2025 年 11 月 24 日 碳酸锂：多空博弈加剧，关注大厂复工进展 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 91,020 | -7,960 | 3,660 | 8,720 | 13,900 | 6,540 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 1,137,824 | -457,822 | 380,392 | 327,169 | 761,375 | 959,871 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 411,327 | -68,275 | -105,451 | -79,624 | 58,096 | 2 ...

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 碳酸锂：月末下游补库、矿山复工预期，多空 博弈加剧 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：大涨大跌，重心上移 碳酸锂期货合约周初涨停板，周尾跌停板。2601 合约收于 91020 元/吨，周环比上涨 3660 元/吨， 2605 合约收于 91960 元/吨，周环比上涨 4080 元/吨，现货周环比上涨 7150 元/吨为 92300 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2601 合约）上涨 3490 元/吨至+1280 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价-460 元/吨，周环比下跌 50 元/吨。2601-2605 合约价差-940 元/吨，环比走弱-420 元/吨。 供需基本面：去库速度放缓 原料：江西省自然资源厅公告，中联资产评估集团湖南华信有限公司提交的江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉 新县枧下窝矿（已动用锂矿资源量）出让收益评估报告，公示期间无异议，评估结果自公开之日起生效， 市场预期项目复工情况加速。本周澳矿发运量量 3.0 万吨，较低。智利发运量 7323 吨，处于高位。 供需： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" signal on the lithium mining industry, particularly focusing on the suspension of operations at Ningde Times' lithium mine in Yichun, which has led to significant fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures prices [3][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the "anti-involution" signal, the market reacted swiftly, with lithium carbonate futures rising by 5.36% on August 7 and nearly hitting the limit up with a 7.73% increase on August 8 [5]. - By August 12, the main futures contract for lithium carbonate closed at 82,520 yuan/ton, marking an 18.5% increase over four trading days [5][11]. - The market sentiment was further fueled by the confirmation of the suspension of mining operations at Ningde Times' Yichun project due to the expiration of its mining license [5][8]. Group 2: Industry Context - The initial trigger for this market movement was a notification from the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau on July 7, requiring eight lithium mining companies to complete resource verification reports by September 30 [6][7]. - The eight mining companies include several publicly listed firms, with Ningde Times' situation being viewed as a critical factor in the ongoing market dynamics [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The core point of contention in the market will be whether the eight involved mining companies can submit their resource reports on time and the subsequent review process [13]. - If Ningde Times' mine resumes operations after three months and the other seven mines remain unaffected, the total impact on lithium supply could be limited to approximately 30,000 to 35,000 tons [14]. - Conversely, if all eight mines face shutdowns due to license issues, the monthly output could decrease by 15,000 to 16,000 tons, significantly affecting the market supply and potentially driving prices above 100,000 yuan/ton [15].

Group 1 - The core issue of the lithium market is the "anti-involution" competition, which has led to significant supply concerns following the expiration of mining licenses for key lithium mines, particularly the one operated by CATL in Yichun, Jiangxi [1][2] - The carbon lithium futures contract saw a substantial price increase, rising 18.5% from August 7 to August 12, with a closing price of 82,520 yuan/ton on August 12 [1][2] - The Yichun mining operations are critical, as they account for approximately 20% of China's monthly lithium production, with a production scale of 4,390 million tons/year [2][6] Group 2 - The market is currently in a state of intense competition, with investors closely monitoring the situation at the Yichun lithium mine, leading to speculative trading and significant price volatility [3][4] - The upcoming deadline of September 30 for the eight involved lithium mining companies to submit resource reports is seen as a pivotal point for future supply and pricing dynamics in the lithium market [5][6] - Companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and Keli Yuan have confirmed that their operations in Yichun are ongoing and that their mining licenses remain valid, indicating that not all players are affected by the regulatory changes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing volatility due to production issues at ALB's LaNegra lithium salt plant in Chile, which has been impacted by safety complaints and recent seismic activity [1]. Group 1: Production Issues - ALB's LaNegra lithium salt plant in Chile is facing potential production halts due to anonymous safety complaints, which have disrupted market equilibrium [1]. - The plant has a capacity of 85,000 tons for 2024, but the actual production quota is around 60,000 tons, with a monthly output of approximately 5,000 tons [1]. Group 2: Recent Events - A 4.2 magnitude earthquake near the El Teniente copper mine in Chile resulted in a mine collapse, causing 6 fatalities and 9 injuries, prompting the Chilean government to take action [1]. - The El Teniente copper mine resumed operations on August 10, indicating that the impact of the earthquake on the mining sector may be short-lived [1]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - Chilean lawmakers have requested a review of ALB's lithium production lines following the safety complaints, highlighting the government's focus on mining safety [1].