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王永钦:美国终将无力向世界提供安全资产,这是中国国债的机会
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-23 03:25
Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of stablecoins may exacerbate the shortage of U.S. Treasury bonds, impacting global financial stability, and China should promote its bonds as a global safe asset to enhance the international status of the Renminbi and facilitate its internationalization [1][2][12]. Group 1: Stablecoins and Their Characteristics - Stablecoins are designed to improve upon cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but they fail to meet the three essential characteristics of money: singularity, elasticity, and integrity [1][8]. - The current form of stablecoins is primarily backed by sovereign currencies, particularly U.S. short-term Treasury bonds, which are similar to money market funds [1][6][7]. Group 2: Challenges and Shortages - The growth of stablecoins creates an inherent contradiction due to the shortage of global safe assets, especially U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to increased demand and higher prices for these bonds [2][9]. - This shortage is reminiscent of historical financial crises, such as the "National Banking Era" in the U.S. and the failures of shadow banking before 2008, where the scarcity of underlying safe collateral was a fundamental issue [2][10]. Group 3: Implications for China - To address the global shortage of safe assets, China should expedite the process of making its bonds a global safe asset, which would also support the internationalization of the Renminbi [2][19]. - The development of Chinese Treasury bonds is crucial for enhancing the Renminbi's status and providing a secure asset for international investors [20].
海通证券晨报-20250703
Haitong Securities· 2025-07-03 10:52
Group 1: Macro Trends and Innovations - The report discusses the potential transformation of the global monetary and financial systems due to the development of stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets), suggesting that these innovations may create a parallel decentralized financial system alongside the existing centralized one [2][3] - It is anticipated that the changes brought by stablecoins and RWA could be as significant as the impact of AI on the global economy, indicating a major shift in how currencies and financial systems operate [2][3] Group 2: Steel Industry Insights - Recent data shows a slight decrease in steel demand, with total inventory shifting from a reduction to an increase, indicating a potential weakening in demand as the industry enters a traditional off-season [5][6] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.7985 million tons, down by 4.33 million tons week-on-week, while total inventory rose to 13.4003 million tons, marking a 1.14% increase [5][6] - The report forecasts that steel demand may stabilize gradually, with construction and manufacturing sectors expected to support demand, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [6] Group 3: Cement and Building Materials - The cement industry is showing signs of stabilization after price adjustments, with competition and profitability continuing to improve [4] - The report notes that the national average cement price has seen a slight decline of 1.2%, with certain regions experiencing price increases due to demand fluctuations [8] - The building materials sector is expected to enter a low base period starting June 2024, which may improve demand metrics as previous high demand levels are compared against lower future figures [9] Group 4: Glass and Fiberglass Market - The domestic float glass market is experiencing a downturn, with average prices dropping to 1250.27 yuan per ton, reflecting a weak demand environment [8] - The fiberglass market is also facing challenges, with limited order growth and competitive pressures affecting pricing and profitability [8] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several steel companies that are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and high-quality development, including Baosteel and Hualing Steel [7] - In the cement sector, leading companies such as Anhui Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their market positions [10] - For the glass industry, companies like Fuyao Glass and Xinyi Glass are recommended based on their competitive advantages and market resilience [10]
国泰海通|代币化:货币、金融的历史性变革——全球货币变局研究九
Core Viewpoint - The development of stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA) may lead to significant changes in the global monetary and financial systems, potentially creating a parallel decentralized system alongside the current centralized one, similar to the impact of AI on the global economy [1] Group 1: Monetary System - The essence of money is a "social consensus" and a "recording tool" that facilitates the exchange of labor and goods, with its value being largely dependent on public trust and recognition [4][5] - The formation of social consensus around a currency requires its scarcity to be maintained; excessive issuance can lead to inflation, undermining trust in the currency [6][7] - Legal tender serves as a centralized recording tool, relying on government trust to maintain its value and scarcity [7] Group 2: Stablecoins - In the context of increasing distrust in centralized monetary systems, stablecoins have emerged as a decentralized alternative, leveraging blockchain technology to create a shared, immutable ledger [10][11] - Stablecoins, particularly those backed by fiat currencies, dominate the market, accounting for 99% of the stablecoin market share since 2014, and can be viewed as digital representations of cash [11][12] - The rise of stablecoins may lead to a reconfiguration of the global monetary system, breaking down national borders and allowing for a more fluid exchange of value across different economies [12][13] Group 3: Real World Assets (RWA) - RWA represents the tokenization of real-world assets on the blockchain, allowing for decentralized trading and ownership of assets like stocks and bonds, similar to asset-backed securities [16][17] - The development of RWA could create a new financial market that operates parallel to traditional centralized markets, enabling direct wealth management on the blockchain without reverting to fiat currencies [17][18] - RWA can also enhance the monetary system by allowing tokenized assets to be used as currency for transactions, thereby expanding the definition of what can be considered money [18]
全球货币变局研究九:代币化:货币、金融的历史性变革
Group 1: Overview of Currency and Financial System Changes - The development of stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets) may create a parallel, decentralized currency and financial system alongside the current centralized system, potentially transforming the global monetary landscape significantly[5][20]. - The evolution of stablecoins and RWA could lead to changes comparable to the impact of AI on the global economy, presenting both opportunities and challenges for industries, institutions, and regulators[5][20]. Group 2: Nature of Currency - Currency fundamentally serves as a "social consensus" accounting tool, where its value is derived from collective trust rather than intrinsic worth[8][11]. - The scarcity of currency is crucial for maintaining its value and ensuring public trust; excessive issuance can lead to inflation and diminish the currency's acceptance[10][11]. Group 3: Stablecoins as a Parallel Currency System - Stablecoins emerged as a response to declining trust in centralized accounting systems, providing a decentralized ledger based on blockchain technology[13][14]. - As of 2014, stablecoins backed by fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar, accounted for 99% of the stablecoin market, indicating a strong preference for stability in value[14][15]. Group 4: RWA and Financial Market Innovations - RWA represents a method of tokenizing real-world assets on the blockchain, creating a decentralized market for these assets, similar to asset-backed securities (ABS) but utilizing blockchain for transactions[20][21]. - The growth of RWA could lead to a new financial ecosystem where investors can manage wealth directly on the blockchain without reverting to centralized financial systems[21][22].
全球货币变局研究九:代币化,货币、金融的历史性变革
Group 1: Macro Trends - The global monetary and financial systems may undergo significant changes in the next 5 to 10 years, driven by the development of stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA) [2] - Stablecoins and RWA could create a parallel, decentralized monetary and financial system outside the current centralized frameworks [2] - The transformation brought by stablecoins and RWA may be as impactful as the advancements in AI on the global economy [2] Group 2: Stablecoins - The trust in centralized accounting systems is declining due to excessive issuance of fiat currencies, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis [16] - Stablecoins, primarily backed by fiat currencies like the US dollar, account for 99% of the stablecoin market since 2014 [17] - The emergence of stablecoins addresses the volatility of cryptocurrencies, allowing for decentralized circulation while maintaining a degree of stability [19] Group 3: RWA (Real World Assets) - RWA represents the tokenization of real-world assets on the blockchain, similar to Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) but utilizing decentralized platforms [24] - The development of RWA could establish a new financial market on the blockchain, allowing investors to manage wealth without reverting to centralized financial systems [25] - RWA can function as a form of currency, enabling transactions without the need to convert assets into fiat currency [30]