Maike 迈科期货 @2019 Maike Futures 玻璃核心观点 www.mkqh.com 玻璃产量上升库存增加，碱厂累库压力较大 TO DISCOVER VALU TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE 投研服务中心- -符佳敏 2025.08.18 - 供应：上周玻璃产量持稳,玻璃技改可能在旺季前结束,预计后续有一定供应 压力。上周浮法玻璃产量110.7万吨（+0），全国浮法玻璃开工率75.34% (+0.15) 。 需求：7月31日下游深加工厂订单天数9.55天（+0.25），下游需求处于历年 同期偏低水平。金九银十旺季来临，预计玻璃需求将环比走高。上周浮法玻璃 周度表需2076.15万重量箱（+76.9）。 - 库存: 投机需求走弱,期现商抛货,挤压玻璃厂产销,玻璃厂库存增加。上周 全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6342.6万重箱（+157.9）。上周湖北厂内库存 638万車量箱(+49)。 - 成本与利润：上周玻璃成本下行，利润下降。 - 结论及观点：玻璃供应环比持平，后续有较强供应压力。下游深加工订单天数 仍处历年低位水平，金九银十旺季来临，玻璃需求预计环比回升。玻璃厂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The glass supply and demand situation is deteriorating in the first half of 2025, leading to a decline in prices, with the market expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [1] Supply Analysis - Glass daily melting capacity is projected to fluctuate between 155,000 to 159,000 tons, with a slight decline expected if profit levels are maintained [1] - In the second half of 2024, some production lines will undergo cold repairs, reducing daily melting capacity to 158,000 tons by the end of the year [1] - Current daily melting capacity is at a relatively low level compared to recent years, with varying profit and loss situations across different fuel production lines [1] Demand Analysis - Glass demand is closely linked to real estate completions, with a 20% year-on-year decline in new construction in 2023, leading to a forecasted decrease in completions in 2025 [1] - From January to May 2025, glass demand decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, with a slow recovery in April but overall weak performance during the peak season [1] - The demand for glass is expected to remain weak due to the anticipated decline in real estate completions in 2025 [1] Inventory Situation - High inventory levels have accumulated due to low daily melting capacity and weak demand from January to May 2025, particularly in Hubei province [1] - Effective inventory reduction will require significant cold repairs or a noticeable improvement in demand [1] Price Trends - Glass prices have experienced significant declines, with the market going through four phases in the first half of 2025, including a rebound in late March followed by a sharp drop due to low demand and high inventory levels [1] - The monthly price structure is expected to maintain a contango format, with the market's outlook for future demand remaining pessimistic [1]