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纸浆数据日报-20250828
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are in a weak and volatile state due to the significant impact of the commodity macro - environment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: SP2601 is 5290, down 1.27% day - on - day and 1.67% week - on - week; SP2511 is 5010, down 1.18% day - on - day and 2.45% week - on - week; SP2509 is 4964, down 1.12% day - on - day and 2.59% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5750, down 0.86% day - on - day and 1.71% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 5150, down 0.58% day - on - day and 0.96% week - on - week; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish is 4200, up 1.20% day - on - day and 1.20% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes (Dollars)**: Chilean Silver Star is 720, down 2.70% compared to the previous period; Japanese - Western - American is 510, up 4.08% compared to the previous period; Chilean Venus is 620, unchanged [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star is 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish is 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Side (Imports)**: In July 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month compared to June. The pulp shipment volume to China was 140 tons, up 3.30% compared to June [1]. - **Supply - Side (Domestic Production)**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 21.3 tons; the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 21 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: On August 21, 2025, pulp port inventory was 213.2 tons; futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.2 tons [1]. - **Demand (Finished Paper Production)**: On August 21, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.80 tons; the production of coated paper was 7.10 tons; the production of tissue paper was 28.20 tons; the production of white cardboard was 31.80 tons [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On August 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 140 with a quantile level of 0.875; the Silver Star basis was 740 with a quantile level of 0.93 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On August 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 134 with a quantile level of 0.403; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 18 with a quantile level of 0.654 [1]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Summary - **Supply - Side News**: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commercial pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will decrease by about 3.5% compared to its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified the August offer, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, the supply of broad - leaf pulp Star reduced by 50%, and the price of natural - colored pulp Venus at $590/ton [1]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: Current paper product demand is basically stable, but the prices of mainstream paper products have not stopped falling, so the demand side is still bearish for pulp prices [1]. - **Inventory - Side Situation**: As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, an increase of 5.1 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% increase month - on - month, showing an inventory - accumulating trend [1].