Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a significant step towards the comprehensive deepening and acceleration of the national carbon market, providing direction for institutional innovation and operational optimization, which is crucial for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Structure - The national carbon trading market consists of a mandatory carbon trading market and a voluntary emission reduction market, which are interconnected through quota clearing and offset mechanisms, each with its own focus and independent operation [2] - The carbon pricing mechanism is central to the carbon trading market policy, with quota allocation being a key factor influencing carbon pricing [2] Group 2: Quota Allocation and Control - Currently, carbon quotas are primarily allocated for free, based on carbon emission intensity and actual production, to avoid limiting production and impacting economic growth [2] - As more carbon emitters are included in the market, the focus will gradually shift from controlling carbon intensity to controlling total carbon emissions, transitioning from free allocation to a combination of free and paid allocation methods [2] Group 3: Monitoring and Verification - A robust monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system is essential for accurately determining historical carbon emissions and their changes over time, which supports the effective implementation of the carbon market [3] - Improving the quality of carbon emission data through comprehensive regulation and automated monitoring is a key direction for enhancing carbon accounting and reporting management [3] Group 4: Green Technology and Economic Transition - Companies can promote green technology research and application through low-carbon production methods, creating a virtuous cycle of emission reduction, revenue generation, and reinvestment in research [4] - The transition to low-carbon industries can be facilitated by eliminating outdated production capacity and fostering the development of clean energy, low-carbon equipment manufacturing, and carbon consulting [4] - The establishment of a comprehensive voluntary certification methodology for emission reduction projects will provide stronger momentum for achieving green and low-carbon goals in the future [4]

国家自主贡献（下称"NDC目标"）是各国根据各自国情和发展阶段确定的应对气候变化行动 目标。 多名受访人士向21世纪经济报道表示：新一轮NDC目标，详细阐述了我国在应对气候变化 方面的自主承诺，将为减少全球温室气体排放提供有力支撑。同时，碳市场是行业碳排放 管控的重要手段，有了总量目标，会使得全国碳市场更高效地实现价格发现。 记者丨李德尚玉 编辑丨张星 全国碳排放权交易市场运行已有四年多。自2021年7月16日上线以来，全国碳市场已覆盖电力 行业2200余家重点排放单位，成为全球覆盖温室气体排放量最大的碳市场。经过3个履约周 期，碳市场的制度体系不断完善，市场机制愈加成熟。2025年，全国碳市场取得新突破，钢 铁、水泥、铝冶炼三大行业扩围，首批核证自愿减排量（CCER）正式签发。 据新华社消息，在9月24日联合国气候变化峰会上，中国宣布了新一轮国家自主贡献：到2035 年，中国全经济范围温室气体净排放量比峰值下降7%~10%，力争做得更好。非化石能源消费 占能源消费总量的比重达到30%以上，风电和太阳能发电总装机容量达到2020年的6倍以上、 力争达到36亿千瓦，森林蓄积量达到240亿立方米以上，新能源汽车成 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has become the largest carbon trading market globally, covering a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions [1][4] - The cumulative transaction volume of the carbon market has exceeded 49 billion yuan, with nearly 720 million tons of carbon allowances traded [2] - The market has expanded its coverage to include industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The carbon market's trading scale reached a historical high since 2024, indicating increased market vitality [2] - The "waste-to-energy" system implemented in the cement industry can consume over 150,000 tons of solid waste annually, reducing carbon emissions by approximately 300,000 tons [2] Group 2: Policy and Strategic Development - A central document was issued in August to accelerate the construction of a unified national carbon market, outlining key tasks and action plans [3] - The national carbon market conference serves as a platform to share China's experiences with emerging economies, promoting the adoption of carbon market mechanisms for green development [3] Group 3: International Recognition - The achievements of China's carbon market have been recognized by international guests, highlighting its role in optimizing resource allocation and guiding industry emissions reductions [4] - The European Union has expressed admiration for China's leadership in green transformation and renewable energy deployment [5] - International organizations acknowledge China's positive experiences in green development, which inspire confidence in global emission reduction efforts [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy showed resilience in Q2 with an upward - revised GDP growth rate, which led to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The bond market at the end of September is more likely to fluctuate rather than decline unilaterally. In the commodity market, different products have different trends due to various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed official Goolsbee said the job market is cooling while inflation is rising. Trump plans to increase tariffs on kitchenware and other products starting from October 1, 2025. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%. Gold prices fluctuated and rose with increased intraday volatility. Short - term gold prices are expected to remain high, but there is a risk of correction due to profit - taking [9][10][11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on brand and patented drugs and 25% tariffs on imported heavy - duty trucks from October 1, 2025. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, and the August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% month - on - month. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts decreased, and the risk appetite declined. Short - term US stocks are expected to continue to adjust [13][15][16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to the lowest level since July. Fed official Bowman believes that the weakening job market justifies further interest - rate cuts. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, indicating economic resilience and leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index [18][19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor supports the implementation of offshore bond repurchase business in Hong Kong. The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 25, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan. The bond market at the end of September is more likely to fluctuate, and it is expected to continue to find the bottom in the first half of October and may stabilize and rise in the second half [22][23][24] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Argentina resumed the export withholding tax on grains and other agricultural products. The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report on September 30. After the end of Argentina's export tax - exemption policy, the prices of domestic and foreign futures contracts stabilized and are expected to resume a fluctuating trend [26][27][29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 11.31% month - on - month. Argentina resumed the export tax on grains and by - products. The global oil market rebounded, and the trading focus may return to the US biofuel policy. It is recommended to control positions before the National Day holiday [30][31][32] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - September 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the daily output of pig iron increased by 0.7% and that of steel products increased by 5.4%. As of September 25, the inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound before the holiday [33][34][35] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates decreased slightly. The futures price of the main contract closed higher. The supply in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand in the distribution areas is stable. The price is under pressure due to high inventory and weak consumption, and the fundamentals are bearish [37][38] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch by starch sugar products decreased this week. The opening rate of North China's starch plants increased, and the inventory decreased seasonally. The downstream demand is weak, but the price of the 11 - contract has rebounded recently. It is recommended to widen the price difference between corn and starch at low prices [39][40] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 24, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises decreased by 9.49%. The old - crop inventory is decreasing, and the 11 - contract is relatively strong, while the far - month contracts are weak. The new corn is expected to have a good harvest, and the price is expected to be bearish in the medium term [40][41] 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On September 25, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The market trading was dull, and the price increase was limited. After the pre - holiday replenishment, the coal price is expected to remain in a fluctuating range around the long - term agreement price [42] 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon made key progress. The iron ore price continued to fluctuate. Steel mills maintained low - volume replenishment before the holiday, and the price was supported. The fundamentals are in a dilemma, and the price is expected to remain in a fluctuating range [44] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology revised the subscription agreement for issuing new shares. The price of polysilicon increased this week, and the production in October is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation is tight, and the price is expected to be difficult to fall in October. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells increased, but the component price remained stable. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [45][46][47] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China announced new climate goals. Last week, there were no new furnace openings or closures. The southern silicon plants may reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to increase slightly in September - October and decrease slightly in November - December. It is recommended to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [49][50] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia announced the conditions for 190 mines to resume operations. The nickel ore price is firm, and the MHP price is strong. The global pure nickel inventory is high, and the nickel price lacks upward momentum. However, there are potential supply disturbances, and the low - valued nickel price has long - term bullish allocation value. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [51][52] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 24, the LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $40.08 per ton. The downstream enterprises continued to stock up before the holiday, and the lead ingot social inventory continued to decline. The LME lead price fluctuated narrowly, and the Shanghai lead price strengthened. The lead price is expected to fluctuate upward [53][54] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Galvanized sheet enterprises plan to maintain normal production during the National Day holiday. As of September 25, the seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. The LME zinc price rebounded, and the Shanghai zinc price has support before the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [55][56][57] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The battery - grade lithium carbonate project of Tibet Zabuye Salt Lake was officially put into production. The market is currently in a strong de - stocking reality. The price is expected to be under pressure before the actual resumption of production, and it may enter a downward channel after the demand peak. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [58] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of September 25, the weekly commercial volume of Chinese LPG increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased while the port inventory decreased. The price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation range [59][60][61] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PX) - On September 25, the PX price increased. Some domestic PX plants may postpone maintenance and expand production in Q4, and the PTA maintenance plan in Q4 increased. The PX inventory is expected to change from de - stocking to stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [63][64] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the basis remained stable. The terminal orders increased slightly, and the PTA inventory is expected to decrease slightly in September - October and increase in November. The price is expected to fluctuate, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [65][66][67] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - As of September 19, the US natural gas inventory increased by 75 Bcf week - on - week. The natural gas price is expected to be supported in early winter but may be under pressure later. The European natural gas inventory accumulation rate slowed down, and the price may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On September 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong had sporadic changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to weaken in the later stage. The downward space of the futures price is limited [70][71] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mostly stable. The futures price of the main contract continued to rise. The fundamentals of pulp are not good, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [72][73][74] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder market fluctuated strongly. The futures price fluctuated strongly, but the downstream procurement was not active. The fundamentals are weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. The impact of domestic policy support should be monitored [75] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, the output of Chinese styrene decreased slightly. The styrene price fluctuated narrowly, and the basis weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [76][77][79] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - China announced the 2035 carbon - reduction target, and the "National Carbon Market Development Report (2025)" was released. The trading volume of the national carbon market did not increase significantly, and the price stabilized. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the CEA price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [80][81][82] 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Hapag - Lloyd announced a price increase starting from October 15. The European line futures price continued to be strong. The price increase may not be implemented, and the price is expected to be affected by funds and sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly [83][84]

Group 1 - As of the end of August, the national carbon emissions trading market has a cumulative transaction volume of 696 million tons and a transaction value of 47.826 billion yuan, with the 2024 transaction value reaching a new annual high since the market's launch in 2021 [3] - The national carbon market, which started online trading on July 16, 2021, is the largest carbon market globally in terms of greenhouse gas emissions coverage, initially including 2,162 enterprises in the power generation sector and covering a carbon quota of 4.5 billion tons [3] - Following the market's expansion in May, approximately 1,500 key emission units from the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries were added, increasing the total carbon emissions coverage to 8 billion tons, accounting for over 60% of the national total [3] Group 2 - The national carbon market has enhanced companies' awareness of low-carbon development, with significant improvements in carbon emission control capabilities [5] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that the carbon emission intensity of the national power sector decreased by 10.8% in 2024 compared to 2018 [5] - The trading scale of the national carbon market reached a historical high, with increased participation willingness from trading entities and a gradual enrichment of trading products and methods [5] Group 3 - The China Carbon Registration and Settlement System (referred to as "Zhong Carbon") is the core infrastructure of the national carbon market, responsible for registration, settlement, and clearing functions [3] - Zhong Carbon has completed 20 system upgrades and implemented quantum encryption technology to ensure data security, achieving nearly 1,000 billion yuan in cumulative clearing amounts with zero errors in settlements [4] - Baosteel Co., Ltd. has been active in carbon trading since 2013, successfully implementing 270 energy-saving projects from 2022 to 2024, resulting in a reduction of 2.59 million tons of carbon emissions [4]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is experiencing significant growth, with over 1,300 new key emission units added, leading to an increase in total greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 3 billion tons, now covering over 60% of the national CO2 emissions [1] - As of August 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market reached 696 million tons, with a total transaction value of 47.826 billion yuan [1] - The market is becoming more active, with a 44% increase in daily trading volume compared to the previous compliance cycle, and a total transaction value of 18 billion yuan in 2024, the highest since the market's inception [2] Market Activity - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries has led to 1,277 new trading accounts being opened by key emission units as of August 2025 [2] - The trading willingness among key emission units has increased, with total buy and sell orders in the market rising by 232% year-on-year [2] - The average closing price of carbon credits was 69.30 yuan per ton as of August 2025, maintaining a reasonable range despite a global decline in carbon prices [2] Green Transition - The carbon market has played a crucial role in reducing carbon intensity in the power sector, which decreased by 10.8% from 2018 to 2024 [3] - A total of 564 key emission units in the power sector have achieved surplus quotas, amounting to 58.25 million tons, translating to approximately 4 billion yuan in revenue based on the average closing price [3] Policy Support - The central government has issued a comprehensive policy document aimed at advancing the national carbon market, with goals to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 and establish a robust trading system by 2030 [4] - The People's Bank of China is enhancing the green finance system to support the transition to a low-carbon economy [4] Data Governance - The establishment of a refined management process is seen as a key indicator of the maturity of the carbon market's data governance system [5] - Recommendations include developing cross-border carbon trading management measures to support international trading [5]

"自愿减排交易市场要针对可持续发展效益显著、社会期待高、社会和生态效益兼具的重点领域，加快 方法学开发，强化自愿减排项目开发、审定实施及减排量核查等全链条管理，积极推动核证自愿减排量 应用。要丰富交易产品，扩展交易主体，着力提升碳市场活力，加强碳排放数据质量全过程监管。"李 高表示。 李高表示，全国碳市场顶层设计已进一步完善。今年8月25日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅发布 《关于推进绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意见》（下称"《意见》"），这是我国碳市场领域第一 份中央文件，对全面推进全国碳市场建设作出系统部署，明确碳市场的基本定位、总体要求，制定了全 国碳市场发展目标和重点工作任务。 《意见》提出，碳市场是利用市场机制积极应对气候变化、加快经济社会发展、全面绿色转型的重要政 策工具。 主要目标是：到2027年，全国碳排放权交易市场基本覆盖工业领域主要排放行业，对碳排放总量相对稳 定的行业，优先实施配额总量控制。自愿减排交易市场实现重点领域全覆盖，支持生态系统碳汇、可再 生能源、甲烷利用、节能、提高能效、碳捕集利用与封存等领域低碳、零碳、负碳技术发展。 此外，到2030年，基本建成以配额总量控制为基础，免 ...

近期，我国碳市场领域迎来首份中央文件。中办、国办发布的《关于推进绿色低碳转型加强全国碳 市场建设的意见》（以下简称《意见》），明确了全国碳市场中长期发展的时间表、路线图、任务书， 并要求加强碳排放核算与报告管理，完善信息披露制度。 《意见》明确全国碳市场是实现"双碳"目标的重要制度抓手，提升了碳市场在国家气候治理体系中 的战略地位。同时，《意见》在市场层面提出扩大覆盖行业、完善配额分配、健全市场机制。特别是在 金融层面，将逐步丰富交易产品，扩展交易主体，强化金融机构参与，同时强调风险可控。 今年是全国碳市场正式运行四周年，业内人士普遍认为，《意见》为全国碳市场从"起步期"迈 向"深化期"划定了航道。兴业碳金融研究院首席研究员钱立华表示，《意见》的发布为我国碳市场的中 远期发展提供了清晰的发展规划，标志着碳市场建设进入全面深化阶段。 其中，碳排放核算与信息披露制度的系统性重构，不仅是衔接强制减排与自愿减排双市场的关键纽 带，更成为破解当前市场数据质量瓶颈、激活碳价信号功能的核心抓手。在行业总量控制节点临近的背 景下，这两大制度的落地正深刻重塑企业低碳转型逻辑与市场运行生态。 从强度基准法到总量管控 配额分配再优 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose strong tariffs on Russia, and Powell emphasizes employment and inflation risks. Gold prices are driven up by Fed's potential rate - cut expectations and Trump's tariff sanctions, but there is a risk of correction before the National Day holiday in China [13][14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of price correction in the short term [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Three Fed officials think setting an inflation target range is more beneficial. Trump believes Ukraine can retake all its territory, and Powell says US stocks are "valued quite high". The US dollar index is expected to be weak in the short term [16][17][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Wang Yi meets with US congressmen, and China's education reaches the average level of high - income countries. The A - share market shows a V - shaped reversal with increased trading volume, and the technology sector remains resilient. Short - term attention should be paid to trading volume changes [20][21]. - Investment advice: Consider moderate profit - taking [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. US September Markit manufacturing and services PMI decline. Powell mentions that the stock market is over - valued, and there may be short - term fluctuations, but the overall outlook is still positive [23][24][27]. - Investment advice: Although valuation concerns may cause short - term disturbances, maintain a bullish view overall [28]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.09 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is in a weak sentiment, and short - term trading should follow a range - bound strategy [29]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term and avoid chasing up [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Domestic soybean mills' operating rates and soybean crushing volumes during the National Day holiday are reported, and some mills in Guangdong stop production due to a typhoon. Argentina suspends export taxes on grains and oilseed meals, affecting the market [32][33]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to whether M2601 can be effectively supported at 2900 [34]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreases. Argentina's tax - exemption policy impacts the global oil market, but short - term oversold rebound opportunities can be considered [35][36][37]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term oversold rebound opportunities in the P2601 contract, but control positions [37]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Muyuan Co., Ltd. establishes an overseas business team. The pig market is in a negative feedback stage, with the short - term trend following the spot market and a medium - long - term view of shorting on rebounds [38]. - Investment advice: Short on rebounds unilaterally and continuously monitor reverse spreads [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. With the approaching of the new corn season, the market expects a bumper harvest and normal listing, and the mid - term view is bearish [40]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions [40]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The total new contracts signed by five major construction central enterprises in the first eight months exceed 4.7 trillion yuan, and the average construction machinery operating rate in August is 43.42%. Steel prices are range - bound with limited upward and downward space [41][42]. - Investment advice: Expect a range - bound rebound before the holiday, but the space is limited [43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - China's corn starch exports in August decline. The price of raw corn stops falling, and the export demand is not expected to have a significant positive impact on the fundamentals [44]. - Investment advice: The long - term supply - demand situation of starch is bearish for the corn - starch price spread, but pay attention to potential changes in the regional price spread after the large - scale listing of Northeast corn [44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are growing normally, and the futures price of the main contract CJ601 shows a small increase. The price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [45][46]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to be range - bound, and pay attention to the development of jujube fruits and purchasing situation [46]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is expected to start in stages by the end of 2025. The alumina market has an oversupply problem, and the import pressure is increasing [47][48]. - Investment advice: Short on rallies [49]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic component tender sets a price limit. Polysilicon prices are expected to be range - bound, and the spot price is not expected to fall in October. The component price is expected to be range - bound, and the terminal demand may decline [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The polysilicon price is expected to be range - bound between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and consider going long at the current level [53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's silicon wafer exports in August increase. The market is expected to accumulate inventory in September - October and reduce inventory in November - December. The strategy of going long on dips has a higher probability of success [54][55]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing up [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - High US tariffs disrupt the stainless - steel market. The nickel market has potential supply - side disturbances, and the low - valued nickel has long - term investment value. Consider positive spreads [56]. - Investment advice: The global nickel inventory is high, but low - valued nickel has long - term investment value. Consider positive spreads [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India initiates an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese copper cables. The macro - support for copper prices weakens, but the inventory accumulation pressure eases. Copper prices are expected to continue to be range - bound at a high level [57][61]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - sided trading, and be cautious during the holiday. Also, wait and see for arbitrage [61]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company plans to issue bonds for debt refinancing, and a lithium carbonate project is put into production. The market is in a de - stocking stage, and the price may fall after the demand peak [62][63][64]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious when shorting in the short term, and consider shorting on rebounds in the medium term [64]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a deep contango. The domestic lead market has improved demand, and the social inventory has reached an inflection point. The price is expected to be range - bound and bullish [65]. - Investment advice: Try to go long on dips for single - sided trading and consider positive spreads for arbitrage [65]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a backwardation, and some zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong stop production due to a typhoon. The market has a potential soft - squeeze risk, and the domestic zinc price is affected. Consider positive spreads [66][67]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - sided trading, consider positive spreads for arbitrage, and maintain a positive - spread strategy for domestic - foreign trading [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreases, and Russia discusses the possibility of a diesel export ban. Oil prices are range - bound [68][69]. - Investment advice: Wait for new market drivers as oil prices are range - bound [70]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on September 23 increases, but the market volume does not expand significantly. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [70][71]. - Investment advice: Expect a further decline in the short term [71]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong varies. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be stable in the short term [72][73][74]. - Investment advice: The spot price is falling, but the downward space of the futures price may be limited [74]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is basically stable. The market is expected to be range - bound and bearish [75][76]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to be range - bound and bearish [76]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in China decreases. The market is weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. Pay attention to domestic policy support [77]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits further decline. Pay attention to domestic policy support [77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's pure benzene import data in August is reported. The pure benzene and styrene markets are range - bound and bearish. The supply of styrene is affected by maintenance, and the demand has short - term resilience [78][79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to how to solve the inventory contradiction after the peak season, and the industrial chain profit may be further compressed [80]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreases, and the market trading volume is acceptable. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and the long - term demand is weak. Pay attention to production cuts and new capacity [81][82][83]. - Investment advice: The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and pay attention to production cuts and new capacity [83]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price continues to fall. The supply may increase in Q4, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [84][85]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish in the short term [86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea import and export data in August is reported. The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. Pay attention to policy support [87][88][89]. - Investment advice: The urea futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended that strategic reserve buyers make dispersed purchases [89]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreases, and the market trading is normal. The demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation is postponed. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [90][91]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish in the short term [92]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe is normal, and the futures price falls. The supply is high, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to be shorted on rallies [93]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [94]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe is stable. The market is weak, and the 01 contract has a high premium over the spot price. Consider a long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy [95][96]. - Investment advice: Consider a long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy [96]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The world's first China - Europe Arctic container express route is launched. The spot container freight rate is falling, and the 10 - month contract price may decline slightly. Consider short - term arbitrage opportunities [97][98]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profit on the 10 - month contract on dips, pay attention to low - long opportunities for the 12 - month contract after a significant decline, and consider short - term positive spreads for the 12 - 02 contract [98].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's strategic plan to enhance the national carbon market, aiming for a more effective and internationally influential system to address climate change and promote green transformation in the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The plan emphasizes the integration of Xi Jinping's thoughts on ecological civilization and economic development, aiming for a balance between green transformation and economic growth [2]. - Key goals include achieving comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors in the carbon trading market by 2027 and establishing a robust carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 [2]. Group 2: Carbon Emission Trading Market Development - The national carbon emission trading market will expand its coverage based on industry development, pollution reduction contributions, and carbon emission characteristics [3]. - A transparent carbon quota management system will be established, transitioning from intensity control to total volume control by 2027 for stable emission sectors [3]. Group 3: Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The development of a voluntary emission reduction trading market will be accelerated, focusing on areas with significant sustainable development benefits [5]. - The government encourages the use of certified voluntary emission reductions in various sectors, including government and corporate social responsibility initiatives [6]. Group 4: Market Vitality Enhancement - Financial institutions will be encouraged to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions, enhancing support for greenhouse gas reduction [7]. - The introduction of new trading participants, including individuals and financial institutions, will be facilitated to broaden market engagement [7]. Group 5: Capacity Building for Carbon Market - A comprehensive management system will be established to support the carbon market's development, including digital and intelligent management systems [8]. - The article highlights the importance of accurate carbon emission accounting and reporting, with a focus on improving data quality and regulatory oversight [9]. Group 6: Organizational Implementation and Legal Support - Local governments are tasked with implementing the carbon market strategy, ensuring compliance and effective management of emission quotas [11]. - The government will strengthen legal frameworks to support carbon market operations and enhance regulatory measures against violations [11]. Group 7: International Cooperation - The article emphasizes the importance of participating in international climate agreements and promoting China's carbon market practices globally [12].