要理解中国经济，别再只盯着GDP增速了。今天这期视频，我就用五个关键词带你看清楚：过 去一年里中国经济有哪些重点；对于2026，第十五个五年规划的开局之年，大家又有哪些期 待。 关键词一：人工智能 从DeepSeek开始，相信大家在2025年，都彻底被人工智能震撼了，它正在方方面面地进入我 们的生产和生活。它是一场通用技术革命，像电力和互联网一样，正成为所有行业的"效率放 大器"。所以你可以看到，三件事同时发生：一是AI加速进入制造、物流、医疗、政务，走向 产业深处；二是从算力、芯片到模型、应用，形成完整产业闭环；三是AI被视作新型基础设施 全面推进。这意味着，中国经济未来十年的新引擎，正围绕人工智能加速构建。 把这五个关键词连在一起，你会发现中国经济，正在从"拼速度"，转向兼顾调结构、换逻辑。 面向2026年，中国经济的发展已经超越"追赶逻辑"，国家间多维度的竞争也从"力量博弈"升维 到"范式竞争"。如果你能看懂这五个关键词，你就能大致判断，哪些行业在蓄力，哪些模式在 退场，以及未来几年，中国经济真正的机会，可能藏在哪里。对于2026年，你有哪些期待？来 评论区告诉我吧！ 21世纪经济报道新年宠粉福利来啦 ...

"近期，有头部企业明确磷酸铁锂加工费统一上调。" "碳酸锂价格再次突破10万元/吨。" 年末岁尾，磷酸铁锂行业密集释放的提价信号，让整个新能源汽车产业链感受到明显震动。作为动 力电池与储能领域的核心正极材料，此轮涨价正在引发下游产业链的连锁反应与深度调整。 此轮或提价5%～10% 磷酸铁锂凭借高安全性、长循环寿命及高性价比优势，已成为支撑全球新能源汽车产业链的关键材 料。我国凭借产业先发优势，构建起完整且富有竞争力的供应链体系。然而，自2022年以来，磷酸铁锂 材料行业进入了持续的价格下行周期，成本与售价之间的矛盾日益凸显。已成为锂电产业链利润压力最 大的环节之一。持续近两年的价格战，使"反内卷"呼声高涨。 近期，在原材料价格上涨和市场供应紧张的双重推动下，磷酸铁锂行业集体提出涨价的诉求。湖南 裕能宣布，自2026年1月1日起，全系列铁锂产品加工费在现有基础上上调3000元/吨（未税价）；后续 若市场或原材料价格发生重大波动，产品价格再重新进行商议。该公司还表示，涨价主要基于产品供不 应求（尤其是新产品系列），以及原材料价格上涨带来的成本压力，目前与客户的涨价谈判已取得积极 进展。 安达科技也同步通知，自20 ...

"与硅料价格不同，银价涨价是产业链外的变量冲击，对此，电池片必然会因成本支撑加强而调涨。"上 海有色网光伏电池片分析师蒋辰怡在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，对于此类不可控因素导致的价 格调整，下游的接受度也会稍高一些。 据了解，目前已有一些头部企业跟进上调组件价格。 本报记者 殷高峰 银价持续上涨导致光伏电池、组件成本上升，日前有消息称，光伏龙头隆基绿能科技股份有限公司（以 下简称"隆基绿能"）已经率先上调组件价格。 12月19日，隆基绿能相关负责人回复《证券日报》记者提问时表示："消息属实，目前每瓦上调了2分钱 到4分钱。"对于此次价格上调，该负责人称，主要是基于近期银价的持续上涨，同时，也是隆基绿能对 反"内卷式"竞争的又一次响应。 今年以来，白银价格呈现历史性上涨行情，伦敦现货银价年初约30.1美元/盎司，12月17日，白银现货 价格突破66美元/盎司，价格涨幅约120%。 "一块组件里面就要用到7克到8克的白银，银价的持续上涨使光伏组件的成本大幅上升。"隆基绿能上述 负责人进一步表示，同时，硅料、光伏玻璃、胶膜、铝边框等材料价格较年初也有比较大的上涨。 "目前硅片、电池片、组件等环节以及垂直一体化企 ...

今年1—10月，光伏制造端各环节产量有增有减，其中，多晶硅产量约111.3万吨，同比下降29.6%；硅 片产量约567GW，同比下降6.7%；电池片产量约560GW，同比增长9.8%；光伏组件产量约514GW，同 比增长13.5%。就电池和组件而言，产量增速也显著下降。 12月18日，在2025光伏行业年度大会上，中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华指出，2025年，光伏行业 在变化中重塑格局。除产量变化以外，在抢装带动下，前三季度国内各类型光伏装机也出现"脉冲式"变 化；全球市场方面，光伏增长预期放缓，但基本需求仍在，我国光伏产品出口量也有所回暖，出口价格 止跌，其中，新兴市场进一步驱动光伏组件出口增长。 值得一提的是，2025年以来，光伏供应链价格波动显著，受重要节点影响较大。其中，电池、组件、硅 片环节受到分布式新政、136号文影响，上半年价格有所起伏，在3月达到高点，4月整体进入下行通 道，6月进入价格低点；今年6月27日《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》通过，多晶硅、硅片、电池环 节受"不低于成本销售"要求影响，7—10月价格回升并整体保持稳定；不过，组件环节三季度以来受需 求侧影响，价格未能有效回升，处 ...

央视网消息：本周闭幕的中央经济工作会议总结了2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，并对2026年经济工作作出全面部署。在中央经济工作 会议提出的八项任务中，"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，被放在了首位。未来的一年，中国经济的这个最重要目标，将会取得什么样的 进展，新的重要政策和措施，将如何更精准地抵达企业和个人。 本周一，海关总署发布2025年前11个月的外贸数据，我国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿元，同比增长3.6%。其中，出口24.46万亿元、进口 16.75万亿元，我国贸易顺差，首次超过1万亿美元。 中国国际经济交流中心研究员张茉楠表示，2025年前11月份，中国的外贸顺差突破1万亿美元的大关，这也是历史上最高的贸易顺差规模。这 样一个成绩的取得，凸显了我国在全球产业链分工，包括国际经贸格局当中，中国不可替代的作用。 在复杂而不确定的外部环境下，中国外贸的驱动力来自何处？数据显示，2025年前11个月，我国对美国出口同比下降18.9%，比2024年同期减 少897.6亿美元。与此同时，我国对东盟的出口比2024年同期多出723.76亿美元，对欧盟出口比2024年同期增长384亿美元，从而弥补了对美 ...

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The Shanghai export container freight index has decreased, with the SCFI composite index down 3.6% week-on-week to 1495 points, while the BCTI index increased by 4.2% to 644 points [1][5] - The U.S. soybean market is returning to China, with expectations of purchasing at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in the last two months of 2025, potentially boosting demand for Panamax bulk carriers [4][5] - The logistics sector is experiencing a resilient demand for e-commerce express delivery, with a focus on reducing "involution" competition, which is expected to enhance service quality and profitability [2][11] Group 2: Company Developments - Shentong has completed the acquisition of Danbird Logistics, which is expected to enhance its market share and service capabilities in the domestic express delivery sector [3] - The logistics landscape is shifting towards a dual network model of "franchise + direct operation," leveraging Danbird's warehousing and distribution capabilities [3][11] - The recent extension of visa-free policies for certain countries is anticipated to boost inbound tourism, positively impacting airlines and related sectors [7][8] Group 3: Shipping and Freight Rates - The BDI index for bulk carriers has increased by 1.3% to 1992 points, indicating a positive trend in the bulk shipping market [6] - The newbuilding price index has decreased slightly, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the shipbuilding market amid fluctuating demand [6][13] - The oil tanker market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts, enhancing the outlook for companies in this sector [12]

Core Points - The central theme of the articles is the commitment to eliminate obstacles in the construction of a unified national market in China over the next five years, as outlined in the recent guidelines from the Central Committee [1][2]. Group 1: National Market Construction - The guidelines emphasize the need to standardize local government economic promotion behaviors and address "involution" competition, aiming to create a fair and competitive market environment [1][2]. - Specific measures include improving foundational institutional rules for the unified market, enhancing property rights protection, market access, information disclosure, social credit, mergers and acquisitions, and market exit systems [1][2]. - The focus is on eliminating barriers related to resource acquisition, qualification recognition, bidding, and government procurement, as well as regulating local government economic promotion behaviors to dismantle local protectionism and market segmentation [1][2]. Group 2: Competition Policy and Local Government Behavior - The guidelines link competition policy with the construction of a unified national market, indicating that deficiencies in existing fiscal and assessment systems may hinder market development [2][4]. - There is a historical context where local governments have provided tax incentives and subsidies to attract investment, which, while beneficial in some aspects, disrupts market order and fair competition [2][3]. - The need for effective regulation of local government economic promotion behaviors is highlighted, as past neglect has led to issues such as "involution" competition, where local governments' financial incentives encourage unhealthy price competition among businesses [4][5]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Future Directions - The articles reference previous attempts to regulate tax incentives, noting that a 2014 directive aimed to clean up such policies but was ultimately postponed [3][4]. - The guidelines call for a comprehensive review and elimination of policies that promote local protectionism and market fragmentation, with a focus on ensuring fair competition [5][6]. - The introduction of the Fair Competition Review System is seen as a critical step in preventing local governments from issuing preferential policies that distort competition [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in October decreased to 49.0%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity after two months of growth, influenced by pre-holiday demand release and a complex international environment [2][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in production activities [6] - New export orders index dropped to 45.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest point this year, reflecting tightened export demand across major manufacturing sectors [7][8] - Large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.9%, while medium and small enterprises saw PMIs of 48.7% and 47.1%, respectively, indicating varying levels of operational pressure across different enterprise sizes [10] Price Trends - The manufacturing sector experienced positive price changes, with the equipment manufacturing purchase price index and factory price index both rising for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since June 2024 [9][11] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchase price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures and stabilizing sales prices, which is beneficial for profit margins [11] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, indicating expansion, with significant activity in sectors related to consumer travel and services due to holiday effects [14] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector remained high at 56.1%, reflecting strong confidence among service enterprises regarding future development [14]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in October decreased to 49.0%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity after two months of growth, influenced by pre-holiday demand release and a complex international environment [3][4]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a contraction in manufacturing sentiment [3][4]. - The production index for manufacturing dropped to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight slowdown in production activities [8]. - New export orders index decreased to 45.9%, marking a significant contraction in export demand, particularly in equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing [9][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand are experiencing a slowdown, with the procurement index falling to 49%, down 2.6 percentage points, indicating reduced purchasing activities among manufacturers [8]. - The overall market demand is weak, driven by external uncertainties and seasonal factors, leading to cautious production intentions among manufacturers [9]. Price Trends - Despite the slowdown, there are positive price changes in the manufacturing sector, with the purchasing price index and factory price index in equipment manufacturing rising for three consecutive months [12]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchasing price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures, which may benefit profit margins [13]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday effects and increased consumer activity in sectors like transportation and hospitality [16]. - The business activity expectation index remains high at 56.1%, suggesting strong confidence among service sector enterprises regarding future growth [16].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI in October decreased to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity after two months of growth [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by holiday effects [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight slowdown in production activities [4] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest point of the year, reflecting tightening export demand [5] - The procurement volume index decreased to 49%, down 2.6 percentage points, indicating a contraction in purchasing activities after two months of expansion [5] Business Performance by Company Size - Large enterprises' PMI fell to 49.9%, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI decreased to 48.7%, and small enterprises' PMI dropped to 47.1%, indicating pressure across all company sizes [6] - Despite the decline, large enterprises maintained stable supply and demand, while medium and small enterprises faced more significant challenges [6] Price Trends - The manufacturing sector experienced positive price changes, with the equipment manufacturing purchase price index and factory price index rising for three consecutive months [6] - The consumer goods manufacturing purchase price index fell to below 50%, while the factory price index increased, indicating reduced cost pressures and stabilized sales prices [7] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index showed signs of recovery, with significant activity in sectors closely related to consumer travel, such as transportation and hospitality, driven by holiday effects [10] - The business activity expectation index remained high at 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service sector enterprises regarding future development [10]