热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 2026-02-24，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于143000元/吨，收于152640元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化 2.21%。当日成交量为300191手，持仓量为342226手，前一交易日持仓量353975手，根据SMM现货报 价，目前基差为-7720元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单38759手，较上个交易日变化1477手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价146000-158000元/吨，较前一交易日变化8250元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价143000-154000元/吨，较前一交易日变化8250元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2110美元/吨，较 前一日变化0美元/吨。春节期间，美国方面取消芬太尼关税、对等关税的实施，对冲拟提高的15%关税 后，我国储能系统出口美国综合总税率从48.4%降至43.4%，降幅约5%，同时OBBB法案对非受限实体 考核设有窗口期且认可电池混用方案，直接改善了中国储能企业的出口利润空间，显著提振了海外储能 市场对碳酸锂的需求预期。 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 reached the daily limit at 160,500 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 152,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 1,500 yuan/ton to 149,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 3,000 yuan/ton to 147,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 17 tons to 27,681 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons. The output from spodumene increased by 35 tons to 13,959 tons, from lepidolite increased by 20 tons to 2,956 tons, from salt lake increased by 40 tons to 3,185 tons, and from recycled materials increased by 20 tons to 2,435 tons. The lithium carbonate output in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, the output of ternary materials in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 5% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10% month - on - month to 363,400 tons; the output of ternary power batteries in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the output of lithium iron phosphate power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the output of lithium iron phosphate energy storage is expected to increase by 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, with the downstream inventory decreasing by 2,458 tons to 36,540 tons, the inventory in other links increasing by 2,080 tons to 55,020 tons, and the upstream inventory increasing by 715 tons to 18,382 tons [3]. - There are renewed disturbances in the resource end, and there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the first quarter. In the absence of a clear negative feedback in demand, the main strategy is to go long on dips. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the amplification of market volatility and position disturbances, and pay attention to supply - side disturbances (overseas and in Jiangxi) and right - hand opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The closing price of the main futures contract increased from 147,260 yuan/ton on January 19, 2026, to 160,500 yuan/ton on January 20, 2026, with an increase of 13,240 yuan/ton. The closing price of the continuous contract increased from 145,600 yuan/ton to 158,940 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,340 yuan/ton. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from 1,950 US dollars/ton to 1,985 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 35 US dollars/ton [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) increased from 151,000 yuan/ton to 152,500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) increased from 147,500 yuan/ton to 149,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) increased from 144,000 yuan/ton to 147,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized) increased from 148,350 yuan/ton to 151,850 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3,500 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) increased from 136,900 yuan/ton to 139,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased from 155,000 yuan/ton to 151,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3,500 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of some ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer - type) decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased to varying degrees [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: The report provides historical price charts of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: It includes historical price charts of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. - **Price Spreads**: There are charts showing the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2026 [19][20][21]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The report presents historical price charts of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: It includes historical price charts of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][35]. - **Inventory**: There are charts showing the downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links of lithium carbonate from May 29, 2025, to January 15, 2026 [37][39]. - **Production Costs**: The report provides a chart of the production cost of lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2026, including the cash production profit of purchasing ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate [42][43].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. With the active resumption of key mines, the expectation of supply contraction has weakened. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, 5 - consecutive - one, 3 - consecutive - two, 3 - consecutive - three, and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures all increased compared to September 12. For example, the near - month contract closed at 72,520 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan from September 12. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on September 15 was 482,790 lots (+71,801), and the open interest was 309,446 lots (+44). [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 12. [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 848 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars from September 12; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,075 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,975 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,065 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. [1] - **Demand**: - **Downstream Product Production**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. [1] - **Terminal Demand**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down; the 3C product shipments were average; the production of energy - storage batteries will increase in September. [1] 3.4 Inventory - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts were 38,963 tons (+338). [1] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while the downstream inventory increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 138,512 tons, down 1,580 tons from last week. [1] 3.5 Important Information On September 15, London - listed Savannah Resources said that after completing additional exploration work, the reserve estimate of its lithium mine project in northern Portugal increased by 40%. The spodumene reserve of Barroso resources is now expected to exceed 39 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 28 million tons, making it the largest spodumene deposit in Europe. [1] 3.6 Investment Strategy It is recommended to short at high levels. [1]