专家会：碳酸锂行业展望 20251120 摘要 碳酸锂需求增速显著，但前期供应过剩导致库存积压。2024 年 10 月至 11 月电池厂排产激增，加速去库存，推动价格上涨。当前全行业库存约 12 万吨，较上半年明显下降，但下游高增长使得实际降幅更为显著，市 场对缺货担忧加剧。 宜春地区采矿证到期企业停产，未到期企业部分生产，复产评估周期长， 短期内大规模复产可能性低，加剧市场对供应的谨慎态度。中国盐湖资 源开发受生态保护限制，难以大幅增加产量，非洲或成新的增量来源， 但储量占比有限。 非洲矿产开发进度较快，部分新项目将在 1-2 年内投产。澳大利亚矿产 供应随价格波动，若 2026 年价格低于 8 万人民币，增量有限；若保持 在 1,200 美元左右，则大部分矿可生产，但矿区品位下降导致成本上升， 限制产出。 第三世界国家倾向于用资源换技术，限制锂矿出口，要求本地生产高附 加值产品，导致落地周期变长，实际产出速度变慢。津巴布韦计划自 2027 年起禁止锂矿出口，智利也强调生态和可持续发展。 Q&A 今年以来碳酸锂市场的行情如何？价格走势和供需情况有何变化？ 2025 年上半年，碳酸锂市场处于供过于求的状态。年 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to fluctuate, and it is still bullish in the medium term. The short - term basis still has regression pressure, but considering the strong spot demand and continuous inventory reduction, the callback space of futures prices is also limited [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Lithium carbonate futures fluctuated. The selling sentiment in the A - share market and polysilicon was transmitted to lithium carbonate during the day, causing the futures price to fall to around 85,000 and then rebound at the end of the session. The total open interest increased by 11,156 lots, indicating strong capital entry willingness. The spot price of lithium carbonate rose by 1,000 to 83,300, and the basis has regressed. The prices of 6F, Australian ore, mica, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate all increased, and the price increase in the industrial chain continued, but the upward trend of electrolyte slowed down [8] 2. Industry News - Core Lithium optimized the mining plan for the Grants deposit in its Finniss lithium project, reducing pre - production capital expenditure by 35 - 45 million Australian dollars and advancing the production time of the first batch of ore. The ore reserves increased by 33% to 1.53 million tons, and the contained lithium oxide metal increased by 44% [11] - CATL's Chairman and CEO Zeng Yuqun said that the mass - produced fourth - generation lithium iron phosphate battery leads the mainstream second - and third - generation products in the industry, and the fifth - generation product has begun mass production, achieving new breakthroughs in energy density and cycle life [11] - The Jiangxi Natural Resources Department publicized the evaluation report of the mining right transfer income of the Jianxiawo lithium mine. According to the evaluation results, CATL may need to pay an additional 177 million yuan [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the commencement of a new lithium slag harmless comprehensive utilization project by Hunan Dazhonghe Lithium Mine Co., Ltd., which is expected to produce 80,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually by 2028 [1]. Group 1 - Hunan Dazhonghe Lithium Mine has launched a lithium slag utilization project that aims for an annual output of 80,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate, with completion expected in 2028 [1]. - On the same day, Dazhong Mining's parent company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Chenzhou Chengtai Mining Investment Co., Ltd., received a 30-year mining license for the Hunan Jijia Mountain lithium mine, marking the first large-scale lithium mining license obtained by Dazhong Mining [1]. - The lithium resources at the Jijia Mountain mine are evaluated at 48,987.2 million tons, equivalent to approximately 3.2443 million tons of lithium carbonate, with an approved open-pit mining scale of 20 million tons per year [1][2].

Report Title - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20251029: Beware of Price Reversals after Peaking" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand are both strong, with low inventory pressure upstream. The price is rising due to macro - improvement and warrant cancellation. However, production is continuously increasing, downstream inventory replenishment is slowing down, and the inflection point of power demand may be approaching. It is necessary to guard against price reversals after peaking. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [2] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Data on October 28, 2025 - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts of carbonate lithium futures decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 260 to 340 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract decreased by 260 yuan/ton to 81640 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 729307 lots, an increase of 214852 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 488803 lots, an increase of 5325 lots [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 27335 tons, a decrease of 404 tons compared to the previous day [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spread between consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 320 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - **Base Price**: The base price (SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium average price - carbonate lithium active contract closing price) was - 3140 yuan/ton, an increase of 2210 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] 2. Raw Material Prices - The prices of spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and various lithium ores increased. For example, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 925 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [2] 3. Lithium Product Prices - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased. The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 78500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1950 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - The average prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also increased slightly. The average price of battery - grade micro - powder lithium hydroxide was 79700 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] 4. Other Related Product Prices - The average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium (99.95% domestic) was 100500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - The prices of some ternary precursors and materials increased slightly, and the prices of some cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate also increased [2] 5. Inventory Data - The SMM carbonate lithium inventory decreased. The total inventory was 130366 tons, a decrease of 2292 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of smelters decreased by 602 tons, the inventory of downstream decreased by 2460 tons, and the inventory of others increased by 770 tons [2] 6. Industry News - On October 28, Dazhong Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary Liuzhou Chengtai Mining Investment Co., Ltd. obtained a 30 - year "Mining License" for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine. The lithium ore resource volume is 48987200 tons, equivalent to about 3.2443 million tons of carbonate equivalent. The open - pit mining scale is 20 million tons per year, which can produce 80000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [2] - Chile's lithium national strategy is advancing. The Chilean Ministry of Mining has submitted a decree to the Comptroller - General of the Republic, specifying the terms and conditions of CEOL contracts with several consortia, which will enable the development of a lithium project in the Quillagua Este area [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Mining's subsidiary, Chenzhou Chengtai Mining, has obtained a 30-year mining license for the Hunan Jijieshan lithium mine, marking a significant achievement in the strategic exploration efforts during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 1: Mining License and Resource Details - The Hunan Jijieshan lithium mine has a lithium ore volume of 490 million tons, equivalent to approximately 3.2443 million tons of lithium carbonate [1] - The mine's open-pit mining scale is set to reach 20 million tons per year, significantly surpassing other companies in the industry [1] - The annual extraction of 20 million tons of raw ore can produce 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate, positioning Dazhong Mining as a key supplier in the lithium battery raw material sector [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Compliance Aspects - Dazhong Mining is the first company in China to obtain a lithium mining license following the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law, highlighting its comprehensive compliance in environmental, safety, and construction design aspects [1] - The achievement reflects the efficiency of the new law in facilitating the approval process for the compliant development of strategic minerals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has obtained a mining license for the Hunan Jijia Mountain lithium mine, marking its first large-scale lithium mining license, with significant resource and production potential [1] Group 1: License and Resource Details - The mining license is valid for 30 years and was issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources [1] - The lithium resource amount is reported to be 48,987.2 million tons, equivalent to approximately 324.43 thousand tons of lithium carbonate [1] - The approved open-pit mining scale is 20 million tons per year, which can produce 80 thousand tons of lithium carbonate annually based on industry experience and company tests [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The acquisition of this license highlights the company's strategic move into the lithium mining sector, leveraging its resource advantages [1] - The scale of the mining operation positions the company favorably within the growing lithium market, which is critical for battery production and electric vehicle industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments regarding the verification of lithium resource reserves by eight lithium companies in Yichun, which is crucial for the lithium industry and capital markets, particularly concerning potential changes in mining types and production status [3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - On September 30, the deadline for the submission of reserve verification reports by eight lithium companies in Yichun was highlighted, with significant attention on whether there would be changes in mining types or production halts [3]. - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau issued a notice in July requiring these companies to compile reports to ensure compliance with auditing and regulatory standards, emphasizing the need to scientifically determine the primary mining type [4][6]. Group 2: Company Responses and Industry Context - The eight lithium companies, including Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co. and Yichun Guoxuan Mining Co., confirmed that their reports were prepared according to the regulatory requirements and are awaiting expert evaluations from the government [4][5]. - The lithium resources in Yichun are noted to be abundant, but the lithium content is generally low, with the region being referred to as "Asia's Lithium Capital" [5]. Group 3: Mining Type and Economic Viability - The submitted reserve verification reports were based on a lithium oxide grade of 0.2%, indicating no changes in mining types at this stage, although future changes may be necessary as the industry evolves [5][6]. - The article mentions that previously, lithium mining rights were only granted for lithium oxide grades of 0.4% or higher, but advancements in extraction technology and rising lithium prices have made lower-grade resources economically viable [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its strategy of prioritizing the supply of lithium concentrate products to its joint venture lithium salt enterprises, aligning with its resource advantage development strategy [1] Group 1 - The company confirms that its joint venture lithium salt enterprises serve as supporting smelting plants for its lithium mining operations, with investment income recognized based on ownership percentage [1] - The company states that the pricing principles for both related and unrelated transactions are consistent, referencing market prices for fair and reasonable pricing [1] - There are no instances of harming the interests of the company or its investors through related party transactions [1]

Core Insights - The company Dazhong Mining (001203) announced that the resource quantity of the Sichuan Gada Lithium Mine's first mining area has been approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources, with a total ore quantity of 43.436 million tons and a Li2O mineral quantity of 600.9 thousand tons, exceeding the company's expectations [1] Group 1 - The lithium ore resource quantity is 43.436 million tons, with an average grade of 1.38%, equivalent to approximately 148.42 thousand tons of lithium carbonate [1] - The company is advancing the procedures for exploration to mining transition and is conducting exploration outside the first mining area [1] - As of August 20, the company has completed 15,100 meters of drilling with a mineral discovery rate of 95% [1] Group 2 - The company has deployed two shield machines for simultaneous construction of exploration tunnels and shafts to facilitate subsequent engineering [1] - The company has determined the process flow for heavy flotation and combined selection in the beneficiation aspect [1] - Preliminary design and safety facility design for the tailings pond have been completed and reviewed by external experts [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. With the active resumption of key mines, the expectation of supply contraction has weakened. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, 5 - consecutive - one, 3 - consecutive - two, 3 - consecutive - three, and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures all increased compared to September 12. For example, the near - month contract closed at 72,520 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan from September 12. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on September 15 was 482,790 lots (+71,801), and the open interest was 309,446 lots (+44). [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 12. [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 848 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars from September 12; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,075 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,975 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,065 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. [1] - **Demand**: - **Downstream Product Production**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. [1] - **Terminal Demand**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down; the 3C product shipments were average; the production of energy - storage batteries will increase in September. [1] 3.4 Inventory - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts were 38,963 tons (+338). [1] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while the downstream inventory increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 138,512 tons, down 1,580 tons from last week. [1] 3.5 Important Information On September 15, London - listed Savannah Resources said that after completing additional exploration work, the reserve estimate of its lithium mine project in northern Portugal increased by 40%. The spodumene reserve of Barroso resources is now expected to exceed 39 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 28 million tons, making it the largest spodumene deposit in Europe. [1] 3.6 Investment Strategy It is recommended to short at high levels. [1]