证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） Q2 环比加速调整，主动释放压力 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 实现收入/归母净利润 31.6 亿元/11.3 亿元，同比 -16.9%/-18.0%。公司自 24Q3 便开始主动调整，25Q2 加大出清力度，从普通 白酒到省外市场，我们认为包袱已基本得到出清，展望 25H2，我们认为在"禁 酒令"纠偏的背景下，迎驾核心产品洞藏 6/9 所处价格带需求有望率先修复， 考虑到公司提前出清及调结构，在低基数下有望改善。预计 25-27 年 EPS 分别 为 2.78 元、3.07 元与 3.35 元，当前股价对应 25 年 16.9 倍 PE，维持"增持" 评级。 ❑ 风险提示：省内竞争加剧、商务需求恢复不及预期、省外扩张受阻、升级产 品不及预期等。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 6720 | 7344 | 6 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying bottom opportunities in the liquor sector, with May retail sales data showing steady improvement [3][11] - The food and beverage index experienced a slight decline of 0.1% from June 16 to June 20, ranking 4th among primary sub-industries and outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points [3][13] - The report highlights that the recent ban on alcohol consumption has significantly impacted liquor demand and market sentiment, leading to a continuous decline in stock prices. However, recent media clarifications have provided a slight rebound in the liquor sector [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The liquor sector is focusing on bottom opportunities, with May retail sales data showing a steady upward trend [3][11] - The food and beverage index outperformed the market, with beer and liquor showing relative strength [3][11] 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage index had a decline of 0.1%, ranking 4th among 28 industries, with beer (+1.9%) and liquor (+1.1%) leading the performance [3][13] 3. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, which may alleviate cost pressures for beverage companies [16][33] 4. Liquor Industry News - The report notes that the liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for gradual recovery as valuations become more attractive [4][12] 5. Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Co. [5][12]