Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. It's advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened and closed higher, showing a slightly stronger intraday trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are opening downward, indicating a short - term continuation of the weak and volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the 30 - and 20 - day moving averages, and support is near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 172,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 13,245 lots. The intraday high was 1185, the low was 1159, and the closing price was 1185, up 17 yuan/ton or 1.46% compared to the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It showed a light and stable oscillation. The enterprise equipment is gradually increasing. Wucai Alkali Industry's equipment has resumed operation, while Xuzhou Fengcheng has slightly reduced production. The overall supply continues to increase, but downstream demand is average, with cautious purchasing and mainly low - price demand - based procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1250, and the basis is 65 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, domestic soda ash production was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3600 tons or 0.46%. Light soda ash production was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2700 tons; heavy soda ash production was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40% from last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons and above was 89.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 1.49% compared to Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 82,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1900 tons; heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons. Compared to last Thursday, it decreased by 53,800 tons or 3.42%. Among them, light soda ash was 824,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,500 tons; heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,300 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9170 tons or 6.41% [2][3] - **Demand**: The soda ash enterprise's shipment volume was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. The overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, mainly consuming inventory and making low - price rigid - demand purchases [3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (per two tons) was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall production is constantly increasing. There is still an expectation of cold - repair for glass production lines near the end of the month, and the rigid demand for soda ash may further weaken. In general, under the expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction continues to intensify. Although exports remain high, alleviating some pressure, the high inventory pressure still restricts price rebounds [4]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent surge in soda ash futures prices, with a notable increase of 6.75% reaching 1440.00 yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment and potential volatility in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Soda ash futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at 1449.00 yuan, reflecting a strong upward trend in the market [1]. - New Lake Futures views the short-term outlook for soda ash as oscillating with a slight upward bias, citing stable yet slightly strong trends in the spot market [2]. - According to Wenkang Futures, the market sentiment remains high, with stable spot prices and a slight decrease in inventory pressure, although the supply-demand imbalance persists [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent data shows a 2.43 million ton increase in soda ash production week-on-week, with overall production slightly higher than last year [2]. - Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs, with glass manufacturers supplementing low-priced soda ash, while expectations of reduced production in the photovoltaic glass sector may negatively impact demand [2]. - Inventory levels indicate a decrease of 21,400 tons in factory stocks, primarily in light soda ash, while social inventory saw an increase of 8,600 tons week-on-week, highlighting ongoing supply pressures [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall supply situation remains relatively oversupplied, which is expected to exert long-term pressure on prices despite short-term fluctuations due to maintenance disruptions [2]. - The market is advised to monitor macroeconomic policies and raw material costs, particularly coal prices, as these factors could influence market sentiment and pricing strategies [2]. - Wenkang Futures suggests that while short-term price movements may be strong, the long-term outlook remains constrained by fundamental supply-demand issues, recommending a cautious approach to trading strategies [3].

Market Review - The main pure soda futures contract closed at 1225 CNY/ton, with an increase of 1.16% [1] Fundamental Summary - As of July 17, the theoretical profit for ammonia-soda method pure soda in China was -83.20 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.90 CNY/ton compared to the previous period [2] - On July 18, Henan Haohua Junhua's pure soda facility reduced output due to boiler issues, expected to resume operations the next day; Chongqing Heyou Industrial's 400,000 tons/year pure soda facility is operating at reduced capacity; Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year pure soda facility is also running at about 70% capacity [2] - As of July 17, the total inventory of domestic pure soda manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, an increase of 42,200 tons from the previous Thursday, representing a rise of 2.26%. This week, the inventory trend continues to accumulate, reaching a new record high, indicating significant oversupply pressure in the market [2] Institutional Perspectives - Minmetals Futures noted that the operating rate of downstream float glass remains stable, while the operating rate of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, leading to weak demand for pure soda. Although some companies have increased their operating loads, the mid-term supply remains loose, and inventory pressure continues to grow. The net short positions have decreased, but short positions remain concentrated. In the short term, a rebound driven by market sentiment is expected, but the fundamental supply-demand contradiction persists, indicating a weak trend in the medium term [3] - Jianxin Futures stated that with the recovery of summer maintenance facilities, pure soda production has increased significantly, leading to substantial inventory accumulation. On the demand side, major domestic photovoltaic companies are gradually implementing production cuts in response to "anti-involution," resulting in a decrease in daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass, which raises expectations for reduced production in downstream glass. Therefore, the demand outlook is bearish. Additionally, the accumulation of inventory among companies continues, maintaining an overall surplus that suppresses prices. On the macro front, the Central Financial Committee's meeting proposed "orderly exit of backward production capacity," coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts by the central bank, which may enhance market risk appetite. The future market trend is expected to follow a strong oscillation in the short term, while the fundamental supply-demand contradiction remains bearish in the long term [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the trend of soda ash is weakly stable with relatively flexible prices. The spot supply - demand is weak, providing insufficient support for futures prices, and investors should avoid blind optimism [9][11][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Review** - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 fluctuated between 1244 - 1163 yuan/ton, maintaining a low - level oscillation. As of the afternoon close on July 4, 2025, the main futures contract SA2509 rose 43 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.66%, closing at 1217 yuan/ton [6]. **Fundamental Analysis** - **Supply Side** - As of July 10, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 709,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. Among them, the light soda ash production was 308,800 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 400,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, remaining unchanged. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 82.56%, a 1.24% increase, and the joint - production capacity utilization rate was 70.33%, a 3.04% decrease [7][12][14]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,863,400 tons, an increase of 15,300 tons or 0.83% compared to the previous Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 791,300 tons, a decrease; the heavy soda ash inventory was 1,072,100 tons, an increase. The enterprise shipment slowed down, and some enterprises had inventory accumulation [8][16]. - The shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 655,100 tons, a 1.69% decrease; the overall shipment rate was 92.40%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points. The supply was adjusted at a high level, mainly shipping previous orders, and the production - sales rate remained in a weak balance [18]. - **Demand Side** - As of July 10, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase compared to the 3rd. The weekly output was 1.107 million tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous period and a 7.16% decrease year - on - year [21]. - As of July 10, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes or 2.87% compared to the previous period, and a 5.54% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 28.9 days, a decrease of 1 day compared to the previous period [26]. **Market Price** - The prices of some raw materials and products changed. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie steam coal increased by 2 yuan/ton or 0.32%; the price of well - mined salt in Northeast China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.57%; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.57%; the price of heavy soda ash in South China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.45%; the price of float glass decreased by 3 yuan/ton or 0.26%; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 46 yuan/ton or 1.98% [32]. **Market Outlook** - **Supply Side**: Production and capacity utilization remain unchanged, with narrow fluctuations in device operation and relatively stable supply. The inventory increased slightly [9][34]. - **Demand Side**: The supply of soda ash is adjusted at a high level, downstream demand is average, mainly purchasing at low prices and making appropriate supplements. The overall intention to stock is low, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the production - sales rate remains in a weak balance [9][34]. - **Production Forecast**: It is expected that the float glass production line will be stable this week, while the photovoltaic glass has a reduction expectation of about 2300 tons [11][34].