Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Demand side: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the demand for energy storage is strong. The continuous reduction of lithium carbonate social inventory supports the futures price [3]. - Supply side: The overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3]. - Market speculation: Attention should be paid to whether the market will hype supply - side issues again due to demand improvement and environmental problems in Qinghai salt lakes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,850 yuan/ton, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,600 yuan/ton, and the difference between them is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Futures contract closing prices and their changes: Lithium carbonate 2605 at 73,780 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change; 2606 at 73,540 yuan/ton with a - 0.86% change; 2607 at 73,440 yuan/ton with a - 0.73% change; 2608 at 73,620 yuan/ton with a - 0.65% change; 2609 at 73,500 yuan/ton with a - 0.7% change [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 860 yuan/ton [1]. - Lithium mica prices vary by grade: 1165 yuan/ton for (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%), 1900 yuan/ton for (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) [2]. - Phosphorus - lithium - aluminum stone prices also vary by grade: 6130 yuan/ton for (Li20: 6% - 7%), 7265 yuan/ton for (Li20: 7% - 8%) [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,710 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 147,450 yuan/ton with a 200 - yuan change; 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,350 yuan/ton with a 150 - yuan change; 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 125,000 yuan/ton with a 150 - yuan change [2]. Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 137,531 tons with a - 981 - ton change; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,456 tons with a - 1757 - ton change; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 59,495 tons with a 1216 - ton change; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,580 tons with a - 440 - ton change; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 39,449 tons with a 540 - ton change [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,536 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 2759 yuan/ton [3]. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 79,306 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 8521 yuan/ton [3]. Environmental Issue - Qinghai Chaidamu Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. was reported for illegally burying a large amount of industrial hazardous waste, and a national special rectification action on illegal dumping and disposal of solid waste has been launched [3].

利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 61596 生产利 用 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -355 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 66176 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6447 行业 津巴布韦将从 2027 年起禁止锂精矿出口。根据路透社，2025年6月10日，津巴布韦矿业部长温斯顿·奇坦多（Winston Chitando）周二表示 巴布韦将从2027年起禁止锂精矿出口，以进一步推动本地加工。作为非洲顶级的锂生产国，津巴布韦已于2022年禁止了锂矿石的 推动矿商在国内进行更多加工。 主要 价格下方主要靠下游采买支撑，但正极厂、电池厂7月排产增幅较小，采买力量主要靠贸易商发力，空间有限。另外，由于价格反弹，7月供给 噜产幅度较大，供过于求的格局加深，拖累价格上行，且矿石端也未现减产迹象。预计随着采买节奏放缓。碳酸锂期价下行压力将加剧 x 点 责 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国贸 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate is expected to intensify as the purchasing pace slows. The price is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. In addition, due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is relatively large, deepening the pattern of oversupply and dragging down the price increase, and there are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 61,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,050 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2507 is 63,980 yuan, up 2.99%; lithium carbonate 2508 is 64,060 yuan, up 2.99%; lithium carbonate 2509 is 63,960 yuan, up 3.19%; lithium carbonate 2510 is 63,700 yuan, up 3.07%; lithium carbonate 2511 is 63,560 yuan, up 3.01% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 632 yuan, up 7 yuan [1] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 740 yuan, up 20 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1275 yuan, up 20 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4275 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5100 yuan [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,550 yuan, up 55 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,520 yuan, down 10 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,455 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,165 yuan, down 10 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2310 yuan, down 830 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 100 yuan, up 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 360 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,837.59032 tons, up 1936.407 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is not provided; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,635 tons, up 269 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 37,170 tons, up 1260 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 23,180 tons, up 240 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 60,326 yuan, and the profit is 470 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 65,253 yuan, and the profit is - 5965 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As a top lithium producer in Africa, Zimbabwe banned the export of lithium ore in 2022 to encourage miners to do more processing domestically [3]