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国泰海通|代币化:货币、金融的历史性变革——全球货币变局研究九
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-07-02 14:16
Core Viewpoint - The development of stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA) may lead to significant changes in the global monetary and financial systems, potentially creating a parallel decentralized system alongside the current centralized one, similar to the impact of AI on the global economy [1] Group 1: Monetary System - The essence of money is a "social consensus" and a "recording tool" that facilitates the exchange of labor and goods, with its value being largely dependent on public trust and recognition [4][5] - The formation of social consensus around a currency requires its scarcity to be maintained; excessive issuance can lead to inflation, undermining trust in the currency [6][7] - Legal tender serves as a centralized recording tool, relying on government trust to maintain its value and scarcity [7] Group 2: Stablecoins - In the context of increasing distrust in centralized monetary systems, stablecoins have emerged as a decentralized alternative, leveraging blockchain technology to create a shared, immutable ledger [10][11] - Stablecoins, particularly those backed by fiat currencies, dominate the market, accounting for 99% of the stablecoin market share since 2014, and can be viewed as digital representations of cash [11][12] - The rise of stablecoins may lead to a reconfiguration of the global monetary system, breaking down national borders and allowing for a more fluid exchange of value across different economies [12][13] Group 3: Real World Assets (RWA) - RWA represents the tokenization of real-world assets on the blockchain, allowing for decentralized trading and ownership of assets like stocks and bonds, similar to asset-backed securities [16][17] - The development of RWA could create a new financial market that operates parallel to traditional centralized markets, enabling direct wealth management on the blockchain without reverting to fiat currencies [17][18] - RWA can also enhance the monetary system by allowing tokenized assets to be used as currency for transactions, thereby expanding the definition of what can be considered money [18]
全球货币变局研究九:代币化:货币、金融的历史性变革
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-07-02 11:04
Group 1: Overview of Currency and Financial System Changes - The development of stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets) may create a parallel, decentralized currency and financial system alongside the current centralized system, potentially transforming the global monetary landscape significantly[5][20]. - The evolution of stablecoins and RWA could lead to changes comparable to the impact of AI on the global economy, presenting both opportunities and challenges for industries, institutions, and regulators[5][20]. Group 2: Nature of Currency - Currency fundamentally serves as a "social consensus" accounting tool, where its value is derived from collective trust rather than intrinsic worth[8][11]. - The scarcity of currency is crucial for maintaining its value and ensuring public trust; excessive issuance can lead to inflation and diminish the currency's acceptance[10][11]. Group 3: Stablecoins as a Parallel Currency System - Stablecoins emerged as a response to declining trust in centralized accounting systems, providing a decentralized ledger based on blockchain technology[13][14]. - As of 2014, stablecoins backed by fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar, accounted for 99% of the stablecoin market, indicating a strong preference for stability in value[14][15]. Group 4: RWA and Financial Market Innovations - RWA represents a method of tokenizing real-world assets on the blockchain, creating a decentralized market for these assets, similar to asset-backed securities (ABS) but utilizing blockchain for transactions[20][21]. - The growth of RWA could lead to a new financial ecosystem where investors can manage wealth directly on the blockchain without reverting to centralized financial systems[21][22].
全球货币变局研究九:代币化,货币、金融的历史性变革
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-07-02 08:41
Group 1: Macro Trends - The global monetary and financial systems may undergo significant changes in the next 5 to 10 years, driven by the development of stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA) [2] - Stablecoins and RWA could create a parallel, decentralized monetary and financial system outside the current centralized frameworks [2] - The transformation brought by stablecoins and RWA may be as impactful as the advancements in AI on the global economy [2] Group 2: Stablecoins - The trust in centralized accounting systems is declining due to excessive issuance of fiat currencies, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis [16] - Stablecoins, primarily backed by fiat currencies like the US dollar, account for 99% of the stablecoin market since 2014 [17] - The emergence of stablecoins addresses the volatility of cryptocurrencies, allowing for decentralized circulation while maintaining a degree of stability [19] Group 3: RWA (Real World Assets) - RWA represents the tokenization of real-world assets on the blockchain, similar to Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) but utilizing decentralized platforms [24] - The development of RWA could establish a new financial market on the blockchain, allowing investors to manage wealth without reverting to centralized financial systems [25] - RWA can function as a form of currency, enabling transactions without the need to convert assets into fiat currency [30]