Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent surge in soda ash futures prices, with a notable increase of 6.75% reaching 1440.00 yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment and potential volatility in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Soda ash futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at 1449.00 yuan, reflecting a strong upward trend in the market [1]. - New Lake Futures views the short-term outlook for soda ash as oscillating with a slight upward bias, citing stable yet slightly strong trends in the spot market [2]. - According to Wenkang Futures, the market sentiment remains high, with stable spot prices and a slight decrease in inventory pressure, although the supply-demand imbalance persists [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent data shows a 2.43 million ton increase in soda ash production week-on-week, with overall production slightly higher than last year [2]. - Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs, with glass manufacturers supplementing low-priced soda ash, while expectations of reduced production in the photovoltaic glass sector may negatively impact demand [2]. - Inventory levels indicate a decrease of 21,400 tons in factory stocks, primarily in light soda ash, while social inventory saw an increase of 8,600 tons week-on-week, highlighting ongoing supply pressures [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall supply situation remains relatively oversupplied, which is expected to exert long-term pressure on prices despite short-term fluctuations due to maintenance disruptions [2]. - The market is advised to monitor macroeconomic policies and raw material costs, particularly coal prices, as these factors could influence market sentiment and pricing strategies [2]. - Wenkang Futures suggests that while short-term price movements may be strong, the long-term outlook remains constrained by fundamental supply-demand issues, recommending a cautious approach to trading strategies [3].

Market Review - The main pure soda futures contract closed at 1225 CNY/ton, with an increase of 1.16% [1] Fundamental Summary - As of July 17, the theoretical profit for ammonia-soda method pure soda in China was -83.20 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.90 CNY/ton compared to the previous period [2] - On July 18, Henan Haohua Junhua's pure soda facility reduced output due to boiler issues, expected to resume operations the next day; Chongqing Heyou Industrial's 400,000 tons/year pure soda facility is operating at reduced capacity; Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year pure soda facility is also running at about 70% capacity [2] - As of July 17, the total inventory of domestic pure soda manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, an increase of 42,200 tons from the previous Thursday, representing a rise of 2.26%. This week, the inventory trend continues to accumulate, reaching a new record high, indicating significant oversupply pressure in the market [2] Institutional Perspectives - Minmetals Futures noted that the operating rate of downstream float glass remains stable, while the operating rate of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, leading to weak demand for pure soda. Although some companies have increased their operating loads, the mid-term supply remains loose, and inventory pressure continues to grow. The net short positions have decreased, but short positions remain concentrated. In the short term, a rebound driven by market sentiment is expected, but the fundamental supply-demand contradiction persists, indicating a weak trend in the medium term [3] - Jianxin Futures stated that with the recovery of summer maintenance facilities, pure soda production has increased significantly, leading to substantial inventory accumulation. On the demand side, major domestic photovoltaic companies are gradually implementing production cuts in response to "anti-involution," resulting in a decrease in daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass, which raises expectations for reduced production in downstream glass. Therefore, the demand outlook is bearish. Additionally, the accumulation of inventory among companies continues, maintaining an overall surplus that suppresses prices. On the macro front, the Central Financial Committee's meeting proposed "orderly exit of backward production capacity," coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts by the central bank, which may enhance market risk appetite. The future market trend is expected to follow a strong oscillation in the short term, while the fundamental supply-demand contradiction remains bearish in the long term [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the trend of soda ash is weakly stable with relatively flexible prices. The spot supply - demand is weak, providing insufficient support for futures prices, and investors should avoid blind optimism [9][11][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Review** - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 fluctuated between 1244 - 1163 yuan/ton, maintaining a low - level oscillation. As of the afternoon close on July 4, 2025, the main futures contract SA2509 rose 43 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.66%, closing at 1217 yuan/ton [6]. **Fundamental Analysis** - **Supply Side** - As of July 10, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 709,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. Among them, the light soda ash production was 308,800 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 400,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, remaining unchanged. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 82.56%, a 1.24% increase, and the joint - production capacity utilization rate was 70.33%, a 3.04% decrease [7][12][14]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,863,400 tons, an increase of 15,300 tons or 0.83% compared to the previous Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 791,300 tons, a decrease; the heavy soda ash inventory was 1,072,100 tons, an increase. The enterprise shipment slowed down, and some enterprises had inventory accumulation [8][16]. - The shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 655,100 tons, a 1.69% decrease; the overall shipment rate was 92.40%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points. The supply was adjusted at a high level, mainly shipping previous orders, and the production - sales rate remained in a weak balance [18]. - **Demand Side** - As of July 10, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase compared to the 3rd. The weekly output was 1.107 million tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous period and a 7.16% decrease year - on - year [21]. - As of July 10, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes or 2.87% compared to the previous period, and a 5.54% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 28.9 days, a decrease of 1 day compared to the previous period [26]. **Market Price** - The prices of some raw materials and products changed. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie steam coal increased by 2 yuan/ton or 0.32%; the price of well - mined salt in Northeast China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.57%; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.57%; the price of heavy soda ash in South China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.45%; the price of float glass decreased by 3 yuan/ton or 0.26%; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 46 yuan/ton or 1.98% [32]. **Market Outlook** - **Supply Side**: Production and capacity utilization remain unchanged, with narrow fluctuations in device operation and relatively stable supply. The inventory increased slightly [9][34]. - **Demand Side**: The supply of soda ash is adjusted at a high level, downstream demand is average, mainly purchasing at low prices and making appropriate supplements. The overall intention to stock is low, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the production - sales rate remains in a weak balance [9][34]. - **Production Forecast**: It is expected that the float glass production line will be stable this week, while the photovoltaic glass has a reduction expectation of about 2300 tons [11][34].