Report Summary 1. Report Date and Title - Date: November 24, 2025 - Title: "Carbonate Lithium: Intensified Long - Short Game, Focus on the Resumption of Work of Large Factories" [1] 2. Analysts and Contacts - Analyst: Shao Wanyi (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015722) - Contact: Liu Hongru (Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03124172) [1] 3. Fundamental Data of Carbonate Lithium 3.1 Futures Contracts Data - **2601 Contract**: Closing price is 91,020 yuan, down 7,960 yuan compared to T - 1; trading volume is 1,137,824 lots, down 457,822 lots; open interest is 411,327 lots, down 68,275 lots [2] - **2605 Contract**: Closing price is 91,960 yuan, down 8,160 yuan compared to T - 1; trading volume is 691,639 lots, up 63,899 lots; open interest is 336,423 lots, down 3,346 lots [2] 3.2 Other Data - **Warehouse Receipts**: 26,848 lots, down 68 lots compared to T - 1 - **Basis**: Spot - 2601 is 1,280 yuan; Spot - 2605 is 340 yuan; 2601 - 2605 is - 940 yuan - **Raw Materials**: Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,089 yuan, down 28 yuan compared to T - 1; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,550 yuan, down 150 yuan [2] - **Lithium Salts**: Battery - grade carbonate lithium is 92,300 yuan, up 1,000 yuan compared to T - 1; industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 89,900 yuan, up 1,000 yuan [2] 4. Macro and Industry News - SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 92,801 yuan/ton, up 401 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; battery - grade carbonate lithium is 89,800 - 94,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 92,300 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton; industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 88,300 - 91,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 89,900 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton [3] - From November 15th to November 21st, there were 36 project tenders with a total scale of 20.31GWh, and 15 projects were awarded with a total capacity of 6.338GWh [3] 5. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of carbonate lithium is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated greatly, with the center of gravity moving up. The 2601 contract closed at 91,020 yuan/ton, up 3,660 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2605 contract closed at 91,960 yuan/ton, up 4,080 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 7,150 yuan/ton to 92,300 yuan/ton [1]. - The destocking speed of lithium carbonate inventory has slowed down. The market expects the resumption of the Jiangxi mining project to accelerate. The weekly output increased by 585 tons to 22,000 tons. The downstream may have procurement demand at the end of the month [2]. - The long - short game in the lithium carbonate market has intensified. The long side expects downstream procurement to be concentrated at the end of November, while the short side anticipates the resumption of the Jiangxi mining project in early December. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at a high level before November and decline in December [3]. - The single - side price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to run weakly after high - level fluctuations, with the main contract price operating in the range of 80,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [4]. - For cross - period trading, a positive spread strategy is recommended. After the forced cancellation in November, attention should be paid to the possible shortage of delivery volume. Lithium salt factories are advised to hedge to lock in profits, while downstream enterprises should reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report presents multiple charts related to the price differences between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the cross - period price differences of lithium carbonate futures [7]. 3.2 Upstream Supply of Lithium Salt - Lithium Ore - Charts show the processing profit of spodumene concentrate, the average price trend of spodumene concentrate, the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate [7][8]. 3.3 Mid - stream Consumption of Lithium Salt - Lithium Salt Products - It includes charts on the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the East China region, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost, the monthly export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the monthly production volume of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly production volume of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the monthly production volume of domestic lithium carbonate by raw material, the monthly production volume of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the monthly production volume of domestic lithium carbonate by region, the weekly production volume and weekly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile and Argentina, the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate, and the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants [8][9][10][11][12]. 3.4 Downstream Consumption of Lithium Salt - Lithium Batteries and Materials - There are charts on the monthly production volume and monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, the monthly production volume and monthly operating rate of ternary materials, the monthly production volume of various types of ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production volume of various types of domestic power lithium batteries [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" signal on the lithium mining industry, particularly focusing on the suspension of operations at Ningde Times' lithium mine in Yichun, which has led to significant fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures prices [3][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the "anti-involution" signal, the market reacted swiftly, with lithium carbonate futures rising by 5.36% on August 7 and nearly hitting the limit up with a 7.73% increase on August 8 [5]. - By August 12, the main futures contract for lithium carbonate closed at 82,520 yuan/ton, marking an 18.5% increase over four trading days [5][11]. - The market sentiment was further fueled by the confirmation of the suspension of mining operations at Ningde Times' Yichun project due to the expiration of its mining license [5][8]. Group 2: Industry Context - The initial trigger for this market movement was a notification from the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau on July 7, requiring eight lithium mining companies to complete resource verification reports by September 30 [6][7]. - The eight mining companies include several publicly listed firms, with Ningde Times' situation being viewed as a critical factor in the ongoing market dynamics [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The core point of contention in the market will be whether the eight involved mining companies can submit their resource reports on time and the subsequent review process [13]. - If Ningde Times' mine resumes operations after three months and the other seven mines remain unaffected, the total impact on lithium supply could be limited to approximately 30,000 to 35,000 tons [14]. - Conversely, if all eight mines face shutdowns due to license issues, the monthly output could decrease by 15,000 to 16,000 tons, significantly affecting the market supply and potentially driving prices above 100,000 yuan/ton [15].

Group 1 - The core issue of the lithium market is the "anti-involution" competition, which has led to significant supply concerns following the expiration of mining licenses for key lithium mines, particularly the one operated by CATL in Yichun, Jiangxi [1][2] - The carbon lithium futures contract saw a substantial price increase, rising 18.5% from August 7 to August 12, with a closing price of 82,520 yuan/ton on August 12 [1][2] - The Yichun mining operations are critical, as they account for approximately 20% of China's monthly lithium production, with a production scale of 4,390 million tons/year [2][6] Group 2 - The market is currently in a state of intense competition, with investors closely monitoring the situation at the Yichun lithium mine, leading to speculative trading and significant price volatility [3][4] - The upcoming deadline of September 30 for the eight involved lithium mining companies to submit resource reports is seen as a pivotal point for future supply and pricing dynamics in the lithium market [5][6] - Companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and Keli Yuan have confirmed that their operations in Yichun are ongoing and that their mining licenses remain valid, indicating that not all players are affected by the regulatory changes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing volatility due to production issues at ALB's LaNegra lithium salt plant in Chile, which has been impacted by safety complaints and recent seismic activity [1]. Group 1: Production Issues - ALB's LaNegra lithium salt plant in Chile is facing potential production halts due to anonymous safety complaints, which have disrupted market equilibrium [1]. - The plant has a capacity of 85,000 tons for 2024, but the actual production quota is around 60,000 tons, with a monthly output of approximately 5,000 tons [1]. Group 2: Recent Events - A 4.2 magnitude earthquake near the El Teniente copper mine in Chile resulted in a mine collapse, causing 6 fatalities and 9 injuries, prompting the Chilean government to take action [1]. - The El Teniente copper mine resumed operations on August 10, indicating that the impact of the earthquake on the mining sector may be short-lived [1]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - Chilean lawmakers have requested a review of ALB's lithium production lines following the safety complaints, highlighting the government's focus on mining safety [1].