ITGE贸期货 入 期 市 市 线 官 方 网 站 需 有 服 热 M 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | 2025年12月11日 2025年12月11日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | | 日环比 | 周坏比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5508 | 2.76% | 0. 22% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 1.82% | 0.00% | | (元/吨) | SP2512 | 4810 | 1.99% | 0. 80% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5586 | 2.76% | 0. 90% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 上升500 - R-2 - 17 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 入 期 市 市 线 官 方 网 站 需 有 服 热 M 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 2025/12/9 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | 2025年12月6日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月6日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5392 | -1.06% | 3.89% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0.00% | 0. 90% | | (元/吨) | SP2512 | 4682 | -1.84% | -0. 47% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5436 | -0.98% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently in a state where port inventories are continuously accumulating, and with the expectation of increased future arrivals, market sentiment has significantly declined. Hedging positions have gradually entered the market. The fundamentals of pulp are relatively stable, and the spot market transactions are steady. In the short - term, it is difficult for factory demand to show significant improvement. The far - month contracts are facing pressure after reaching the hedging points of Ural and European softwood pulp. As port inventories continue to accumulate and future arrivals are expected to increase, market sentiment has clearly cooled down. Hedging positions have entered the market one after another, the intention to register warrants has increased, and long - position confidence has weakened, leading to a reduction in positions and an exit from the market. It is expected that pulp will enter a range - bound stage [20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - **Domestic Production**: In the week of November 21, 2025, the production of domestic hardwood pulp was 230,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.10 tons compared to the previous week, with a year - to - date decrease of 0.87%. The production of chemimechanical pulp was 237,000 tons, an increase of 0.10 tons from the previous week [11]. - **Imports**: In October 2025, China's total pulp imports were 2.618 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. The cumulative imports for the year were 29.679 billion tons, a year - to - date increase of 4.8%. Affected by the decrease in working days in October and possible vessel - schedule control by some foreign suppliers, domestic imports declined more than expected in October. However, overseas shipments did not show significant changes. Hardwood pulp shipments increased in September, and it is expected that arrivals will increase in November [11]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - **Demand**: Terminal demand remained unchanged, and downstream production was stable. In the week of November 20, 2025, the production of various downstream paper products was relatively stable. It is expected that downstream production will be supported during the year - end small peak season [13]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation due to increased arrivals and rigid - demand procurement from downstream. Warehouse receipt inventories were in a state of destocking. With the relatively low price of the November contract, the intention to buy for delivery increased, and warehouse receipts were gradually cancelled, but the pressure of remaining old warehouse receipts was still large [13]. 1.3 Price and Spread - **Quotations**: Market research shows that after the Chongqing ordering meeting, external quotations are expected to rise, with both softwood and hardwood pulp increasing by $20. - **Spot Prices**: After the price increase, spot transactions weakened, and market sentiment cooled down. With the rapid accumulation of port inventories, some softwood pulp spot prices were gradually reduced, while hardwood pulp prices were relatively firm due to arrival schedules and rigid - demand procurement. - **Futures Prices**: The pulp fundamentals were relatively stable, and spot transactions were steady. The far - month contracts faced pressure after reaching the hedging points of Ural and European softwood pulp. With the continuous accumulation of port inventories and the expectation of increased future arrivals, market sentiment clearly declined, and hedging positions entered the market, leading to a decline in the futures market [15]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The cost of domestic hardwood pulp was relatively stable, while the import cost of pulp was expected to increase in the next round. - **Profit**: The profit of domestic pulp was expected to increase slightly, while the profit of imported pulp was expected to be further squeezed. The profit of paper products was expected to be relatively stable [17]. 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - Given the current situation where there are no obvious contradictions in the market, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach. In a wide - range oscillating pattern, if one holds deliverable spot goods with appropriate costs, they can sell call options or accumulate put options on the 03 contract when prices are high. If one wants to purchase goods at a low price, they can sell put options or accumulate call options when prices are low to achieve cost - reduction and high - point hedging [20]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet The report provides a detailed pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including supply (domestic production, imports), demand (downstream production, pulp consumption), and inventory (port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory) data, as well as their cumulative values and year - on - year changes [23]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Information on global pulp shipments is presented, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - **Demand and Inventory**: Information on European pulp apparent demand and inventory is presented, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: - **Imports**: The report provides data on the import volume of various types of pulp (softwood, hardwood, chemimechanical pulp, etc.) and wood chips (softwood chips, hardwood chips) from 2022 to 2025, including monthly and cumulative data and year - on - year changes [42][45][65]. - **Production Capacity and Planned Investments**: A large number of domestic paper - making enterprises' production capacity expansion and new project investment plans are listed, including the production capacity, location, and expected commissioning time of each project [98]. - **Demand - side**: - **Apparent Demand**: Data on the apparent demand of various types of paper products (toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard) from 2022 to 2025 are provided [137][138][140][142]. - **Export and Import**: Data on the import, export, and cumulative import and export volume of various types of paper products from 2022 to 2025 are provided [101][118][127]. - **Inventory - side**: Data on the total inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port - specific inventory of domestic pulp from 2022 to 2025 are provided [147][150][153]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - **Import Cost and Profit**: Information on the import cost and profit of pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: Information on the production cost and profit of domestic pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **External Quotations**: Information on the external quotations of pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - **Seasonal Price and Spread**: The report provides seasonal price and spread data for various types of pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle, Goldfish, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, including price seasonal charts, spread seasonal charts, and basis charts [177][179][183].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market shows a complex situation with supply and demand factors interacting. Supply - side factors include changes in domestic production and imports, while demand - side factors involve downstream production and consumption. The market is also affected by inventory levels, price trends, and cost - profit relationships. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain volatile, and long - term trends are influenced by factors such as future supply projections and terminal demand capabilities [6][8][10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: In the week of 2025/10/24, domestic broadleaf pulp production was 23.50 million tons, up 0.30 million tons from the previous week, and chemimechanical pulp production was 23.60 million tons, up 0.80 million tons. Huanggang Chenming's softwood pulp line planned a one - month shutdown starting on September 29, with an annual capacity of 550,000 tons and an expected impact of 45,000 tons [6][7] - Imports: In September 2025, China's pulp imports were 2.952 billion tons, a 11.3% month - on - month increase and a 10.3% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports for the year were 27.061 billion tons, a 5.6% year - on - year increase. Softwood pulp imports were 691,000 tons, and broadleaf pulp imports were 1.356 billion tons. Overseas shipments of softwood and broadleaf pulp showed different trends, with softwood shipments expected to be stable to slightly lower in October and broadleaf shipments expected to remain sufficient in November [7] 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production of various paper products showed a slight increase in the week of 2025/10/23 compared to the previous week. The total pulp demand was 902,600 tons, a 25,800 - ton increase. New production capacities were being put into operation, but terminal demand was limited, resulting in stable production but decreasing operating rates [8] - Inventory: Port inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation, with Qingdao Port's inventory at 1.39 billion tons, down 12,000 tons from the previous week. Warehouse receipt inventories were in a state of slightly decreasing, suppressing the 11 and 12 contracts. Downstream finished - product inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation [8] 1.3 Price and Spread - Prices: Foreign offers for softwood pulp decreased, while spot prices showed a polarization between softwood and broadleaf, with broadleaf being relatively firm and softwood being relatively weak. Futures prices were in a state of oscillation, with the 01 contract having less pressure due to fewer new warehouse receipts, but the fundamentals remained weak [10] - Spreads: The spread between softwood and broadleaf pulp remained high and stable, and the futures spread widened as some short - positions moved to the far - month 01 contract. The basis was stable [10] 1.4 Cost and Profit - Costs: Domestic pulp costs were stable, and imported pulp costs had different trends. Foreign offers were rising, causing the profit margin of imported pulp to shrink [12] - Profits: Domestic pulp profits were expected to slightly recover, and imported pulp profits were stable. The profits of finished paper products were generally stable [12] 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, it is recommended to observe whether port de - stocking continues and the situation of spot transactions. If the spot is stable, long positions in the far - month 01 contract can be appropriately established, but risk prevention is necessary. If the warehouse receipt problem of the 11 contract is not resolved, short positions in the 11 contract can be considered [15] Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data of pulp from January 2024 to November 2025. Supply includes imports and domestic production, demand includes pulp consumption and other needs, and inventory includes warehouse receipt inventory and port inventory. The data shows the cumulative and year - on - year changes of each item, and the supply - demand gap and inventory - consumption ratio are also calculated [17] Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - No detailed data or analysis provided in the content 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - side - Pulp imports: The report provides data on the imports of various types of pulp, including softwood pulp, broadleaf pulp, chemimechanical pulp, and wood chips, from 2022 to 2025, showing the monthly and cumulative import volumes and year - on - year changes [33][37][41] - Seasonal and cumulative imports: The seasonal and cumulative import data of softwood pulp from different countries are presented, as well as the import data of chemimechanical pulp, unbleached pulp, and wood chips [45][50][62] 3.2.2 Demand - side - Pulp demand: The report shows the demand for pulp in the downstream paper products industry, including the production of various paper products and the total pulp demand [8] - Finished paper products: The production, import, export, and demand of various finished paper products such as toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard are analyzed, and the planned production capacity and production progress of some products are also mentioned [82][96][114] 3.2.3 Inventory - side - Total pulp inventory: The total pulp inventory, including warehouse receipt inventory and port inventory, is presented, showing the weekly data from 2022 to 2025 [142] - Inventory by port: The weekly inventory data of pulp in different ports such as Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Changshu Port, and Gaolan Port from 2022 to 2025 are provided [150] Part 4: Cost and Profit - Pulp import cost and profit: The cost and profit of imported pulp are analyzed, with the cost being affected by foreign offers and the profit margin shrinking [162] - Domestic pulp production cost and profit: The production cost and profit of domestic pulp are analyzed, with the profit expected to slightly recover [165] Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Pulp Foreign Offers - The seasonal price data of various types of pulp such as Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish from 2022 to 2025 are presented [174] 5.2 Price Spread - The seasonal spread data between different types of pulp such as Silver Star - Goldfish, Russian Needle - Goldfish, and Silver Star - Russian Needle from 2022 to 2025 are presented [177] 5.3 Basis - The basis data between Silver Star, Russian Needle, and the main contract from 2022 to 2025 are presented [180] 5.4 SP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread - No detailed data or analysis provided in the content

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Nanhua Pulp Industry Weekly Report" dated October 19, 2025, with an investment rating of "Weak Maintenance" [1] Core Views - The domestic pulp market sentiment remains weak, with light spot transactions and prices under pressure. The market is in a pattern of "weak reality" versus "strong expectation", constrained by multiple factors [3] - High inventory and weak real - demand are the main factors suppressing pulp price increases. In the short term, the pulp market is expected to be range - bound and weak. The key turning points are effective inventory reduction and seasonal demand driving downstream restocking [3] Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations Core Contradiction - Fundamentally, supply pressure persists, with port inventories above 2 million tons and slow warehouse receipt digestion. The external market shows a "weak softwood, stable hardwood" situation [3] - Terminal demand is "not booming in the peak season". Downstream paper mills face high inventories and low production profits, lacking the motivation to restock significantly [3] - Near - term trading: Warehouse receipts suppress prices, and there is poor willingness to take delivery of Russian softwood pulp. High - level inventory makes de - stocking difficult [4] - Long - term trading: The impact of warehouse receipts will decline to some extent, but there will still be available warehouse receipts in 2026. Fed rate - cut expectations are strengthening, but US trade policies may bring supply pressure [4] Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Oscillating downward. Consider selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [6] - Basis strategy: The near - month basis of Russian softwood pulp remains high. Selling the basis requires improved spot liquidity of Russian softwood pulp [7] - Spread strategy: Due to the continuous impact of warehouse receipts and high port inventories, consider a reverse spread for the 01 - 03 contracts [7] Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory management: For enterprises with high softwood pulp inventories worried about price drops, short pulp futures at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [8] - Procurement management: For paper - making enterprises with low inventories, buy pulp futures at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [8] This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events This Week's Important Information - There is no positive information. Negative factors include high - level port inventory de - stocking difficulties, warehouse receipt pressure, weak demand, and poor downstream profitability [9][12] - Spot transaction information shows the latest prices, price changes, and price ranges of various pulp and paper products [10][11][13] Disk Interpretation Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, the sp2511 contract oscillated at a low level, and the sp2601 contract had limited rebound, showing a bearish technical trend [16] Basis and Spread Structure - The spread structure maintains a C - structure. Warehouse receipts of Brazilian softwood pulp continue to suppress prices, with about 15 - 170,000 tons of warehouse receipts in the market. Consider shorting the 01 - 03 spread [19] Supply - Demand and Inventory DemandDemand and Inventory Inventory - On October 17, inventory was 2.074 million tons (- 0.3). High - level inventory is difficult to reduce. Although domestic softwood pulp imports in August were at a five - year low, the increase in global pulp shipments to China in August will pressure future de - stocking [21] - Downstream finished paper inventories are accumulating, and low profit margins restrict raw material restocking [21] Supply - Domestic production and import volume data of various types of pulp are presented, showing the production and import trends of pulp in different periods [45][46][48] Demand - Data on finished paper capacity utilization, production, export, and consumption are provided, reflecting the demand - side situation of the pulp industry [55][61][64][69] Spot - Spot prices of pulp, including domestic and international prices, and prices of finished paper products such as white cardboard, offset paper, and copperplate paper are presented [73][75][79]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp futures have stopped falling, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. It is recommended to wait and see. The pulp price is supported by the peak - season expectation and enterprises' active shutdown for price hikes, and the view of oscillation is maintained [2][4][7] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Hot - Spot Focus - The spot price of Shandong softwood pulp remained stable today, and the port inventory started to decline slightly but was still higher than the same period last year. At the beginning of September, the paper products industry saw a price - adjustment wave, with many product companies implementing a dual strategy of price hikes and shutdowns. The peak - season expectation supported the product prices [2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the supply of hardwood pulp remained loose, and Brazil's pulp exports in August increased by 35% year - on - year. On the domestic demand side, there were minor fluctuations. Among the four major paper types, the production of offset paper and household paper increased year - on - year, while that of white cardboard and coated paper decreased. The improvement of raw paper orders was limited, dragging down the pulp market [4] Technical Analysis - The pulp price in Shandong area was stable today, the market showed signs of stopping falling, but the upward drive was limited, and the trading sentiment was light. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [7] Main Force Trends - The short - selling main force of pulp reduced positions, which was bullish [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are in a weak and volatile state due to the significant impact of the commodity macro - environment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: SP2601 is 5290, down 1.27% day - on - day and 1.67% week - on - week; SP2511 is 5010, down 1.18% day - on - day and 2.45% week - on - week; SP2509 is 4964, down 1.12% day - on - day and 2.59% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5750, down 0.86% day - on - day and 1.71% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 5150, down 0.58% day - on - day and 0.96% week - on - week; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish is 4200, up 1.20% day - on - day and 1.20% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes (Dollars)**: Chilean Silver Star is 720, down 2.70% compared to the previous period; Japanese - Western - American is 510, up 4.08% compared to the previous period; Chilean Venus is 620, unchanged [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star is 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish is 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Side (Imports)**: In July 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month compared to June. The pulp shipment volume to China was 140 tons, up 3.30% compared to June [1]. - **Supply - Side (Domestic Production)**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 21.3 tons; the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 21 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: On August 21, 2025, pulp port inventory was 213.2 tons; futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.2 tons [1]. - **Demand (Finished Paper Production)**: On August 21, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.80 tons; the production of coated paper was 7.10 tons; the production of tissue paper was 28.20 tons; the production of white cardboard was 31.80 tons [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On August 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 140 with a quantile level of 0.875; the Silver Star basis was 740 with a quantile level of 0.93 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On August 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 134 with a quantile level of 0.403; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 18 with a quantile level of 0.654 [1]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Summary - **Supply - Side News**: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commercial pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will decrease by about 3.5% compared to its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified the August offer, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, the supply of broad - leaf pulp Star reduced by 50%, and the price of natural - colored pulp Venus at $590/ton [1]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: Current paper product demand is basically stable, but the prices of mainstream paper products have not stopped falling, so the demand side is still bearish for pulp prices [1]. - **Inventory - Side Situation**: As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, an increase of 5.1 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% increase month - on - month, showing an inventory - accumulating trend [1].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a monthly pulp report by Guoxin Futures, focusing on the pulp market in May 2025 [2][3] - It analyzes pulp imports, port inventories, external quotes, downstream demand, and provides trading suggestions [3][35] Group 2: Core Views - The pulp futures market bottomed out and rebounded in May 2025. With the unexpected reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the recovery of downstream operating rates, there is a market push - up willingness, but the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills limits the upward space [8] - International pulp mills' new round of quotes lower the price of imported softwood pulp and reduce the supply of hardwood pulp, so the prices of softwood and hardwood pulp may diverge [3][18][35] - The recovery of downstream operating rates may boost industry expectations. Considering the market situation, the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [3][35] Group 3: Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review - In May 2025, pulp futures bottomed out and rebounded. Although the market had a push - up willingness due to tariff reduction and operating rate recovery, the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills led to a slight decline after the price increase [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, China imported 2893000 tons of pulp. From January to April, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. The import volume of softwood and hardwood pulp in April decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the growth rate of pulp imports is expected to slow down [2][13][34] - **External Quotes**: In May 2025, Arauco in Chile lowered the external quotes of softwood pulp and kraft pulp by 30 dollars per ton. There was no quote for hardwood pulp, and its supply will be reduced in May and June, expected to partially recover in July [3][18][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.2164 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98% and a narrowing increase of 10.26 percentage points [19][34] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Except for the decline of operating rates in the double - copper paper and double - offset paper industries, the operating rates of other base papers increased week - on - week, which may boost industry expectations [3][24][35] - **Imported Softwood Pulp Gross Margin**: The short - term gross margin of silver star spot pulp has slightly recovered, but due to weak downstream demand and the decline of new external quotes, the gross margin of imported softwood pulp is expected to remain low [27][29] - **Price Increase of Imported Pulp**: As of May 22, the weekly average prices of imported softwood, hardwood, and kraft pulp showed different trends, with the price increases of softwood and hardwood pulp narrowing [32] 3. Market Outlook - The market situation is similar to the analysis in the fundamental part. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand, and the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [35]