ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 白素娜 投资咨询号:Z0013700 从业资格号: F3023916 国贸期货研究院 2025/11/24 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号:F03123927 贵金属与新能源研究中心 据来源: SMM,公升新闻整理 平均价 100000 锂化合物 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 1000 92300 2500 80000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 89900 1000 2000 收盘价 期货合约 涨跌幅 60000 碳酸锂2512 90960 -8. 99% 91020 碳酸锂2601 -9% 40000 碳酸锂2602 -9% 91040 碳酸锂2603 91160 -8.99% 500 碳酸锂2604 91880 -8.99% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 1089 -28 = (120.5 5%-6%) | | 锂云母 (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | 1615 | -95 | 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 - 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

| | 锂云母 | 1710 | 85 | 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | - 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 一工业级碳酸锂-平均价 T./ HH | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 2700 | 125 | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 9575 | 675 | 5 | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 11075 | 675 | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 38745 | 580 | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 161550 | 400 | | | | | 三元材料523 (単晶/动力型) | 143750 | 700 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 144050 | 700 | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 変化值 | | | | | 电碳-工碳 | 2400 | -0 | | ...

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Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with the peak season of the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) continuing and the supply fluctuating at a high level without a significant increase, the price of lithium carbonate has obvious support at the bottom. Considering the hedging pressure and the resumption of production in Jiangxi's mining sector, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate widely in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 83,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 81,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2511, 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 are 84,920 yuan/ton (-0.35%), 86,500 yuan/ton (-0.21%), 86,580 yuan/ton (-0.21%), 86,280 yuan/ton (-0.32%), and 86,140 yuan/ton (-0.44%) respectively [1]. Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 984 dollars, and the prices of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) are 1,420 yuan, 2,245 yuan, 7,880 yuan, and 9,295 yuan respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan, 25 yuan, 20 yuan, and 20 yuan [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), and ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) are 36,605 yuan, 160,250 yuan, 141,150 yuan, and 141,650 yuan respectively, with daily increases of 245 yuan, 1,000 yuan, 400 yuan, and 1,500 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 3,280 yuan/ton, with a change of 960 yuan; the price spreads between the near - month and the first - continuous, and the near - month and the second - continuous contracts are - 80 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 120 yuan and 140 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 123,953 tons, with a decrease of 3,405 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other sectors (weekly, tons) are 30,715 tons (-1,336 tons), 52,008 tons (-1,280 tons), and 41,230 tons (-790 tons) respectively. The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) are 28,287 tons, with an increase of 188 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 82,955 yuan, and the profit is - 815 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 86,558 yuan, and the profit is - 6,476 yuan [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure at the upper level is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (there are rumors of mine resumption), and further stimulation from funds, events, and news is needed to continue the price increase. Otherwise, the price will be low [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 80,500 yuan with a decrease of 400 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,300 yuan with a decrease of 400 yuan [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts: Li2511 closed at 77,800 yuan with a decline of 1.12%; Li2512 closed at 79,060 yuan with a decline of 0.38%; Li2601 closed at 79,140 yuan with a decline of 0.45%; Li2602 closed at 79,000 yuan with a decline of 0.13%; Li2603 closed at 78,860 yuan with a decline of 0.43% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 920 yuan with a decrease of 11 yuan (Li2O: 5.5% - 6%); lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,290 yuan with a decrease of 25 yuan; lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 2,085 yuan with a decrease of 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 6,990 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8,340 yuan with a decrease of 80 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,925 yuan with a decrease of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,950 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,450 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,150 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 yuan with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,360 yuan with a decrease of 980 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 80 yuan with an increase of 20 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 60 yuan with an increase of 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons with a decrease of 3,008 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons with a decrease of 1,630 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons with a decrease of 1,987 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons with an increase of 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 26,830 tons with an increase of 340 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 78,943 yuan, and the profit is 425 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 82,750 yuan, and the profit is - 5,412 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure at the upper level is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (there are rumors of mine restarts), and further stimulation from funds, events, and news is needed to continue to drive up prices. Otherwise, prices will remain low [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,550 yuan, up 550 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,350 yuan, up 550 yuan [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 79,300 yuan, with a decline of 3.6%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 80,720 yuan, down 3.33%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 80,780 yuan, down 3.42%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 80,480 yuan, down 3.25%; lithium carbonate 2603 is 80,320 yuan, down 3.21% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 944 yuan, unchanged; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1380 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2180 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 7400 yuan, down 250 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 8825 yuan, down 250 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,940 yuan, up 135 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,850 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,300 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 137,950 yuan, up 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 230 yuan, with a change of 3170 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1420 yuan, unchanged; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1480 yuan, up 80 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons, down 3008 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons, down 1630 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons, down 1987 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons, up 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,621 tons, down 20 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 80,623 yuan, with a profit of - 1205 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 85,678 yuan, with a profit of - 8291 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Terminal demand is strong, social inventory is continuously decreasing, creating a short - term supply - demand mismatch that drives up prices. As prices rise, hedging positions on the supply side are gradually released, with lithium mica lithium extraction as the main incremental source. Due to rising ore prices, cost support has shifted upwards. In the short term, prices are likely to move upwards under the supply - demand mismatch but face pressure. In the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 76,550 with a rise of 1,150; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 74,300 with a rise of 1,150 [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 81,120 with a 2.27% increase; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 81,740 with a 2.43% increase; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 81,900 with a 2.53% increase; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 81,500 with a 2.57% increase; lithium carbonate 2603 has a closing price of 81,400 with a 2.36% increase [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 906 with a rise of 25; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1220 with a rise of 45; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1990 with a rise of 50; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 7250 with a rise of 275; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8600 with a rise of 350 [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) has an average price of 34,970 with a rise of 335; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) has an average price of 157,200 with a rise of 100; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) has an average price of 137,100 with a rise of 400; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) has an average price of 136,950 with a rise of 250 [2] Price Spreads - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 5350 with a change of - 1230; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 620 with a change of - 120; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 780 with a change of - 180 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 130,366 with a decrease of 2292; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 33,681 with a decrease of 602; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 55,275 with a decrease of 2460; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,410 with an increase of 770; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,739 with a decrease of 960 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of外购锂辉石精矿 is 78,206 with a profit of - 2756; the cash cost of外购锂云母精矿 is 81,293 with a profit of - 7862 [3] Industry News - Appian Capital Advisory, a UK private equity firm, is collaborating with the International Finance Corporation under the World Bank to launch a $1 billion critical minerals, metals, and mining fund focusing on emerging markets [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate industry may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate faster than supply, leading to inventory reduction in the industry. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 75,700 yuan/ton with no change. The net position of the top 20 is - 150,105 hands, a decrease of 12,910 hands. The main contract's open interest is 138,434 hands, a decrease of 20,566 hands. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 380 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 30,705 hands/ton, an increase of 19 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 872 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars/ton. The average price of amblygonite is 7,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,723 yuan/ton with no change [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, an increase of 1,260 tons. The monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons. The monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, an increase of 1%. The monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, an increase of 11,600 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton with no change. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 81,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 25,000 yuan/ton. The price of cobalt - lithium oxide is 326,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,000 yuan/ton. The price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 155,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 134,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 144,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,500 yuan/ton. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, a decrease of 2%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 yuan/ton with no change. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 59%, an increase of 2%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,617,000 vehicles, an increase of 226,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,604,000 vehicles, an increase of 209,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 46.09%, an increase of 0.55%. The cumulative sales volume is 11,228,000 vehicles, an increase of 2,908,000 vehicles. The monthly export volume is 222,000 vehicles, a decrease of 20,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume is 1.758 million vehicles, an increase of 830,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 19.86%, an increase of 0.03%. The 40 - day average volatility is 33.31%, a decrease of 0.45% [2] Option Situation - The total call open interest is 93,879 contracts, an increase of 15,242 contracts. The total put open interest is 35,432 contracts, an increase of 5,899 contracts. The put - call ratio of total open interest is 37.74%, an increase of 0.1861%. The at - the - money implied volatility is 0.31%, an increase of 0.0202% [2] Industry News - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology states that to achieve the goal of providing stable and reliable connection and computing capabilities for intelligent connected vehicles, three aspects need to be strengthened: increasing the installation rate of advanced vehicle communication capabilities, deepening network coverage of the driving environment, and matching network characteristics with scenario requirements. According to KBB, the average transaction price of new cars in the US exceeded 50,000 US dollars for the first time in September, reaching a record 50,080 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. The reasons include tariff - induced cost pressure on enterprises and the approaching expiration of the US federal electric vehicle tax credit policy. The vice - minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the ministry is formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the development of the intelligent connected new energy vehicle industry, including clarifying development goals, deploying key tasks, accelerating the formulation of standards for combined driving assistance and autonomous driving, optimizing management in the production field of intelligent connected vehicles, and standardizing industry competition. In September, the sales volume of pick - up trucks was 46,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% and a month - on - month increase of 14.6%. From January to September, the sales volume was 432,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. In September, the sales volume of new energy pick - up trucks was 4,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 104% and a month - on - month increase of 31%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 54,000 vehicles, a 440% increase [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, while demand increases, supply also increases simultaneously, and the futures price may mainly fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, production increases overall, which is the main factor suppressing the futures price. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and after the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of the spot price difference, the economic viability of independent energy storage has emerged, with the increase in tender volume indicating strong installation demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,550 with no change, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,300 with no change. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 [1][2] - Among futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 73,580 with a 0.33% increase; lithium carbonate 2511 is 73,340 with a 0.27% increase; lithium carbonate 2512 is 73,500 with a 0.38% increase; lithium carbonate 2601 is 73,440 with a 0.38% increase; lithium carbonate 2602 is 73,240 with a 0.6% increase [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 843, down 15; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1110, down 15; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1835, down 20; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6080; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7190 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 152,350, up 2000; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,850, up 1500; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 129,850, up 2500 [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 210, down 540; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160, down 100; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 100, up 60 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 134,801, down 2024; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,747, up 1255; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,765, down 1128; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 40,290, down 2150; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 42,379, up 670 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 74,486, and the profit is - 2006; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,806, and the profit is - 7315 [3] Technological Breakthrough - A research team led by researcher Huang Xuejie from the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Physics, in collaboration with Huazhong University of Science and Technology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering, developed an anion regulation technology, solving the problem of poor contact between the electrolyte and lithium electrode in all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. The research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3] Market Demand and Supply - In the fourth quarter, it is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. After the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of the spot price difference, the economic viability of independent energy storage has emerged, and the increase in tender volume indicates strong installation demand. The overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3]

| | 锂云母 | | | | 电硕-工候价差 元/吨 | = 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | 1125 | | -15 | | TT/ H | | | 锂云母 | | | | | | | | (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1855 | | -20 | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 6080 | | -70 | | | | | 磷锂铝石 | 7190 | | -95 | | | | | (Li20:7%-8%) | | | | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 33640 | | | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 150350 | | 1000 | | | | | 三元材料523 (单晶/动力型) | 122350 | | 600 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 127350 | | 700 | ...