Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand may temporarily become a low-volatility safe asset allocation direction, especially in light of external uncertainties from conflicts such as the US-Iran situation. It suggests focusing on two areas: 1) The cement sector is expected to reach a turning point in the current down cycle around mid-year, presenting pre-investment value; 2) The central urban work conference has initiated a significant era of urban renewal, with an average annual underground pipeline investment expected to reach 1 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is over three times that of 2024 [4][5][15]. Section Summaries 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) fell by 7.9%, with sub-sectors like cement, glass fiber, and renovation materials dropping by 7.3%, 10.0%, and 6.5% respectively. Notable stock movements included Jingang Photovoltaic (+6.4%) and China Jushi (-13.2%) [9]. 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 339.3 yuan/ton, up by 2.3 yuan/ton month-on-month but down by 56.5 yuan/ton year-on-year. The national cement inventory ratio is 61.8%, down by 0.7 percentage points month-on-month and up by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [16]. 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1281.8 yuan/ton, up by 12.8 yuan/ton month-on-month but down by 134.3 yuan/ton year-on-year. The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 67.63 million heavy boxes, down by 3.0% month-on-month and up by 8.0% year-on-year [33]. 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 10.2 yuan/square meter, unchanged month-on-month but down by 3.6 yuan/square meter year-on-year. The inventory days for photovoltaic glass have increased to 42.87 days, up by 1.7% month-on-month and 48.5% year-on-year [38]. 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of non-alkali glass fiber yarn is 4615.0 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month but down by 135.0 yuan/ton year-on-year. The average price of electronic yarn is 11000.0 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up by 1900.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [45]. 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 73.0 yuan/kg, unchanged month-on-month but up by 0.5 yuan/kg year-on-year. The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 73.01%, up by 0.16 percentage points month-on-month and 17.02 percentage points year-on-year [49].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials industry is expected to see a recovery in the real estate sector, with a potential bottoming out of the market. The report highlights two key judgments: 1) The fundamental bottom of the real estate market is likely to appear; 2) Outstanding listed companies may recover ahead of the industry due to their alpha advantages [5] - The report indicates that the pressure from rising upstream raw material prices may lead to differentiated recovery slopes across various segments of the construction materials industry. Companies in advantageous positions may increase prices and enhance profits, while those in less favorable positions may face accelerated market exit due to cost pressures [5] - The underground pipeline network is identified as a key area for urban renewal, with significant investment potential projected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, reaching an average annual investment of 1 trillion yuan, which is over three times that of 2024 [5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index decreased by 1.3% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7% and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.8% [9] - Notable stock performances included Yangzi New Materials (+12.2%) and Jingxue Energy Saving (+9.2%), while Qinglong Pipeline (-9.9%) and Puren (-9.3%) saw significant declines [9] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 337.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 59.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cement inventory ratio is 62.4%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and up 8.0 percentage points year-on-year [16] - The cement shipment rate is 24.9%, up 9.7 percentage points month-on-month and down 18.5 percentage points year-on-year [16] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1269.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 177.8 yuan/ton year-on-year. The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 69.72 million heavy boxes, up 5.1% month-on-month and up 13.0% year-on-year [33] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 10.2 yuan/square meter, down 0.2 yuan/square meter month-on-month and down 3.6% year-on-year. The average price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass is 17.2 yuan/square meter, down 0.1 yuan/square meter month-on-month and down 5.1% year-on-year [38] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4615.0 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month and down 105.0 yuan/ton year-on-year. The average price of electronic yarn is 11000.0 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 2050.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [46] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 73.0 yuan/kg, up 0.5 yuan/kg month-on-month and year-on-year. The average price of small tow carbon fiber is 95.0 yuan/kg, unchanged month-on-month and year-on-year [50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to strengthen real estate policy expectations, enhancing the cost-performance ratio of the industrial chain. The recent pullback in the technology sector coincides with increased expectations for real estate policies, leading to a rise in the cost-performance ratio of the industrial chain. The cement sector is anticipated to benefit not only from demand-side logic but also from a reduction in overcapacity, with clinker capacity potentially decreasing to 1.6 billion tons, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of approximately 75% [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of low-valuation stocks and the advantages of chip structure, recommending Global New Materials International (H-share) as a key investment opportunity. The pearlescent pigment industry is highlighted for its high growth potential and low price sensitivity, making it a rare "strong consumer attribute" sector [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) decreased by 5.7%, with sub-sectors such as cement, glass fiber, and renovation materials indices falling by 5.6%, 8.6%, and 4.1% respectively. Notable stock performances include Jin Yuan Co. (+13.5%) and Fujian Cement (-21.5%) [8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 350.8 RMB/ton, down 1.5 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 77.7 RMB/ton year-on-year. The national cement inventory ratio is 69.2%, with a shipment rate of 46.1% [15][15][15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 42.1 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 387.2 RMB/ton year-on-year. The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 5,962 million heavy boxes, down 0.9% month-on-month and up 44.0% year-on-year [33][33] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 13.0 RMB/sqm, unchanged month-on-month and up 1.4 RMB/sqm year-on-year. The total number of production lines for photovoltaic glass is 406, with a daily melting capacity of 88,590 tons [38][39] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4565.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and down 20.0 RMB/ton year-on-year. The average price of electronic yarn is 9250.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 250.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [44][44] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month, while small tow carbon fiber is priced at 95.0 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 2.5 RMB/kg year-on-year. The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 63.02%, unchanged month-on-month and up 11.42 percentage points year-on-year [48][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market may experience a phased recovery in demand in September, and the market is expected to rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips for the glass futures in September, consider out - of - the - money options for near - month contracts, and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Performance**: In August, glass futures declined smoothly. The real - world demand was poor, the mid - stream inventory of futures and spot was at a high level, and some 08 warehouse receipts were re - sold, resulting in greater delivery pressure for the 09 contract and the main reason for the decline of the August futures [2][85]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 29, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (+10). The glass 09 contract closed at 1,182 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [13][14]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of August 29, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 142 yuan/ton (- 11), and the 01 - 05 spread was - 92 yuan/ton (+4). The difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 114 yuan/ton (- 39) [15][19]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Pattern - **Profit**: The profit of glass production using different processes is close to the break - even point. The cost of natural - gas - based process is 1,580 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 380 yuan/ton (+16); the cost of coal - gas - based process is 1,156 yuan/ton (- 11), with a gross profit of - 16 yuan/ton (+11); the cost of petroleum - coke - based process is 1,094 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 4 yuan/ton (+6) [22][25]. - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass was 158,855 tons per day last Friday (+500), and there were 224 production lines in operation. The subsequent adjustment of production lines is not expected to be significant [26][27]. - **Inventory**: The national glass manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Central China decreased significantly due to increased replenishment demand from the mid - and downstream, while the inventory in North China increased slightly as the replenishment rhythm of surrounding processing plants slowed down [2][85]. - **Deep - processing**: On August 29, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 96% (unchanged), the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged), and the available order days for glass deep - processing in mid - August were 9.65 days (+0.1) [37]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [48]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (- 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (- 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (- 8%). From August 23 to August 29, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.48 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The real - estate development investment in July was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [49][55]. - **Import and Export**: As of June, China's float glass imports were 521,000 weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 79%), and exports were 1.9204 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 161%) [57]. - **Cost - Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash increased significantly. The inventory of soda ash in factories decreased, and the production decreased. The apparent consumption of heavy soda ash improved, and the production - sales ratio increased [59][82]. 3.3 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: The glass futures declined in August due to poor demand and high inventory. The subsequent demand may have a phased recovery, considering the traditional peak season and positive macro - sentiment, so the market is expected to rebound. The forces of both long and short sides of the 01 contract have increased [2][85]. - **Operation Strategy**: Buy on dips for the glass futures in September. Consider out - of - the money options for near - month contracts and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85].

Market Overview - The domestic 5mm float glass market is currently exhibiting a weak and stable trend, with varying performance across different regions [2] - The North China market is experiencing slight adjustments, with manufacturers being flexible in order-taking, while the East China market continues to decline [2] - The South China market has seen a price drop of 20 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, reflecting weak market demand and increased competition for supplies [2] Price Index - As of August 18, the float glass price index is recorded at 1136.68, a decrease of 4.28 from the previous working day, representing a decline of 0.38% [3] Futures Market - On August 18, the main futures contract FG2601 opened at 1213 yuan/ton and closed at 1212 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.57% [6] - The market is showing a range-bound fluctuation, primarily influenced by weak sentiment in the building materials sector, with ongoing supply-demand contradictions and insufficient cost support [6] Future Outlook - The float glass market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term, with insufficient recovery momentum in downstream demand and a prevalent wait-and-see sentiment [8] - Production companies are generally adopting promotional strategies to alleviate inventory pressure [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash market is in a state of high supply and weak demand, with the spot market expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures market to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - The glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with the spot market expected to continue its weak oscillation, and the futures market to be restricted by factors such as high inventory and weak demand. It is advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillation phase. The spot market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with the mainstream price of light soda ash at 1060 - 1470 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash at 1060 - 1520 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures may remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash market was weak last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply first tightened due to enterprise maintenance and then recovered, while the demand remained weak. The market sentiment turned from wait - and - see to cautiously bearish. It was expected that the market would maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1250 - 1400. It was advisable to wait and see [11]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The supply of the soda ash market is high and the inventory is under pressure, while the demand is weak. The core contradiction is the game between high supply and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation in the short term. The operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1300 - 1450. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly soda ash production, weekly soda ash operating rate, weekly light and heavy soda ash inventory, daily soda ash basis, and weekly ammonia - soda process production cost in North China. The multi - empty flow is - 97.4, the capital energy is 76.2, and the multi - empty divergence is 91.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [13][16][18][22] Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass is in an oscillation trend. The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market generally fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The futures are also in a weakening oscillation. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market decreased last week. The demand was weak, and the supply increased after resumption. The market was in a weak oscillation. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150. It was advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [32]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The expected operating range of glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [33]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly float glass production, weekly float glass operating rate, weekly production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily glass basis, and weekly float glass ending inventory. The multi - empty flow is - 98.8, the capital energy is 15.3, and the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [35][38][40][45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase, with short - term stability and potential minor increases in some regions. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, with short - term upward potential but facing adjustment risks [6][31]. - For both soda ash and glass futures, the current recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend. The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity remains, limiting price increases. The futures are expected to show high - level volatility [6]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The soda ash futures were volatile last week. The spot market had weak supply - demand conditions, with an operating rate of 84.10%. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulation indicated an oversupply situation. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity persists. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 is 1250 - 1450, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend, showing regional price differentiation. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures market first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment. In the short term, prices may still have upward space, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy implementation [31]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend last week, showing regional differentiation. The futures were more volatile, first rising and then falling, and were expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 was 1000 - 1200, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 is 1200 - 1400, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [35]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit using natural - gas - fueled float technology, basis (daily), and ending inventory [37][43][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The soda ash futures market is in a weak oscillation phase, with supply and demand contradictions prominent and prices expected to remain in low - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300 [6][11][12] - The glass futures market is in an oscillatory trend, with high inventory and weak demand. It is expected to operate weakly in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see. The expected operating range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150 [31][34][35] 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash market was in a weak oscillation last week, with prices falling differentially. Light soda ash was priced at 940 - 1440 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash at 960 - 1490 yuan/ton. Supply had minor fluctuations due to maintenance and复产, while demand was weak. The futures first declined and then rebounded briefly but faced limited upside due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. It is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and changes in production capacity, inventory, and demand should be monitored. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [6] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: At the beginning of last week, soda ash rose due to policy benefits and sentiment but fell the next day. The industry's fundamentals were weak, with high开工, high inventory, high production capacity, and downstream glass production reduction expectations suppressing demand. The price was pressured by glass and was expected to oscillate in the short term, with the expected operating range of soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It was advisable to wait and see [11] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The soda ash market was in a weak oscillation last week, with prices falling differentially. Supply had minor fluctuations, demand was weak, and the futures had a short - term rebound but limited upside. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, with the expected operating range of soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It is advisable to wait and see [12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly soda ash开工 rate, production, light and heavy soda ash inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly). The main force is relatively bearish, with a multi - empty flow of - 76.3, rapid inflow of main - force funds (energy of 84.1), and high risk of market reversal (multi - empty divergence of 92.1) [13][17][19][23] Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The 5mm float glass market was stable with narrow oscillations last week, with limited price fluctuations. Supply remained stable, demand was regionally differentiated, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The futures were oscillating weakly, suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, with cost and production reduction expectations limiting the decline. It is expected to operate weakly in an oscillatory manner, and the mid - line strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass price oscillated last week, with some local areas rising slightly. The core of the market was inventory reduction. High inventory pressure persisted, and supply - demand did not improve significantly. It was expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited rebound space. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The 5mm float glass market was stable with narrow oscillations last week, with small price fluctuations. Supply was stable, demand was differentiated, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. It is expected that glass 2509 will operate in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [35] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly float glass production,开工 rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and ending inventory. The main - force inclination is not obvious, with a multi - empty flow of - 7.5, a slight inflow of main - force funds (energy of 20.6), and high risk of market reversal (multi - empty divergence of 94.9) [36][40][42][44][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash and glass futures markets are expected to continue their weak and volatile trends due to the high supply and low demand [6][10][27][31]. - For the soda ash 2509 contract, the expected trading range is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [9][10]. - For the glass 2509 contract, the expected trading range is 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures 3.1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The market showed a weak and volatile trend last week, with small price fluctuations [6]. - On the supply side, the overall operating rate of the domestic soda ash industry on June 19 was 86.57%, remaining at a high level. Some plants were under maintenance or production reduction, and Zhongyan Kunshan has been shut down for maintenance since June 19, expected to last about 20 days [6]. - On the demand side, the downstream industry's purchasing willingness was weak, mainly adopting a low - price and just - in - time purchasing strategy. The current supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the demand is sluggish. It is expected that the soda ash futures price will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash futures were weak and volatile last week. The supply side had a high operating rate and new production capacity, while the demand side mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. The market lacked driving forces, and the fundamentals were in surplus. It was expected that the price would continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to stay on the sidelines [9]. - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The soda ash futures market was weak and volatile last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply side operating rate remained high, and some plants were under maintenance or production reduction. The downstream purchasing willingness on the demand side was weak, mostly purchasing at low prices on a just - in - time basis. Due to the loose supply - demand situation and sluggish demand, it is expected that the soda ash futures price will continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data - Data includes weekly operating rate, production, light and heavy inventory in China, daily basis, and weekly ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][14][16]. - The multi - empty flow of soda ash futures is - 59.9%, indicating that the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 7.0 ± 3, and the capital is basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 90.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [19]. 3.2 Glass Futures 3.2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The glass is in a volatile trend. The domestic 5mm float glass spot and futures markets were weak and volatile last week. Except for the firm quote of large - size glass in Shahe, other markets declined. The terminal demand was sluggish, and the downstream mainly made just - in - time purchases. The supply - side pressure was evident, and the manufacturers' promotional efforts had limited effects. Affected by the weather, the shipments in South and Southwest China slowed down. It is expected that the float glass price will continue to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [27]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass market continued to be weak last week. The industry's production resumption was faster than cold repair, resulting in high production capacity. Due to the off - season in June and the weak real estate market, the deep - processing orders were few, and the demand expectation was poor. The glass factory's inventory increased during the holidays, and the中下游 purchasing was cautious, which suppressed the price. The futures fluctuated around 1000 yuan. The fundamentals were under pressure, and the contradiction between demand and inventory was unresolved. It was expected to continue to fluctuate this week. The expected trading range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to stay on the sidelines [30]. - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The domestic 5mm float glass spot and futures markets were weak and volatile last week. Only the large - size glass in Shahe had a firm quote, while other markets declined. The terminal demand was sluggish, and the downstream mainly made just - in - time purchases. The supply - side pressure was evident, and the manufacturers' promotional efforts had limited effects. Affected by the weather, the shipments in South and Southwest China slowed down. It is expected that the price will continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data - Data includes weekly production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel in China, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory [32][35][38]. - The multi - empty flow of glass futures is - 91.4%, indicating that the main force is bearish; the capital energy is 46.4, and the main capital has a slight inflow; the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [43].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: June 9 - 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. Last week, the market showed a volatile and weak trend. The domestic soda ash production capacity has gradually recovered, with an operating rate of 80.76%. The inventory of heavy - soda ash increased by 3.10 million tons to 83.7 million tons, while the inventory of light - soda ash slightly decreased to 79 million tons. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the market trading activity is low. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The soda ash price was weakly operating last week. The supply increased due to the resumption of production after maintenance, the demand was weak, and the inventory was still at a high level. The overall supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was expected to continue, and the price was in a volatile state. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The soda ash futures market showed a volatile and weak trend last week. The supply remained high, the downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the supply - demand pattern was loose. The price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes soda ash开工率, production, light - soda ash inventory, heavy - soda ash inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the 5mm float glass market in China continued to decline, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the competition is intensifying. The futures market also showed a volatile and downward trend. The supply of production lines resumed, the demand was affected by the off - season and rainfall, and the inventory reached a high level this year. Although the raw material price rebound drove a short - term rise, the upward momentum was insufficient. The float glass is expected to run in a volatile state [30]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The float glass price hit a new low after volatility last week. The actual cold - repair effect was less than expected, the supply growth trend still existed, and the demand - side orders decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand weak fundamentals were difficult to change in the short term. The glass 2509 was expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The 5mm float glass market in China declined last week, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the futures market is in a weak and volatile state. The glass 2509 is expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes float glass production, operating rate, production cost and profit of the natural - gas - fueled float process, basis, and ending inventory [36][40][43] 4. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds show that the long - short flow is 99.0 (the main force is strongly bullish), the capital energy is - 69.0 (the capital outflow amplitude is large), and the long - short divergence is 93.3 (the risk of market reversal is high) [47]