2025年，温室气体自愿减排项目方法学制定发布工作加快推进，共发布油田气回收利用、盐沼植被修复 等12项方法学，市场迎来快速扩容。 同时，自愿减排项目及减排量登记工作扎实开展，截至2025年12月底，已登记自愿减排项目33个，减排 量1776.37万吨。核证自愿减排量累计成交量921.94万吨，成交额6.50亿元，全年交易均价为70.76元/ 吨。注册登记系统累计开户6106家，涵盖项目业主、重点排放单位、金融机构等法人组织。 责任编辑：刘础琪 记者近日从生态环境部获悉：2025年，全国碳市场运行平稳有序，市场活力稳步提升。碳排放权交易市 场重点排放单位碳减排意识持续加强，配额清缴完成情况保持在高水平，温室气体自愿减排交易市场支 持领域进一步扩大，市场迎来快速扩容。全国碳市场推动全社会实现低成本减排功能不断显现。 2025年，纳入碳排放权交易市场配额管理的重点排放单位共计3378家，其中发电行业重点排放单位2087 家，钢铁行业重点排放单位232家，水泥行业重点排放单位962家，铝冶炼行业重点排放单位97家，市场 共运行243个交易日。截至2025年12月底，全国碳排放权交易市场配额累计成交量8.65亿吨，累 ...

特朗普考虑动用美军夺取格陵兰岛 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-07 日度报告——综合晨报 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 白宫：特朗普考虑动用美军夺取格陵兰岛 白宫表态特朗普考虑动用武力夺取格陵兰岛，全球地缘风险潜 在继续上升，美元指数短期震荡。 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储官员米兰：预计数据将支持进一步降息 综 金价延续涨势，贵金属其他板块以及有色金属大涨，委内瑞拉 局势动荡强化了市场对于逆全球化的交易逻辑，资金对大宗商 品的做多意愿增加。美国推进收购格林兰岛加剧避险情绪。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 央行：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策 报 A 股开年极其强势，沪指突破去年高点。市场进入多头行情中， 题材热点频出。展望后市，成交量依然是关键的衡量指标。短 期内仍建议多头持有。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 邯郸市解除重污染天气应急响应 随着钢厂检修暂歇，铁水产量小幅提升，对成材库存仍会形成 一定压力，出口的变化也需要关注。不过由于矛盾积累不够充 分，市场情绪变化较大，短期预计仍会延续区间震荡格局。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 磷酸铁锂新年度价格谈判首批落地 整体市场情绪对利多信息更为敏感，盘面 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：易碳家） 日期 收盘价 (元/吨) 最高价(元/吨) 最低价(元/吨) 成交量 (万吨) 成交额 (亿元) 2025/12/29 1.28 2025/12/30 3.07 日期 开盘价 (元/吨) 收盘价 (元/吨) 最高价 2025/12/31 0.73 总计 5.08 (元/吨) 最低价 (元/吨) 成交量 | (吨) | | --- | | 成交额 | | (元) | | 2025/12/29 | | 2005 | | 2025/12/30 | | 43 | | 2025/12/31 | | 242 | | 总计 | | 2290 | | 成交量 | | (万吨) | | 成交额 | | (万元) | | 成交均价 | | (元/吨) | | 湖北 | | 0.23 | | 7.31 | | 广东 | | 0 | | 深圳 | | 0 | | 0 | | 1.54 | | 福建 | | 0 | 0 四川 | 一级市场 | | --- | 二级市场 成交量(万吨) 成交额(亿元) 全国 湖北 4.31 广东 9.95 6.28 福建 3.07 深圳 0.32 1.48 9.11 3 ...

·商务部回应欧盟碳边境调节机制：坚决采取一切必要措施回应任何不公平贸易限制 ·惠及超3.6亿人次！2025年以旧换新相关商品销售额超2.6万亿元 ·2025年全国碳市场平稳有序运行温室气体自愿减排交易市场支持领域进一步扩大 ·记者1日从商务部获悉，2025年，以旧换新相关商品销售额超2.6万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。具体来看，2025年，汽车以旧换新超1150万辆， 家电以旧换新超1.29亿件，手机等数码产品购新超9100万部，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件，电动自行车以旧换新超1250万辆。（新华社） ·记者从国网吉林省电力有限公司获悉，截至2025年12月31日，吉林省当年全社会用电量达到1012亿千瓦时，首次突破1000亿千瓦时大关。其 中，第一产业、第二产业、第三产业、居民用电量增速分别达到13.8%、4.4%、10.5%和6.4%。（新华财经） ·商务部新闻发言人1月1日表示，欧盟近日密集发布欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）相关立法提案与实施细则，包括设定碳排放强度默认值、 计划扩大产品覆盖范围等内容。其中，欧方无视中国绿色低碳发展取得的巨大成效，对中国产品碳排放强度设定显著偏高的基础默认值，并将 在未 ...

•惠及超3.6亿人次！2025年以旧换新相关商品销售额超2.6万亿元 •商务部回应欧盟碳边境调节机制：坚决采取一切必要措施回应任何不公平贸易限制 •2025年全国碳市场平稳有序运行 温室气体自愿减排交易市场支持领域进一步扩大 •记者1日从商务部获悉，2025年，以旧换新相关商品销售额超2.6万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。具体来看，2025年，汽车以旧换新超1150万辆，家电以旧换新 超1.29亿件，手机等数码产品购新超9100万部，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件，电动自行车以旧换新超1250万辆。（新华社） •商务部新闻发言人1月1日表示，欧盟近日密集发布欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）相关立法提案与实施细则，包括设定碳排放强度默认值、计划扩大产品 覆盖范围等内容。其中，欧方无视中国绿色低碳发展取得的巨大成效，对中国产品碳排放强度设定显著偏高的基础默认值，并将在未来三年内逐年提高，这 不符合中国当前实际水平和未来发展趋势，对中方构成不公平、歧视性待遇。中方愿与欧方相向而行，合作应对全球气候变化挑战，但将坚决采取一切必要 措施，回应任何不公平的贸易限制，维护自身发展利益、中国企业合法权益和全球产业链供应链的稳定。（新 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in 2025 is operating smoothly and steadily, with increasing market vitality and a high level of compliance in quota clearance [1][2] - The carbon emissions trading market is showing a low-cost reduction function for society, with significant growth in both the volume and value of transactions [1] Group 1: Carbon Emissions Trading Market - In 2025, a total of 3,378 key emission units are included in the carbon emissions trading market, with 2,087 from the power generation sector, 232 from the steel sector, 962 from the cement sector, and 97 from the aluminum smelting sector [1] - The cumulative transaction volume of carbon emission rights reached 865 million tons by December 31, 2025, with a cumulative transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan [1] - The transaction volume for the year 2025 was 235 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, with a transaction value of 14.630 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction market is expanding rapidly, with 12 methodologies published for projects such as oilfield gas recovery and salt marsh vegetation restoration [2] - By the end of December 2025, 33 voluntary emission reduction projects were registered, with a total reduction volume of 17.7637 million tons [2] - The cumulative transaction volume of verified voluntary reduction amounts reached 9.2194 million tons, with a transaction value of 650 million yuan and an average transaction price of 70.76 yuan per ton [2]

碳排放权交易市场配额清缴完成情况保持在高水平。 刚刚过去的2025年，全国碳市场运行平稳有序，市场活力稳步提升，交易价格保持在合理区间。 生态环境部官方微信公号2025年12月31日晚公布的信息显示，2025年，全国碳市场运行平稳有序，市场 活力稳步提升。碳排放权交易市场重点排放单位碳减排意识持续加强，配额清缴完成情况保持在高水 平。同时，温室气体自愿减排交易市场支持领域进一步扩大，市场迎来快速扩容。全国碳市场推动全社 会实现低成本减排功能不断显现。 2025年，纳入碳排放权交易市场配额管理的重点排放单位共计3378家，其中发电行业重点排放单位2087 家，钢铁行业重点排放单位232家，水泥行业重点排放单位962家，铝冶炼行业重点排放单位97家，市场 共运行243个交易日。 2025年12月31日晚，湖北碳排放交易中心介绍，湖北绿色金融综合服务平台（鄂绿通）累计实现融资额 2091亿元。"武碳江湖"个人低碳生活平台用户突破200万，累计记录低碳行为超3000万次，成为全国使 用人数最多、低碳场景最全、社会覆盖面最广的碳普惠平台。 上海环境能源交易所2025年12月31日发布新修订的《上海碳市场交易规则》等制度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continues to impact various markets, causing uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and commodity markets [1][11][18]. - Market sentiment and trading volumes are affected by holidays such as Christmas and New Year, leading to relatively light trading and narrow - range fluctuations in some markets [1][2]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some commodities are expected to be affected by supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and cost factors, resulting in price fluctuations and investment opportunities [25][36][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key issue in the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" regarding territory remains unresolved. After Christmas, overseas market trading is light. On Friday, gold price rose 1%, and silver price soared 10% due to a short - squeeze. The short - squeeze may be nearing its end. With the New Year's holiday approaching and the exchange increasing margin requirements, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [1][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as the territorial issue remains unresolved, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the market is trading lightly, the year - end seasonal performance of US stocks is strong, and the market risk appetite remains high. US stocks are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan. The problem of fragile institutional trading behavior is being alleviated, and long - term bonds are in the process of bottom - building. It is not recommended to chase short - term varieties. Long - term varieties are suitable for allocation when interest rates rise, and trading positions can buy on dips and exit quickly [20][21]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. The market sentiment is positive, and it is recommended to allocate evenly in long positions of each stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of December 20 - 26, 2025, the actual soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills decreased. In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased. Although palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in December, the supply pressure is gradually easing. It is recommended to wait for further signals of supply pressure release before going long on palm oil. For international and domestic soybean oil, there are potential factors for price increases, but the impact may be limited due to sufficient inventory [25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills in January 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year. The domestic market is mainly affected by customs policies and national reserves. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to these two factors, which will mainly affect the unilateral trend of the March contract and the 3 - 5 spread [27][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease by 5%. Thailand's sugar production progress is slow, and the international sugar market's supply - demand may tighten in the first quarter. However, the overall supply surplus expectation limits the upward driving force. Domestically, new sugar production is accelerating, and the upward space of the market is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas market's driving effect and the terminal's stocking demand [31][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season. As of December 11, the weekly signing data of US upland cotton was strong, but the export signing progress for the 25/26 season still lags. Zhengzhou cotton has increased in position and broken through previous highs, mainly due to speculation on the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the rise of chemical fiber futures prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream transmission situation and the risk of a decline due to capital withdrawal [34][36][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate. The de - stocking speed of the five major steel products has not changed significantly, and the finished products have not yet entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the export policy changes at the beginning of the year. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [41][42]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro and capital factors continue to drive copper prices up, and the short - term upward momentum is not weak. The fundamental situation deviates from the capital situation. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, and a long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term [45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the inventory is rising. In the off - season of demand from January to February, polysilicon may be "priced but not traded", but the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips and hold positions carefully [47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in some regions has changed slightly, and the inventory is increasing. The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to sell short on rebounds [50]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The spot price difference of lead is in a discount state. The supply of recycled lead may be tightened due to environmental protection. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the inventory is declining. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased, and the demand has recovered slightly. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in January. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and easy to rise but difficult to fall in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A company has terminated a nickel project. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the nickel production quota and the tax - calculation formula, which may increase the smelting cost. The nickel market is currently in surplus, and it is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits and pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [59][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium carbonate has risen sharply, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply may decline slightly in January, and the demand side has many production - reduction and maintenance news. It is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits, not chase the high, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [64][65]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. The expected reduction of quota supply in 2026 is expected to support the price in the long - term, but short - term profit - taking by some investors may suppress the upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia has extended the export ban on gasoline and diesel to February 2026. Geopolitical conflicts and supply - surplus expectations are disturbing the market. Oil prices are expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the process of verifying the surplus [68][69][70]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of polyester bottle chips have risen, and the market trading atmosphere is good. With the commissioning of new devices and the restart of previously overhauled devices, the processing cost pressure may increase. The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the rise of polyester raw materials [71][73].

日度报告——综合晨报 以色列警告可能再次打击伊朗，央行开展 1771 亿元逆回购 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-26 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 以色列警告可能再次打击伊朗 以色列对伊朗发动打击的可能性明显上升，因此需要关注地缘 风险的变化，美元指数短期震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 1771 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 综 央行增加购债规模的概率较大，机构交易结构较为脆弱的问题 正在得到缓解，且近期稳增长政策也相对有限，长债震荡转涨 的概率较高。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 前 11 月新开工改造老旧小区已完成全年计划 报 A 股延续上涨，沪指录得 7 连阳，全 A 成交额稳定在 1.9 万亿左 右。商业航天、存储芯片等题材涨幅较大。预计沪指将在短期 内冲击 4000 点。 黑色金属（铁矿石） 1-11 月全国新开工改造城镇老旧小区 2.58 万个 本周铁水预计继续下行 1-2 万吨，市场关注 1 月份铁水是否继续 下滑。本周五大材库存明显去化，非五大材库存小幅攀升。预 计短期基本面仍将承压，以弱势震荡为主。 有色金属（锡） 美未来 18 个月不对中国芯片加征额外关税 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, with the US API crude oil inventory rising. Market risk appetite has rebounded, and various asset classes show different trends [1][6]. - A-shares are in a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume, potentially accumulating momentum for a cross - year market [23]. - The bond market is approaching a critical point, with a higher probability of short - term adjustment than direct upward movement [25]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, and gold prices first declined and then rose. Gold and silver are still in an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the risks and increased volatility caused by short - term profit - taking of long positions [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025. The market risk appetite has rebounded, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [12][14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Q3 GDP growth was the fastest in two years. The market risk appetite remains high, and the US stock market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward trend [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume on December 23. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [21][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 59.3 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan on the day. The long - term varieties are bottom - building. It is recommended that allocation investors buy when interest rates rise, and trading investors buy at low prices and exit quickly [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal prices in the Changzhi market showed mixed trends. Currently, coking coal supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream restocking [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Turkey imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese tin - plated coils. The global crude steel output in November decreased by 4.6% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a volatile trading strategy [29][31][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - A major shareholder of Juxing Agriculture pledged 18.5 million shares. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure remains unchanged. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 03 contract and consider long positions for far - month contracts at low prices [34]. 2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts was adjusted. The polysilicon inventory is still accumulating, and demand is weak. It is expected that the spot price may be difficult to fall, but it depends on whether the price increase can be passed on to downstream industries. It is recommended that investors hold positions cautiously [35][36][38]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The designated delivery warehouse and quality inspection institution of industrial silicon futures were adjusted. The supply and demand of industrial silicon depend on the production reduction rhythm of enterprises. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [38][41][42]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and it is recommended to trade with a volatile strategy [43]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc had a backwardation. The short - term fundamentals of zinc are not highly contradictory, and it is recommended to buy on dips and hold positive spreads and conduct reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [44][45]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Exar applied for incentives for capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is supported, but there is a callback risk after the resumption of production by large enterprises. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium and long term [47][48]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports in November increased significantly. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026. It is recommended to go long on dips if cobalt pricing is implemented, and short at high prices if the production quota expectations are not met [49][50][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin had a contango. The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and demand is weak. Inventory accumulation is a short - term pressure on prices. It is necessary to be vigilant against price drops [53][54][57]. 2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices rebounded due to increased market risk appetite and geopolitical risks. Short - term oil prices will be disturbed by geopolitical conflicts [58][59]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price rose on December 23. The short - term market risk is high [60][61]. 2.13 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - ZIM rejected the management's acquisition offer. The freight rate increase was not realized, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [62][63].