2026 年 3 月 1 日 电力设备新能源、环保 看好 Token 出海背景下电力运营商价值重估 ——电新环保行业周报 20260301 电力设备新能源 买入（维持） 环保 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：殷中枢 执业证书编号：S0930518040004 010-58452071 yinzs@ebscn.com 分析师：郝骞 执业证书编号：S0930520050001 021-52523827 haoqian@ebscn.com 分析师：陈无忌 执业证书编号：S0930522070001 021-52523693 chenwuji@ebscn.com 分析师：和霖 执业证书编号：S0930523070006 021-52523853 helin@ebscn.com 分析师：邓怡亮 执业证书编号：S0930525070003 021-52523802 dengyiliang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025/2/27 2025/6/29 2025/10/29 2026/2/28 电力设备(申万) 环保(申万) 沪深300 资料来源：i ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The chemical industry is expected to experience a significant decline in new supply in 2026 and 2027, leading to an upward cycle due to price synergy effects and the exit of overseas capacity [1][2] - The tightening of national carbon emission targets will impact the approval of oil and infrastructure projects, pushing chemical companies towards green transformation [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - Major chemical companies have made substantial fixed asset investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which are expected to translate into profits in the coming years, with some companies potentially having P/E ratios as low as 3-4 times [1][5] - The PX market is operating at high capacity utilization, with expected profits around 1,000 CNY/ton being sustainable due to the rapid digestion of new capacity [1][9] - The olefin market is projected to improve long-term, supported by national policies, with an expected upward cycle from 2027 to 2029 [1][11] Company-Specific Insights Wanhua Chemical - Fixed assets and construction projects have significantly increased, with potential profits at the bottom of the cycle estimated at 15-16 billion CNY, and central profit levels reaching around 30 billion CNY [3][20] - The company’s market cap corresponds to a P/E ratio of 8-9 times, indicating substantial profit potential as the cycle rebounds [20] Longbai Group - Fixed assets have grown significantly, with potential profits estimated at 12 billion CNY based on historical averages [21][22] - The company’s market cap corresponds to a P/E ratio of around 9 times, suggesting a favorable valuation [22] Rongsheng Petrochemical - Fixed asset investments have been significantly higher than those of Hengli Petrochemical, with potential peak profits estimated between 20 billion to 30 billion CNY [23][24] - Future profitability will depend on the market conditions for ethylene and its downstream products [24] Hengli Petrochemical - The company is seen as stable and a key indicator of product reversals, with significant overseas expansion potential [14][13] - Expected profits could reach 60-70 billion CNY if current favorable conditions persist [13] Shenghong Petrochemical - The company has not fully benefited from industry conditions but has significant upside potential, with expected profits from new energy sectors [12] Other Important Insights - The chemical industry is currently characterized by a shorter duration from the bottom of the down cycle to the upturn, aided by price synergy effects and high industry concentration [4] - The large refining industry is at the tail end of its capacity cycle, with cash flow expected to improve significantly [8] - The agricultural chemicals sector faces oversupply issues, with key signals from agricultural product prices [28] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The oil market is expected to improve in the second half of 2026, with prices potentially fluctuating between 70-80 USD per barrel [15][16] - OPEC is likely to maintain production levels, indicating a slow growth cycle for oil supply, which could stabilize prices [17] - The refrigerant market is expected to see price increases, although the rate of increase may slow down [33][34] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the chemical industry's dynamics, company-specific insights, and broader market trends.

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the cement industry in the national carbon emissions trading market signifies a profound transformation in cost, technology, and competitive landscape, presenting both challenges and opportunities for industry transformation [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The Chinese cement industry is experiencing its most severe downturn in nearly a decade, with a projected reduction of 550 million tons in national cement production by 2024 compared to 2021, leading to pressure on the market capitalization of listed companies [1] - The decline in real estate investment and infrastructure growth has resulted in a "cliff-like" drop in cement demand, exacerbated by overcapacity and intense competition among companies [2] - The industry faces challenges such as reduced mutual trust among enterprises and chaotic competition, making effective collaboration difficult and intensifying market confusion [2] Group 2: Opportunities from Carbon Market Inclusion - The implementation of the carbon emissions trading market is expected to drive the cement industry from a high-carbon path to a low-carbon competitive landscape, accelerating innovation and application of low-carbon technologies [3] - The carbon market will encourage companies to adopt advanced production processes, improve energy efficiency, and reduce carbon emissions, enhancing their market competitiveness and promoting a positive green brand image [3][4] - Companies can generate new revenue streams by selling surplus carbon allowances, attracting investments from green funds and financial institutions, thereby broadening financing channels and reducing costs [4] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The carbon market will necessitate increased investments in energy-saving renovations, low-carbon technologies, and materials to lower carbon emission intensity, which is essential for reducing costs associated with purchasing shortfall allowances [5] - The initial phase of the carbon market implementation (2024-2026) provides a transition period for the cement industry, allowing it to adapt without losing price advantages compared to non-participating companies [6] - Despite current market demand decline, the cement industry is expected to remain a crucial raw material in the construction sector due to the large economic scale of the country [6]