金 信 期 货 纸 浆 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 纸浆期货止跌:基本面分析与前景展望 今日山东针叶浆现货价格继续维持稳定，港口库存开始小幅去库，但仍高于去年同期水平。 9月伊始，纸品行业迎来一轮调价潮，多家制品公司实施涨价+停机双重策略。旺季预期支撑制品价格。 从供应端来看，阔叶浆供给宽松继续，巴西公布8月出口纸浆同比+35%。 国内需求端基本维持小幅波动，四大纸种中双胶纸和生活用纸产量同比增长，白卡纸和双铜纸产量同比 降低。原纸订单改善有限，拖累纸浆市场走势。 综合而言，旺季预期支撑+企业主动停机以实施涨价，对纸浆价格有所提振，需继续关注港口库存是否有 效去库，维持震荡观点。 2025/09/05 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 技术解盘-纸浆 GOLDTRUST FUT ...

策略:纸浆在商品宏观的影响大幅下挫,纸浆期货偏弱震荡。 世界500强投 - 1-17 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SIA MIL. | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 -- | | | | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号: Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/8/28 | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025年8月27日 | | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年8月27日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | SP2601 | | 5290 | -1.27% | -1. 67% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5750 | -0. 86% | -1.71% | | 期货价格 | SP2511 | 5010 | -1.18% | -2. 45% | 现货价 | ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a monthly pulp report by Guoxin Futures, focusing on the pulp market in May 2025 [2][3] - It analyzes pulp imports, port inventories, external quotes, downstream demand, and provides trading suggestions [3][35] Group 2: Core Views - The pulp futures market bottomed out and rebounded in May 2025. With the unexpected reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the recovery of downstream operating rates, there is a market push - up willingness, but the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills limits the upward space [8] - International pulp mills' new round of quotes lower the price of imported softwood pulp and reduce the supply of hardwood pulp, so the prices of softwood and hardwood pulp may diverge [3][18][35] - The recovery of downstream operating rates may boost industry expectations. Considering the market situation, the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [3][35] Group 3: Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review - In May 2025, pulp futures bottomed out and rebounded. Although the market had a push - up willingness due to tariff reduction and operating rate recovery, the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills led to a slight decline after the price increase [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, China imported 2893000 tons of pulp. From January to April, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. The import volume of softwood and hardwood pulp in April decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the growth rate of pulp imports is expected to slow down [2][13][34] - **External Quotes**: In May 2025, Arauco in Chile lowered the external quotes of softwood pulp and kraft pulp by 30 dollars per ton. There was no quote for hardwood pulp, and its supply will be reduced in May and June, expected to partially recover in July [3][18][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.2164 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98% and a narrowing increase of 10.26 percentage points [19][34] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Except for the decline of operating rates in the double - copper paper and double - offset paper industries, the operating rates of other base papers increased week - on - week, which may boost industry expectations [3][24][35] - **Imported Softwood Pulp Gross Margin**: The short - term gross margin of silver star spot pulp has slightly recovered, but due to weak downstream demand and the decline of new external quotes, the gross margin of imported softwood pulp is expected to remain low [27][29] - **Price Increase of Imported Pulp**: As of May 22, the weekly average prices of imported softwood, hardwood, and kraft pulp showed different trends, with the price increases of softwood and hardwood pulp narrowing [32] 3. Market Outlook - The market situation is similar to the analysis in the fundamental part. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand, and the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [35]