研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 3 月 2 日 0 / 50 | | | | 蛋白粕：宏观扰动增加 | 价格整体高位 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖业下调全球糖产 | 国际糖价震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：地缘冲突升级，油脂波动或加大 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货上涨，盘面继续冲高 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力较大 | 价格继续下行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：苹果需求有所好转 | 价格较为坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：地缘冲突爆发，钢价震荡跟涨 14 | | --- | | 双焦：地缘冲突加剧，可尝试逢低做多 14 | | 铁矿：地缘冲突加大，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：陕西差别电价落地，震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：地缘冲突爆发，避险主导金银 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：中东地缘冲突升级 避险需求推升贵金属价格 18 | | 铜：短期高位盘整，回调后 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 2026年02月26日 2026年02月28日 公用环保 202602 第 2 期 优于大市 国办发布《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》，2026 年全国碳排放 权交易市场有关工作安排出炉 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.36%，公用事业指数下跌 1.25%，环 保指数上涨 0.63%，周相对收益率分别为-1.61%和 0.27%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 23 和第 15 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电下跌 0.23%；水电下跌 2.06%，新能源发电下跌 0.58%； 水务板块下跌 1.53%；燃气板块下跌 2.27%。 重要事件：国办《发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》。2026 年 2 月 11 日，国务院办公厅发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意 见。文件明确，到 2030 年，基本建成全国统一电力市场体系，各类型电源 和除保障性用户外的电力用户全部直接参与电力市场，市场化交易电量占全 社会用电量的 70%左右。跨省跨区和省内实现联合交易，现货市场全面转入 正式运行，市场基础规则和技术标准全面 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每 日 早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 27 日 0 / 51 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：分化进一步加大 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：情绪仍弱，曲线熊陡 5 | | 蛋白粕：天气影响增加 | 盘面高位震荡 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价底部震荡 | 国内糖价略偏强 6 | | 油脂板块：美国生柴扰动，美豆油震荡上涨 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 价格小幅上涨 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低 | 优质苹果价格坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：钢厂继续检修，钢价压力仍存 14 | | --- | | 双焦：波动较大，但不构成趋势 14 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：锰矿扰动存不确定性，多单减持 16 | | 金银：多空因素共存，预计维持高位震荡 18 | | --- | ...

日度报告——综合晨报 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多 次降息 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-27 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多次降息 伊朗外长称美伊谈判取得进展，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数 走低。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股放量震荡整理 综 市场成交逐渐放量，更多流动性回归场内交易，这是我们判断 春季躁动仍未结束的原因之一。海外 AI 泡沫担忧逐渐深化，A 股或受映射。科技股短期回调压力增加，但中期仍看好。 巴西 2 月前两周出口糖和糖蜜 131.38 万吨 本榨季印度糖估产大幅下调 165 万吨至 2930 万吨，这将支撑印 度国内糖价，并限制其出口量，同时也有利于减轻本榨季全球 糖市供应过剩压力。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 芬兰启动欧洲首座商业化锂辉石矿山运营 短周期内仍以偏多思路看待。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 3205 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 稳地产政策可以理解为临时扰动，在其他利空出现之前，债市 难以持续下跌，部分时刻还会存在反弹动力。不过后续潜在的 风险因素仍然存在。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 巴西 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a notification detailing the responsibilities and obligations of key emission units in the carbon emission trading market, which will include the power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries by 2026, as part of China's dual carbon goals [1][2]. Group 1: Key Emission Units and Coverage - By 2026, the carbon market will include approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of carbon emissions, which accounts for over 60% of the national carbon emissions [2]. - The eight key industries, including power generation, steel, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, paper, and aviation, contribute to about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions [2][5]. Group 2: Compliance Requirements - The four core industries (power generation, steel, cement, aluminum smelting) must complete a full compliance process, including listing, monthly verification, annual reporting, and quota management [2][4]. - The notification outlines specific deadlines for key emission units, such as the publication of the 2027 key emission unit list by October 31, 2026, and the submission of greenhouse gas emission reports by March 31, 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Additional Industry Management - Industries like petrochemicals and chemicals are required to submit annual emission reports but are not yet involved in quota trading and compliance [5]. - Companies in these sectors with annual emissions of 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent must participate in the annual reporting process, with the same reporting deadline of March 31, 2026 [5][6]. Group 4: Future Preparedness - Industries not yet included in the carbon market should focus on preparing for future compliance by enhancing their reporting and verification capabilities [6]. - It is recommended that these companies establish carbon asset management departments and develop carbon reduction plans to ensure readiness for future inclusion in the carbon market [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the upcoming periods [40][41]. Core Insights - The carbon market in China is expanding, with a cumulative trading volume of 865 million tons and a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 24% [4][5]. - The report highlights the shift in national policy towards carbon emission control, emphasizing the importance of carbon reduction initiatives, which are expected to create investment opportunities in the environmental sector [7]. - Natural gas prices have seen a significant decline due to seasonal factors and increased supply, with the Henry Hub spot price dropping by 39.20% week-on-week to $4.37/mmBtu as of February 6 [12][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The carbon market's trading volume reached 865 million tons in 2025, with a transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan, despite a decrease in average transaction price to 62.36 yuan/ton, down 19.23% year-on-year [4][5]. - Key emission units in the carbon market include 3,378 entities, with the power sector comprising 2,087 units, indicating a strong awareness of carbon reduction among major emitters [4][5]. - Recommendations for investment include companies with diversified revenue sources such as Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Huaneng International Power, which are expected to benefit from stable capacity income [7][8]. 2. Gas Sector - Natural gas prices have decreased significantly, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $4.37/mmBtu, reflecting a 39.20% drop week-on-week, while European prices also fell due to improved supply conditions [12][29]. - The report suggests that the recovery in macroeconomic conditions may lead to a rebound in gas companies' performance, recommending firms like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [31][32]. - LNG prices in Northeast Asia have also declined, with spot prices at $10.70/mmBtu, down 7.76% week-on-week, influenced by seasonal demand and inventory levels [24][29]. 3. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant developments in the energy sector, including the implementation of a capacity price mechanism for coal and gas power generation, which aims to enhance revenue stability for power plants [36][37]. - Key announcements from companies include performance forecasts indicating substantial profit growth, such as Datang Power's expected net profit increase of 51% to 73% year-on-year [38]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing infrastructure improvements and energy transition initiatives as part of the national economic development plan [37].

Core Insights - The national carbon emissions trading market has been a key policy tool for achieving the "dual carbon" goals since its launch, with significant progress made in its development and operation [1][2] - As of December 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the carbon market is expected to reach 865 million tons, with a total transaction value of 57.663 billion RMB [1] - The market currently includes approximately 3,300 key emission units, covering about 65% of the national carbon dioxide emissions [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The carbon market has shown steady growth, with a trading volume of 235 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, and a transaction value of 14.630 billion RMB [1] Future Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to accelerate the construction of the national carbon market, revising the "Carbon Emission Trading Management Measures (Trial)" to adapt to new market conditions [2] - There will be an expansion of industry coverage and optimization of the carbon emission trading market quota allocation scheme, gradually tightening quota distribution while implementing a combination of free and paid allocation methods [2]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has shown significant growth in 2025, with key indicators achieving remarkable results, including the inclusion of 3,378 major emission units and a total transaction volume of 8.65 billion tons, reflecting a 24% year-on-year increase in trading volume [2][3] - The market has effectively supported the green transition in key industries such as electricity and steel, establishing a solid foundation for achieving carbon neutrality goals [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the carbon market included 3,378 major emission units across high-emission sectors, with the electricity sector having 2,087 units, steel 232, cement 962, and aluminum 97 [2] - The total transaction volume reached 8.65 billion tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 576.63 billion yuan, and the average trading price was 62.36 yuan per ton [2][3] - The market maintained rational price fluctuations, closing at 74.63 yuan per ton at year-end, indicating effective reflection of carbon emission scarcity [2] Group 2: Compliance and Regulation - The compliance rate for carbon quota clearance was approximately 99.99%, demonstrating the increasing awareness of carbon reduction among major emission units [3] - Regulatory frameworks are in place to ensure compliance, with penalties for companies failing to meet their obligations under the carbon trading management regulations [3] Group 3: Industry Transition - The electricity sector has been a leader in the green transition, utilizing its experience in quota management and data quality to drive low-carbon development [4][5] - The steel industry, as a new participant, faces challenges in adapting to the carbon market, necessitating a proactive approach to compliance and internal carbon management [6][7] Group 4: Carbon Finance Development - Experts suggest enhancing the financial attributes of the carbon market to better utilize market mechanisms, including the development of carbon financial products [8][9] - Carbon finance can facilitate liquidity, price discovery, and risk management, supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy [8][10] - Local carbon markets have begun experimenting with carbon forward contracts, which could enhance pricing mechanisms and risk management for enterprises [9]

Group 1: Policy and Market Developments - The commodity spot market is experiencing favorable policies, strengthening the foundation for "spot market-based and enhancing futures-spot linkage" [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued a plan to cultivate around 100 leading digital supply chain enterprises by 2030, integrating AI and big data into the supply chain [2] - The national carbon emissions trading market expanded to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a strategic shift towards multi-industry regulation [3] - The Ministry of Commerce encouraged the development of capacity pre-sale and order trading models to innovate trading practices in the commodity market [4] Group 2: Strategic Industry Focus - Rare earths have become a focal point in international competition, with export controls implemented on several rare earth items as a countermeasure against U.S. trade policies [5] - The establishment of the Zhejiang International Commodity Trading Center aims to integrate various trading resources and expand from oil and gas to multiple commodity categories [6][7] - Zhejiang's government issued a plan to create an integrated off-market for commodity futures and spot trading, enhancing resource allocation capabilities [8] Group 3: Regional Initiatives and Innovations - Hangzhou's government launched a three-year action plan to enhance the quality and scale of commodity trade, aiming to position the city as a national commodity trade center [9] - Tianjin has created a favorable policy environment for local commodity trading platforms, facilitating rapid approval for new models and products [10] - The Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure operation is expected to provide unprecedented opportunities for commodity flow, with a significant expansion of zero-tariff items [11] - Hong Kong is accelerating the development of a commodity trading ecosystem, with initiatives including tax incentives and the establishment of delivery points for global trading [13]

Group 1 - The national carbon market is expected to operate smoothly and steadily enhance market vitality by 2025, with a focus on increasing awareness of carbon reduction among key emission units [1] - By the end of 2025, there will be 3,378 key emission units included in the carbon emission trading market, with 2,087 from the power generation sector, 232 from the steel sector, 962 from the cement sector, and 97 from the aluminum smelting sector [1] - The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission rights in the national market reached 865 million tons, with a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The completion rate for the 2024 annual quota clearance is approximately 99.99%, with a total quota of 8.194 billion tons [1] - The voluntary emission reduction project methodology has accelerated, with 12 methodologies published, including oilfield gas recovery and salt marsh vegetation restoration [1] - As of the end of 2025, 33 voluntary emission reduction projects have been registered, resulting in a reduction of 1.77637 million tons, with a cumulative transaction volume of 921.94 thousand tons and a transaction value of 6.50 million yuan [2]