South and Southwest China slowed down. It is expected that the price will continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data - Data includes weekly production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel in China, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory [32][35][38]. - The multi - empty flow of glass futures is - 91.4%, indicating that the main force is bearish; the capital energy is 46.4, and the main capital has a slight inflow; the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [43].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: June 9 - 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. Last week, the market showed a volatile and weak trend. The domestic soda ash production capacity has gradually recovered, with an operating rate of 80.76%. The inventory of heavy - soda ash increased by 3.10 million tons to 83.7 million tons, while the inventory of light - soda ash slightly decreased to 79 million tons. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the market trading activity is low. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The soda ash price was weakly operating last week. The supply increased due to the resumption of production after maintenance, the demand was weak, and the inventory was still at a high level. The overall supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was expected to continue, and the price was in a volatile state. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The soda ash futures market showed a volatile and weak trend last week. The supply remained high, the downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the supply - demand pattern was loose. The price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes soda ash开工率, production, light - soda ash inventory, heavy - soda ash inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the 5mm float glass market in China continued to decline, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the competition is intensifying. The futures market also showed a volatile and downward trend. The supply of production lines resumed, the demand was affected by the off - season and rainfall, and the inventory reached a high level this year. Although the raw material price rebound drove a short - term rise, the upward momentum was insufficient. The float glass is expected to run in a volatile state [30]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The float glass price hit a new low after volatility last week. The actual cold - repair effect was less than expected, the supply growth trend still existed, and the demand - side orders decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand weak fundamentals were difficult to change in the short term. The glass 2509 was expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The 5mm float glass market in China declined last week, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the futures market is in a weak and volatile state. The glass 2509 is expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes float glass production, operating rate, production cost and profit of the natural - gas - fueled float process, basis, and ending inventory [36][40][43] 4. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds show that the long - short flow is 99.0 (the main force is strongly bullish), the capital energy is - 69.0 (the capital outflow amplitude is large), and the long - short divergence is 93.3 (the risk of market reversal is high) [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to cautiously short sell. The 09 contract is recommended for either observation or short - selling with caution, considering the pressure range of 1,015 - 1,035 and monitoring whether the bottom - rising trend continues [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures rebounded from the bottom, mainly due to the cost - logic linkage caused by the sharp rise in coking coal futures, the profit - taking of short - side funds and bottom - fishing by long - side funds after the contract hit a new low, and the rumor of significant production cuts in Shahe. However, the fundamental factors such as supply and inventory of glass have not improved. The traditional off - season and the rainy season this week will still affect downstream demand. Technically, the upward breakthrough is insufficient, and it still faces the pressure test at the 1,000 mark, with a possible subsequent correction [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 02 - 03. Market Review - **Spot Price**: As of June 6, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,160 yuan/ton in North China (-20), 1,070 yuan/ton in Central China (-30), and 1,280 yuan/ton in East China (-20). The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 997 yuan/ton last Friday, down 12 for the week [9][10] - **Price Difference**: As of June 6, the futures price of soda ash was 1,212 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 997 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 215 yuan/ton (-3). The basis of the 09 contract was 33 yuan/ton (-32), and the 09 - 01 spread was -57 yuan/ton (+7) [11][16] 04. Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,598 yuan/ton (-6), and the gross profit was -318 yuan/ton (-14) [17] - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,143 yuan/ton (-5), and the gross profit was 17 yuan/ton (-15) [20] - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,208 yuan/ton (-6), and the gross profit was -138 yuan/ton (-24) [20] 05. Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 159,255 tons/day (+50), with 224 production lines in operation. Two production lines were cold - repaired at the end of the month, and two were ignited and restarted last week, resulting in a basically flat daily melting volume [21][22] 06. Inventory - As of June 6, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,975.4 million weight boxes (+209.2). Among them, North China's inventory was 1,005.1 million weight boxes (-125.9), Central China's was 820 million weight boxes (+54.2), East China's was 1,593.5 million weight boxes (+23.5), South China's was 1,060.3 million weight boxes (+8.2), Southwest China's was 1,300.3 million weight boxes (+41.3), Shahe's factory inventory was 308 million weight boxes (+37), and Hubei's factory inventory was 571 million weight boxes (+43) [34] 07. Deep - Processing - The sales - to - production ratio of float glass last week was 82.22% (-16.58%). On June 6, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.8% (-2.4%). At the end of May, the available order days for glass deep - processing were 10.35 days (-0.05) [36] 08 - 09. Demand - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of float glass last week was 1,027 million weight boxes, a weekly decrease of 211 [46] - **Automobile**: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.387 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.213 million. Sales were 2.59 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.325 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.231 million [46] - **New - Energy Automobile**: In April, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 0.905 million, with a penetration rate of 51.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% [46] - **Real Estate**: In April, the completed area of real estate was 25.8758 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 28%. The new construction area was 48.3938 million square meters (-22%), the construction area was 66.0961 million square meters (-27%), and the commercial housing sales area was 63.9239 million square meters (-3%). From May 25 to June 1, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.14 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%. In April, the real estate development investment was 782.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [51] 10 - 13. Cost - Side - Soda Ash - **Spot Price**: As of June 6, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,450 yuan/ton in North China (-50), 1,400 yuan/ton in East China (-40), 1,350 yuan/ton in Central China (-50), and 1,600 yuan/ton in South China (-25). The futures price of the soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,212 yuan/ton last Friday (+9). The basis of the Central China 09 contract was 138 yuan/ton (-59) [59] - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,438 yuan/ton (-5), with a gross profit of 50 yuan/ton (-17); the cost of the joint - production process was 1,665 yuan/ton (+30), with a gross profit of 178 yuan/ton (-37) [60] - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 704,100 tons (a monthly increase of 19,000), including 382,200 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly increase of 12,400) and 321,900 tons of light soda ash (a monthly increase of 6,600). The loss was 167,600 tons (a monthly decrease of 19,000). At the end of last week, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 4,273 (+2,582). As of June 6, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.627 million tons (a monthly increase of 24,700), including 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly increase of 46,300) and 790,000 tons of light soda ash (a monthly decrease of 21,600) [76] - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 351,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 56,600; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 350,200 tons, a weekly increase of 20,400. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 99.62%, a monthly decrease of 8.04%. In April, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 24.2 days [79]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The market is transitioning from "weak reality, weak expectations" to "stable reality, strong expectations," with a focus on EPS and PE dynamics. The current trading logic reflects a typical "Davis Double Play" scenario, where PE fluctuations are crucial for market performance [5] - The report suggests that the cyclical recovery is expected to be sustainable, with potential policy support for domestic demand, particularly in consumption and manufacturing sectors. This is seen as a more favorable and sustainable choice compared to traditional investments [5] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions indicate a turning point for many cyclical products, with EPS expected to bottom out before supply and demand, leading to a potential recovery in performance [5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) decreased by 2.1%, with sub-sectors like cement and glass fiber also showing declines of 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. Notable stock performances included Sichuan Jinding (+13.3%) and Hanjian Heshan (+8.0%) [9] 1.2. Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, top 100 real estate companies spent 360.8 billion yuan on land, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. However, their sales totaled 1,119.86 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [16] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting energy-saving and carbon-reduction technologies across various sectors, including construction materials [16] 2. Data Tracking 2.1. Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 387.7 yuan/ton, down 3.2 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 29.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cement inventory ratio is 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [17] 2.2. Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1,423.0 yuan/ton, up 1.3 yuan/ton month-on-month but down 393.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels have increased by 0.1% month-on-month [32] 2.3. Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 yuan/sqm, stable month-on-month but down 4.1 yuan/sqm year-on-year. The production capacity is 98,690 tons/day, up 2.1% month-on-month [37] 2.4. Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4,705.0 yuan/ton, down 40.0 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 525.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [44] 2.5. Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, stable month-on-month but down 2.0 yuan/kg year-on-year. The average operating rate for carbon fiber companies is 60.62%, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month [47] 3. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting stock prices, market capitalization, EPS, PE, and PB ratios for various firms in the construction materials sector [54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation and cyclical investment opportunities in response to the current economic challenges and geopolitical tensions [4] - It suggests that the central government's recent policy adjustments indicate a shift towards prioritizing domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a more stable and controllable option compared to external factors [4] - The report anticipates that local government bond policies will accelerate, providing liquidity support for the economy, and predicts a potential early turnaround in cyclical sectors [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index rose by 0.2%, while the cement and glass fiber indices experienced declines of 1.0% and increases of 1.8% respectively [8] - Notable stock performances included gains from companies like Jianfeng Group (+14.1%) and losses from companies like Jingang Photovoltaic (-11.7%) [8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 390.8 RMB/ton, down 1.8 RMB/ton month-on-month but up 35.7% year-on-year [15] - The cement inventory ratio stands at 61.8%, unchanged month-on-month but down 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [15] - The cement shipment rate is 47.6%, down 1.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1421.7 RMB/ton, up 0.7 RMB/ton month-on-month but down 402.5 RMB/ton year-on-year [31] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 5.618 million heavy boxes, down 0.1% month-on-month but up 2.4% year-on-year [31] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 RMB/sqm, unchanged month-on-month but down 4.1 RMB/sqm year-on-year [36] - The inventory days for photovoltaic glass have increased to 26.85 days, up 3.1% month-on-month and 44.7% year-on-year [36] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 715.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9100.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 1750.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month but down 2.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [46] - The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 60.19%, up 1.09 percentage points month-on-month and 11.45 percentage points year-on-year [46] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights ongoing efforts in various regions to stabilize the real estate market, including new housing plans in Qingdao and government initiatives in Guangdong [14] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need to maintain stability in the real estate market and capital markets, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [14]

Market Overview - The domestic 5mm float glass market is stable with slight adjustments, particularly in the North China market where some manufacturers have introduced promotional policies to stimulate trading [2] - The East China market remains stable, with some manufacturers adopting flexible shipping strategies based on inventory levels, offering discounts to large order clients to promote inventory reduction [2] - The Southwest region shows improved downstream replenishment activity compared to previous periods, while other regions maintain stable pricing with demand primarily driven by essential replenishment [2] Futures Dynamics - On April 25, the main glass futures contract FG2509 opened at 1137 yuan/ton and closed at 1121 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.75% [3] - The price fluctuated between a high of 1141 yuan/ton and a low of 1117 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,149,632 lots and an increase of 75,634 lots in open interest [3] - The significant decline in glass futures prices is attributed to overall market sentiment fluctuations, with weak fundamentals putting pressure on prices despite low market valuations [3] Inventory and Pricing Outlook - The total inventory of float glass production enterprises is showing a slight downward trend, with some manufacturers increasing shipment efforts to control inventory levels as the holiday approaches [4] - Short-term price expectations are anticipated to remain within a narrow fluctuation range [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector has shown a decline in the Shenyin Wanguo Construction Materials Index by 0.30%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.28% [4][5] - The cement prices have slightly decreased, while glass prices have increased. The national average cement price is 391.17 RMB/ton, down by 0.51% from January 27 [7][14] - The report highlights a significant drop in real estate transactions due to the Spring Festival, with a 71.5% decrease in transaction area [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The Shenyin Wanguo Construction Materials Index fell by 0.30%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.98%, indicating a 2.28% underperformance [5] - The cement index decreased by 0.88%, while the glass and fiberglass index increased by 1.74% [5] Industry Dynamics and Key Sub-industry Tracking - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a total of 5,359 units sold, a decrease of 12,846 units from the previous week, with a transaction area of 56.18 million square meters, down 71.5% [6] - The national cement average price has slightly decreased, with the largest drop in East China at 6.67 RMB/ton [7] - The national average price for float glass increased to 1,347.14 RMB/ton, up by 1.51% from January 27, with the largest increase in South China at 80 RMB/ton [14] Core Investment Insights - The cement industry is experiencing a continued price decline with reduced inventory levels, indicating a potential bottoming out of the market [16] - The glass industry is facing a balance of weak supply and demand, with a slight increase in production expected in 2024 compared to 2023 [16] - The report identifies a positive trend in the plastic pipe, building coatings, and gypsum board sectors, with leading companies likely to increase market share [17] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, Qibin Group, and Weixing New Materials, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 outlined for each company [18][20]