Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market is expected to gradually ease the shortage situation under the dual effects of explicit capacity expansion and implicit supply elasticity, but raw material constraints, technological bottlenecks, and demand resilience will still maintain a dynamic tight - balance pattern [2][28] - Although capacity expansion may lead to short - term supply relaxation, the new energy, high - end manufacturing, and green materials sectors will continuously optimize the demand structure, and the medium - to - long - term supply and demand will still tend towards dynamic balance [18] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog (1) Upstream Supply - Petroleum benzene in pure benzene has three main raw material sources: ethylene cracking (accounting for about 25%), catalytic reforming (about 55%), and disproportionation and isomerization (about 20%). Supplementary sources include hydrogenated benzene (coal - based route, 14%) and imported benzene (with a dependence of about 15%, mainly from South Korea and Southeast Asia) [4] (2) Mid - stream Trade - Petroleum benzene production has been growing rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 8% - 10% from 2023 - 2024, driven by the concentrated release of private refining and chemical production capacity. In 2024, the total production capacity exceeded 2100 tons [9] - Hydrogenated benzene production has stagnated, with a growth rate close to zero. In 2023, the growth rate was only 0.5%, and in the first half of 2024, there was a negative growth of - 1.2%. The reasons include high raw material coal tar prices, long - term negative processing profits, strict environmental protection policies, and low industry operating rates [9] - The import dependence has increased. In 2023, the import volume of pure benzene reached 3.2 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 15%), and the import dependence rose from 8% to 12%. It is expected to exceed 3.5 million tons in 2024 [10] (3) Downstream Demand - The downstream consumption of pure benzene is driven by five core areas: styrene (41%), caprolactam (18%), phenol/acetone (16%), aniline (13%), and adipic acid (7%) [17] - There is a pressure of supply surplus as the new private refining and chemical production capacity from 2023 - 2025 exceeds 8 million tons per year, pushing the domestic self - sufficiency rate to over 90%. At the same time, there are new demand growth points, such as the new energy vehicle lightweight trend and the expansion of the wind power industry [17] (4) Summary - In 2025, the growth rate of petroleum benzene production capacity will significantly increase, mainly driven by the concentrated commissioning of ethylene cracking units. However, the actual production capacity realization may be affected by the tight supply of naphtha and mixed - feed technology limitations. There is also implicit supply increment through production route optimization [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of pure benzene is mainly affected by factors such as crude oil price, supply and demand, and policies. Crude oil has a long - term guiding effect on the absolute price of pure benzene, while supply - demand mismatch directly impacts industry profits and prices. Policies promote the industry's green and diversified development and also affect the cost and demand of pure benzene [3][11][28] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Historical Price Trend Analysis - From 2012 - 2013, the spot price of East China pure benzene rose from around 10,000 yuan/ton to a maximum of around 14,000 yuan/ton, remaining above 11,000 yuan/ton. High Brent crude oil prices and increased downstream demand were the main reasons, with the pure benzene - naphtha spread exceeding 400 US dollars/ton [1] - In 2014, the sharp decline in pure benzene was due to the drop in crude oil prices. From 2016 to 2018, as oil prices recovered, pure benzene prices fluctuated upwards, then plunged. During this period, China's import dependence on pure benzene increased from less than 10% to over 20%, and annual imports exceeded 12 million tons [3] - Since 2019, affected by the COVID - 19 pandemic, pure benzene prices followed oil prices down. From 2021 to the present, prices have fluctuated between 6,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene - naphtha spread has fluctuated between 200 - 400 US dollars/ton [3] 2. Pure Benzene and Related Product Price Correlation Analysis - The internal and external prices of pure benzene show high consistency and mutual influence. Crude oil has a long - cycle guiding effect on pure benzene prices. Naphtha and toluene have some linkage with pure benzene prices but weak guiding ability. The price correlation between PX and pure benzene is relatively lower than that of upstream raw materials [5] 3. Impact Analysis of Raw Materials and Related Products on Pure Benzene 3.1 Upstream Raw Materials' Impact on Pure Benzene - Crude oil is an important part of the pure benzene price, and the price of crude oil and pure benzene shows a strong positive correlation. Although the correlation has declined in some periods, oil prices generally guide pure benzene prices in the long - term [6] - Naphtha and toluene have high correlations with pure benzene prices but do not pass the Granger causality test. Crude oil is the main long - term price - guiding factor for pure benzene, while naphtha and toluene have limited guiding effects [8] 3.2 Impact of Related Product PX on Pure Benzene - The price correlation between PX and pure benzene is similar to that between crude oil and pure benzene but varies in different periods. In 2021 and 2024, the price of pure benzene was stronger than that of PX due to good supply - demand conditions [9] 4. Supply and Demand Affect Pure Benzene Industry Profits 4.1 Domestic Production - Domestic pure benzene production is related to capacity and operating rate. During periods of concentrated capacity release, supply increases, and industry profits decline. The operating rate is dynamically related to profits, but the by - product nature of pure benzene weakens this relationship, leading to more volatile prices [12][14] 4.2 Import Volume - In 2024, imports accounted for about 20% of the total domestic supply. Generally, an increase in imports corresponds to a price decline, and vice versa. However, the impact of imports on prices varies in different periods due to domestic supply - demand changes [16] 4.3 Domestic Demand - The downstream of pure benzene has five major demand areas, with styrene accounting for nearly 45% of benzene consumption. High - growth demand during downstream concentrated production periods can boost the pure benzene market, but it needs to be analyzed in combination with supply changes [19][21] 4.4 Inventory - There is a significant negative correlation between pure benzene port inventory and price. Extreme high or low inventory levels often correspond to sharp price fluctuations, while medium - level inventory changes may not be the dominant market factor [24] 5. Policies and Macroeconomic Environment 5.1 Industry - Related Policies - The pure benzene industry is moving towards green and diversified development. Governments around the world have strict regulations on the use and management of pure benzene, and policies in China focus on environmental protection, safety, and efficiency, promoting the industry's transformation [26][27] 5.2 Policy and Macroeconomic Impact - Policies increase the cost of pure benzene but also improve production efficiency. Short - term policies like environmental restrictions and safety inspections affect the market, while long - term policies involve technological upgrades and capacity optimization. Macroeconomic factors also impact pure benzene demand, such as export tax rebates and tariff policies [28]