1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market shows a complex situation with supply and demand factors interacting. Supply - side factors include changes in domestic production and imports, while demand - side factors involve downstream production and consumption. The market is also affected by inventory levels, price trends, and cost - profit relationships. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain volatile, and long - term trends are influenced by factors such as future supply projections and terminal demand capabilities [6][8][10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: In the week of 2025/10/24, domestic broadleaf pulp production was 23.50 million tons, up 0.30 million tons from the previous week, and chemimechanical pulp production was 23.60 million tons, up 0.80 million tons. Huanggang Chenming's softwood pulp line planned a one - month shutdown starting on September 29, with an annual capacity of 550,000 tons and an expected impact of 45,000 tons [6][7] - Imports: In September 2025, China's pulp imports were 2.952 billion tons, a 11.3% month - on - month increase and a 10.3% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports for the year were 27.061 billion tons, a 5.6% year - on - year increase. Softwood pulp imports were 691,000 tons, and broadleaf pulp imports were 1.356 billion tons. Overseas shipments of softwood and broadleaf pulp showed different trends, with softwood shipments expected to be stable to slightly lower in October and broadleaf shipments expected to remain sufficient in November [7] 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production of various paper products showed a slight increase in the week of 2025/10/23 compared to the previous week. The total pulp demand was 902,600 tons, a 25,800 - ton increase. New production capacities were being put into operation, but terminal demand was limited, resulting in stable production but decreasing operating rates [8] - Inventory: Port inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation, with Qingdao Port's inventory at 1.39 billion tons, down 12,000 tons from the previous week. Warehouse receipt inventories were in a state of slightly decreasing, suppressing the 11 and 12 contracts. Downstream finished - product inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation [8] 1.3 Price and Spread - Prices: Foreign offers for softwood pulp decreased, while spot prices showed a polarization between softwood and broadleaf, with broadleaf being relatively firm and softwood being relatively weak. Futures prices were in a state of oscillation, with the 01 contract having less pressure due to fewer new warehouse receipts, but the fundamentals remained weak [10] - Spreads: The spread between softwood and broadleaf pulp remained high and stable, and the futures spread widened as some short - positions moved to the far - month 01 contract. The basis was stable [10] 1.4 Cost and Profit - Costs: Domestic pulp costs were stable, and imported pulp costs had different trends. Foreign offers were rising, causing the profit margin of imported pulp to shrink [12] - Profits: Domestic pulp profits were expected to slightly recover, and imported pulp profits were stable. The profits of finished paper products were generally stable [12] 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, it is recommended to observe whether port de - stocking continues and the situation of spot transactions. If the spot is stable, long positions in the far - month 01 contract can be appropriately established, but risk prevention is necessary. If the warehouse receipt problem of the 11 contract is not resolved, short positions in the 11 contract can be considered [15] Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data of pulp from January 2024 to November 2025. Supply includes imports and domestic production, demand includes pulp consumption and other needs, and inventory includes warehouse receipt inventory and port inventory. The data shows the cumulative and year - on - year changes of each item, and the supply - demand gap and inventory - consumption ratio are also calculated [17] Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - No detailed data or analysis provided in the content 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - side - Pulp imports: The report provides data on the imports of various types of pulp, including softwood pulp, broadleaf pulp, chemimechanical pulp, and wood chips, from 2022 to 2025, showing the monthly and cumulative import volumes and year - on - year changes [33][37][41] - Seasonal and cumulative imports: The seasonal and cumulative import data of softwood pulp from different countries are presented, as well as the import data of chemimechanical pulp, unbleached pulp, and wood chips [45][50][62] 3.2.2 Demand - side - Pulp demand: The report shows the demand for pulp in the downstream paper products industry, including the production of various paper products and the total pulp demand [8] - Finished paper products: The production, import, export, and demand of various finished paper products such as toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard are analyzed, and the planned production capacity and production progress of some products are also mentioned [82][96][114] 3.2.3 Inventory - side - Total pulp inventory: The total pulp inventory, including warehouse receipt inventory and port inventory, is presented, showing the weekly data from 2022 to 2025 [142] - Inventory by port: The weekly inventory data of pulp in different ports such as Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Changshu Port, and Gaolan Port from 2022 to 2025 are provided [150] Part 4: Cost and Profit - Pulp import cost and profit: The cost and profit of imported pulp are analyzed, with the cost being affected by foreign offers and the profit margin shrinking [162] - Domestic pulp production cost and profit: The production cost and profit of domestic pulp are analyzed, with the profit expected to slightly recover [165] Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Pulp Foreign Offers - The seasonal price data of various types of pulp such as Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish from 2022 to 2025 are presented [174] 5.2 Price Spread - The seasonal spread data between different types of pulp such as Silver Star - Goldfish, Russian Needle - Goldfish, and Silver Star - Russian Needle from 2022 to 2025 are presented [177] 5.3 Basis - The basis data between Silver Star, Russian Needle, and the main contract from 2022 to 2025 are presented [180] 5.4 SP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread - No detailed data or analysis provided in the content

南华纸浆产业周报 2025年10月19日 ——弱势维持 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国内纸浆市场情绪延续偏弱态势，现货成交清淡，价格承压运行。当前市场呈现出"弱现实"与"强预期"相互博 弈的格局，其运行逻辑受到多重因素的制约。 从基本面来看，供应压力持续是主要特征。港口库存持续处于200万吨以上的高位，仓单消化缓慢，直接制约 了近月价格的表现。同时，外盘市场出现分化态势：针叶浆价格面临下行压力，而阔叶浆供应商则表现出挺 价意愿，形成"针弱阔稳"的局面。 在终端需求方面，则表现出"旺季不旺"的特点。尽管进入传统季节性旺季，但下游成品纸厂依然面临高企的库 存和低迷的生产利润，这使得企业缺乏主动大幅补库的动力，采购行为多以满足刚性生产需求为主。 综合来看，高库存和疲弱的现实需求是抑制浆价上行的最主要因素。预计短期內纸浆市场难有趋势性行情， 将以震荡偏弱运行为主。未来市场的关键转折点在于库存能否有效去化，以及后续节假日带来的季节性需求 能否切实拉动下游补库，从而带动市场情绪的改善。 *近端交易逻辑 仓单持续 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp futures have stopped falling, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. It is recommended to wait and see. The pulp price is supported by the peak - season expectation and enterprises' active shutdown for price hikes, and the view of oscillation is maintained [2][4][7] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Hot - Spot Focus - The spot price of Shandong softwood pulp remained stable today, and the port inventory started to decline slightly but was still higher than the same period last year. At the beginning of September, the paper products industry saw a price - adjustment wave, with many product companies implementing a dual strategy of price hikes and shutdowns. The peak - season expectation supported the product prices [2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the supply of hardwood pulp remained loose, and Brazil's pulp exports in August increased by 35% year - on - year. On the domestic demand side, there were minor fluctuations. Among the four major paper types, the production of offset paper and household paper increased year - on - year, while that of white cardboard and coated paper decreased. The improvement of raw paper orders was limited, dragging down the pulp market [4] Technical Analysis - The pulp price in Shandong area was stable today, the market showed signs of stopping falling, but the upward drive was limited, and the trading sentiment was light. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [7] Main Force Trends - The short - selling main force of pulp reduced positions, which was bullish [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are in a weak and volatile state due to the significant impact of the commodity macro - environment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: SP2601 is 5290, down 1.27% day - on - day and 1.67% week - on - week; SP2511 is 5010, down 1.18% day - on - day and 2.45% week - on - week; SP2509 is 4964, down 1.12% day - on - day and 2.59% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5750, down 0.86% day - on - day and 1.71% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 5150, down 0.58% day - on - day and 0.96% week - on - week; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish is 4200, up 1.20% day - on - day and 1.20% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes (Dollars)**: Chilean Silver Star is 720, down 2.70% compared to the previous period; Japanese - Western - American is 510, up 4.08% compared to the previous period; Chilean Venus is 620, unchanged [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star is 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish is 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Side (Imports)**: In July 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month compared to June. The pulp shipment volume to China was 140 tons, up 3.30% compared to June [1]. - **Supply - Side (Domestic Production)**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 21.3 tons; the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 21 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: On August 21, 2025, pulp port inventory was 213.2 tons; futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.2 tons [1]. - **Demand (Finished Paper Production)**: On August 21, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.80 tons; the production of coated paper was 7.10 tons; the production of tissue paper was 28.20 tons; the production of white cardboard was 31.80 tons [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On August 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 140 with a quantile level of 0.875; the Silver Star basis was 740 with a quantile level of 0.93 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On August 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 134 with a quantile level of 0.403; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 18 with a quantile level of 0.654 [1]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Summary - **Supply - Side News**: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commercial pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will decrease by about 3.5% compared to its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified the August offer, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, the supply of broad - leaf pulp Star reduced by 50%, and the price of natural - colored pulp Venus at $590/ton [1]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: Current paper product demand is basically stable, but the prices of mainstream paper products have not stopped falling, so the demand side is still bearish for pulp prices [1]. - **Inventory - Side Situation**: As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, an increase of 5.1 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% increase month - on - month, showing an inventory - accumulating trend [1].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a monthly pulp report by Guoxin Futures, focusing on the pulp market in May 2025 [2][3] - It analyzes pulp imports, port inventories, external quotes, downstream demand, and provides trading suggestions [3][35] Group 2: Core Views - The pulp futures market bottomed out and rebounded in May 2025. With the unexpected reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the recovery of downstream operating rates, there is a market push - up willingness, but the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills limits the upward space [8] - International pulp mills' new round of quotes lower the price of imported softwood pulp and reduce the supply of hardwood pulp, so the prices of softwood and hardwood pulp may diverge [3][18][35] - The recovery of downstream operating rates may boost industry expectations. Considering the market situation, the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [3][35] Group 3: Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review - In May 2025, pulp futures bottomed out and rebounded. Although the market had a push - up willingness due to tariff reduction and operating rate recovery, the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills led to a slight decline after the price increase [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, China imported 2893000 tons of pulp. From January to April, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. The import volume of softwood and hardwood pulp in April decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the growth rate of pulp imports is expected to slow down [2][13][34] - **External Quotes**: In May 2025, Arauco in Chile lowered the external quotes of softwood pulp and kraft pulp by 30 dollars per ton. There was no quote for hardwood pulp, and its supply will be reduced in May and June, expected to partially recover in July [3][18][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.2164 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98% and a narrowing increase of 10.26 percentage points [19][34] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Except for the decline of operating rates in the double - copper paper and double - offset paper industries, the operating rates of other base papers increased week - on - week, which may boost industry expectations [3][24][35] - **Imported Softwood Pulp Gross Margin**: The short - term gross margin of silver star spot pulp has slightly recovered, but due to weak downstream demand and the decline of new external quotes, the gross margin of imported softwood pulp is expected to remain low [27][29] - **Price Increase of Imported Pulp**: As of May 22, the weekly average prices of imported softwood, hardwood, and kraft pulp showed different trends, with the price increases of softwood and hardwood pulp narrowing [32] 3. Market Outlook - The market situation is similar to the analysis in the fundamental part. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand, and the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [35]