Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to geopolitical factors delaying the resumption of the Red Sea routes, the net profit forecast for China COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) for 2026 has been raised by 14.8% to 23.5 billion yuan, with a new forecast for 2027 net profit at 17.2 billion yuan [1][5] - The target prices for China COSCO Shipping's A and H shares have been increased by 8.6% and 13.8%, respectively, to 17.7 yuan and 16.5 Hong Kong dollars, while maintaining an "outperform the industry" rating [1][5] - The fourth quarter performance of China COSCO Shipping met market expectations, with total revenue of 219.504 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.14%, and a net profit of 30.868 billion yuan, down 37.1%, resulting in basic earnings per share of 1.99 yuan [1][5] Group 2 - For the fourth quarter, the company reported revenue of 51.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.21%, and a net profit of 3.799 billion yuan, down 65.39% [1][5] - Based on current profit assumptions, the projected dividend yields for A and H shares in 2026 are 5% and 5.7%, respectively [1][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight index (European line) futures price first declined and then rose on Wednesday. The main contract EC2604 closed up 2.2%, and the far - month contracts had different gains from - 1% to 1%. The improvement of macro and commodity sentiment drove the futures price up [1]. - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1792.14, down 67.17 points from last week, a 3.6% week - on - week decline [1]. - The cancellation of full tax - refund for photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting the long - term contract cargo volume. But after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the price increase brought by the news will be reversed, and the futures price will decline due to the weakening support from the spot end [1]. - China's foreign trade level rebounded unexpectedly in December 2026, with both imports and exports improving significantly, possibly related to the cancellation of VAT export tax - refund policies for some commodities and the pre - holiday rush of exports. China's exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [1]. - Maersk's freight rate quotes for weeks 7 - 9 decreased by 100 US dollars compared to week 6, and the price - cut pressure improved slightly. However, the quotes of other shipping companies such as COSCO and CMA continued to decline, and the trend of cutting prices to attract cargo before the holiday continued [1]. - The expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea has improved. The market is optimistic about the economic recovery of the eurozone, and inflation is approaching the target level, supporting the expectation that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future [1]. - The current freight rate market is greatly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1247.600, up 26.8; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1534, up 10.7 [1]. - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 286.40, up 9.40; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 357.00, up 3.00 [1]. - EC contract basis: 544.54, down 9.70 [1]. - EC main contract open interest: 32,761 hands, down 1468 hands [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1792.14, down 67.17; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1101.40, down 192.92 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1316.75, down 141.11; Container shipping capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.06 [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1175.59, down 33.16; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1574.69, down 13.50 [1]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2028.00, up 96.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1724.00, up 24.00 [1]. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 0.00, unchanged; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 27,927.00, up 1913.00 [1]. Industry News - The US White House said that talks with Iran later this week will still be held as planned. Iran hopes to move the talks to Oman and hold them bilaterally, but has not responded yet [1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Richmond Fed President巴金 emphasized that monetary policy should remain cautious before inflation fully returns to the target [1]. - The first central No.1 document of the "14th Five - Year Plan" was released on February 3, aiming to promote rural revitalization and modernize agriculture [1]. Key Data to Watch - February 5, 15:45: France's December industrial output month - on - month rate [1]. - February 5, 18:00: Eurozone's December retail sales month - on - month rate [1]. - February 5, 20:00: UK's central bank interest rate decision as of February 5 [1]. - February 5, 21:15: Eurozone's European Central Bank deposit facility rate as of February 5 [1]. - February 5, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended January 31 (in 10,000 people) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The EC spot and futures markets are in a game situation intertwined with policies and geopolitical factors, showing a differentiation feature of short - term sentiment - driven and long - term fundamental support. The market has not formed a clear trend yet, with short - term being dominated by policy news and sentiment, and long - term depending on global foreign trade recovery rhythm, capacity adjustment and substantial improvement of terminal demand. [8] - The current market core logic revolves around three variables: short - term rush - shipping expectations due to PV export tax - rebate policy adjustment, Red Sea resumption expectations due to geopolitical easing, and the differentiated recovery of the euro - zone economy. [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1458, down 7.39% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1209, down 0.09%. SCFI - US West is down 5.01%, SCFIS - US West is down 0.84%, SCFI - US East is down 8.44%, SCFI - Northwest Europe is down 4.83%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe is down 4.86%, and SCFI - Mediterranean is down 7.61%. [5] - **Shipping Schedule**: For the European line FAL1, the last east - bound return ship through Suez is CMA CGM BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, expected to pass on February 1, and then resume on April 6. For FAL3, the last east - bound return ship through Suez is CMA CGM SEINE, expected to pass on January 25. For the Mediterranean line MEX, the last east - bound return ship through Suez is CMA CGM GRACE BAY, expected to pass on January 22. There are no resumption plans for FAL3 and MEX currently. [5][6] 3.2 Market Conditions - **Overall Trend**: The market shows a volatile and slightly strong trend. [7] - **Spot Prices**: For the European line 40 - foot container freight, different alliances have different quotes. In the future one or two weeks (late January - early February), most quotes are expected to decline before the Spring Festival due to the low - cargo period. [7] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: Driven by short - term sentiment, it strengthened overall at first, then corrected due to weakened spot support and calmed sentiment. The far - month contracts are more resilient. [8] - **Spot Market**: It is in a balance state of shipping companies' quotation adjustment and supply - demand game. Some shipping companies lower short - term quotes to compete for cargo volume, but potential rush - shipping demand provides implicit support. [8] 3.4 Strategy - The cost - performance of short - selling in the short - term decreases. Pay attention to going long on the 06 contract at low positions and short - selling the off - season 10 contract on rebounds. [9]

Group 1 - The main contract for container shipping on the European route opened higher and rose over 4% in early trading on December 1, with ongoing discussions about whether the peak demand for the season has already occurred in December or will be delayed until January due to the later timing of the Spring Festival [1] - The 02 contract's ability to stabilize and rebound will depend on actual verification from the spot market, as there has been a lack of clear positive factors and continuous weakening of freight rates [1] - There is potential for upward movement in the 02 contract driven by favorable spot market conditions, especially considering the possibility of a delayed peak in cargo volume due to the Spring Festival [1] Group 2 - The expectation for the resumption of the Red Sea route continues to develop, with the Gemini Alliance announcing plans to restore the east-west shipping network centered around the Suez Canal once safety conditions allow, although no specific timeline has been established yet [3] - Freight rates have seen significant adjustments, with Maersk's new AE1 route to Rotterdam quoting $2,200, a decrease of $300 week-on-week, while HPL and CMA have also reduced their rates for December [3] - As the second half of December approaches, the focus is shifting towards the potential downward space for freight rates, with the 02 contract expected to gradually lower its central tendency, highlighting the importance of shipping companies' pricing strategies [3]