Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with improvements in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises started to replenish inventory, showing signs of recovery in the Chinese enterprise sector. However, due to the turbulent world political situation in March, the rhythm of industrial enterprise profits remains to be observed [22][23]. - The short - term cost support for steel prices is difficult to decline significantly, and terminal demand is neutral. Steel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, and the impact of the Middle East situation on steel exports needs to be noted [2][31]. - The production of sugar in Thailand in the 25/26 season is better than expected, and the international sugar trade flow is expected to face greater pressure of oversupply in the second and third quarters of 2026. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [36][37]. - The Middle East situation is still tense, which suppresses the prices of some assets such as copper and US stocks, while increasing the risk premium of oil prices [4][6][74]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and any passage through this channel will face "severe measures" [11]. - The Senate hearing of Fed Chairman nominee Wash will be held as early as the week of April 13. The short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and silver is expected to be weaker than gold [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US military is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. The market is worried about the escalation of the US military's ground operation, the risk appetite is low, and the US dollar index remains high [3][14][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and the Houthi armed forces attacked important Israeli military targets. The short - term US stock market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][18][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year. The Middle East situation has deteriorated, and the stock index is still under pressure [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 146.2 billion yuan. It is recommended to pay close attention to the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market is running steadily and strongly. The overall supply - demand pattern of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream's ability to accept prices is limited. It is necessary to focus on changes in the demand side [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel industry had a loss of 2.47 billion yuan from January to February. The short - term steel price is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [2][29][32]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The production of sugar in Thailand in the 25/26 season is better than expected, and the international sugar trade flow is expected to be in surplus in the second and third quarters of 2026. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [36][37]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton exports in February were 270,500 tons. The US cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease. The short - term external cotton is expected to be strongly volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [38][42][43]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US has finalized the biofuel blending quotas for 2026 - 2027. Palm oil prices are strongly supported, and soybean oil is expected to gradually get out of the undervalued range and be in a volatile and strengthening pattern next week [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn export sales in the week ending March 19 were in line with expectations. Corn prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [48][49][50]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The domestic oil mill's soybean crushing volume decreased last week. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting intention report and quarterly inventory report. It is recommended to view soybean meal from a volatile perspective for the time being [51][52]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Luoyang Molybdenum produced 741,100 tons of copper in 2025, reaching a new high. The copper price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the domestic positive arbitrage layout [53][55][56]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - EnergyX started a lithium production facility in Texas. The lithium ore supply is tight, and the demand for power is not pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [57][58][59]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Middle East situation has led to a shortage of sulfuric acid in the Chilean mining industry. The lead price is expected to continue to grind at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61][63]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price rebounded last week. The overseas zinc ore supply is tightened, and the domestic zinc smelting profit has declined. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and take profit on long positions at high prices [65][66]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium were in a low - level volatile pattern last week. It is recommended to wait and see for platinum and palladium, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and take profit on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy at high prices [67][68][69]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and overseas tin inventories decreased last week. The supply of tin ore is tight in the short term, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to the supply of major producing areas and the realization of demand growth [71][72][73]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Middle East conflict has entered the fourth week, and the oil price risk premium remains high. The short - term oil price is affected by the uncertainty of the Middle East situation [74][75]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price was in a volatile and weak pattern last week. It is expected to be in a strongly volatile pattern next week, and it is necessary to be cautious before the geopolitical situation is clear [76]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern, and enterprises with demand can consider buying on dips [77][78]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene futures rose due to the tense Middle East situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to reduce inventory in April and May and continue to run strongly [79][80]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of major ports in China increased in the first two months of 2026. The spot container freight rate has loosened, and the far - month contract is supported by oil prices and is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a volatile thinking and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [81][82].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran conflict. Uncertainty in the negotiation between the US and Iran has led to large fluctuations in the prices of various commodities, including oil, precious metals, and industrial raw materials [22][69][118]. - Different sectors show different trends. For example, the financial derivatives market is expected to have technical rebounds in the stock index futures but with unclear directions due to the unstable Middle - East situation; the bond market is likely to be in a narrow - range fluctuation [22][25]. In the agricultural products market, factors such as supply, demand, and external market conditions lead to different price trends for each variety [28][29][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The stock index tumbled on Monday, with all major indices and futures contracts experiencing significant declines, and the trading volume and open interest increased. The main reason for the decline is the impact of the escalating Middle - East situation on market sentiment [21]. - **Investment Logic**: After continuous sharp drops, a technical rebound may occur, but the Middle - East situation remains unclear, and the risk preference is decreasing. The market direction after the shock is still uncertain [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a grid operation in the shock consolidation; conduct the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF; and wait and see for options [23]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures closed down on Monday, with the yields of most active bonds in the inter - bank market rising, and the market capital tightened. The long - end spread narrowed slightly [24]. - **Investment Logic**: The bond market is short of substantial positive drivers for upward movement. However, factors such as the narrow - range fluctuation of capital prices, the general profit - making effect in the equity market, and relatively weak domestic demand support the bond market to some extent [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; consider lightly shorting the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) for arbitrage [26]. 3.2 Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean index rose, while the CBOT soybean meal index fell. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased [28][29]. - **Investment Logic**: Market disturbances have increased, and the market is in a wide - range shock. The fundamentals of US soybeans are under pressure, and rapeseed meal generally follows the trend of soybean meal [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [29]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The international sugar price declined slightly, and the domestic sugar price fluctuated. The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have completed the crushing process has increased, and the spot price in the main production areas has remained stable [30][32][33]. - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the expected increase in sugar production in India and Thailand may be lower than expected, which supports the international sugar price. Domestically, the supply pressure is relatively high, but considering the price difference between the domestic and international markets, the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international trend slightly [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou sugar is recommended to buy low and sell high; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [35]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybean oil price changed slightly, and the Malaysian market was closed for a holiday. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased, and the soybean arrival concern has alleviated [37]. - **Investment Logic**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the oil price dropped sharply and then rebounded, and the oil market followed the trend. The inventory of domestic oils is at a moderately high level [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the oil may fluctuate at a high level in the short term; consider the reverse arbitrage opportunity for p59; wait and see for options [38]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The CBOT corn futures price declined. The domestic wheat price rose slightly, and the export of corn starch increased. The corn inventory in the northern ports increased [39][40][41]. - **Investment Logic**: The US corn price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The demand for deep - processing of corn has increased, and the port price is stable. The 05 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider a long - position idea for the 05 corn contract on the callback; for the 05 corn - starch spread, consider narrowing the spread when it is high; wait and see for options [41]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The live pig price has declined overall, and the prices of piglets and sows have also decreased [42]. - **Investment Logic**: The relatively strong feed price has affected the breeding profit, and there is still pressure on live pig sales due to the large inventory [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the wide - straddle strategy for options [43]. Peanuts - **Market Performance**: The average price of peanut kernels has decreased slightly, the price of peanut oil has been stable, and the price of peanut meal has been stable. The inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in sample enterprises has increased [45][46]. - **Investment Logic**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 05 peanut contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The current price is at a high level, and the market is in a state of contango [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - term long positions when the 05 peanut contract is in a narrow - range shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [47]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The main egg price has remained stable, the inventory of laying hens has increased, and the sales volume of eggs has increased [48][49]. - **Investment Logic**: The previous good profit has reduced the enthusiasm for culling hens, and the future supply may be under pressure. Consider short - selling the June contract [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling the June contract; wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The inventory of apples in cold storage has decreased rapidly, and the price in the origin has remained stable [51]. - **Investment Logic**: Although the fundamentals of apples are strong, the upward momentum of the May contract is limited. The market may focus on the production of new - season apples in the future, and there is a risk of frost damage [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, exit and wait and see for the May contract; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Performance**: The outer - market cotton price has declined. The drought in the US cotton - producing areas is still at a relatively high level, and the price of Pakistani yarn has increased [54][55]. - **Investment Logic**: The increase in the import quota is expected to have a positive impact on the US cotton price and narrow the price difference between the domestic and international markets. The domestic cotton price is expected to follow the upward trend of the US cotton price, but the decline space is limited [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider building long positions at low prices for Zhengzhou cotton; wait and see for arbitrage and options [56]. 3.3 Black Metals Steel Products - **Market Performance**: The downstream construction restart progress is slightly slower than last year, and the inventory of Shanghai construction steel is expected to start to decline in early April [58]. - **Investment Logic**: The black - metal sector declined at night due to the fall in the international oil price. The supply of steel products has increased, the demand has improved, but the overall inventory is still high. The steel price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the steel price is expected to remain volatile without a clear trend; for arbitrage, consider shorting the coil - coal ratio; wait and see for options [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The imported Mongolian coking coal market is strong, and the first - round price increase of coke has started [60]. - **Investment Logic**: The coking coal price followed the oil price decline at night. The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, and the fluctuation is large. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [62]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The global iron - ore shipment volume has increased, and the port trading volume has increased [63]. - **Investment Logic**: The iron - ore price has risen to a high level, and the market game has intensified. Although the supply is still at a high level, there are multiple supply disturbances. It is recommended that spot enterprises hedge at high prices [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, hedge at high prices for spot; for arbitrage, enter the reverse arbitrage for the 5/9 spread; wait and see for options [64]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have risen, and the supply and demand of steel products have improved [65][66]. - **Investment Logic**: Driven by energy costs, the prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: The gold and silver markets fluctuated widely, with gold prices falling and silver prices rising [68]. - **Investment Logic**: Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the Fed's attitude towards interest rates, the gold and silver prices are under pressure. In the short term, they are expected to face "headwinds" [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider short - term short - selling; wait and see for arbitrage and options [70][71]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market Performance**: The platinum and palladium markets fluctuated weakly and then rebounded [72]. - **Investment Logic**: The market is affected by the energy price, and the uncertainty is high. The platinum market is in a tight - balance state, and the palladium market is in a surplus state [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; wait for the opportunity to go long on the platinum - palladium spread at a low level; wait and see for options [73]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The copper futures price has risen, and the LME inventory has increased [75]. - **Investment Logic**: The US - Iran negotiation situation is uncertain. The copper supply is tight, and the copper price is expected to be affected by the negotiation situation [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level; wait and see for arbitrage and options [76]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The alumina futures price has declined, and the spot price has risen slightly [77]. - **Investment Logic**: Guinea's bauxite export policy is uncertain. The new domestic alumina production capacity needs time to be released stably, and the alumina price is expected to fluctuate weakly [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum futures price has risen, and the spot price has declined [80]. - **Investment Logic**: The Middle - East situation is uncertain, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The local aluminum production capacity has reduced production preventively [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: No significant market performance information is provided in the report. - **Investment Logic**: The Middle - East situation is uncertain, and the financial attribute has a significant impact on the price. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak [84]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum price; wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The zinc futures price has risen, and the spot price has been stable. The domestic inventory has decreased [87]. - **Investment Logic**: The zinc price is affected by macro and capital emotions. Although the domestic inventory is high, the consumption shows signs of recovery, and the overseas supply may be reduced [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level; wait and see for arbitrage and options [88]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The lead futures price has risen, and the spot price has been stable. The domestic inventory has decreased [89][90]. - **Investment Logic**: The lead price has been under pressure due to macro and fundamental factors, but there is support at the bottom due to the upcoming peak season [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level; wait and see for arbitrage and options [90]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The nickel futures price has risen, and the LME inventory has decreased [91]. - **Investment Logic**: The nickel price is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. The supply and demand in March have narrowed, and the inventory has decreased. It is necessary to wait for the trading logic to switch [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [91]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: No significant market performance information is provided in the report. - **Investment Logic**: The stainless - steel price is expected to follow the nickel price, and the short - term macro impact is large [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading and arbitrage [93]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate within a range [95]. - **Investment Logic**: The demand for industrial silicon from the silicone industry is expected to decrease, and the polysilicon production may increase in April. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider buying at the lower end of the range; no specific strategy for arbitrage and options [97]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon price is expected to be weak in the short term [98]. - **Investment Logic**: The polysilicon production has increased in March, and the demand in April is expected to weaken. It is necessary to pay attention to policy guidance [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to be weak; no specific strategy for arbitrage and options [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: No significant market performance information is provided in the report. - **Investment Logic**: The domestic supply and demand in March have loosened, and the price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Tin - **Market Performance**: The tin futures price has risen, and the LME inventory has decreased [103]. - **Investment Logic**: The tin price is affected by the macro - sentiment and the supply and demand situation. It is necessary to pay attention to the negative impact of the helium blockade on tin consumption [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate widely; wait and see for arbitrage and options [105]. 3.5 Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The spot freight rate index has risen, and the market is affected by the US - Iran negotiation rumor [107]. - **Investment Logic**: The US - Iran negotiation rumor has disrupted the market expectation, and the oil price has fallen significantly. The shipping market is in the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation situation and fuel cost changes [108][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading and arbitrage [110]. Dry Bulk Freight - **Market Performance**: The spot freight rate index has shown different trends, with different ship - type sectors showing obvious differentiation [110]. - **Investment Logic**: The Middle - East situation has disrupted global shipments, and the high fuel price has put pressure on shipowners. Different ship - type markets are affected by different factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to the long - term impact of the conflict on the dry - bulk shipping chain [111][112]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report.

Group 1: Carbon Emission Trading - Carbon emission trading has transitioned from local trials to a national market, with goals to expand industry scope and trading methods by 2025[3] - In 2025, China's carbon price performance is expected to improve as companies adapt to the carbon market and policies tighten quotas, potentially increasing environmental costs[3] Group 2: Water Rights and Pollution Trading - Water rights trading is being implemented for regional balanced development, with significant transactions like the 15 million cubic meters of Yellow River water rights sold from Aba Prefecture to Ningxia starting in 2024[3] - Pollution rights trading is in its early stages, with initial cost visibility beginning, as seen in Shanghai's first pollution rights transaction focusing on volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides[3] Group 3: New Production Factor Pricing Mechanism - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes exploring a new pricing mechanism for production factors, including data, knowledge, and resource-related factors like carbon and water rights[7] - The establishment of pricing mechanisms for new production factors is expected to drive green transformation and industry upgrades, particularly in carbon emissions and pollution control[8] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical events may significantly impact global liquidity and demand, posing risks to market stability[8] - The push for carbon neutrality may exert considerable transformation pressure on traditional industries, presenting additional risks[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference remains low, with gold prices oscillating slightly higher, silver prices falling by over 1%, and oil prices remaining strong due to the blocked passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the refusal of US allies to provide escort, leading to increasing inflationary pressure [1][12]. - A - shares continue to decline with shrinking trading volume, and there are no trend - based opportunities for short - term stock indices as the situation between the US and Iran escalates and funds shift between sectors [2][22]. - The focus of the bond market lies in the war and shipping situation in the strait. If oil prices remain high, inflation should be the main trading theme, and long - term bond varieties are in a weakly oscillating market [3][25]. - Steel prices continue to oscillate slightly stronger, but the market driving force is still insufficient, and the subsequent inventory reduction speed of finished products is uncertain [4][30]. - Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and the security threat to Middle - East energy facilities is increasing [5][54]. - The container shipping price from Shanghai to Rotterdam by MSK has increased, and the freight rate is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term [6][62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury auctioned $13 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 4.817% and a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.76 [11]. - After the death of Ali Larijani, gold prices oscillated slightly higher, silver prices fell by over 1%, and inflationary pressure increased. Short - term precious metals are under pressure, and the silver performance is weaker than that of gold [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US military launched an attack on missile launch sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump criticized NATO allies, and the US dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The White House economic advisor believes that the Iran conflict will end within a few weeks. After the death of Larijani, the Middle - East situation escalates, but the financial market has priced in the war's persistence. The US stock market has rebounded for two consecutive days, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and the National Development and Reform Commission has launched $13.4 billion in major foreign - funded projects. A - shares are falling with shrinking trading volume, and there are no short - term trend - based opportunities. It is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks [21][22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 51 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.15 billion yuan. The bond market focuses on the war and shipping situation. If oil prices remain high, inflation is the main trading theme, and short - term short - selling has a slightly higher cost - performance ratio [24][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is running stably. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is expected to improve. The short - term market is in a supply - demand balance, and price fluctuations are mainly affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [27][28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China State Construction's new contract value from January to February increased by 0.9% year - on - year. Steel prices are oscillating slightly stronger, but the driving force is weak. The inventory reduction speed is uncertain, and the upside space is limited [29][30][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang is stable. The internal and external coal prices are decoupled, and the overseas coal price is rising. If the conflict lasts until May - June, the domestic coal price may rise passively. The short - term price oscillates, and there is an upward risk in the long term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - MinRes's Lamb Creek iron ore project has achieved its first shipment. The iron ore price continues to oscillate. Considering factors such as freight costs and potential mining cost increases, the short - term downward trend is not clear [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The policy of the lowest - price wheat auction has been adjusted, which may suppress the corn feed demand. The supply side's grain sales progress is slow, and the port inventory is low. The demand side has support. The short - term market is in a multi - factor game, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the medium and long term [35][36]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The government has launched a hydrogen energy application pilot project, which is beneficial to platinum demand in the long term. The fundamental driving force of platinum and palladium has weakened. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities [37][38][39]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The auction price of lithium spodumene concentrate is 15,617 yuan/ton. The supply side may face cost increases and production cuts, and the demand side has support. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [40][41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a discount. The lead price is under pressure but has cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips [43][44][45]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount, and the inventory has increased. The zinc price is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks in the mid - term [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - River Steel Resources' South African subsidiary's copper mining has partially resumed production, and Rio Tinto plans to invest $500 million in a copper mine exploration. The copper price is affected by the Middle - East situation and terminal demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider an internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [48][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin has a discount. The supply side's repair expectation is strong, and the demand side is weak. The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [51][52]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq is expected to resume oil exports from Turkish ports, and an oil and gas facility in the UAE has been attacked. Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and the short - term risk premium is affected by the Strait of Hormuz situation [53][54][55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price is oscillating at a high level. The domestic market price is stable, and the external market has a slight correction. It is recommended to manage risks due to the fluctuating Middle - East news [56]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt production of local refineries in April is expected to decrease. The supply side is tight, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [57][58]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price is 81.58 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% decline. The carbon market is in a policy window period, and the price is oscillating narrowly. Enterprises in need can consider buying on dips [59][60]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Indian and Pakistani transport ships have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The MSK Shanghai - Rotterdam shipping price has increased, and the freight rate is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, with the bottom of the oscillation range rising [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US-Iran situation is gradually becoming clear, and the time of the most intense war has passed, but the subsequent long - tail effect still needs attention. The rebound of global risk assets has driven the repair of stock index futures, and the long - position strategy of stock index futures can gradually increase positions [21]. - If the war can end quickly, the negative impact on the bond market from inflation will be significantly weakened, and there are not many negative factors in March, while negative factors will gradually accumulate in Q2 [25][26]. - The US private credit market may face a liquidity shock, and the US dollar index will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [15][16]. - The US stock market is under downward pressure due to the uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns about stagflation, and it is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [19]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities have different investment suggestions, such as paying attention to buying opportunities on dips for some commodities and maintaining a wait - and - see attitude for others [22][26][35] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US existing - home sales in February 2026 were 4.09 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. Trump signaled a willingness to end the war, but the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. The short - term trend of precious metals is volatile, and the Middle East situation disturbs the market [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - A credit fund with an asset size of $33 billion is facing a redemption of over 7%. The US private credit market may face a liquidity shock, and the US dollar index will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues to escalate. The US Energy Information Administration has raised the forecast of US oil production next year. The short - term situation in the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, the US stock market is facing downward pressure, and it is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude recommended [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is researching and reserving a series of policies to support science and innovation. China's imports and exports in the first two months achieved good results. Trump said the war would end soon, driving the repair of the stock index. The long - position strategy of stock index futures can gradually increase positions [20][21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's import and export data in the first two months exceeded expectations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 39.5 billion yuan. If the war ends soon, there are not many negative factors for the bond market in March, while negative factors will gradually accumulate in Q2 [23][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market is running strongly, but the terminal's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. With the weakening of crude oil trading sentiment, attention should be paid to downstream replenishment [27][28][29]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's automobile exports increased in the first two months, while steel exports decreased. The steel price may be in a volatile pattern in the short term, and a volatile thinking is recommended [30][31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China's soybean imports in the first two months decreased slightly. The USDA report only slightly adjusted the global soybean supply and demand. The short - term trend of soybean meal may be strongly volatile, but its supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and blind chasing of the rise is not recommended [33][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn exports to China were zero in a certain week. The supply and demand of corn are in a multi - factor game situation. In the short term, the market is volatile, and in the medium and long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in the first 10 days of March, and the inventory decreased in February. The short - term market is affected by the Iranian situation, and attention should be paid to the export recovery of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesia's biodiesel policy [39][40][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar production in a certain state increased, and Brazil's sugar exports decreased in the first week of March. The market's expectation of global sugar supply surplus has decreased, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile at a low level [43][44][46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The sales volume of some pig companies increased in February, while the sales revenue of some decreased. The pig market is under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to short the near - month contract on rebounds and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in the long term [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued an announcement on the lithium carbonate futures contract. A trading company signed a lithium purchase agreement. The short - term demand for lithium carbonate is supported, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips [50][51][53]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The price of platinum rebounded slightly, and the price of palladium was mainly volatile. The short - term trend of platinum and palladium is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of lead is expected to be volatile at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on pullbacks [56][57][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The price of zinc is running cautiously, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain the idea of positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets in the medium term [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper imports showed different trends in the first two months. Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the copper mine contract. The short - term trend of copper is expected to bottom out and rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [61][63][65]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The short - term supply - demand pattern of tin is weak, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range volatile manner, with limited downward space [66][67][68]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA maintained the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026. An oil refinery in the UAE was attacked. The risk premium of oil prices has declined, and the market has returned to pricing the short - term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [69][70][71]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the impact of the Iranian situation and supply reduction [72][73]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The price of CEA is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and enterprises with demand can consider buying on dips [73][74][75]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The transportation department约谈ed shipping companies. The European line futures are mainly in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment of high - price shipping companies in late March [76][77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market's focus remains on the US - Iran war. Rising energy prices have led to inflation concerns, causing liquidity tightening and a significant decline in market risk appetite [1][17]. - Due to the escalating Iran war situation and inflation concerns, risk assets have been sold off, and the trading logic in the market is chaotic. It is recommended to focus on risk - aversion and appropriately reduce positions [2][20]. - With the potential rise in stagflation pressure, the bond market is unlikely to have a one - way trend. There is a possibility of reversal at extreme points, and it is advisable to focus on band - trading opportunities [3][25]. - Steel prices continue to be in a weak and volatile pattern, mainly due to fundamental constraints. It is difficult for steel prices to have a significant upward drive in the short term [4][27]. - The methanol futures are expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5][61]. - Under the influence of capital sentiment, the European - line container freight futures still have the potential to rise. However, without strong fundamental support, the high prices on the disk may not be sustainable. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels after confirming the inflection point of sentiment [6][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Kashkari is now uncertain about the expected one - time interest rate cut in 2026 due to the war cloud [11]. - Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the Fed Chair, will slowly advance the Fed's balance - sheet reduction, aiming to restore the Fed's balance - sheet size to the pre - 2008 crisis level [12]. - The White House will provide naval escort and political risk insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices have dropped by about 4%, and silver has fallen by more than 10%. The strong US dollar has continued to suppress the market. The short - term inflation pressure in the US has increased, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has decreased. The precious metals' downward trend has been intensified. Gold has not yet stabilized [13]. - Investment advice: The short - term market volatility has increased, the precious metals' prices are oscillating, and silver still needs to pay attention to the risk of decline [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump claims that Iran's military capabilities have been severely damaged and denies being "dragged into the war" by Israel. The US will provide insurance and naval escort for ships passing through the Persian Gulf. Trump has ordered to cut off trade with Spain [15][16]. - The market's focus is on the US - Iran war. Rising energy prices have led to inflation concerns, causing liquidity tightening and a significant decline in market risk appetite. The US dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term [17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In February 2026, the number of new A - share accounts decreased month - on - month and year - on - year due to the Spring Festival holiday, but the enthusiasm of margin traders remained high. The number of new margin trading accounts increased year - on - year [19]. - The A - share market opened higher and closed lower. The Iran war situation has gradually spread, and the market is worried about the war getting out of control. Risk assets have been sold off. Due to inflation concerns, interest - rate hike trading has emerged. The market's trading logic is chaotic. It is recommended to focus on risk - aversion and appropriately reduce positions [20]. - Investment advice: Appropriately reduce the long - position strategy of stock index futures and wait for the situation to become clear for right - side trading [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank had a net injection of 50 billion yuan in the open - market Treasury bond trading in February. On March 3, the central bank conducted a 34.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 491.7 billion yuan on that day [22][23]. - The market has revised up the duration of the conflict, and inflation expectations have risen, leading to a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, a stronger US dollar, and an increase in US Treasury bond yields. The long - term Treasury bonds are in a relatively tangled state, and the yield curve has steepened. If the stagflation pressure rises, the bond market is unlikely to have a one - way trend. It is advisable to focus on band - trading opportunities [23][25]. - Investment advice: The bond market will be in a shock before the meeting, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply shocks after the meeting [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on the afternoon of March 4, with a duration of 7 days. Steel prices are still in a volatile pattern. Geopolitical factors and rising energy prices have not brought substantial benefits to steel prices due to fundamental constraints. Before the terminal demand improves substantially, steel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, and the downside space is relatively limited [27]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is advisable to adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to potential undervalued opportunities [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal prices in the central - China market are running steadily with a weak trend. The supply has stabilized in the short term, but the intermediate links are mostly waiting and watching, and the inventory has accumulated at the mine end. The terminal demand is slowly released, and steel mills' profits are under pressure, so their enthusiasm for purchasing coking coal is not high. During the major meetings, steel mills have the expectation of reducing production, and the demand for coke is limited. The coking coal prices in the central - China market are expected to remain stable in the short term [29]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the supply is recovering rapidly after the festival, but the terminal demand has not been significantly activated, and the spot prices are still weak. The market will remain in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to policy changes around the two sessions and the resumption rhythm of downstream industries [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 3, the steam coal prices in the northern port market remained stable. The willingness of spot traders to sell has increased, but the supply of high - quality spot goods is tight, and traders' asking prices are firm. The demand has not improved significantly, and the成交 situation is not good. The steam coal prices are expected to continue to rise due to the Indonesian export restrictions and the high oil prices caused by the Middle - East conflict [32]. - Investment advice: The short - term steam coal prices are expected to be strong [32]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - In early March 2026, the 11.6 - million - ton - per - year iron ore processing and expansion project of Leting Xintian Industry Co., Ltd. reached a key promotion node. The external uncertainties have increased, and the supply - demand situation of the industrial chain is uncertain. The iron ore prices are expected to be weak and volatile. During the two sessions, Hebei is expected to limit production by 30%. Affected by production restrictions and weather, the overall molten iron output is expected to rebound in mid - to - late March [33]. - Investment advice: During the two sessions, Hebei is expected to limit production by 30%. Affected by production restrictions and weather, the overall molten iron output is expected to rebound in mid - to - late March. The external uncertainties have increased, and the supply - demand situation of the industrial chain is uncertain. The iron ore prices are expected to be weak and volatile [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US soybean crushing volume in January 2026 was 6.84 million short tons, higher than analysts' average forecast. The rise in crude oil prices due to the Middle - East conflict and the previous US bio - fuel policy have indirectly benefited the US soybean crushing demand and CBOT soybean prices. The domestic soybean meal futures prices are strongly oscillating, but the spot prices are slow to follow, and the basis has been continuously narrowing [36]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures prices may be strongly oscillating under cost support. Future attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US, reserve sales, the progress of Brazil's soybean harvest and exports, and China's import soybean customs - clearance policies [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - India's palm oil imports in February increased by 10.1% month - on - month, reaching a six - month high. The increase in India's palm oil and soybean oil imports may reduce the inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia and boost the palm oil and soybean oil futures. The international diesel price increase has supported the palm oil price, and the Indian trade is expected to increase palm oil imports in March, which is conducive to the inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil in March [37][38]. - Investment advice: The international geopolitical conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and diesel prices, which is beneficial to the bio - diesel industry and will support the prices of the oil market. The oil market is expected to remain strong before the international situation eases [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn export inspection volume in the week ending February 26, 2026, decreased by 8% week - on - week but increased by 37% year - on - year. The corn futures and spot prices are oscillating strongly. The supply from the grass - roots level is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand has support, and the centralized procurement by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has boosted the market sentiment [39][40]. - Investment advice: The low inventories at the north - south ports, the slow release of the grass - roots selling pressure, and the tight supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast provide support for the price. However, there is still a risk of concentrated selling of the ground - stored corn in the Northeast as the temperature rises. The weak demand in the downstream breeding and deep - processing industries and the potential impact of wheat auctions may suppress the price. In the short term, the market is affected by multiple factors, and the current futures price is relatively high. It is advisable to trade according to the trend and not to chase the high price. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upward range is limited by demand recovery and policy regulation. Attention should be paid to the weather, corn reserve purchase policies, and wheat auction dynamics [40]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the northern Xinjiang region, cotton enterprises' basis quotes are stable, and textile enterprises are adopting the "locked - basis" procurement strategy. Australia's cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to decrease by 20% due to water supply shortages and low cotton prices. The import yarn prices have increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to increase. The Zhengzhou cotton futures have entered a shock - adjustment state after a sharp rise. The downstream gauze market recovery is slow, and the import yarn inventory has a negative impact on domestic cotton consumption. The new Xinjiang cotton target - price subsidy policy is about to be introduced, which will have a significant impact on the cotton planting area [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: The textile enterprises' cotton yarn inventory is not high, and the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is approaching. The short - term factors such as the reduction of US tariffs on Chinese goods support the cotton price. The commercial cotton inventory in China and Xinjiang has decreased year - on - year, and the spot basis is strong. The market sentiment is expected to be positive. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are not expected to decline significantly in the short term. However, the peak - season performance is uncertain, and the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference will suppress the cotton price increase. The futures price is expected to be in a shock in the short term. Attention should be paid to the macro - level dynamics, the resumption of downstream enterprises, and the order situation [45]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Huatong Co., Ltd. has provided a maximum - amount joint and several liability guarantee for the downstream pig - farmers' "Huatong Piglet Loan" business. The pig market has over - capacity and inventory pressure, and the overall spot sentiment is not optimistic. The futures price has a relatively high premium compared to the spot price, so the short - term long - position safety margin is not high. In the medium term, it is more suitable to adopt the strategy of short - selling on significant rebounds. Attention should be paid to the situation of piglets and sows to determine whether the cycle will reverse [46]. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to the short - selling opportunities brought by the postponed supply pressure [47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On March 2, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $47.76 per ton. The Shanghai lead futures rose and then fell. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has not eased, and the decline in interest - rate cut expectations, recession trading, and liquidity withdrawal have affected the precious metals and non - ferrous metals markets. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the 0 - 3 cash spread decreased. The domestic social lead inventory decreased marginally. The lead price rebounded from a low level due to cost support and supply - demand mismatch, but it is also affected by the macro - level situation. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream large enterprises [48][49]. - Investment advice: In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to pay attention to medium - term long - position opportunities; in terms of the arbitrage strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In January, the total global sales of eight major Japanese automakers increased by 0.7% year - on - year, while the total production decreased by 1.6%. On March 2, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $20.6 per ton. The domestic and international zinc prices oscillated downward. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has not eased, and the increase in energy prices and the decline in interest - rate cut expectations have affected the non - ferrous metals market. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the 0 - 3 cash spread oscillated. The domestic social zinc inventory increased significantly, and the domestic fundamentals are under short - term pressure. The zinc price may enter a stage of shock adjustment, and it is advisable to manage positions well in the high - volatility market [50][51]. - Investment advice: In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to wait and see, and it is recommended to close the previous long positions; in terms of the arbitrage strategy, it is advisable to wait and see for the month - spread arbitrage, and it is recommended to adopt the medium - term positive cross - market arbitrage strategy [52]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Canadian mining company First Phosphate has obtained conditional approval for a CAD 16.7 - million (about USD 12.2 - million) grant to support its lithium - iron - phosphate battery - grade phosphoric acid processing plan. The lithium carbonate futures limit - downed, and the weighted contract open interest decreased. The market rumor that the Middle - East situation affects energy - storage demand has limited impact. In March, the domestic lithium carbonate inventory is expected to decrease by about 2,000 tons. After the sharp decline in the futures price, the downstream buying demand has increased. In April, the lithium carbonate demand is expected to continue to increase, and the inventory will continue to decrease. Attention should be paid to the Zimbabwe export policy, the power - terminal situation, and the demand fulfillment [53][54]. - Investment advice: Referring to the night - session non - ferrous metals' volatility, the lithium carbonate futures may open lower today. The risk - return ratio around 150,000 yuan is average, but if the price continues to fall, it may be advisable to gradually try long positions [55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Indonesia's tin production quota in 2026 is 65,860 tons. The domestic SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME tin inventory increased. The short - term supply shortage situation has eased with the resumption of production in Myanmar and the expected increase in Indonesia's production in 2026. In the long - term, the supply is concentrated and vulnerable, and the supply may be restricted by anti - globalization and resource nationalism. The domestic smelting processing fees have remained unchanged, and the smelting profit margin has decreased slightly. The smelting enterprises' production decreased during the Spring Festival, and the downstream enterprises' holiday was extended. With the resumption of production of some downstream enterprises, the traders' willingness to sell has increased. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment [56][57]. - Investment advice: Under the background of the US - Israel - Iran conflict, the risk - aversion sentiment and the rising US dollar index have suppressed the tin price. The visible inventory is relatively high, and the supply expectation has increased. The tin price is expected to be in a shock - consolidation state in the short term. Attention should be paid to the downstream receiving situation, open interest changes, and the macro - level and capital sentiment [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has significantly impacted the global commodity market, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty. The conflict has affected the supply and prices of various commodities such as energy, metals, and agricultural products. [122][62][109] - The performance of different industries and commodities varies. Some industries are supported by cost or demand, showing a strong or stable trend, while others are under pressure due to factors such as oversupply or weak demand, showing a weak or volatile trend. [28][34][57] Summary of Each Section Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After the Spring Festival, the stock index showed differentiation. The A - share market was driven by price - increase expectations, with the main driving force coming from improved product supply - demand relationships and abundant social funds. The geopolitical conflict may lead to market fluctuations, but the stock index is still expected to maintain an upward trend. [21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - term market risk - aversion sentiment has increased due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the bond yield is expected to decline. However, the strengthening of the bond market may not be sustainable. The "Two Sessions" policy stance may focus on promoting domestic technology development and industrial transformation, and the impact of bond supply on the market is expected to be limited. [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Geopolitical factors and weather conditions have increased market uncertainty. The US soybean processing volume and Brazilian soybean harvest are affected by various factors. The domestic soybean market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar production is expected to decline, but the start of the Brazilian new - sugar season in April and May may increase supply pressure. The domestic sugar market has supply pressure but is also supported by low prices and potential import - policy tightening. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, with a short - term slightly stronger trend. [29][31][32] - **Oils**: The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may drive up the price of crude oil, and the price of oils is expected to follow the upward trend. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the supply pressure of domestic soybean oil may be postponed. The overall domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term. [33][34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The price of US corn has risen, and the domestic corn spot price has increased due to factors such as the start of deep - processing enterprises and the increase in corn supply in North China. However, considering the post - festival selling pressure, the upward space of the futures price is limited. [36][37] - **Hogs**: The overall supply of hogs is still large, and the price is generally in a downward trend. However, due to factors such as the good completion of large - scale enterprise slaughter and the decrease in the inventory of secondary fattening, the short - term spot price may be supported, and the downward space of the futures price is also limited. [38][39] - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the price of peanut oil is also stable. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [41][42] - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg market enters the off - season. Although the inventory has been alleviated to some extent, the overall de - stocking has weakened due to the good egg price performance. It is recommended to short the June contract. [44][47] - **Apples**: The inventory of apples has decreased significantly recently, and the demand is expected to improve further in March and April. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts also supports the price. It is recommended to go long on the May contract. [48][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals of cotton are relatively stable, with no obvious negative factors. The global cotton supply is expected to be slightly tight, and the signing situation has improved. It is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices. [53][55] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The fundamentals of the steel market continue to weaken, with reduced production, increased inventory, and weak demand. However, the geopolitical conflict may drive up the price of non - ferrous metals, leading to a short - term strong - oscillating trend in the steel price. [57] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The international geopolitical conflict may support the domestic coking coal price. The current coking coal price has basically priced in the existing negative factors, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [59][60] - **Iron Ore**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the supply of domestic iron ore. The supply of iron ore is abundant, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate. [62] - **Ferroalloys**: The price of ferrosilicon is expected to be strong due to cost support, and the price of ferromanganese silicon may be adjusted after a rapid increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in ferrosilicon and partially take profits in ferromanganese silicon. [64][65] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical risks have led to a sharp rise in the price of gold and silver. The market is dominated by risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is expected to continue to be strong. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the remaining positions. [67][68] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The price of platinum and palladium is mainly affected by the risk - aversion demand of funds. The price of platinum is expected to be slightly strong in the short term, while the price of palladium is expected to follow the trend of platinum. It is recommended to go long on platinum at low prices and wait and see on palladium. [70][71][72] - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a high - level consolidation state. Although the geopolitical conflict has limited direct impact on copper, long - term war may support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long term. [74][76] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina is supported, but the expectation of oversupply restricts the price. The price is expected to decline in an oscillating manner. [79] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict may increase the price volatility of electrolytic aluminum. It is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. [80][81] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum market. It is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. [82][83] - **Zinc**: The price of zinc is affected by geopolitical factors and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes. [84][85][86] - **Lead**: The price of lead is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. [87][88][89] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel is mainly affected by macro factors, and the supply - demand relationship is still in a surplus state. However, the expected tight supply in Indonesia may support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the macro - capital trend. [90][91] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the price of nickel ore, and the price follows the trend of nickel. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices. [93][94] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a state of multiple factors, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. [96][97] - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon are bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see the spot trading situation. [98][99] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices. [102][105] - **Tin**: The price of tin is in a high - level consolidation state. The impact of the Indonesian tin export ban is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. [106][108] Shipping and Carbon Emission - **Container Shipping**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has led some shipping companies to reroute to the Cape of Good Hope. The spot freight rate is in the off - season, but the conflict may drive up the freight rate. It is recommended to go long on dips. [109][110] - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The deterioration of the trade environment in the Persian Gulf may boost the freight rate of small - sized ships in the short term. The BDI index has declined slightly, but the performance of small and medium - sized ship markets is better. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation. [112][113][115] - **Carbon Emission Market**: The domestic carbon market price is stable but lacks activity. The EU carbon market has not摆脱 the downward trend. In the short term, the domestic carbon price is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner, while the EU carbon market is affected by policy uncertainty. [116][119][120] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant rise in the price of crude oil. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to be in the range of $78 - 85 per barrel. It is recommended to take profits on out - of - the - money call options. [122] - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is supported by cost but is affected by weak demand. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks. [124][125] - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the main driving force for the price of fuel oil. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply changes in Iran and Russia. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract and not chase the high price. [127][129] - **LPG**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has increased the cost support of LPG, and the price is expected to rise significantly. [130] - **Natural Gas**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a supply - side risk in the natural gas market, and the price is expected to rise significantly in the short term. It is recommended to buy a TTF straddle option. [133][134] - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PTA is gradually returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [137][139] - **BZ & EB**: The supply of benzene and styrene is returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct reverse arbitrage. [140][142] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has improved, but the inventory has been continuously increasing. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. [144][145] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions and reduce the processing cost spread at high prices. [146][147] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips is expected to be tight, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [148][149] - **Propylene**: The supply of propylene is partially returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [150][151][153] - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of PP at ports has been increasing. It is recommended to try to go long on the L 2605 contract at low prices and wait and see on the PP 2605 contract. [154][155] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is expected to be weak in an oscillating manner. It is recommended to wait and see. [156][158] - **PVC**: The price of PVC is expected to follow the upward trend of the market. It is recommended to follow the market trend. [159][161] - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. It is recommended to go long at low prices and not chase the high price. [162][163][164] - **Glass**: The price of glass is affected by macro - sentiment and is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to short at high prices or sell call options. [165][166][167] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is expected to rise strongly due to the geopolitical conflict. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation. [168][169] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is at a high level, and the demand is expected to start. The price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions. [170][173] - **Pulp**: The price of pulp is expected to be strong in the short term, but the market is still in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on European pulp supply. [174][175][178] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory of offset printing paper restricts the price rebound. It is recommended to short at high prices. [179][180] - **Logs**: The supply and demand of logs are both weak, and the price is expected to be supported by cost. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions. [182][183] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The inventory of tires has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to short a small amount of the RU 05 contract and wait and see on the NR 05 contract. [184][185][187] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of tires has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to reduce the holding of the BR04 contract and hold long positions in the BR 05 contract. [188][189][191]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][5][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the national unified electricity market system by 2030, aiming for 70% of electricity consumption to be market-based [1][14]. - It emphasizes the growth potential of green methanol projects, particularly in Inner Mongolia and Northeast China, due to abundant renewable energy resources [2][16]. - The report suggests that coal and electricity prices are expected to decline, but profitability for thermal power may remain reasonable [3][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Recommended large thermal power companies include Huadian International and Shanghai Electric due to stable regional electricity prices [3][18]. - The report advocates for investments in leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy, as well as companies involved in offshore wind and green hydrogen [3][18]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Corporation and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profitability [3][18]. - High-dividend hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power are highlighted for their defensive attributes in a global interest rate decline environment [3][18]. - The report also recommends companies in the environmental sector, such as China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings, as they enter a mature phase with improved cash flow [3][19]. Market Performance - The report notes that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.36%, while the public utility index fell by 1.25% and the environmental index rose by 0.63% [1][21]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power, hydropower, and renewable energy segments experienced declines in performance [1][22]. Key Company Profit Forecasts - The report provides a detailed table of company ratings, with several firms rated as "Outperform," including Huadian International, Longyuan Power, and China Nuclear Power, indicating strong future earnings potential [7][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [18][25][56]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.65%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.19%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.35%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.76%. The trading volume of the whole market was 2.556 trillion yuan. The stock index futures also showed differentiation, with the main contracts IH2603, IF2603, IC2603, and IM2603 having different changes in price and trading volume [19][20]. - **Investment Logic**: The market differentiation further increased. Technology stocks led the rise, while traditional large - cap stocks were weak. The stock index is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Index remaining relatively strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating and bullish, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.53%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03%. The yields of major - term treasury bonds in the inter - bank market generally increased [23]. - **Investment Logic**: The central bank net - withdrew 795 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, and the market capital was generally loose. In the short term, the bond market may fluctuate, but in the medium term, the report maintains an optimistic view on the bond market [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.1% to 1158.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.19% to 321.1 dollars per short ton [26]. - **Investment Logic**: Weather disturbances in the producing areas increased, and the export volume of Brazil increased. The domestic soybean import uncertainty increased, and the market was mainly oscillating [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be mainly bearish; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use a short straddle strategy [27]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The ICE US raw sugar main contract price oscillated, falling 0.02 (- 0.14%) to 13.96 cents per pound, and the London white sugar price oscillated slightly higher [29]. - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the influence of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the supply pressure was certain, but the price might rise slightly in the short term [31][32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the international sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short put options in the short term [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by 1.78% to 61.71 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.82% to 4038 ringgit per ton [33]. - **Investment Logic**: The production of Malaysian palm oil in February decreased, and the supply pressure of soybean oil might be postponed. The domestic oil inventory was at a neutral - to - high level, and the inventory might decrease after the festival [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the short - term oil market will maintain an oscillation, with limited upside and downside space; for arbitrage, consider shorting p59 and y59 on rallies; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The CBOT corn futures rose, with the May 05 main contract rising 0.4% to 443.0 cents per bushel [36]. - **Investment Logic**: The US corn price was stable, and the domestic corn spot was stable in the short term but faced pressure in the long term. The 05 corn contract oscillated at a high level and might回调 after the festival [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: for the US 05 corn, buy on dips; for the domestic 05 corn, short on rallies with a light position; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [37]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The live pig price was generally stable, with different price changes in different regions [38]. - **Investment Logic**: The overall supply pressure was still obvious, but the spot price might be supported in the short term, and the downward space of the futures price was limited [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: place a small number of long orders for the 05 live pig contract; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, use a short straddle strategy [39]. Peanuts - **Market Performance**: The national average price of peanut kernels was stable, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal also showed certain changes [41]. - **Investment Logic**: The peanut spot was stable, the import volume decreased, and the 05 peanut contract oscillated in a narrow range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: trade long on dips for the 05 peanut contract with a light position; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short the pk605 - P - 7700 option [42]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The national mainstream egg price was stable, and the inventory and production of laying hens showed certain changes [43][45]. - **Investment Logic**: After the festival, it entered the off - season, and the overall capacity reduction slowed down. Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: consider shorting the June contract on rallies; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [46]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the price was stable [47][48]. - **Investment Logic**: The inventory decreased, and the demand was expected to improve. The cost of apple warehouse receipts was high, and the price of the May contract was expected to be bullish [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect the May contract price to oscillate bullishly, and place long orders on dips; for arbitrage, go long on the May contract and short on the October contract; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Performance**: The outer - market main contract fell, and the domestic cotton price was relatively strong [51]. - **Investment Logic**: The fundamentals were supported, and the global cotton supply - demand was expected to be tight. The signing situation improved, and the market was expected to rise [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect the US cotton to oscillate in the short term, and consider going long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [53]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: The black market oscillated at night, and the steel price was under pressure [57]. - **Investment Logic**: The steel mills continued to overhaul, the inventory increased, the demand decreased, and the steel price was expected to oscillate before the Two Sessions and face pressure after the Two Sessions [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: maintain an oscillating trend; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The coking coal and coke market fluctuated greatly [59]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply of coking coal recovered, the demand was weak, and the price was expected to oscillate widely without a clear trend [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the downward space is limited, do not short on dips, and try to go long on dips; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [62]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore price oscillated at night [64]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply of iron ore was loose, the demand might decrease, and the price was expected to be weak [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will be weak; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [65]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The silicon iron and manganese silicon prices were stable to slightly strong [66]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of silicon iron and manganese silicon had different changes, and the manganese ore price was affected by uncertain factors [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions in silicon iron and partially take profits on long positions in manganese silicon; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short out - of - the - money put options [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: London gold rose 0.39% to 5185.29 dollars per ounce, and London silver fell 1.01% to 88.3 dollars per ounce [70]. - **Investment Logic**: There were both bullish and bearish factors, and the market was expected to oscillate at a high level [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, use a long out - of - the - money call option strategy or a bull call spread strategy [71][73]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market Performance**: The outer - market platinum and palladium oscillated widely [74]. - **Investment Logic**: The geopolitical and macro - economic situations supported the precious metals. Platinum was expected to be bullish in the short term, while palladium was in a surplus situation [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: go long on platinum on dips, and adopt a wait - and - see attitude for palladium and conduct band trading; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [75]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2604 closed at 102550, down 0.12% [77]. - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic situation was favorable for copper consumption, but the inventory increase limited the upward momentum. In the long term, copper was expected to rise [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will oscillate at a high level in the short term, and adopt a long - term low - buying strategy; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options [78]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The night - session alumina 2505 contract fell 101 yuan per ton to 2747 yuan per ton [79]. - **Investment Logic**: The spot price was supported, but the expectation of over - supply suppressed the price [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will oscillate weakly [80]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2604 contract fell 80 yuan per ton to 23780 yuan per ton [82]. - **Investment Logic**: The global aluminum supply - demand was expected to be in short supply, but the domestic inventory was high. The price was expected to oscillate [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the Shanghai aluminum price will oscillate; for arbitrage, the internal - external price difference will widen slightly; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [85]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot spot price changed in different regions [86]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand were weak, and the price was expected to oscillate with the aluminum price [86]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will oscillate with the aluminum price; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [87]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The overnight LME zinc market fell 0.61% to 3366.5 dollars per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2604 fell 0.04% to 24570 yuan per ton [89]. - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic situation and inventory changes affected the zinc price. The price was expected to be affected by market sentiment in the short term [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips after the price stabilizes; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [90]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The overnight LME lead market fell 0.83% to 1979 dollars per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2604 contract rose 0.27% to 16800 yuan per ton [91]. - **Investment Logic**: The raw material supply, smelting, and consumption of lead had different situations, and the price was expected to oscillate in a range [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the Shanghai lead price may oscillate bullishly in a range; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short out - of - the - money put options [95]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The overnight LME nickel price fell 315 to 17730 dollars per ton [97]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply - demand was recovering, and the price might rise if the Indonesian policy and demand were favorable [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions at a low level; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short out - of - the - money put options [98]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel inventory increased [99]. - **Investment Logic**: The inventory was high after the festival, but the cost was supported, and the price followed the nickel price [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions at a low level; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [100]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The organic silicon开工率 decreased [101]. - **Investment Logic**: The demand was not improving significantly, and the market was worried about the impact of large - scale factory resumption on the fundamentals. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will oscillate weakly; for arbitrage, no strategy provided; for options, no strategy provided [101]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The US announced anti - subsidy tax on imported solar cells [102]. - **Investment Logic**: The policy affected the market, and the spot price was under pressure [102]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will oscillate weakly; for arbitrage, no strategy provided; for options, no strategy provided [102]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: Tesla China launched a low - interest loan policy, and some lithium - related companies had production changes [104]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply was blocked, the demand was good, and the price was likely to rise [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions at a low level; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short out - of - the - money call options for the 2604 contract to protect long - position profits [106][108]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 rose 2.35% to 428000 yuan per ton [109]. - **Investment Logic**: The market was worried about the supply, and the price was expected to oscillate at a high level [109

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index)**: The Chicago Fed President suggests that if inflation falls, the Fed may cut interest rates multiple times. The Iranian Foreign Minister claims progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a lower US Dollar Index. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [1][12][13]. - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: A - shares are in a volatile consolidation phase with increasing trading volume. The spring rally is likely not over. Concerns about the overseas AI bubble are deepening, increasing short - term correction pressure on technology stocks, but they are still optimistic in the medium - term [2][16]. - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Stabilizing real estate policies are temporary disturbances. Before other negative factors emerge, the bond market is unlikely to fall continuously. However, potential risks such as the "Two Sessions" and supply pressure in March still exist [3][18]. - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Brazil imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese galvanized and aluminized zinc - coated steel coils. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to increase significantly, and the fundamental pressure is prominent. The rebound in steel prices due to short - term real estate policies is expected to be limited [4][23]. - **Agricultural Products (Sugar)**: Brazil exported 1.3138 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of February. India's sugar production estimate for this season was significantly reduced by 1.65 million tons to 29.3 million tons, which will support domestic prices, limit exports, and reduce the global sugar supply surplus [5][33]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Finland launched the first commercial spodumene mine in Europe. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained, but the price may correct when supply increases in the medium - term [6][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterates that if there is more evidence of inflation moving towards the Fed's 2% target, interest rates could be further cut in 2026. Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman says regulators will release a revised bank capital reform proposal by the end of March [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister claims progress in US - Iran negotiations, causing a decline in market risk appetite and a lower US Dollar Index. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 4146.63 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.29%. The trading volume increased to 2.56 trillion yuan. AI - related stocks were affected by NVIDIA's earnings, and some sectors had significant movements [14]. - The spring rally is likely not over due to increasing trading volume. Concerns about the overseas AI bubble may lead to short - term corrections in technology stocks, but they are still promising in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold stock index long positions evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on February 26, with a net withdrawal of 7.95 billion yuan [17]. - Stabilizing real estate policies are temporary disturbances. The bond market is unlikely to fall continuously in the short - term, but potential risks such as the "Two Sessions" and supply pressure in March exist. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and face adjustment risks in the long - term [18][19]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Brazil imposed a 5 - year anti - dumping duty of 284.98 - 709.63 US dollars per ton on Chinese galvanized and aluminized zinc - coated steel coils. South Korea made a final anti - dumping ruling on hot - rolled coils from China and Japan, with some Chinese enterprises accepting price commitments [20][21]. - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 1.3427 million tons to 18.4611 million tons in the week ending February 26. The inventory of coils exceeded last year's peak. The market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and short - term steel price rebounds are limited [23][24]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market was weakly stable. After the Spring Festival, coal supply increased as mines resumed production, but demand remained weak. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales net increased by 407,100 tons in the week ending February 19, down 49% from the previous week and 30% from the four - week average, and was at the lower end of the market forecast range [27]. - The US government's biofuel policy may benefit soybean crushing, but actual export data is disappointing. Domestically, the price of imported soybeans has risen, but soybean meal supply is sufficient. It is recommended to maintain the view of price volatility and pay attention to China's soybean procurement, customs policies, and reserve policies [29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil exported 1.3138 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of February, with a daily average export volume 44% higher than that in February last year. The sugar production estimate in India for this season was reduced by 1.65 million tons to 29.3 million tons [30][32]. - The reduction in Indian sugar production will support domestic prices, limit exports, and reduce the global sugar supply surplus. The Brazilian sugar production in the new season will have a greater impact on the international sugar market. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [33][34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From February 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.25% month - on - month [35]. - The oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil was affected by the US biofuel policy and trended strongly. The market is pessimistic about Malaysia's palm oil exports in February. It is expected that the palm oil price will continue to test the bottom, and attention should be paid to the final US biofuel policy in March [36][37]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of February 26, the average inventory of feed enterprises across the country was 31.29 days, a decrease of 0.96 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 2.98%, and a year - on - year decline of 2.43% [38]. - The corn futures price was volatile. The slowdown in grain sales during the Spring Festival, low port inventory, and downstream replenishment demand support the price. However, the price increase may be limited by downstream acceptance and potential policy grain releases. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly upward, but the 05 contract may face a technical correction [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen expects to gradually reduce the proportion of外购仔猪 (purchased piglets) in 2026 and strive to reduce the full - cost of fattening pigs to about 12.6 yuan per kilogram. Wens Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase shares worth 800 million - 1.2 billion yuan [39][41]. - The current slaughter volume is low, and the supply pressure remains. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak. The near - month futures contracts face basis - repair pressure, while the far - month contracts may rebound after over - falling. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the far - month contracts after the negative factors are exhausted [41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Finland launched the first commercial spodumene mine in Europe, with a lithium concentrate production capacity equivalent to about 15,000 tons of lithium hydroxide. Core Lithium reached a fixed - price agreement with Glencore to sell about 5,100 dry tons of spodumene concentrate [43][44]. - In the short - term, a bullish view on lithium carbonate is maintained, but the price may correct when supply increases in the medium - term [45]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 46.37 US dollars per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots in five places increased by 3,100 tons [46]. - The Shanghai lead futures were in a low - level volatile pattern. The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is supported by the cost of recycled smelters. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider long positions in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 29.64 US dollars per ton. As of February 26, the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased by 10,200 tons [48][49]. - The zinc price was volatile. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased. The downstream start - up was slow. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and continue to hold call options, while being vigilant about tariff risks [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Mexico's mining safety risk has increased significantly, and Japan's copper and copper alloy imports in January increased by 13.51% year - on - year. The core leadership of Congo (Kinshasa)'s state - owned mining company has been replaced [50][51][52]. - The copper price is affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and domestic policies. The domestic and overseas inventories are increasing, which restricts the price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a premium of 20 US dollars per ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 182 tons on February 26 [54]. - The supply of tin ore may gradually ease in the short - term but is expected to be restricted in the long - term. The price is expected to be in a strong and wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar and post - holiday consumption [54][55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of February 20, the US propane/propylene output was about 2,862 thousand barrels per day, the inventory was 725 million barrels, a decrease of 17 million barrels from the previous week, and the consumption decreased from 1,472 thousand barrels per day to 1,343 thousand barrels per day [56]. - The LPG price is expected to be strong. The domestic spot market is tepid, and the inventory is higher than last year, with a weaker destocking slope [56][57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On February 26, the closing price of CEA in the national carbon emissions trading market was 81 yuan per ton, the same as the previous day. The trading volume of the listing agreement was 30,000 tons, and the trading volume of the bulk agreement was 400,000 tons [58]. - The carbon market is in a policy window period. The trading price fluctuates greatly, but the price center is stable. The trading activity has cooled down, and it is recommended that enterprises with demand consider buying on dips [58][59]. 3.2.15 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - An accident in the Port of Livorno, Italy, led to a 24 - hour port - wide strike, paralyzing container operations and causing a backlog of goods [60]. - The container freight rate is expected to decline in March. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to short the 04 contract on rallies [61][62].