Economic Overview - The global economic growth rate for this year is approximately 3.1%, which is one percentage point lower than the pre-pandemic average [3] - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates above 5% [3] - Germany's GDP declined by 0.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, while inflation in France remains high [3] Debt and Financial Stability - Global debt has reached 330% of GDP, significantly higher than the 150% ratio during the 1929 crisis, indicating a precarious financial situation [3] - The 2008 financial crisis was mitigated by aggressive monetary policy, but this has led to a larger global debt bubble that now affects all countries [5] Income Inequality - There is a growing disparity between developed and developing countries, with the wealthiest 10% holding over 76% of global wealth, while the bottom half of the population receives less than 2% [5] - In the U.S., the top 1% has seen their income nearly quadruple over the past 30 years, while the bottom 50% has experienced stagnant real wages [5] Trust and Systemic Risks - The erosion of trust in economic systems is evident in political conflicts in the U.S. and social unrest in Europe, signaling a struggle for resource distribution [7] - The current U.S.-China relationship is characterized by a race against time, with both nations trying to maintain stability to avoid global repercussions [7] Long-term Economic Outlook - The current stability in the global economy is described as "false stability," with past reliance on globalization, low interest rates, and technology bubbles no longer sustainable [9] - The IMF's statement about entering a "new era of long-term low growth" highlights structural issues rather than cyclical ones [10]

此外，美元与美债收益率多年来走势相关性非常强，但近期也出现了割裂。 分析认为，这些迹象表明，美股反弹可能只是一场表面的狂欢，美债收益率异常上涨以及与美元走势的背离，指向美国结构性财政问题，或暗示 美元更深层次崩溃风险。随着美国政府预计发行超2万亿美元国债，缺乏买家的局面可能迫使美联储重启资产负债表扩张。 股市狂欢，但债市却在讲述一个不同的故事 美国通胀降温却未能安抚债市，美债收益率顽固上升。 周二，美国市场上演了令人困惑的一幕：美股反弹，科技股继续飙升，而美债收益率却在通胀数放缓的情况下反常走高，美元进一步走软。 中美关税暂缓叠加美国通胀降温，引发美股大涨，然而债市与美元的表现却透露出市场深层的忧虑。 数据显示，美国4月消费者价格指数同比增长2.3%，低于经济学家预期的2.4%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平。这本应是债券市场的利好消息，但 10年期美债收益率反而上升2.4个基点至4.481%。 Pomboy警告，美联储最终可能别无选择，只能重新扩大资产负债表。"美联储是唯一明显的候选人来吸收所有这些国债发行，"她说道，并补充说 尽管信贷价差没有反应，但信贷压力正在增加。 "这是一个结构性财政问题，"她总结道 ...