1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of pure benzene is expected to be oscillating bullish in the short - term, with the 03 contract reference range of 5420 - 5600 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus should be on port arrivals and future US dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or buy on dips [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 rose 46 yuan to 5501 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5325 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the spot price in Shandong was 5167 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan). Long positions increased by 505 lots to 17,300 lots, and short positions increased by 500 lots to 20,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: In November, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.93%. There were many planned overhauls in December. In October, the pure benzene import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January, affecting a pure benzene production capacity of 600,000 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Chinese ports was 293,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous inventory of 280,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.6%. From December 15 to December 21, the estimated arrival was about 33,000 tons, and the pick - up was about 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of styrene was 69.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1%; the operating rate of phenol was 75%, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 74.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the operating rate of aniline was 61.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.6%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 59.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. Caprolactam plants started self - disciplined production cuts, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into production [1] - **Import Data**: In November 2025, China's pure benzene monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 5,071,144.069 tons. The monthly import value was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [1] - **Crude Oil**: Due to the Western Christmas holiday, international crude oil futures were closed for one day without settlement prices. The 2602 contract of China INE crude oil futures rose 0.4 to 443 yuan/barrel and rose 1.7 to 444.7 yuan/barrel at night [1] - **Economic Data**: The US November consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, and traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The opening of the arbitrage window between Asia and America may ease the future arrival pressure, and crude oil has rebounded from a low level recently. The pure benzene port has a slight inventory build - up, but the speed has slowed down, and the downstream operating rate on the demand side has declined. The transaction price in Shandong continued to rise over the weekend. The short - term pure benzene price is oscillating bullish [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Wait and see or buy on dips [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from New Lake Futures indicates that in the short to medium term, pure benzene is likely to continue following the trends of related products [1] - The current market atmosphere for pure benzene is described as cautious, with downstream buyers being hesitant about high prices, leading to lower procurement prices and limited trading volume [1] - The current price of pure benzene in the East China spot market has slightly decreased, settling between 5900-5930 yuan/ton, reflecting a weak operational outlook [1] Group 2 - Zhengxin Futures anticipates that the short-term trend for pure benzene will continue to exhibit a fluctuating pattern [2] - The extension of maintenance at Fuhai and the delayed restart until mid-September, along with stable pure benzene production and declining hydrogenated benzene output, contribute to a decrease in total supply [2] - The overall demand is affected by the consumption of styrene and phenol, leading to a limited positive outlook for the fundamentals of pure benzene [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Inventory:华东纯苯进口偏多导致库存略偏高，山东炼厂的纯苯库存整体偏低；今年上半年下游 ABS 库存去化，但 7 - 8 月社会库存又有累积，九月传统旺季来临需求将有所增长；EPS 国内销售下降，但出口增加抵消部分国内市场下滑 [3] - Price Outlook:未来纯苯价格趋势不明朗，定价除自身供需外还受原油、宏观等因素影响；8 月纯苯内外盘倒挂，预期远期去库；纯苯产能释放供应端压力渐增，供需面指引不强，整体预计略偏弱 [3] - Price Spread:近年来石油苯和加氢苯价差逐渐缩小，价差在 30 - 50 元/吨附近较为合理；部分加氢苯质量接近或超越石油苯，但企业更倾向于石油苯，加氢苯会减少催化剂使用寿命 [3] 3. Company Summaries Pure Benzene Trader A - Business:涵盖工程设计、咨询服务、国内外贸易成套工程及投资发展四大板块，主业是招投标及代理，大宗商品贸易以进口代理为主，年营收超百亿，自营品种包括煤炭、天然气、纯苯 [4] - Business Model:纯苯自营采购来自韩国进口、炼厂及贸易商货源，参与港口纸货；销售以中石化合约为主，对接华东、华南公司，月均货量 1 万吨左右；纸货业务配合长约，偶尔单边操作 [5] - Inventory:低库存运转，下游销项合约方面行业库存偏高，中石化自身库存偏高 [6] - Market View:对未来价格趋势不乐观，价格受多种因素影响方向不清晰；对苯乙烯基差无明显季节性规律感受，低库存周期基差弹性放大 [7] - Futures Participation:招投标等板块优势明显，大宗商品业务以代理为主，自营辅助，目前参与期货、期权较少 [8] Pure Benzene Producer B - Business:纯苯产能 24 万吨/年，常减压一次加工能力 300 万吨，后续配套多项深加工装置 [9] - Business Model:纯苯外销为主，30%长约匹配余量现货，现货以公路自提为主，通过企业汽油竞拍平态成交，指导价参考地区及主流资讯公司价格 [10] - Trade Flow and Operation:纯苯下游主要流向苏北、安徽；地炼装置整体降负荷，企业维持高负荷运转，原因包括经营理念和原油配额受限 [11] - Futures Application:未进行期货或纸货操作，但对厂库及参与期货积极，需企业内部统一规划；油化比例 7:3，化工占比高 [12] Pure Benzene Producer C - Business:主营业务包括炼油产品、化工基础原料等业务；工厂有两套 2000 万吨炼油长解压装置，一套重整匹配歧化，一套乙烯装置待开通实现炼化一体化 [13] - Maintenance Cycle:刚刚投产，暂时无检修计划，行业传统 3 年一大检，小检修不影响市场 [14] - Sales:纯苯日外销 800 - 1000 吨，基本为现货，量大后倾向合约；定价以中石化华东为基准，产量波动后一口价调节 [15] - Import and Export:出口占比低，苯乙烯出口几十万吨影响不大；进出口可平衡，以效益和利润为先 [16] - Downstream Demand:苯乙烯需求前景好，占比大且利润好 [17] - Futures Application:苯乙烯期货指导大于现货，纯苯影响不大；后期成立期货部筹备中，涉及品种多；纯苯稳定后可能参与交割库申请 [18] ABS Producer D - Business:三条 ABS 产能投产，设计产能 22.5 万吨，规划二期三期 22.5 万吨待投产，改性投产 5 万吨，共 15 万吨改性 [19] - Production and Sales:苯乙烯全部外采，现货按单谈合约；开工负荷受苯乙烯价格、整体成本及未来趋势等因素影响 [20] - Sales Region:全国销售，下游主要集中华东华南，华北西南也有市场，家电汽车是大头，汽车领域应用多；销售定价一单一谈 [21] - Industry Inventory:2025 年上半年 ABS 产能增长 25%，厂家库存上半年去化，七八月社库累积，九月需求缓慢增长 [22] - Third - Quarter Demand:受国补、出口政策、关税等影响，去年下半年到今年上半年国内家电产量超去年 15 - 20%；汽车产量可观但透支后续需求，今年下半年预计萎缩，大家电 7/8 月进入淡季，需求增速无法支撑上游产量增幅 [23] - Futures Application:苯乙烯期货有利有弊，带来风险但提供价格参考；企业短期无计划参与期货，因参与者水平参差不齐，无专业人才 [24] Pure Benzene Producer E - Business:拥有常减压等多套装置，生产 10 多种产品，纯苯产能 60 万吨，是山东省最大纯苯生产企业 [25] - Production and Sales:根据利润调整开工负荷比例；定价合约部分为年度长约，参考山东双环等价格，零散销售，合约占比 60%以上；销售范围以山东为主，物流车提多，自提为主 [26] - Inventory:低库存，华东进口货多库存偏高，山东炼厂整体偏低 [27] - Third - Quarter Demand:抢出口需求前置有影响，山东与华东、全国有差异，需求不佳且日韩来量多 [28] - Futures:纯苯上市增加链条品种，交割提供新路径，后期替代部分纸货量；有期货团队，套保多，参与品种多，不算原油期货规模 10 万吨/月，原油 8 万吨/月 [28] Styrene Producer E - Business:纯苯日需求量 1200 吨，用于生产苯乙烯，需求稳定；采购渠道包括自产、合约采购、招标采购和厂家直采，无进口采购 [29] - Production and Inventory:苯乙烯产能 50 万吨/年，满负荷运行，生产负荷根据利润调整；原料纯苯库存维持 5 - 6 天，最高 8 - 9 天；苯乙烯库存较低 [30] - Sales:销售区域主要是山东周边，价差大于 220 元/吨时部分产品销往华东；合约销售与现货销售各占 50%左右 [31] - Market View:价格走向不明朗，纯苯产能释放供应端压力渐增，预计略偏弱；进口对当地纯苯价格影响小；对纯苯和苯乙烯价差不过分悲观 [32] - Futures Participation:暂未开展期货业务，以纸货操作为主，关注期货价格；待成为苯乙烯交割库后开展期货业务；认为更多企业会倾向使用期货工具 [33] Phenolic Resin Producer F - Business:总部位于济南章丘，是全球最大酚醛树脂生产工厂，运营两家苯加氢工厂，构建完整供应链体系 [34] - Raw Materials:采购粗苯生产加氢苯为主，粗苯 2/3 来自国内山东、东北、西北等地，1/3 来自俄罗斯进口；山东粗苯定价参考铁雄价格，东北参考三省均价 [37] - Inventory:常规库存维持 1 周生产所需，加工利润好时增加采购，有自有储罐 [38] - Sales:纯苯产品外销，采购苯酚用于酚醛树脂生产；销售策略根据市场价格和库存灵活调整，倾向现货交易，纸货参与量低；期货上市后当地纯苯纸货成交量放大 [39] - Market View:今年纯苯市场低迷，利润空间小，原因是下游终端需求不足；下半年预期悲观，关注短期行情 [40] - Futures Participation:有零星参与苯乙烯投机；因合约较远未参与纯苯期货，但有意向，可根据市场形成期货团队；认为期货与现货价格联动性强，近月期货对现货报价有参考作用；预计纯苯期货上市后加氢苯与石油苯价差缩小 [41]