1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market's expectations for the probability of a US interest rate cut in December are highly volatile. Different metals have varying fundamentals and price trends, with some facing supply - demand imbalances and others influenced by macro - economic factors and industry - specific events [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - The Shanghai copper market closed higher on Wednesday, with the market refocusing on US employment pressure and waiting for relevant data. Freeport expects its Indonesian subsidiary's gold - copper output in 2026 to be the same as in 2025. The stop - loss point for short positions is adjusted down to 87,000 [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with spot discounts in East, Central, and South China slightly narrowing. Aluminum ingot and bar social inventories increased. The aluminum market may continue to adjust due to general short - term fundamentals and poor inventory feedback. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price, and the price difference with AL may narrow. Alumina has a high operating capacity, rising inventory, and an oversupply situation, and will operate weakly [2] Zinc - Both domestic and foreign mine TC decreased. Refineries' production cuts in November gradually materialized, and downstream buying sentiment improved. Shanghai zinc rebounded after testing the 60 - day moving average. The short - term domestic fundamentals are neutral. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there is room for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly, with dull trading. The market is concerned about overseas liquidity stability. Upstream price support is weakening, which may drag down the entire nickel industry chain. Nickel and stainless steel inventories increased, and nickel prices are expected to be weak [6] Tin - Shanghai tin rebounded with increased positions, but the increase was limited below 295,000. The Congo (Kinshasa)'s tin export restrictions do not affect major mines. The key factors for a tight supply in the future are the resumption of production in Dibang and the efficiency of Indonesia's Tianma's capacity rectification. High - position short positions should be held with a stop - loss at 295,000 [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, with active trading. Downstream material factories are actively producing, and the total market inventory decreased. The futures price is strong, with continuous inventory reduction and strong downstream demand. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose strongly with increased positions, driven by the significant increase in DMC prices after an organic silicon industry meeting. The market sentiment has shifted to optimism. The medium - to - long - term trend is bullish, but a technical correction after a concentrated release of sentiment should be watched out for [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose with reduced positions, mainly driven by the strong industrial silicon market. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the fundamentals have limited room for improvement. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and the impact of the "anti - involution" sentiment in the industrial silicon's downstream organic silicon sector should be noted [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ (Two empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market shows different trends, with some metals being affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external events [1][2][5]. - Some metals are expected to continue their current trends, while others are facing uncertainties and may enter a period of adjustment or consolidation. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper significantly increased its positions and continued its upward trend, actively digesting the force majeure of the Grasberg copper mine and domestic smelters' "anti - involution" statements [1]. - Global mine - end supply is tightening, and the environment for processing fee negotiations is difficult. The spot copper price has risen to 82,505 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan in Shanghai and a refined - scrap price difference exceeding 4,500 yuan [1]. - LME copper is expected to reach $10,500, and the Shanghai copper index may break through the previous high this year and continue to rise to 84,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the East China spot at par. The apparent demand in September was lower than expected, and the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons compared to Monday, with pre - National Day destocking less than in previous years [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price increasing by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is approaching 98 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory is continuously rising. Supply is significantly in excess, and prices are falling. The current price still allows for profit in the production capacity of Shanxi and Henan, making it difficult to trigger production cuts, and alumina is weakly running towards the June low of 2,800 yuan [2]. Zinc - Driven by the sharp rise in copper prices, the non - ferrous metal sector was generally strong, and Shanghai zinc rebounded to recover the previous day's decline. LME zinc rebounded after returning to the 40 - day moving average due to low overseas inventories [2]. - Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the overseas market is strong, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestic consumption during the peak season is weak, and due to tariff impacts, galvanized sheet exports weakened in August. Affected by the super typhoon "Saola", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened [2]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around the 22,000 - yuan mark [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and market trading was dull. The sharp rise in external copper prices drove up nickel prices, but the improvement in its own fundamentals was limited [5]. - The upward trend of stainless steel spot prices is difficult to sustain, but the pre - National Day stocking demand is gradually emerging. Stainless steel mills are still in a state of cost inversion, and cost - side support is emerging [5]. - Nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. Shanghai nickel has exhausted its bullish themes, and nickel prices are weakly running and about to start a downward trend [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin closed up, and the spot tin price increased by 2,300 yuan to 273,700 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 at night, and LME tin inventory rose to 2,740 tons. Wait for the social inventory data tomorrow and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are in a short - term strong - side oscillation, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons [6]. - The low - price support for lithium prices is emerging, but the selling actions in the industrial chain are basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of the "anti - involution" trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [6]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up at 9,055 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan maintained their high operating rates during the wet season. However, the incremental release of demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the social inventory of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [6]. - Driven by market sentiment and the expected increase in costs, the futures price is short - term strong, but the support for continuous rise is insufficient, and it will mainly continue to oscillate [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly up. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re - feeding materials was basically stable at 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM) [6]. - In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month change. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon are expected to be synchronously reduced, and polysilicon still faces a slight inventory accumulation pressure [6]. - On the policy side, the capacity clearance continues to be gradually promoted, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating at the lower end of the range [6].