Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market is stable with weakening transactions and negotiable real - order prices. The supply is decreasing due to individual enterprise maintenance and abnormal operation. Although the profits of soda ash enterprises have been repaired, the inventory is expected to remain high in the near future, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Key factors to watch include soda ash start - up changes, new capacity launch progress, and inventory changes [1] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The weekly production of domestic soda ash is 77.54 million tons, a decrease of 4.27 million tons or 5.22% compared to the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 81.87%, a decrease of 4.51 percentage points from last week. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 185.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.19 million tons or 0.10%. The pending orders of soda ash decreased to about 10 days, a decrease of more than 3 days [1] - The profits of soda ash enterprises have been repaired. The domestic soda ash start - up is expected to rise at a high level this week, and the downstream demand is expected to be relatively stable in the near future. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline slightly this week, the start - up of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry has reached a new high, with prominent supply - demand contradictions. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and new capacity launch will put pressure on the market. The fuel price at the cost end is strong. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] 2. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (East China) (yuan/ton) | 21 | 48 | - 27 | - 56.3% | | Enterprise Inventory (million tons) | 185.19 | 185.38 | - 0.19 | - 0.1% | | Weekly Production (million tons) | 77.54 | 81.81 | - 4.27 | - 5.2% | | Dual - ton Profit of Dual - alkali Method (yuan/ton) | 215 | 227.5 | - 12.5 | - 5.5% | | Profit of Ammonia - alkali Method (yuan/ton) | - 26.2 | - 25.3 | - 0.9 | - 3.6% | | Start - up Rate of Downstream Float Glass (%) | 70.12 | 70.55 | - 0.43 | - 0.6% | | Start - up Rate of Downstream Photovoltaic Glass (%) | 64.82 | 66.34 | - 1.52 | - 2.3% | [2] 5. Position Analysis - The total trading volume of soda ash SA on March 27, 2026, was 1,076,733 lots, a decrease of 275,401 lots. The total long - position volume was 784,378 lots, a decrease of 8,972 lots, and the total short - position volume was 928,714 lots, a decrease of 19,770 lots [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soda ash market showed a stable - to - strong trend with narrow price increases. Last week, the soda ash production was 809,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2200 tons or 0.27%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.9317 million tons, a weekly decrease of 15,500 tons or 0.80%. The number of pending orders of soda ash enterprises increased slightly to over 14 days. Currently, the profits of soda ash enterprises have recovered. It is expected that the domestic soda ash production will remain stable at a high level this week, and the downstream demand will be relatively stable in the near term. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline slightly this week, and the operation of photovoltaic glass is expected to be stable this week. As the end of the export rush approaches, demand is gradually weakening, and the inventory in the photovoltaic glass industry has reached new highs. Against the backdrop of loose supply - demand for soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near term. With the pressure from new - capacity releases and the relatively high cost of fuel, the focus should be on changes in soda ash production. It is predicted that the price of soda ash will fluctuate slightly weaker in the near term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: The domestic soda ash market was stable - to - strong, with prices slightly increasing. The production, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and pending orders of soda ash enterprises showed corresponding changes. The production was 809,200 tons, up 0.27% week - on - week; capacity utilization was 87%, up 0.23%; inventory was 1.9317 million tons, down 0.80%; and pending orders increased slightly [1]. - **Outlook**: Soda ash enterprise profits have recovered. This week, domestic soda ash production is expected to be stable at a high level, and downstream demand will be relatively stable. Float glass production may decline slightly, and photovoltaic glass operation will be stable. Demand for photovoltaic glass is weakening, and its inventory is at a high level. Soda ash inventory will remain high, new - capacity releases will put pressure, and fuel costs are high. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [1]. 3.2 Factors to be Concerned About - Changes in soda ash production, new - capacity release progress, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week - **Periodic and Spot Market**: The basis (East China) was - 27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton or - 285.7% [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly production was 809,200 tons, up 0.22 tons or 0.3% week - on - week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87%, up 0.23%. The double - ton profit of the combined - alkali method was 166 yuan/ton, an increase of 168.5 yuan/ton or 6740%. The profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 26.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.45 yuan/ton or 68.3% [1][3]. - **Demand**: The downstream float glass operation rate was 71.05%, up 0.24 percentage points or 0.3% week - on - week. The downstream photovoltaic glass operation rate was 66.34%, up 0.41 percentage points or 0.6% week - on - week [3]. - **Inventory**: The soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.9317 million tons, a weekly decrease of 15,500 tons or 0.80% [1][3]. - **Position Analysis**: The total trading volume of soda ash was 1,851,488 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1,060,509 lots. The total long - position holding was 807,257 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots. The total short - position holding was 941,279 lots, a decrease of 2827 lots [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to geopolitical conflicts, energy prices have risen significantly this week, and the downstream chemical product cost increase expectation is emerging. The main 05 contract of soda ash has fluctuated upward, but the subsequent upward space of soda ash prices may be limited because the industry is facing great inventory removal pressure [4]. - The spread between soda ash 05&09 may tend to weaken in the future because the high inventory of the industry has a more obvious suppression effect on the 05 contract [4]. - The spot market of soda ash is mainly stable recently, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The actual increase in downstream demand is relatively limited [7]. - The basis has narrowed slightly, and the spread between 05&09 has adjusted narrowly. In the medium - term, the strengthening space of the spread may be limited [10]. - The supply of soda ash is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. The industry inventory continues to rise, and the subsequent inventory removal pressure remains high, which will put pressure on the futures price [32]. - The profit of the soda ash industry has adjusted narrowly, and the overall industry is still in a loss stage. In the medium - term expansion cycle, low industry profit may become the norm [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price - Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the main 05 contract of soda ash fluctuated upward this week. As of Thursday, the closing price of the soda ash 2605 contract was 1,225 yuan/ton, and that of the 2609 contract was 1,281 yuan/ton, with the price center shifting slightly upward [4]. Spot Market - The spot market of soda ash is mainly stable recently, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The downstream demand is gradually resuming, and the raw material inventory has decreased, leading to low - price replenishment by downstream enterprises, but the actual increase is relatively limited [7]. - As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,230 - 1,300 yuan/ton, in East China is about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,160 yuan/ton, in North China is about 1,200 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,130 yuan/ton [7]. Basis and Spread - The weak operation of the spot market has dragged the basis to narrow slightly, and the overall fluctuation elasticity is relatively limited. As of Thursday, the basis of the North China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 5 yuan/ton, and that of the Central China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 75 yuan/ton [10]. - As of Thursday, the spread between soda ash 05&09 is - 56 yuan/ton, with a narrow adjustment. In the medium - term, the strengthening space of the spread may be limited [10]. Supply Side - This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate continued to rise compared with last week. As of March 5, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 86.77%, a 1.73% increase from last week [11]. - This week, the soda ash output continued to rise. As of March 5, the soda ash output was about 807,000 tons, a 16,000 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the output of light soda ash was about 374,700 tons, a 6,800 - ton increase, and the output of heavy soda ash was about 432,300 tons, a 9,200 - ton increase [15]. - As of March 5, the domestic soda ash enterprise shipment volume was about 738,200 tons, a 53.26% increase from last week; the overall soda ash shipment rate was about 93.32%, a significant increase from last week [15]. Demand Side - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash rebounded month - on - month [18]. - The daily melting volume of glass has been fluctuating at a low level, providing insufficient support for the consumption of raw material soda ash. The daily output of float glass has remained stable. As of March 5, the domestic float glass daily output was about 148,500 tons, the same as the previous period; the weekly float glass output was about 1,039,700 tons, a 0.17% slight increase [22]. - As of March 5, the domestic photovoltaic glass in - production capacity was about 87,760 tons per day, a 0.9% decrease from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 65.93%, and the enterprise kiln blocking volume remained stable this week [22]. - The float glass inventory has increased significantly month - on - month. As of March 5, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 79.637 million heavy boxes, a 3.629 - million - heavy - box increase from the previous period, a rise of about 4.77%, equivalent to 35.3 days of inventory, 1.5 days more than the previous period [23]. - The inventory pressure of float glass traders in Shahe is prominent, and the factory inventory has also increased significantly. At present, the inventory of Shahe traders is about 8.4 million weight boxes, a 1.68 - million - ton increase from last week, and the factory inventory in Shahe as of March 6 is about 5.356 million weight boxes, a 526,400 - weight - box increase from last week [25]. - The cold - repair loss of float glass decreased slightly this week. As of March 5, the national float glass loss was about 356,350 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period [28]. - Recently, the industrial profit of float glass has improved month - on - month. As of March 5, the weekly average profit of domestic float glass using natural gas as fuel was about - 105.12 yuan/ton, a 37.14 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was about - 36.29 yuan/ton, a 5.5 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was about 26.79 yuan/ton, a 17.14 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period [28]. Inventory Side - The soda ash industry inventory continued to increase month - on - month, and the absolute inventory reached a new high. As of March 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.9472 million tons, including about 1.0273 million tons of light soda ash and about 0.9199 million tons of heavy soda ash [32]. Profit Side - The profit of the soda ash industry has adjusted narrowly, with relatively little change. As of March 5, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was about - 2.5 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process was about - 82.65 yuan/ton, a 7.5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a strong performance in the energy and chemical sectors this week. The price of the main contract of soda ash, 05, has been rising, with the closing price of the 2605 contract at 1,256 yuan/ton and the 2609 contract at 1,322 yuan/ton as of Thursday. The short - term strength of the market is due to external sentiment, but the supply - demand situation of soda ash itself remains weak, with high inventory pressure [5]. - The external uncertainty increases short - term price volatility. Although the external sentiment is high, the weak fundamentals may weaken the subsequent rebound momentum of soda ash, so caution is advised [5]. - In terms of arbitrage, due to the greater suppression of the 05 contract by high industrial inventory, the spread between 05 and 09 contracts of soda ash is likely to run weakly [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - As of Thursday, the closing price of the soda ash 2605 contract was 1,256 yuan/ton, and the 2609 contract was 1,322 yuan/ton, with the price center gradually moving up [5]. Spot Market - The soda ash spot market has strengthened steadily recently, with mainstream prices in various regions increasing slightly. The current spot market has abundant supply, and downstream buyers mainly restock at low prices, with new order transactions slowing down [7]. - As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton, in East China is about 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,200 yuan/ton, in North China is about 1,250 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,130 yuan/ton [7]. Basis and Spread - In terms of basis, the strong rally of the futures market has dragged the basis to gradually weaken. As of Thursday, the basis of the North China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 6 yuan/ton, and the Central China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 106 yuan/ton [10]. - As of Thursday, the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts of soda ash is - 66 yuan/ton, mainly in a weak shock. In the medium term, the spread may continue to run weakly due to high industrial inventory [10]. Supply Side - The domestic soda ash production start - up rate increased compared with last week. As of March 12, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 87%, a 0.23% increase from last week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of the ammonia - soda process was about 90.45%, remaining flat from last week; the capacity utilization rate of the combined - process was about 79.55%, a 3.23% increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89%, a 1.31% decrease [11]. - Soda ash production capacity continues to rise, and subsequent supply will remain at a high level. It is estimated that the short - term start - up rate will remain at a high level [11]. - As of March 12, the soda ash output was about 809,200 tons, a 2,200 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the light soda ash output was about 380,900 tons, a 6,200 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash output was about 428,300 tons, a 4,000 - ton decrease [16]. - As of March 12, the domestic soda ash enterprise shipment volume was about 822,500 tons, a 11.43% increase from last week; the overall soda ash shipment rate was about 101.92%, continuing to increase from last week [16]. Demand Side - The apparent demand for soda ash continued to rise this week [18]. - The daily output of float glass decreased slightly. As of March 12, the daily output of domestic float glass was about 146,900 tons, a 10,800 - ton decrease from the previous period; the weekly output of float glass was about 1,033,300 tons, a 0.62% decrease. The capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 71.09%, a 0.1% decrease from last week [21]. - As of March 12, the in - production capacity of domestic photovoltaic glass was about 87,760 tons per day, remaining flat from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 65.93%, and the number of blocked kilns of enterprises remained stable this week [21]. - The decline in daily melting volume provides weak support for the consumption of raw material soda ash [21]. Inventory Side - The inventory of the soda ash industry continued to increase, with the absolute inventory amount adjusting at a high level. As of March 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.9317 million tons, including about 1.0136 million tons of light soda ash and about 0.9181 million tons of heavy soda ash [33]. - The improvement of downstream demand is relatively limited, and the daily melting volume of glass continues to fluctuate at a low level. Considering the lack of substantial improvement in subsequent demand and the high - level adjustment of device load, it is estimated that the de - stocking pressure of the soda ash industry will still be large, which will weaken part of the rebound momentum [33]. Profitability - The profit of the soda ash industry has improved significantly compared with the previous period. As of March 12, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic combined - process soda ash was about 166 yuan/ton, a 168.5 - yuan increase from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 26.20 yuan/ton, a 56.45 - yuan increase from the previous period [36]. - Recently, geopolitical conflicts have made the energy and chemical sectors strong. Against this background, the price of soda ash has also strengthened. Although the fundamentals are relatively weak, the industry profit has also improved significantly due to the boost of external sentiment. However, the improvement space of industry profit may be limited in the medium - term expansion cycle [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with demand slowing down. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers is rising at a high level, and the price is expected to be weak in the near future, with the 05 contract facing pressure at the 1220 level. Key factors to watch include soda ash production start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and inventory changes [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with pre - holiday active shipments by enterprises and slowing demand. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 77.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88 million tons (1.12% decline). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 83.25%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 158.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.69 million tons (2.39% increase). The backlog of orders from soda ash enterprises increased to over 12 days, an increase of over 2 days. In the future, the start - up of domestic soda ash is expected to be stable at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to be stable. The supply of soda ash is expected to be generally stable, and there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the industry. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level, and new capacity release will put pressure on the market [2]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - The soda ash market in East China was stable last week, with prices slightly adjusted. The futures price fluctuated, and the basis in the East China market was relatively stable [6]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - As of February 5, the domestic soda ash production was 77.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88 million tons (1.12% decline). Among them, the production of light soda ash was 36.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41.40 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71 million tons. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash by the combined soda process in China was - 29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.43%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 88.80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic glass**: As of February 5, the in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 86,960 tons per day, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 8.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 66.12%, the same as the previous week. The inventory of the downstream component market has been significantly reduced, and the component quotation is expected to be stable in the future. - **Float glass**: As of February 5, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.86%, the same as the previous week. The average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points. The production this week is expected to be stable compared with last week [11]. 4. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of February 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 158.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.69 million tons (2.39% increase). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 83.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 74.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3 million tons [13]. 5. Position Analysis - As of February 6, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 835,010, an increase of 7,951, and the short positions were 1,004,525, an increase of 3,468. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market first declined and then rose, with increased low - price transactions and an improved atmosphere. New capacity has significant release pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1300 level. The supply has increased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to be stable to weak [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market first declined and then rose. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,400 tons or 11.67%. The downstream demand is expected to be stable to weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level [1]. 2. Factors to Watch - Soda ash start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [2] 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Week - on - Week Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (East China) | Yuan/ton | 7 | 41 | - 34 | - 82.93 | | Enterprise Inventory | 10,000 tons | 157.27 | 140.83 | 16.44 | 11.67 | | Weekly Output | 10,000 tons | 75.36 | 69.71 | 5.65 | 8.11 | | Dual - ton Profit of Dual - alkali Method | Yuan/ton | - 40 | - 35.5 | - 4.50 | - 12.68 | | Ammonia - alkali Method Profit | Yuan/ton | - 57.85 | - 95.4 | 37.55 | 39.36 | | Downstream Float Glass Start - up Rate | % | 71.96 | 73.03 | - 1.07 | - 1.47 | | Downstream Photovoltaic Glass Start - up Rate | % | 67.04 | 67.2 | - 0.16 | - 0.24 | [3] 4. Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with narrow price adjustments. The futures price fluctuated steadily, and the basis in the East China market showed a slight rebound [5]. 5. Supply Situation Analysis - As of January 8, the domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The theoretical profit of dual - alkali method soda ash was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali method soda ash was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.36% [7]. 6. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of January 8, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,160 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% and a year - on - year increase of 8.64%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Component enterprises plan to raise prices, but actual transactions will continue to be negotiated. - **Float Glass**: As of January 8, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points. The production is expected to decline slightly this week [10]. 7. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of January 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,400 tons or 11.67%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,300 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,100 tons [13]. 8. Position Analysis - As of January 9, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 773,207, an increase of 1,952. The short positions were 963,988, an increase of 22,552. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor price fluctuations. The supply is increasing, while the downstream demand is expected to be weak. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to be weak in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1200 level [1]. - Key factors to watch include changes in soda ash production, new capacity launch progress, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable, with production increasing by 3.15 million tons (4.48%) to 73.54 million tons, and the overall capacity utilization rate rising to 84.35%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.43 million tons (2.88%) to 149.43 million tons. The pending orders increased slightly to nearly 13 days [1]. - Currently, the profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. The domestic soda ash production is expected to remain high and stable this week. The downstream demand is expected to be weak, with the output of float glass expected to decline slightly and that of photovoltaic glass expected to remain stable. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to be weak in the near term [1]. 2. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 2.1 Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the East China soda ash market was stable with minor price adjustments. The futures price trended weakly, and the basis in the East China market showed a stable and upward trend [5]. 2.2 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the domestic soda ash production was 73.54 million tons, an increase of 3.15 million tons (4.48%). Among them, the production of light soda ash was 33.76 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 39.78 million tons, an increase of 1.63 million tons [7]. - The theoretical profit of China's combined soda process (double - ton) was - 49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50.25%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 67.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% [7]. 2.3 Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of December 11, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,680 tons/day, unchanged from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.54%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.82%, unchanged from the previous period. In December, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and there may be unexpected production cuts [11]. - **Float Glass**: As of December 11, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 73.59%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.29%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The output of float glass may slightly decline [11]. 2.4 Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 11, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.43 million tons, a decrease of 4.43 million tons (2.88%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 70.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.40 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 79.05 million tons, a decrease of 2.03 million tons [13]. 2.5 Position Analysis - As of December 12, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 942,182, a decrease of 6,473, and the short positions were 1,160,330, a decrease of 4,400. The net positions were bearish [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation. The dual pressures of demand contraction due to the concentrated cold repair of float glass and the expectation of new capacity launch still exist. However, the growth of the export market and the increased demand for light soda ash in sectors such as lithium carbonate bring marginal improvements. The cost support and the pattern of loose supply - demand will continue to compete, and the price movement space is limited [8][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated within a narrow range between 1161 - 1194 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on November 28, 2025, the main contract rose 7 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.60%, closing at 1177 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of November 27, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 698,100 tons, a decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15% from the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, down 2.60% from the previous week [7][9]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 1.75% from Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons, and heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a decrease of 28,100 tons [7][14]. - **Shipment**: On November 27, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 755,100 tons, a decrease of 3.65% from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 108.16%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points [16]. - **Profit**: As of November 27, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the combined - alkali method was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 38.50 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [19][23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry - **Float Glass Industry**: As of November 27, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 0.57% from the 20th. The weekly output from November 21 - 27 was 1.1039 million tons, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week and 0.86% from the same period last year. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million weight boxes, a decrease of 941,000 weight boxes or 1.49% from the previous week, and an increase of 27.23% from the same period last year [26][30]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the main soda ash futures contract showed a low - level volatile pattern. The spot market quotes remained stable, but the futures market was under pressure due to the marginal weakening of the supply - demand fundamentals [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply decreased slightly this week, but future supply pressure will increase with the expected December launch of the 2.8 - million - ton natural soda project of Yuangxing Energy Phase II. Demand for light soda ash is stable, while heavy soda ash demand is under pressure due to the increased cold repair of float glass production lines [38]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Inventory continued to decline but remained at a high level. The combined - alkali method profit improved slightly, and the ammonia - alkali method profit remained stable at a low level. The industry as a whole is still in the loss range [39]. - **Outlook and Suggestions**: In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation. It is recommended to take a short - term volatile approach, not to short excessively in the context of industry losses, and pay attention to cost support levels. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, consider selling the wide - straddle option strategy [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The overall production load of soda ash manufacturers is low due to maintenance activities, leading to a mixed performance between light and heavy soda ash prices [1] Group 1: Production and Maintenance - Several manufacturers, including Fengcheng Salt Chemical, Xiangyu Salt Chemical, and China Salt Kunshan, are undergoing maintenance, resulting in reduced production capacity [1] - Key soda ash production facilities in Henan, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Huainan are also experiencing maintenance, contributing to the overall low operational load [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Pricing - The demand for light soda ash remains stable, with tight supply in the central and eastern regions, leading to a strong pricing sentiment among manufacturers [1] - Most manufacturers have filled their orders for the month, indicating a robust market for light soda ash [1] - In contrast, the demand for heavy soda ash is weak, with futures prices declining and a noticeable price advantage for futures sources, resulting in increased transaction volumes for heavy soda ash [1] - The transaction price focus for heavy soda ash has shifted downward due to these market dynamics [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with supply contraction providing some support but demand weakness restricting price increases. The core contradiction lies in the game between high inventory and weak demand. Future focus should be on the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will lead to more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, temporarily observing for arbitrage, and considering a bear spread option combination [39]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 740,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,300 tons or 3.93%. Light soda ash production was 325,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,100 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 415,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,200 tons [10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48 percentage points. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67 percentage points, and the combined soda process capacity utilization rate was 75.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.60 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,900 tons or 0.94%. Light soda ash inventory was 759,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,800 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 940,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 16, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 699,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The overall shipment rate was 94.50%, a week - on - week increase of 2.27 percentage points [16]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. The cost side had a narrow upward trend, and the soda ash price was weakly stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process continued to be weak [20]. - The theoretical profit (double - ton) of the combined soda process for soda ash was - 129.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The cost increased, the soda ash price was weakly stable, and the by - product ammonium chloride price declined, resulting in a significant decrease in the double - ton profit of the combined soda process [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Output - As of October 16, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 9th. The weekly output from October 10 - 16, 2025 was 1.1289 million tons, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.62% [27]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes or 2.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The price of动力煤(5500 kcal) increased by 2.55% to 723 yuan/ton; the price of原盐 - 井矿盐 in the East China region increased by 4% to 260 yuan/ton, while in the Northeast region it decreased by 3.7% to 1300 yuan/ton. Light soda ash prices in some regions such as Central China decreased, and heavy soda ash prices in some regions such as Northwest China decreased. The price of float glass decreased by 1.11% to 1246 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium chloride decreased by 5.26% to 360 yuan/ton [37]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week continued the pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply contracted, but demand was weak, and high - inventory pressure was not relieved. Profit conditions deteriorated further, and the core contradiction was the game between high inventory and weak demand [38].