Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent surge in soda ash futures prices, with a notable increase of 6.75% reaching 1440.00 yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment and potential volatility in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Soda ash futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at 1449.00 yuan, reflecting a strong upward trend in the market [1]. - New Lake Futures views the short-term outlook for soda ash as oscillating with a slight upward bias, citing stable yet slightly strong trends in the spot market [2]. - According to Wenkang Futures, the market sentiment remains high, with stable spot prices and a slight decrease in inventory pressure, although the supply-demand imbalance persists [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent data shows a 2.43 million ton increase in soda ash production week-on-week, with overall production slightly higher than last year [2]. - Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs, with glass manufacturers supplementing low-priced soda ash, while expectations of reduced production in the photovoltaic glass sector may negatively impact demand [2]. - Inventory levels indicate a decrease of 21,400 tons in factory stocks, primarily in light soda ash, while social inventory saw an increase of 8,600 tons week-on-week, highlighting ongoing supply pressures [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall supply situation remains relatively oversupplied, which is expected to exert long-term pressure on prices despite short-term fluctuations due to maintenance disruptions [2]. - The market is advised to monitor macroeconomic policies and raw material costs, particularly coal prices, as these factors could influence market sentiment and pricing strategies [2]. - Wenkang Futures suggests that while short-term price movements may be strong, the long-term outlook remains constrained by fundamental supply-demand issues, recommending a cautious approach to trading strategies [3].

Market Review - The main pure soda futures contract closed at 1225 CNY/ton, with an increase of 1.16% [1] Fundamental Summary - As of July 17, the theoretical profit for ammonia-soda method pure soda in China was -83.20 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.90 CNY/ton compared to the previous period [2] - On July 18, Henan Haohua Junhua's pure soda facility reduced output due to boiler issues, expected to resume operations the next day; Chongqing Heyou Industrial's 400,000 tons/year pure soda facility is operating at reduced capacity; Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year pure soda facility is also running at about 70% capacity [2] - As of July 17, the total inventory of domestic pure soda manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, an increase of 42,200 tons from the previous Thursday, representing a rise of 2.26%. This week, the inventory trend continues to accumulate, reaching a new record high, indicating significant oversupply pressure in the market [2] Institutional Perspectives - Minmetals Futures noted that the operating rate of downstream float glass remains stable, while the operating rate of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, leading to weak demand for pure soda. Although some companies have increased their operating loads, the mid-term supply remains loose, and inventory pressure continues to grow. The net short positions have decreased, but short positions remain concentrated. In the short term, a rebound driven by market sentiment is expected, but the fundamental supply-demand contradiction persists, indicating a weak trend in the medium term [3] - Jianxin Futures stated that with the recovery of summer maintenance facilities, pure soda production has increased significantly, leading to substantial inventory accumulation. On the demand side, major domestic photovoltaic companies are gradually implementing production cuts in response to "anti-involution," resulting in a decrease in daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass, which raises expectations for reduced production in downstream glass. Therefore, the demand outlook is bearish. Additionally, the accumulation of inventory among companies continues, maintaining an overall surplus that suppresses prices. On the macro front, the Central Financial Committee's meeting proposed "orderly exit of backward production capacity," coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts by the central bank, which may enhance market risk appetite. The future market trend is expected to follow a strong oscillation in the short term, while the fundamental supply-demand contradiction remains bearish in the long term [3]

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱供需矛盾 市场弱势持续 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1244-1163 元/吨之间运行， 价格保持低位震荡。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 上涨 43 元/吨，周度跌涨 3.66%，报收 1217 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率环比持平，截止到 2025 年 7 月 10 日，国内纯碱产量 70.90 万吨，环比持平。其中，轻质碱产量 30.88 万吨，环比减少 0.43 万吨。重质碱产量 40.02 万吨，环比 增加 0.43 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 14 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存小幅增长，截止到 2025 年 7 月 10 日，国 内纯碱厂家总库存 186.34 万吨，较上周一增加 1.53 万吨，涨幅 ...