Core Points - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold its fourth plenary session from October 20 to 23, 2025, in Beijing [3][5] - The main agenda includes reporting on work by the Political Bureau to the Central Committee and discussing the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development [5] - The meeting will analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year [5] Economic and Social Development - Emphasis on maintaining the Party's comprehensive leadership and ensuring the authority and centralized leadership of the Central Committee [6] - Commitment to prioritizing the people, respecting their primary status, and ensuring that the benefits of modernization are distributed more equitably among all [7] - Focus on high-quality development guided by new development concepts, promoting sustainable economic growth and comprehensive social progress [8] - Advocacy for comprehensive deepening of reforms and expanding high-level openness [9]

Group 1 - Citi maintains the Hang Seng Index target at 26,800 points for the end of this year and 27,500 points for mid-next year, driven by the 15th Five-Year Plan which is expected to catalyze growth in multiple sectors including technology, tourism, healthcare, insurance, and renewable energy [1] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong upward momentum this year, with expectations of broad recovery in earnings for both mainland and Hong Kong markets next year, supported by relatively low valuations compared to the US and Europe, and the Chinese market being one of the best performers when the US dollar weakens [1] - The outlook for internet stocks is positive, with AI expected to enhance advertising monetization and accelerate growth in AI computing platforms and cloud services, indicating that this sector is still in its early discovery phase [1] Group 2 - The gaming industry is expected to benefit from a supportive approval stance from mainland authorities, with at least 1,500 domestic games anticipated to be approved, and mobile gaming being less affected by foreign economic conditions [1] - The online retail sector is expected to recover healthily as competition in the food delivery market stabilizes [1] - The banking sector is viewed favorably due to public fund reforms driving capital inflows into financial stocks, and the potential for profit growth from adjustments in provisions, alongside the attractiveness of high-yield stocks amid declining interest rates in the US and China [1] Group 3 - The gaming and casino sectors are also seen as attractive, with current valuations being reasonable and low sensitivity to tax changes, alongside expectations for increased foot traffic from events like concerts during the Golden Week [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, but any further reduction in Hong Kong's best lending rate may depend on the stabilization of the local property market [2] - Citi has raised its earnings per share forecast for 2026 from 8.1% to 9.8%, benefiting from a low base in the internet sector, global economic growth, recovering demand for industrial stocks, and strong growth in the essential consumer goods sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and plan for economic work in the second half of the year, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic policies and the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to outline the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] Economic Growth - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, positioning it as a leader among major economies, with an expectation to achieve a GDP growth target of around 5% by 2025 [1] Capital Market - The meeting highlighted the need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the capital market, which is expected to boost investor confidence and support a stable upward trend in the stock market [1]