Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass - Supply remains flat, but there will be strong supply pressure in the future. The downstream deep - processing order days are still at a low level over the years. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, glass demand is expected to pick up month - on - month. Glass factory inventories have increased. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, with weak driving force for the futures market. Adopt a sideways trading approach, with the glass index operating range referring to 1100 - 1205. Key events to watch include glass production, glass factory inventories, and glass spot prices [4]. 纯碱 - Soda ash production has recovered to a high level, and demand is expected to decline under pressure. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the trend of inventory accumulation in soda ash plants is hard to reverse. Although the industry fundamentals are bearish, considering that it is the peak maintenance season, there are still disturbances on the supply side. It is advisable to wait and see for the time being. The operating range of the soda ash index refers to 1300 - 1450. Key events to watch include soda ash plant maintenance, soda ash plant inventory accumulation, and glass production [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Price - The mainstream market glass prices are running weakly [8]. Supply - The production of float glass was flat week - on - week, and there will be certain supply pressure in the future. Glass technical transformation may end before the peak season. Last week, the float glass production was 1.107 million tons (+0), and the national float glass operating rate was 75.34% (+0.15) [11][13]. Demand - As of July 31, the downstream deep - processing factory order days were 9.55 days (+0.25), and downstream demand was at a low level compared with the same period over the years. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, glass demand is expected to increase month - on - month. Last week, the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 20.7615 million weight boxes (+0.769) [15][17]. Inventory - Speculative demand weakened, and futures - cash traders sold off, squeezing the production and sales of glass factories, resulting in an increase in glass factory inventories. Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes (+1.579). The in - plant inventory in Hubei last week was 6.38 million weight boxes (+0.49) [19][21]. Cost and Profit - Last week, glass costs decreased, and profits declined. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1429 yuan/ton (-24); using coal - made gas as fuel was 1023 yuan/ton (-1); using petroleum coke as fuel was 1068 yuan/ton (-9) [29][31]. Basis and Spread - As of August 15, the glass 01 basis was - 171; the glass 05 basis was - 269; the glass 09 basis was - 6. The basis has a weak driving force for the futures market. The glass 9 - 1 contract spread was - 165; the glass 1 - 5 contract spread was - 98. There are currently no spread trading opportunities [41][45]. Soda Ash Price - The mainstream market prices of light and heavy soda ash are oscillating weakly [48]. Supply - Last week, soda ash production increased week - on - week and was at a high level, exerting certain downward pressure on the futures market. Last week, the soda ash production was 761,300 tons (+16,700), including 331,600 tons of light soda ash (+10,400) and 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash (+6,300) [52][54]. Demand - There are expectations of production cuts in photovoltaic glass, while float glass production is expected to rise. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to decline, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily production of float and photovoltaic glass was 247,755 tons. The apparent demand for soda ash increased week - on - week, reaching 732,600 tons (+57,300) last week [56][59][61]. Inventory - Supply increased while demand declined, leading to an increase in soda ash plant inventories. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons (+28,700), including 760,000 tons of light soda ash inventory (+42,400) and 1.1338 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (-13,700) [64][66]. Cost and Profit - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs increased and profits declined. Currently, the cost support for the heavy soda ash combined - soda process in the East China region is around 1240 yuan/ton [71][72]. Basis, Spread and Soda - Glass Spread - As of August 15, the soda ash 01 contract basis was - 112; the soda ash 05 contract basis was - 167; the soda ash 09 contract basis was - 10. The basis has a weak driving force, and it is advisable to wait and see. The soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread was - 102; the soda ash 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55. There are currently no spread trading opportunities. The glass - soda ash 01 contract spread was - 184; the glass - soda ash 05 contract spread was - 141; the glass - soda ash 09 contract spread was - 247. It is advisable to wait and see for the glass - soda ash spread [79][83][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the main contract SA2509 increased by 3.10% compared to the previous week, reaching 1365 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1340 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous week [2]. - The supply is at a relatively high level currently, with few device overhauls. Production profits are still differentiated. The expected production will decline in early May as the number of overhauling enterprises increases. The downstream demand is weak, with low inventory - building intentions of downstream enterprises. The inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, with increasing supply and weakening demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - The soda ash futures fluctuated at a low level last week, and the spot price rose. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - **L利多 Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [5]. - **L利空 Factors**: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The cold - repair rate of downstream float glass is high, with decreasing daily melting volume, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The full - scale escalation of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [6]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level in the same period. The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract SA2509 was 1365 yuan/ton, up 3.10% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1340 yuan/ton, up 3.88%. The main basis was - 25 yuan/ton, down 26.47% [2][8]. Soda Ash Spot Market - **Price**: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1340 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous week [14]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of the combined - soda process for heavy soda ash in East China was 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China was - 62.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a low level in the same period [17]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 89.44%, showing a stable rebound. The weekly production was 75.71 tons, with heavy soda ash production at 41.55 tons, declining from a historical high. The heavy - production rate was 54.88% [20][22][24]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added capacity is 750 tons, with 60 tons actually put into production [25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 102.69% [28]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.78 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, and the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, with production stabilizing [31][34]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 169.10 tons, including 84.05 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a high level in the same historical period [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].