免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 碳酸锂产业日报 2025/8/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 79,380.00 | +420.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -132,250.00 | +6209.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 368,667.00 | +6413.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 540.00 | -20.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 24,990.00 | +670. ...

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/8/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 82,760.00 | +1780.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -142,510.00 | -3052.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 390,069.00 | -5033.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 820.00 | +660.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 24,045.00 | +430.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 85,200.00 | -500.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 82,900.00 | -500.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 2,440.00 | -2280.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 980.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The profit of lithium carbonate has been restored, production has rebounded, downstream demand has increased, and social inventory has been depleted. In the short - term, both supply and demand have strengthened. The impact from Jiangxi's mining end continues, but the exchange has taken measures to cool down coking coal futures. It is necessary to guard against the decline of "contrarian" sentiment. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. In operation, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Data 3.1 Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely. The trading volume was 1,060,127 lots (-185,297), and the open interest was 389,177 lots (-3,498). The contango in the spot market was strong, and the basis discount narrowed [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from $926.00 to $937.00; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) rose from $1,275.00 to $1,300.00; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) increased from $2,030.00 to $2,075.00; the price of montebrasite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was $0.00 (previously $7,250.00), and the price of montebrasite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained at $8,350.00 [3] 3.3 Lithium Product Prices - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) rose from $81,000.00 to $82,000.00; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) increased from $78,800.00 to $79,750.00; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan and South Korea) increased from $8.50/kg to $8.60/kg; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained domestic) rose from $71,990.00 to $73,040.00; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized domestic) increased from $77,110.00 to $78,110.00 [3] 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was $76,575.00; the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) remained at $76,830.00; the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) remained at $72,130.00; the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) remained at $90,235.00; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) rose from $118,795.00 to $118,995.00; the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from $113,260.00 to $113,530.00; the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from $116,330.00 to $116,610.00; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) increased from $145,970.00 to $146,070.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) rose from $35,050.00 to $35,390.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy - storage type) increased from $31,235.00 to $34,040.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) rose from $31,000.00 to $31,230.00; the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) increased from $223,350.00 to $223,850.00 [3] 3.5 Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. In August, the production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the planned production of lithium carbonate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased [3] - Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased [3] 3.6 Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 21,939 tons (+260 tons). Social inventory decreased, smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors accumulated inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons [3] 4. Market Information - The US July PPI annual rate reached 3.3%, the highest since February; the July PPI monthly rate was 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022. After the data was released, interest - rate futures traders reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts [3]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation where supply is slightly increasing and demand is gradually recovering, with large price fluctuations and an improving industry outlook. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 82,520 yuan/ton, up 1,520 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 114,760 lots, up 13,356 lots; the position of the main contract is 356,998 lots, up 39,322 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 3,620 yuan/ton, up 5,620 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 19,389 lots/ton, up 560 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 78,000 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 4,520 yuan/ton, up 1,980 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 788 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 7,250 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,501 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5%; the price of lithium manganate is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 51,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 147,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 123,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 129,000 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 32,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 52%, up 3%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.99%, up 0.68%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 68.6%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day average volatility of the target is 50.42%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 158,991 lots, up 39,939 lots; the total put position is 71,348 lots, up 18,730 lots; the total position put - call ratio is 44.88%, up 0.678%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is up 0.0299% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued the national standard "Technical Requirements for Transportation Safety and Multimodal Transport of Power Lithium Batteries", which will be implemented on February 1, 2026. In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. The export of new energy vehicles was 225,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times. From January to July, the cumulative output of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 57.5%, and the sales volume was 786.2 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 60.6% [2].

对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。 ITC国贸期货 世界500强投资 贸期货有限公司 一流的衍生品综合服务商 www.itf.com. 48 2 ntan ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 谢灵 投资咨询号: Z0015788 从业资格号: F3040017 国贸期货研究院 2025/08/08 有色金属研究中心 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 据来源: SMM. 公开新闻整理 1000000 锂化合物 平均价 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 71100 150 80000 4000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 69000 150 收盘价 期货合约 涨跌幅 3000 60000 碳酸锂2508 70000 3.24% 71920 碳酸锂2509 5. 3% 40000 2000 碳酸锂2510 5. 31% 72200 碳酸锂2511 > ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are relatively loose with profit recovery and increased production, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to wait and see and not chase high prices (View Score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On August 7, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 70,000 yuan/ton, 71,920 yuan/ton, 72,300 yuan/ton, and 72,300 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day. The closing price of the active contract was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 766,669 lots (+341,310), and the open interest was 289,832 lots (+32,062) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 16,443 tons, an increase of 1,420 tons from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,443 tons (+1,420) [1]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 1,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dry average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) changed from a premium to a discount, decreasing by 2,530 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore and Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 757 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The prices of various types of lithium mica also increased [1]. - **Lithium - Related Products**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton. The average price of some lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and phosphoric acid lithium iron also showed an upward trend [1]. 3.3 Cobalt Spot Prices - The average price of electrolytic cobalt remained unchanged at 266,500 yuan/ton. The average prices of cobalt sulfate and tricobalt tetroxide increased by 100 yuan/ton and 650 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4 SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,418 tons on August 7, 2025, an increase of 692 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of downstream increased by 2,271 tons, while the inventory of smelters and others decreased [1]. 3.5 Market News and Demand - Supply Situation - **Market News**: In July, China's imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8% [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of phosphoric acid lithium iron and ternary materials increased, while the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide decreased and that of lithium manganate increased in August. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the latest data on lithium carbonate, lithium ore, cathode materials, and related price spreads and inventories. It also mentions that the Central Political Bureau will govern disorderly competition in enterprises and promote capacity management in key industries. In addition, it is expected that the futures price may face certain trends in the short - term due to factors such as the normal production of mines in Jiangxi, the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment caused by price drops, small increases in demand - side production schedules, and limited procurement space for downstream buyers [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,350 with no change, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 69,250 with no change [1]. - Among lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 69,200 with a 1.05% increase; lithium carbonate 2509 has a 0.09% increase; lithium carbonate 2510 has a 0.06% increase; lithium carbonate 2511 has a - 0.09% decrease; lithium carbonate 2512 has a - 0.35% decrease [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 760 with a change of 5 [1]. - The prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O contents are: 1085 for Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%, 1710 for Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%; the prices of amblygonite are 5350 for Li₂O: 6% - 7% (with a change of 75) and 6280 for Li₂O: 7% - 8% (with a change of 85) [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,630, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,170 with a 20 increase, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,855 with a 30 increase, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,485 with a 10 increase [2]. Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) is 2100; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2310 with a 200 change; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 120 with an 80 change; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 120 with a 200 change [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,726 with a - 1444 change, the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 51,958 with a - 3427 change, the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 45,888 with a 3073 change, the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,880 with a - 1090 change, and the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 12,603 with a 5998 change [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,441, and the profit is 75,292; the profit of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is - 6850 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 30 pointed out the need to deepen reforms, promote the development of new - quality productivity through scientific and technological innovation, and optimize market competition order. It also mentioned governing disorderly competition among enterprises and promoting capacity governance in key industries. The market sentiment may cool down due to the Politburo's stance on anti - involution and "low - price" expressions. In the short term, although downstream stocking is significant, downstream production scheduling has not increased, and the actual consumption of inventory is limited. There is a possibility of capital re - entry, and prices are expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation. Industrial players can consider hedging on price rallies [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 72,000 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 69,900 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Lithium Compound Futures - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 68,000 yuan/ton, down 4.87% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 4.66% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 68,440 yuan/ton, down 4.01% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 3.98% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 69,120 yuan/ton, down 3.46% [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 766 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,120 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan, down 25 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5,325 yuan, down 350 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6,250 yuan, down 375 yuan [2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,885 yuan, down 305 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,130 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,895 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,455 yuan, up 80 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,720 yuan, an increase of 1,370 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 280 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,726 tons, down 1,444 tons [2]. - The inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 51,958 tons, down 3,427 tons [2]. - The inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 45,888 tons, up 3,073 tons [2]. - The inventory of other sectors (weekly, tons) is 43,880 tons, down 1,090 tons [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 5,545 tons, down 6,731 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,893 yuan, and the profit is 7,621 yuan [3]. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 7,136 yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply expectations are somewhat restored but demand is temporarily weak. The raw - material side sees an increase in miners' willingness to support prices and rising ore prices due to disturbances in the lithium carbonate ore sector and domestic policy influence. The supply of lithium carbonate will gradually be controlled and converged. Demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement, and the inventory in the industry is still at a high level. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. The technical analysis shows that the 60 - minute MACD has green bars expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 70,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 175,122 hands, an increase of 11,099 hands. The main - contract position is 272,753 hands, a decrease of 27,867 hands. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 12,276 hands/ton, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 810 US dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of amblygonite is 6,625 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,367 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. The monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons. The monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons. The monthly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, an increase of 5%. The monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, an increase of 5,700 MWh. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 50,300 yuan/ton. The prices of manganese - acid lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, 811 - type ternary material, 622 - type power ternary material, and 523 - type single - crystal ternary material remain unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly capacity utilization rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, a decrease of 4%. The monthly capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 52%, an increase of 3%. The monthly output of new - energy vehicles is 1,268,000 units, a decrease of 2,000 units. The monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 units, an increase of 22,000 units. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new - energy vehicles is 44.32%, an increase of 0.33%. The cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles is 6,937,000 units, an increase of 1,993,000 units. The monthly export volume of new - energy vehicles is 205,000 units, a decrease of 70,000 units. The cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles is 1,060,000 units, an increase of 455,000 units [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 280,998 contracts, an increase of 36,611 contracts. The total put position is 129,317 contracts, a decrease of 6,461 contracts. The put - to - call ratio of the total position is 46.02%, a decrease of 9.538%. The implied volatility at the at - the - money level is 0.44%, a decrease of 0.0972% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October. The central bank's second - quarter survey shows that entrepreneurs and bankers have a neutral - to - cautious attitude towards the macro - economy, and residents' employment expectations are cold. Sino - US trade teams will continue to communicate on tariff issues. As of the end of 2024, the asset scale of 24 auto - finance companies in China was 855.134 billion yuan, with the new - energy vehicle loan balance increasing by 23.44% year - on - year and the second - hand car loan balance increasing by 26.06% year - on - year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply expectations are somewhat repaired, demand is temporarily weak, consumption expectations are positive, and price increases are due to the release of market sentiment, so caution is needed [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 70,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 186,221 hands, a decrease of 20,241 hands; the position volume of the main contract was 300,620 hands, a decrease of 77,852 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 12,276 hands/ton, an increase of 280 hands [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,530 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 810 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 2,367 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume was 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons; the monthly enterprise operating rate was 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, an increase of 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 5.03 million yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08 million yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate was 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 145,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 121,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 126,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 3.27 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 52%, an increase of 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000, a decrease of 2,000; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000, an increase of 22,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 44.32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 6,937,000, an increase of 1,993,000; the monthly export volume was 205,000, a decrease of 70,000; the cumulative export volume was 1.06 million, an increase of 455,000 [2]. Option Situation - The total call position was 244,387, an increase of 35,337; the total put position was 135,778, an increase of 2,858; the total position put - call ratio was 55.56%, a decrease of 8.0243 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility was 0.54%, a decrease of 0.1804 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments was held in Beijing on July 28, aiming to deepen reforms, promote the implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan", consolidate the achievements of the comprehensive rectification of the "involution - type" competition in the new energy vehicle industry, and strengthen the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics [2]. - Shanghai will expand the open area of autonomous driving, aiming to achieve full - area opening of autonomous driving test roads in Pudong New Area by the end of this year and promote the opening of Fengxian and Minhang areas [2]. - A new automobile central enterprise, China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd., is about to be established, and its social media accounts have been launched [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The main lithium carbonate contract dropped significantly, with a decrease of 5.9% at the close. The position volume decreased, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - On the raw material side, recent disturbances in the lithium carbonate mining end and domestic policies on industrial structure adjustment led to an increase in the futures price and stronger price - holding intentions of miners [2]. - On the supply side, affected by policies and mining events, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be gradually controlled. In terms of imports and exports, Chile's exports increased slightly in June, and the average price also rose significantly, which is expected to increase the domestic import volume and price [2]. - On the demand side, due to the rapid rise in lithium prices and the off - season, downstream acceptance of high - priced lithium carbonate is low, and only rigid - demand purchases are maintained, resulting in a dull trading situation in the spot market [2]. - In terms of inventory, the industrial inventory is still at a high level, and effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [2].