2025.09.30 本文字数：2670，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 受美国降息预期、对美国政府可能停摆的担忧以及地缘政治紧张局势升级影响，投资者选择涌入避险资 产，黄金价格周一首次突破3800美元，创下历史新高。纽约商品交易所12月交割的COMEX黄金期货结 算价上涨1.2%，报3855.2美元/盎司。市场分析认为，包括美元指数走弱、央行购买及黄金ETF热销等因 素或将继续主导未来的黄金走势。 多重利好助推 美国商务部上周五公布的数据显示，美联储最倚重的通胀指标核心个人消费支出（PCE）环比上涨 0.2%，同比稳定在2.9%。符合预期。 根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）的数据，交易员目前预计美联储在10月降息的 概率接近90%，12月再次降息的概率约为65%。 Capital分析师罗达（Kyle Rodda）表示："美国此次温和的通胀数据，让市场有理由相信美联储在年内 进一步降息。"他进一步分析称，"当前市场情绪非常乐观，本周金价有望再次测试历史新高。不过，目 前黄金市场的多头仓位较重，这可能成为未来金价上行需谨慎的一个原因。" 投资者也在关注美联储独立性问 ...

与之相反，珠宝需求对价格极为敏感，金价上涨会导致珠宝需求减少。同样出人意料的是，珠宝需求增加反而可能是金价的"利空信号"， 因为只有当金价下跌时，珠宝需求才会回升。 周一，现货黄金价格再创历史新高，触及3830美元关口，今年迄今已累计飙升逾45%。 黄金ETF和金价的每周波动 这一结论与布鲁金斯学会（The Brookings Institution）学者罗宾·布鲁克斯（Robin Brooks）的观点不谋而合。罗宾·布鲁克斯在X平台上发 文称，"市场并非在交易美元贬值，而是在交易各类法定货币相对黄金的普遍贬值"，这是"全球债务危机的信号"。 随着黄金价格再度刷新历史高位，一家头部银行指出，当前市场中有两股"主动买盘力量"是推动金价飙升的关键：各国央行与交易所交易 基金（ETF）。 在谈及黄金上涨的核心动力时，德意志银行的迈克尔·薛认为，"并非所有需求都具有同等影响力"。他指出，来自各国央行的官方需求对 价格不敏感——过去三年，央行每年新增黄金需求400至500吨，而这一增长恰好与金价大幅上涨同期出现。 德意志银行周一发布的报告显示，ETF对黄金定价的影响力，较过去三年提升了50%。这一数据也为该行9月17日 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, initially rising by $50 to reach a historical high before dropping by $50, erasing previous gains and potentially testing the $3500 level again [1][6][7] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of global debt crises and disappointing U.S. job vacancy data, which has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, benefiting gold [8][9] - The gold market has shown a strong upward trend, breaking through historical highs after four months of consolidation, with potential targets set at $3600 and support levels at $3510 and $3470 [7][8] Group 2 - The labor market data, including corporate layoffs and unemployment claims, is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, impacting gold investment strategies [9] - The current market environment emphasizes the importance of precise entry and exit points for gold investments, with a focus on risk management to maximize profit opportunities [9] - A trading team with over ten years of experience claims to achieve a high accuracy rate of 85% or more in gold trading, highlighting the potential for significant profit margins [9]

Global Economic Overview - The global economy is experiencing an unprecedented debt crisis, with rising government debts and increasing repayment risks, particularly in the US and Japan, while China remains relatively stable but faces challenges [1][22]. US Debt Situation - As of the end of May, the total federal debt in the US reached $36.2 trillion, with local government debt around $4 trillion, totaling over $40 trillion [3]. - The US debt market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a recent $720 billion bond auction failing, prompting the Federal Reserve to purchase over $40 billion in bonds in a month [8]. - The yield on US Treasury bonds has surged from approximately 0.5% in 2020 to 4.4% currently, leading to an increase in interest payments, which could reach $1.1 trillion from 2020 to 2024 [6][8]. Japan's Debt Crisis - Japan's government debt exceeds 1,323 trillion yen (approximately $9.2 trillion), accounting for 219% of its GDP, which is significantly higher than other major economies [13]. - The Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, which involved unlimited bond purchases, was halted last year, leading to a decline in bond prices and rising credit risks [14]. China's Debt Challenges - As of May, China's government debt stood at 88.1 trillion yuan (approximately $12.3 trillion), representing 65% of its GDP, with a significant amount of hidden debt, particularly in local government financing [17][18]. - The Chinese government has implemented a 10 trillion yuan plan to address local government debt and has been reducing interest rates to lower repayment costs [18]. Conclusion on Global Economic Trends - The trend of de-dollarization is becoming more apparent, providing China with an opportunity to challenge the dominance of the US dollar and establish a more equitable international economic order [22].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese credit market is experiencing a significant shift as credit risks and spreads have reached historical lows, driven by a combination of value imbalance, policy changes, and debt cycle dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Value Imbalance - The ratio of credit spreads to LPR spreads fell below 50% in the second half of 2024, leading to a disappearance of capital gain expectations [1]. - Institutional investors, such as banks and insurance companies, are shifting towards long-term interest rate bonds due to the imbalance in value, resulting in a sharp adjustment in the credit bond market [1]. - This institutional behavior has intensified the differentiation within the credit market, highlighting the severe inadequacy of overall credit spread value [1]. Group 2: Policy Dynamics - Since the initiation of the debt reduction policy in 2015, credit spreads have been on a long-term decline, but the policy focus has shifted towards urban investment transformation rather than debt reduction itself as of September 2024 [2]. - The next three years will see the completion of implicit debt replacement, leading to a reduction in policy support and a transition into a policy bottom phase for the credit market [2]. - The decrease in debt reduction funds and the advancement of urban investment transformation are gradually diminishing the factors that mitigate credit risk, necessitating attention to the survival pressures of tail-end entities [2]. Group 3: Debt Cycle Context - In the context of a global debt crisis, China has adjusted earlier due to pressures from real estate and local government debt, with credit risk pricing at historical lows [2]. - However, the pressures from external demand contraction and urban investment transformation are increasing actual tail-end risks [2]. - As the largest industrial nation globally, China’s reliance on external demand is facing challenges, while the push for urban investment transformation exacerbates credit risks for tail-end entities [2].