日前，生态环境部印发《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量 和分配方案》，这是碳排放权交易市场扩围工作的重要部署安排。方案发布后，生态环境部门将下发 2024年度配额，重点排放单位将于年内完成首次配额清缴。明年上半年，生态环境部门将下发2025年度 预分配配额。重点排放单位应在明年年底前完成2025年度配额清缴工作。 生态环境部应对气候变化司司长夏应显表示，纳入碳市场将有效推动钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼这三个行 业绿色低碳转型，有效压实企业的减排责任，为国家温室气体排放控制目标实现提供有效保障。 新华社北京11月24日电（记者高敬）《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的 建议》提出，扩大全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖范围。 2021年7月，以发电行业为突破口，全国碳排放权交易市场启动上线交易。今年3月，全国碳排放权 交易市场首次扩围，钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业纳入碳排放权交易市场管理。 瞄准"双碳"目标，如何扩大全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖范围？记者了解到，生态环境部已启动化 工、石化、民航、造纸等行业扩围前期准备工作。一是推进历史数据治理，为科学合理确定配额总量和 分配方案奠定 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Carbon Market Weekly Report - Date: November 21, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Chinese government is actively promoting the construction of the carbon market, with policies aiming to expand coverage, control quota总量, and increase market vitality [9][10] - The expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market will gradually cover major industrial emission - intensive industries by 2027, marking a new stage in using market - based mechanisms for deep - emission reduction [10] Summary by Directory 1. Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of different trading methods were also reported [7] - In the 3rd week of November, the national carbon market quota had a high of 70.14 yuan/ton, a low of 60.02 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 65.27 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 8.48%. The total trading volume was 1169.44 million tons, and the total turnover was 701.0284 million yuan. Price expectations for November and December 2025 were also given [8] 2. Market News - The central government issued an opinion to expand the carbon market's coverage, implement quota总量 control and paid distribution, and improve market vitality [9] - China's carbon market construction aligns with the "dual - carbon" goal, and will gradually implement quota总量 control and paid distribution as the carbon - peak process advances [10] - The expansion schedule of the national carbon emissions trading market was announced, with major industrial sectors to be included by 2027, covering about 75% of CO2 emissions [10] - The "Chengdu Declaration" at the 2025 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference called for anti - "involution" in the industry and promoted high - quality development [10]

湖北生态环境权益交易平台建立了全国首个规范的生态产品价值实现交易模块。通过科学的生态产品价 值核算体系，为清新的空气、洁净的水源、丰富的碳汇、优美的景观等"无价"的生态产品贴上"价格标 签"，并上线交易。十堰市的优质水资源、荆州市的洪湖流域碳汇等项目作为首批生态产品亮相。 湖北生态环境权益交易平台于10月18日上线运行，该平台建设深植于湖北省在资源环境要素领域已形成 的显著比较优势与深厚数据积累。湖北在全国各试点碳市场中汇聚了最丰富的交易主体、实现了最大的 交易规模，并保持着最活跃的碳金融创新态势。同时，排污权交易试点也长期走在全国前列，生态产品 与固废资源极为丰富。受益于此，与传统单一品种交易平台不同，湖北生态环境权益交易平台首创性地 实现了碳排放权、排污权、生态产品价值实现、固体废物资源化利用、绿色金融服务五大核心功能的系 统整合与协同运作，业务范畴横跨生态、金融、经济等多个领域，正成为推动绿色低碳转型的重要引 擎。 截至目前，湖北生态环境权益交易平台运行一个月，目前平台注册用户已突破200万，累计交易额650亿 元，累计融资规模达2576亿元。面向未来，生态环境权益交易平台将积极发挥要素配置功能，有效支 ...

在政策完善与企业探索中，中国碳市场正走向成熟。 为进一步发挥市场机制对控制温室气体排放、降低全社会减排成本的重要作用，生态环境部近日印发《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、 铝冶炼行业配额总量和分配方案》（下称《方案》）。其后，该部将下发钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业2024年度配额，重点排放单位规定于年内完成清缴，2025 年度预分配配额则将于2026年上半年下发。 《方案》总体思路主要分三方面：一是延续稳定政策框架，借鉴发电行业经验，延续基于碳排放强度控制的免费配额分配，配额与企业实际产出量动态挂 钩，确保行业发展的必要空间；二是突出管控重点，聚焦生产中的直接排放，将钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业全流程碳排放占比98%以上的企业纳入，排放量少 的暂不纳入；三是合理控制配额盈缺率，依企业排放强度与行业基准的差距确定盈亏率，对排放强度高于或低于基准20%及以上的企业分别设3%盈余封顶 与- 3%亏缺封底。 今年3月，钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业被批准纳入碳排放权交易市场管理。当前市场配额总量已超过80亿吨/年，较2024年的6.96亿吨累计成交量增超10倍，工 业领域减排需求迎来爆发增长。 "碳市场扩容和国家大 ...

（来源：易碳家） 日期 2025.11.11 收盘价 (元/吨) 最高价(元/吨) 最低价(元/吨) 成交量 (万吨) 成交额 (亿元) 2025.11.10 1.79 2.66 2025.11.12 1.71 2025.11.13 1.94 2025.11.14 1.98 总计 日期 开盘价 (元/吨) 收盘价 (元/吨) 最高价 (元/吨) 最低价 (元/吨) 成交量 (吨) 成交额 (元) 2025/11/10 839 2025/11/11 5442 2025/11/12 2025/11/13 6727 2025/11/14 总计 成交量 (万吨) 0.93 深圳 0.03 成交额 (万元) 成交均价 (元/吨) 湖北 广东 0.36 1.03 0 0 福建 4.90 四川 0 一级市场 二级市场 成交量(万吨) 成交额(亿元) 全国 湖北 4.31 广东 9.95 6.28 3.07 深圳 0.32 1.48 9.01 3.36 7.94 福建 10 7.86 (万欧元) 四川 0 0.00 日期 成交均价 (欧元/吨) 成交量(万吨) 成交额 2025.11.07 2.60 2025.11.10 0 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is transitioning from intensity control to total control during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a focus on enhancing green and low-carbon transformation in key industries [1][2][3] Group 1: Mandatory Carbon Market - The mandatory carbon market has expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, which will enhance emission reduction responsibilities for these sectors [2] - By 2027, priority will be given to implementing total quota control for industries with relatively stable carbon emissions, ensuring effective compliance with national greenhouse gas emission control targets [2][3] - The carbon market has already reduced overall emission reduction costs in the power generation sector by approximately 35 billion yuan during the first two compliance cycles [3] Group 2: Voluntary Carbon Market - The voluntary carbon market has entered a critical development phase, with 31 projects registered and a total of 1.504 million tons of CCER traded, amounting to a transaction value of 270 million yuan [4][5] - The framework for the voluntary carbon market has been established across management systems, technical methods, and infrastructure, with a focus on enhancing the integrity and regulatory compliance of voluntary reduction projects [4][5] Group 3: Carbon Footprint Management - The average carbon footprint factor for electricity in China has decreased by 6.9% from 0.6205 kg CO2 equivalent per kWh in 2023 to 0.5777 kg CO2 equivalent per kWh in 2024, reflecting improvements in energy structure and technological innovation [6][7] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is committed to building a product carbon footprint management system, addressing key issues related to calculation and data availability [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, the price is in a correction trend, pay attention to the risk of decline [12] - US Dollar Index: Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate [16] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term, the pessimistic sentiment may ferment, the market will fluctuate and adjust, but maintain a bullish view overall [19] - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term, the bond market will fluctuate, it is recommended to observe more and trade less [23] - Stock Index Futures: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [26] - Thermal Coal: The price is strongly supported, but there is regulatory pressure above 800 yuan, pay attention to the risk of price correction [27] - Iron Ore: The price center is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term [31] - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: For palm oil, the MPOB report is crucial; for soybean oil, focus on US bio - fuel policies and US soybean purchases [34] - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar futures will be mainly volatile in the short - term, and the 1 - 5 contract long spread can be held [39] - Cotton: In the short - term, it will fluctuate between 13300 - 13600 - 13800; in the long - term, it is cautiously bullish, wait for the opportunity to go long on dips [44] - Bean Meal: It is currently in a situation of "cost support below and supply - demand suppression above", and pay attention to actual soybean purchases and South American production forecasts [47] - Steel: In the short - term, consider the steel price to be in a weak and volatile trend [51] - Corn Starch: In the medium - long term, the spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink, it is recommended to trade in bands [53] - Red Dates: The market is in intense game, operate cautiously, and focus on the price game and purchase progress in the producing areas [56] - Corn: The 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and rebound in the medium - long term; do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contracts [58] - Copper: Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [63] - Polysilicon: In November, it enters the critical point of policy and fundamentals game. Consider shorting on rallies [66] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to go long on dips, and take profit at high levels [68] - Lithium Carbonate: In the short - term, it will fluctuate within a range; in the medium - term, consider shorting on rallies [74] - Nickel: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips after the inflection point of inventory accumulation [78] - Lead: Industrially, consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term; for spreads, wait and see; for internal - external spreads, consider long internal - short external spreads [80] - Zinc: Industrially, consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term; for spreads, consider long spreads in the medium - term; for internal - external spreads, it has a certain profit - loss ratio [81] - EU Carbon Emissions: The EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short - term [83] - Crude Oil: The oil price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [86] - PTA: In the short - term, the futures will be volatile and strong, but be cautious about the upside space [88] - Bottle Chip: Consider shorting the far - month processing margin on rallies, and the absolute price follows the polyester raw materials [92] - Urea: It will fluctuate within the range of 1580 - 1780 yuan/ton, and adjust according to the actual spot feedback [94] - Container Freight Rate: In the short - term, the market will fluctuate, and continuously monitor the spot price changes [96] 2. Core Views - The US government shutdown shows signs of resolution, which may boost market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar index. The US stock index futures market sentiment has recovered, but the consumer confidence index has declined [14][16][19] - China's October export growth rate decreased significantly, but it is expected to have resilience in the future. The bond market is currently in a volatile state, and positive spread strategies can be considered [20][22][23] - Various commodities have different market situations. For example, the iron ore price is weakening, the palm oil market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the copper market is affected by macro - expectations and inventory structures [28][33][62] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - In October, China's gold reserves increased by about 0.93 tons. The US consumer confidence index declined in November, inflation expectations slightly rose, and the short - term gold price continued to fluctuate [10][11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed needs to weigh various factors in the next interest - rate decision. The potential agreement to end the US government shutdown is being reached, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [13][15][16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed should act cautiously as the interest rate approaches the neutral level. The US government shutdown shows signs of resolution, but the consumer confidence index is close to a record low. The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust [17][18][19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's October inflation data was slightly better than expected, but the export growth rate decreased significantly. The bond market is worried about the fund fee rate new regulations, and it is currently in a volatile state [20][22][23] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China has suspended some export control measures. The A - share market has shown a stable volume and rising price, and it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [24][25][26] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - In November, the thermal coal price has risen, and it is expected to be strong, but there is regulatory pressure above 800 yuan [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - A South African iron ore mine will be temporarily closed, but it will not affect global supply. The iron ore price is weakening, and the inventory is expected to increase [28][29][31] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Brazil's soybean planting progress is slower than last year and the five - year average. The palm oil market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the soybean oil market is concerned about US bio - fuel policies [32][33][34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar export reached a new high in October. The new sugar production in Guangxi will start later, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures will be mainly volatile in the short - term [36][38][39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing export decreased in October. The cotton picking progress is fast, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate in the short - term and be cautiously bullish in the long - term [40][42][44] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Bean Meal) - China has restored the soybean import qualification of three US companies. The domestic soybean import is abundant, and the oil mill's开机 rate is expected to rise [45][46][47] 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Some areas in Hebei have lifted the heavy - pollution weather emergency response. The steel price is in a weak and volatile state, and more market - oriented production cuts are needed [48][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch sugar industry's开机 rate has increased. The starch enterprise is profitable, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price in the Hebei market is weak and stable. The new jujubes are about to be harvested, and the market game is intense [54][56] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The feed enterprise's corn inventory days have increased, and the deep - processing enterprise's inventory has decreased slightly. The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term [57][58] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's copper export increased in October. The copper price is affected by macro - expectations and inventory structures, and it is recommended to go long on dips [59][62][63] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company has reduced its stake in Tianhe光能. The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in November [64][65][66] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises'开机 rate is weak. The industrial silicon price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long on dips [67][68] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company has won a large lithium project contract. The lithium demand is strong, but the supply is also increasing. The short - term price will fluctuate, and consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [69][72][74] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia plans to complete the feasibility study of 18 downstream projects in December and has stopped approving some nickel intermediate product plants. The nickel price is affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [75][77][78] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount. The recycled lead industry is in the stage of large - scale resumption of production, and the short - term supply and demand will be strong. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [79][80] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc is at a premium. The LME zinc may face a short - squeeze risk, and the domestic zinc inventory has decreased. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [81] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is affected by weather and power - price policies and will fluctuate in the short - term [82][83] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count remains unchanged. The US will exempt Hungary from sanctions on importing Russian oil. The oil price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [84][85][86] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the futures market is affected by supply - side factors. The short - term futures will be volatile and strong, but be cautious about the upside space [87][88] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - The bottle chip factory's export price is stable. The supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and consider shorting the far - month processing margin on rallies [91][92] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - India has issued a new urea import tender. The urea futures have rebounded due to export policy changes and replenishment demand. It will fluctuate within a certain range [93][94] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The new - shipbuilding market is active. The SCFI index has declined, and the container freight rate will fluctuate in the short - term, and monitor the spot price changes [95][96]

Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market is transitioning from intensity control to total control during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a focus on total carbon emission control [2] - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries in the carbon trading market is expected to enhance their green and low-carbon transformation [2][3] - By 2027, priority will be given to implementing total quota control for industries with relatively stable carbon emissions [2] Group 2: Low-Carbon Investment and Technology Innovation - The carbon market has driven low-carbon investments and accelerated the innovation and promotion of green technologies [3] - The overall reduction cost in the power generation sector has decreased by approximately 35 billion yuan through carbon trading in the first two compliance cycles [3] - The expansion of the carbon market will encourage more enterprises to reduce carbon emissions through technological innovation and management efficiency improvements [3] Group 3: Voluntary Carbon Market Growth - The national voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market has entered a critical phase of rapid development, with 31 projects registered and a total transaction volume of 3.25 million tons of CCER [4][5] - The market has established a framework for management systems, technical methods, and infrastructure, enhancing the integrity and standardization of voluntary reduction projects [4] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively soliciting opinions on various voluntary reduction project methodologies to support diverse project development [4][5] Group 4: Carbon Footprint Management System - The average carbon footprint factor for electricity in 2024 is reported to be 0.5777 kg CO2 equivalent per kWh, a 6.9% decrease from 2023 [6][7] - The establishment of a product carbon footprint management system is a key focus for deepening ecological civilization reforms [6] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to continue enhancing the research and publication of carbon footprint factors for electricity and other key products [7]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasize a transition towards green and low-carbon development, with a focus on carbon peak and carbon neutrality as guiding principles for policy formulation [1][2][6] Group 1: Green Transition and Policy Changes - The transition from pollution control to green low-carbon transformation is highlighted in recent policy statements, indicating a fundamental shift in environmental governance tools [2] - The dual control system for carbon emissions will replace the previous energy consumption control, marking a significant change in China's approach to environmental management [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to implement energy-saving and carbon reduction actions in key industries, targeting a reduction of approximately 400 million tons of CO2 emissions [2][3] Group 2: Development of Green Low-Carbon Industries - The scale of China's green low-carbon industry is currently estimated at 11 trillion yuan, with potential for significant growth in the next five years [3] - The plan includes the establishment of around 100 national-level zero-carbon parks, which will provide substantial growth opportunities for the green low-carbon sector [3] - A comprehensive carbon emission accounting system will be developed, alongside an expansion of the national carbon trading market, to facilitate investment in efficient emission reduction technologies [3][5] Group 3: New Energy System and Infrastructure - The adjustment of the energy structure aims to increase the proportion of clean energy supply, with a projected annual addition of 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar capacity over the next decade [4][5] - The construction of a new energy system will focus on integrated energy infrastructure, including pumped storage and smart grids, to enhance energy supply security and resilience [5] - The green certificate market has seen significant progress, with 4.46 billion green certificates traded in 2024, indicating a successful development of the green trading market [5][6] Group 4: Environmental Protection and Circular Economy - The plan outlines actions for solid waste management and environmental risk prevention, aiming to extend the environmental protection industry from end-of-pipe treatment to comprehensive pollution reduction [6][7] - The target for the utilization of major solid waste is set at 4.5 billion tons by 2030, promoting the development of a circular economy [7] - Policies will be implemented to support green low-carbon development across various sectors, indicating a shift towards systemic economic transformation [7]

Core Insights - The national carbon market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with a significant drop of 10.37% in October, closing at 51.96 yuan per ton [1] - The trading volume in October reached 41.5625 million tons, showing a nearly 30% increase despite fewer trading days compared to September [1] - The average closing price for carbon emission allowances (CEA) in October was approximately 54.76 yuan per ton, down 12.4% from September [1] Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in carbon prices are attributed to market forces such as supply and demand, market expectations, trading behaviors, and psychological factors [2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to enhance the carbon market's pricing function and optimize resource allocation for carbon reduction [2] Future Developments - The national carbon market aims to expand its coverage to major industrial sectors by 2027 and shift from intensity control to total volume control [3] - There will be a gradual tightening of allowances, enhancing their scarcity to better reflect the true cost of emissions reduction [3] - Efforts will be made to develop a voluntary emission reduction trading market and increase the market's vitality through green financial products [3]