Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with demand slowing down. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers is rising at a high level, and the price is expected to be weak in the near future, with the 05 contract facing pressure at the 1220 level. Key factors to watch include soda ash production start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and inventory changes [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with pre - holiday active shipments by enterprises and slowing demand. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 77.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88 million tons (1.12% decline). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 83.25%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 158.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.69 million tons (2.39% increase). The backlog of orders from soda ash enterprises increased to over 12 days, an increase of over 2 days. In the future, the start - up of domestic soda ash is expected to be stable at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to be stable. The supply of soda ash is expected to be generally stable, and there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the industry. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level, and new capacity release will put pressure on the market [2]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - The soda ash market in East China was stable last week, with prices slightly adjusted. The futures price fluctuated, and the basis in the East China market was relatively stable [6]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - As of February 5, the domestic soda ash production was 77.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88 million tons (1.12% decline). Among them, the production of light soda ash was 36.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41.40 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71 million tons. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash by the combined soda process in China was - 29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.43%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 88.80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic glass**: As of February 5, the in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 86,960 tons per day, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 8.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 66.12%, the same as the previous week. The inventory of the downstream component market has been significantly reduced, and the component quotation is expected to be stable in the future. - **Float glass**: As of February 5, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.86%, the same as the previous week. The average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points. The production this week is expected to be stable compared with last week [11]. 4. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of February 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 158.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.69 million tons (2.39% increase). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 83.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 74.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3 million tons [13]. 5. Position Analysis - As of February 6, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 835,010, an increase of 7,951, and the short positions were 1,004,525, an increase of 3,468. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market first declined and then rose, with increased low - price transactions and an improved atmosphere. New capacity has significant release pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1300 level. The supply has increased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to be stable to weak [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market first declined and then rose. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,400 tons or 11.67%. The downstream demand is expected to be stable to weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level [1]. 2. Factors to Watch - Soda ash start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [2] 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Week - on - Week Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (East China) | Yuan/ton | 7 | 41 | - 34 | - 82.93 | | Enterprise Inventory | 10,000 tons | 157.27 | 140.83 | 16.44 | 11.67 | | Weekly Output | 10,000 tons | 75.36 | 69.71 | 5.65 | 8.11 | | Dual - ton Profit of Dual - alkali Method | Yuan/ton | - 40 | - 35.5 | - 4.50 | - 12.68 | | Ammonia - alkali Method Profit | Yuan/ton | - 57.85 | - 95.4 | 37.55 | 39.36 | | Downstream Float Glass Start - up Rate | % | 71.96 | 73.03 | - 1.07 | - 1.47 | | Downstream Photovoltaic Glass Start - up Rate | % | 67.04 | 67.2 | - 0.16 | - 0.24 | [3] 4. Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with narrow price adjustments. The futures price fluctuated steadily, and the basis in the East China market showed a slight rebound [5]. 5. Supply Situation Analysis - As of January 8, the domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The theoretical profit of dual - alkali method soda ash was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali method soda ash was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.36% [7]. 6. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of January 8, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,160 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% and a year - on - year increase of 8.64%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Component enterprises plan to raise prices, but actual transactions will continue to be negotiated. - **Float Glass**: As of January 8, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points. The production is expected to decline slightly this week [10]. 7. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of January 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,400 tons or 11.67%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,300 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,100 tons [13]. 8. Position Analysis - As of January 9, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 773,207, an increase of 1,952. The short positions were 963,988, an increase of 22,552. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor price fluctuations. The supply is increasing, while the downstream demand is expected to be weak. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to be weak in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1200 level [1]. - Key factors to watch include changes in soda ash production, new capacity launch progress, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable, with production increasing by 3.15 million tons (4.48%) to 73.54 million tons, and the overall capacity utilization rate rising to 84.35%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.43 million tons (2.88%) to 149.43 million tons. The pending orders increased slightly to nearly 13 days [1]. - Currently, the profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. The domestic soda ash production is expected to remain high and stable this week. The downstream demand is expected to be weak, with the output of float glass expected to decline slightly and that of photovoltaic glass expected to remain stable. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to be weak in the near term [1]. 2. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 2.1 Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the East China soda ash market was stable with minor price adjustments. The futures price trended weakly, and the basis in the East China market showed a stable and upward trend [5]. 2.2 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the domestic soda ash production was 73.54 million tons, an increase of 3.15 million tons (4.48%). Among them, the production of light soda ash was 33.76 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 39.78 million tons, an increase of 1.63 million tons [7]. - The theoretical profit of China's combined soda process (double - ton) was - 49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50.25%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 67.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% [7]. 2.3 Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of December 11, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,680 tons/day, unchanged from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.54%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.82%, unchanged from the previous period. In December, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and there may be unexpected production cuts [11]. - **Float Glass**: As of December 11, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 73.59%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.29%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The output of float glass may slightly decline [11]. 2.4 Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 11, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.43 million tons, a decrease of 4.43 million tons (2.88%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 70.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.40 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 79.05 million tons, a decrease of 2.03 million tons [13]. 2.5 Position Analysis - As of December 12, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 942,182, a decrease of 6,473, and the short positions were 1,160,330, a decrease of 4,400. The net positions were bearish [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation. The dual pressures of demand contraction due to the concentrated cold repair of float glass and the expectation of new capacity launch still exist. However, the growth of the export market and the increased demand for light soda ash in sectors such as lithium carbonate bring marginal improvements. The cost support and the pattern of loose supply - demand will continue to compete, and the price movement space is limited [8][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated within a narrow range between 1161 - 1194 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on November 28, 2025, the main contract rose 7 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.60%, closing at 1177 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of November 27, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 698,100 tons, a decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15% from the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, down 2.60% from the previous week [7][9]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 1.75% from Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons, and heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a decrease of 28,100 tons [7][14]. - **Shipment**: On November 27, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 755,100 tons, a decrease of 3.65% from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 108.16%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points [16]. - **Profit**: As of November 27, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the combined - alkali method was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 38.50 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [19][23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry - **Float Glass Industry**: As of November 27, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 0.57% from the 20th. The weekly output from November 21 - 27 was 1.1039 million tons, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week and 0.86% from the same period last year. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million weight boxes, a decrease of 941,000 weight boxes or 1.49% from the previous week, and an increase of 27.23% from the same period last year [26][30]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the main soda ash futures contract showed a low - level volatile pattern. The spot market quotes remained stable, but the futures market was under pressure due to the marginal weakening of the supply - demand fundamentals [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply decreased slightly this week, but future supply pressure will increase with the expected December launch of the 2.8 - million - ton natural soda project of Yuangxing Energy Phase II. Demand for light soda ash is stable, while heavy soda ash demand is under pressure due to the increased cold repair of float glass production lines [38]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Inventory continued to decline but remained at a high level. The combined - alkali method profit improved slightly, and the ammonia - alkali method profit remained stable at a low level. The industry as a whole is still in the loss range [39]. - **Outlook and Suggestions**: In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation. It is recommended to take a short - term volatile approach, not to short excessively in the context of industry losses, and pay attention to cost support levels. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, consider selling the wide - straddle option strategy [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The overall production load of soda ash manufacturers is low due to maintenance activities, leading to a mixed performance between light and heavy soda ash prices [1] Group 1: Production and Maintenance - Several manufacturers, including Fengcheng Salt Chemical, Xiangyu Salt Chemical, and China Salt Kunshan, are undergoing maintenance, resulting in reduced production capacity [1] - Key soda ash production facilities in Henan, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Huainan are also experiencing maintenance, contributing to the overall low operational load [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Pricing - The demand for light soda ash remains stable, with tight supply in the central and eastern regions, leading to a strong pricing sentiment among manufacturers [1] - Most manufacturers have filled their orders for the month, indicating a robust market for light soda ash [1] - In contrast, the demand for heavy soda ash is weak, with futures prices declining and a noticeable price advantage for futures sources, resulting in increased transaction volumes for heavy soda ash [1] - The transaction price focus for heavy soda ash has shifted downward due to these market dynamics [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with supply contraction providing some support but demand weakness restricting price increases. The core contradiction lies in the game between high inventory and weak demand. Future focus should be on the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will lead to more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, temporarily observing for arbitrage, and considering a bear spread option combination [39]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 740,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,300 tons or 3.93%. Light soda ash production was 325,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,100 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 415,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,200 tons [10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48 percentage points. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67 percentage points, and the combined soda process capacity utilization rate was 75.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.60 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,900 tons or 0.94%. Light soda ash inventory was 759,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,800 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 940,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 16, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 699,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The overall shipment rate was 94.50%, a week - on - week increase of 2.27 percentage points [16]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. The cost side had a narrow upward trend, and the soda ash price was weakly stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process continued to be weak [20]. - The theoretical profit (double - ton) of the combined soda process for soda ash was - 129.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The cost increased, the soda ash price was weakly stable, and the by - product ammonium chloride price declined, resulting in a significant decrease in the double - ton profit of the combined soda process [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Output - As of October 16, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 9th. The weekly output from October 10 - 16, 2025 was 1.1289 million tons, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.62% [27]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes or 2.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The price of动力煤(5500 kcal) increased by 2.55% to 723 yuan/ton; the price of原盐 - 井矿盐 in the East China region increased by 4% to 260 yuan/ton, while in the Northeast region it decreased by 3.7% to 1300 yuan/ton. Light soda ash prices in some regions such as Central China decreased, and heavy soda ash prices in some regions such as Northwest China decreased. The price of float glass decreased by 1.11% to 1246 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium chloride decreased by 5.26% to 360 yuan/ton [37]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week continued the pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply contracted, but demand was weak, and high - inventory pressure was not relieved. Profit conditions deteriorated further, and the core contradiction was the game between high inventory and weak demand [38].

Industry Research Summary - Soda Ash Industry Industry Overview - The soda ash industry is characterized by simple processes and limited competition due to resource barriers. The main production methods include ammonia-soda process, dual-soda process, and natural soda process. The natural soda process is favored for its cost advantages, with production costs as low as 500-600 RMB per ton [2][3]. Key Insights - **Natural Soda Process Market Share**: Currently, the natural soda process holds a market share of only 15%, primarily contributed by Boyuan Chemical. This is a significant increase from less than 5% in 2022. Future expansions, such as the Alashan Phase II project, are expected to increase this share [1][3][4]. - **Price Influences**: Soda ash prices are primarily influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than upstream raw material costs. Prices surged during 2020-2021 due to supply shortages but declined in 2022 with new capacity additions. A continued increase in supply pressure is expected to lead to further price declines in 2024-2025 [1][5][11]. - **Downstream Demand**: The main downstream applications for soda ash include flat glass (46%), daily-use glass (20%), and photovoltaic glass (13%). The demand for flat glass is expected to decline due to a weakening real estate market, while photovoltaic glass is projected to be a significant growth area, with a 54% increase in production in 2023 [1][6][7]. Future Projections - **Demand Growth**: Soda ash demand is projected to grow by approximately 2.64% by 2025, with photovoltaic glass contributing the most significant growth rate of 3.9%. The decline in flat glass demand due to real estate market pressures necessitates a focus on photovoltaic and flat glass sectors [7][8]. - **Capacity Expansion**: The industry is expected to see significant capacity expansion, with Boyuan Chemical's Phase I project reaching 5 million tons, leading to a total capacity of 43.5 million tons by the end of 2024. This increase will contribute to rising inventory levels, which may pressure prices [1][9][10]. Inventory and Price Trends - **Current Inventory Levels**: Soda ash inventory is currently high at approximately 1.8 million tons, which poses a significant challenge for price recovery. Future price movements will largely depend on inventory digestion [10][11]. - **Price Forecast**: Prices are expected to stabilize between 1,250 and 1,350 RMB when supply-demand balance is achieved, particularly as higher-cost producers exit the market [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - **Key Players**: Boyuan Chemical remains a leading supplier due to its cost advantages. Other companies like Zhongyan Chemical and Shandong Haohua are also noteworthy as they have secured mining rights for natural soda projects, although their market impact will not be felt until 2027 [13]. Boyuan Chemical faces risks related to its Mengda Mining project, which may affect its stock performance [13].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent surge in soda ash futures prices, with a notable increase of 6.75% reaching 1440.00 yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment and potential volatility in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Soda ash futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at 1449.00 yuan, reflecting a strong upward trend in the market [1]. - New Lake Futures views the short-term outlook for soda ash as oscillating with a slight upward bias, citing stable yet slightly strong trends in the spot market [2]. - According to Wenkang Futures, the market sentiment remains high, with stable spot prices and a slight decrease in inventory pressure, although the supply-demand imbalance persists [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent data shows a 2.43 million ton increase in soda ash production week-on-week, with overall production slightly higher than last year [2]. - Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs, with glass manufacturers supplementing low-priced soda ash, while expectations of reduced production in the photovoltaic glass sector may negatively impact demand [2]. - Inventory levels indicate a decrease of 21,400 tons in factory stocks, primarily in light soda ash, while social inventory saw an increase of 8,600 tons week-on-week, highlighting ongoing supply pressures [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall supply situation remains relatively oversupplied, which is expected to exert long-term pressure on prices despite short-term fluctuations due to maintenance disruptions [2]. - The market is advised to monitor macroeconomic policies and raw material costs, particularly coal prices, as these factors could influence market sentiment and pricing strategies [2]. - Wenkang Futures suggests that while short-term price movements may be strong, the long-term outlook remains constrained by fundamental supply-demand issues, recommending a cautious approach to trading strategies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices decreasing by 10 to 60 yuan per ton across various regions, driven by weak demand and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [2][5]. Price Analysis - As of June 9, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1290-1420 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1350-1470 yuan/ton. In East China, light soda ash prices are 1260-1520 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash is 1340-1420 yuan/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on June 9 is 1272.86, down by 5.71, a decrease of 0.45%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1321.43, down by 8.57, a decrease of 0.64% [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market shows a weak trend, with the main contract SA2509 opening at 1207 yuan/ton and closing at 1202 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 0.91%. The total open interest is 1,513,365 contracts, an increase of 117,554 contracts [5]. - The market is under pressure due to a combination of increased supply from resumed production and new capacity, alongside weak demand from the glass industry, leading to slow inventory turnover [5][6]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a slight recovery in supply as some production facilities resume operations. However, demand remains limited, and companies may resort to price reductions to alleviate inventory pressure [6]. - Overall, without significant positive developments, soda ash prices are likely to continue a weak and volatile trend, with attention needed on production resumption, downstream inventory replenishment, and market sentiment [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views Glass - Short - term: The glass market is expected to have a short - term rebound due to low valuation. The spot market has seen improved recent transactions, but the upcoming rainy season may have a short - term impact. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. Attention should be paid to the real - estate debt repayment peak in June and the suppression of the Hubei warehouse receipts on the market. The upside is limited, but so is the downside. - Long - term: The 09 contract, a peak - season contract, is priced at a large loss, indicating high future volatility. - Bullish factors: Policy support for real - estate acquisition, increased government financial support, enhanced expectations for the completion of pre - sold housing, low spot prices (below the 25% historical percentile), long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. - Bearish factors: The real - estate market is unlikely to have a substantial improvement, and there is still significant inventory pressure in Hubei, and the trading sector depends on the real - estate market's continuous improvement [6]. 纯碱 - Short - term: The market is expected to rebound due to low valuation, but the spot price is difficult to increase, and the futures increase leads to a weakening basis, resulting in greater delivery pressure. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. The core factors are high production and high inventory, with limited long - term shortage expectations. The cost collapse pressure is not fully reflected in the price. The expected production reduction in June is weak, but July or August may be the next maintenance peak. - Potential supporting factors: Low price difference between light and heavy soda, good exports this year, and high inventory concentration, but they need the improvement of the glass market to ferment [7]. Summary by Directory Glass: Supply - side Situation Introduction - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 8010 tons/day [10]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 9210 tons/day [11]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13000 tons/day, with some planned for 2025 and others with undetermined ignition times [13]. - Potential复产 ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7830 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [14]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7850 tons/day, with various planned cold - repair times [16]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is expected to be limited, with the current in - production capacity at around 156,000 tons/day, a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021, and a recent low of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [17][18]. Glass: Price and Profit - Recent transactions have slightly declined, with little overall change. The price in Shahe is around 1140 - 1180 yuan/ton, 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton in Hubei (some manufacturers reduced prices by 40 yuan/ton), and 1280 - 1400 yuan/ton in East China (some manufacturers reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [24][28]. - The futures market has rebounded, the basis is weak, and the month - spread is stable. The spot market is stable, and the month - spread has limited upside due to near - month warehouse receipts [30][33]. - The profit of glass production using petroleum coke as fuel is around - 111 yuan/ton, and that using natural gas and coal as fuel is between - 170 and 91 yuan/ton [34][38]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream Start - up - During the Dragon Boat Festival, weak market transactions led to an increase in inventory across the country. Large manufacturers have better order situations than small ones [41][43]. - The price difference between Central China and Jiangsu and Zhejiang has returned to normal and is widening, which is beneficial for inventory reduction in Hubei [47]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices are falling, recent orders are slightly decreasing, glass manufacturers' shipments are average, and local inventory is increasing. The price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 12.5 yuan/square meter, a 3.85% month - on - month decline, and the 3.2mm coated panels are around 20.5 yuan/square meter, a 2.38% month - on - month decline [54][56]. - The market is gradually weakening, and it may enter a production - reduction cycle. Market transactions have slightly declined, and inventory has slightly increased, with the sample inventory days at about 29.72 days, a 1.94% month - on - month increase [57][63]. 纯碱: Supply and Maintenance - Maintenance of soda ash has almost reached its peak, and there may be less maintenance in June. The current capacity utilization rate is 80.8% (78.6% last week), and the weekly production of heavy soda ash is 382,200 tons [66][68]. - The inventory is around 1.627 million tons, with 79,000 tons of light soda ash and 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash [75]. 纯碱: Price and Profit - Prices in most regions remain unchanged. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton [84][85]. - The basis is weak in the short term, and the spot market fluctuates within a narrow range. The market is influenced by the impact of delivery goods and maintenance. - The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 178 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is 50 yuan/ton [90].