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纸浆数据日报-20260306
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-06 05:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,200 - 5,400 yuan/ton. The lower limit is supported by the shutdown of a Finnish softwood pulp mill, while the upper limit is restricted by weak domestic demand and high inventory [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures and Spot Prices - On March 5, 2026, the futures prices of SP2701, SP2609, and SP2605 were 5,480 yuan/ton, 5,306 yuan/ton, and 5,250 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0.15%, 0.04%, and 0.08%, and weekly changes of -0.90%, -1.08%, and -1.17% [5] - The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,100 yuan/ton, and 4,600 yuan/ton respectively, with daily and weekly changes of 0.95%, 0.99%, and 0.00% [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Chilean Star, and Chilean Venus were 710 dollars/ton, 600 dollars/ton, and 620 dollars/ton respectively, with no monthly change. The import costs were 5,802 yuan/ton, 4,911 yuan/ton, and 5,073 yuan/ton respectively, also with no monthly change [5] Supply - side Data - In December 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 77.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.31%, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.40% [5] - The pulp shipments to China in January 2026 were 170,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.80% [5] - The domestic production of hardwood pulp on March 5, 2026 was 24.3 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.8 million tons [5] Inventory Data - As of March 5, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 240.8 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, showing a cumulative inventory trend for two consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 15.3 million tons [5] Demand - side Data - The production of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and kraft linerboard on March 5, 2026 was 19.80 million tons, 8.30 million tons, 28.76 million tons, and 36.10 million tons respectively. The pulp demand has been stable recently, with the price of finished paper stable and the production increasing this week [5]
纸浆数据日报-20260305
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 05:18
1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - Overseas softwood pulp mills have a serious inventory backlog, there is significant pressure on external market quotations, there are no obvious positive factors in domestic demand, and it is expected to fluctuate in a bearish direction [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 4, 2026, SP2701 was 5472 yuan/ton, up 0.70% day-on-day and down 1.23% week-on-week; SP2609 was 5304 yuan/ton, up 0.53% day-on-day and down 1.78% week-on-week; SP2605 was 5246 yuan/ton, up 0.50% day-on-day and down 1.91% week-on-week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On March 4, 2026, softwood pulp Silver Star was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged day-on-day and down 1.87% week-on-week; Russian softwood pulp was 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged day-on-day and down 1.94% week-on-week; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week [5] - **External Market Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, Chilean Star was 600 dollars/ton, and Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, all unchanged month-on-month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, Chilean Star was 4911 yuan/ton, and Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, all unchanged month-on-month [5] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, softwood pulp imports were 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month-on-month; hardwood pulp imports were 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month-on-month [5] - **Domestic Production**: From January 8 to February 26, 2026, the domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp was relatively stable [5] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of February 26, 2026, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 240.1 tons, up 20.6 tons from the previous period and 9.4% month-on-month [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of February 26, 2026, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 15.2 tons [5] Demand - **Finished Paper Production**: From January 8 to February 26, 2026, the production of double-coated paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed some fluctuations, with a general downward trend in the week [5]
纸浆数据日报-20260304
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 03:50
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - The overseas coniferous pulp mills have a serious inventory build - up, the external market quotation is under great pressure, and there is no obvious positive news for domestic demand. It is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 3, 2026, SP2601 was 5434 yuan/ton, down 0.62% day - on - day and 2.16% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5276 yuan/ton, down 0.75% day - on - day and 2.22% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5220 yuan/ton, down 0.61% day - on - day and 2.25% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On March 3, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.87% week - on - week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.94% week - on - week; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [5] - **External Quotes**: The external quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; the quote of Chilean Star was 600 dollars/ton, up 1.69% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import cost of Chilean Star was 4911 yuan/ton, up 1.68% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] 2. Fundamental Data - **Pulp Shipment Volume to China**: In January 2026, the pulp shipment volume to China was 170 thousand tons, down 19.80% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Production**: In February 26, 2026, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 25.2 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp was 23.8 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of February 26, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 240.1 tons, up 9.4% month - on - month; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 15.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: In terms of finished paper production, on February 26, 2026, the production of offset paper was 17.5 tons, copperplate paper was 7.4 tons, tissue paper was 23.98 tons, and white cardboard was 36.1 tons [5] 3. Supply, Demand and Inventory Summary - **Supply**: The February offer of coniferous pulp from Chile's Arauco Company was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; the offer of broad - leaf pulp Star was 600 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the offer of natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Demand**: The demand side of pulp has been stable recently, the price of finished paper is stable, and the production has decreased this week [5] - **Inventory**: As of February 26, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports has shown a trend of accumulation [5]
纸浆数据日报-20260302
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 06:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Overseas softwood pulp mills have a serious inventory build - up, there is significant pressure on the FOB quotations, and there is no obvious positive news for domestic demand. It is expected to operate in a volatile and bearish manner [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On February 27, 2026, SP2601 was 5470 yuan/ton, down 1.08% day - on - day and up 0.40% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5312 yuan/ton, down 0.97% day - on - day and up 0.49% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5246 yuan/ton, down 1.24% day - on - day and up 0.15% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On February 27, 2026, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.99% week - on - week; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.44% week - on - week [5] - **FOB Quotations**: The FOB quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB quotation of Chilean Star was 600 dollars/ton, up 1.69% month - on - month; the FOB quotation of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import cost of Chilean Star was 4911 yuan/ton, up 1.68% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In December 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in December 2025 was 212 thousand tons, up 19.10% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp in February 26, 2026 was 25.2 tons, and the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 23.8 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of February 26, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 240.1 tons, up 9.4% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 15.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of offset paper was 17.50 tons, coated paper was 7.40 tons, tissue paper was 23.98 tons, and white cardboard was 36.10 tons. The pulp demand was stable recently, the price of finished paper was stable, and the production increased slightly this week [5] 3.3 Summary - The main port inventory showed a trend of inventory build - up [5]
纸浆:震荡运行20260227
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-27 02:19
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the imported pulp market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising, with improved sentiment. The spot含税 average price of mainstream brands of coniferous pulp was 5268 yuan/ton, up 0.8% from the previous period; the spot含税 average price of broadleaf pulp was 4577 yuan/ton, up 0.4% from the previous period; the spot含税 average price of natural color pulp was 4900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; and the spot含税 average price of chemimechanical pulp was 3800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [4] - In terms of price, during the Spring Festival holiday, the market trading was basically stagnant, and the pulp price remained stable. After the holiday, the market gradually started, and the pulp price rose. Coniferous pulp mainly followed the positive upward exploration of the futures market, while broadleaf pulp was supported by the cost of the new round of price increase in the external market, and the downstream tissue paper enterprises issued price increase letters, which boosted market confidence to a certain extent. However, the downstream base paper market is still in the initial stage of post - holiday recovery, and paper mills are mostly waiting and watching for raw material procurement, with actual transactions not yet increasing. Although the port inventory is in the stage of post - holiday high - level inventory accumulation, the year - on - year inventory accumulation is less than last year, which supports the mentality of industry players [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5312 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 5272 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 178329 lots, an increase of 2485 lots; the position of the 05 contract was 243577 lots, an increase of 3775 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 152537 tons, a decrease of 3084 tons; the net position of the top 20 members was - 29329 lots, a decrease of 4597 lots [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Silver Star - futures main contract was 38 yuan, an increase of 36 yuan; the basis of Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) was - 712 yuan, an increase of 36 yuan. The month - spread of SP03 - SP05 was - 50 yuan (domestic price) and - 6 dollars (international price) [3] - **Spot Market**: The prices of coniferous pulp brands such as Northwood and Cariboo were 5550 yuan/ton, the price of Moon was 5250 yuan/ton, and the price of Silver Star was 2350 yuan/ton. The price of broadleaf pulp brands such as Goldfish and Star was 4600 yuan/ton, the price of Gintha was 4580 yuan/ton, and the price of Buk阔叶 was 4500 yuan/ton. The price of chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe) was 3800 yuan/ton, and the price of natural color pulp (Venus) was 4900 yuan/ton [3] 2. Industry News - This week, the imported pulp market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising, with improved sentiment. The spot含税 average price of mainstream brands of coniferous pulp, broadleaf pulp, natural color pulp, and chemimechanical pulp had different changes compared with the previous period [4] 3. Futures Research - During the Spring Festival holiday, the pulp price remained stable, and after the holiday, it rose. Different pulp varieties had different driving factors, but the downstream base paper market was in the initial stage of post - holiday recovery, and actual transactions had not increased. The port inventory was in the post - holiday high - level inventory accumulation stage, but the year - on - year inventory accumulation was less than last year [6]
纸浆数据日报-20260224
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-02-24 03:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The pulp market shows a situation where the supply side has stable offers from Chilean companies, the demand side is stable with a slight increase in finished - paper production, and the inventory side is in a continuous accumulation trend. Coniferous pulp is expected to oscillate at a low level due to lack of positive factors but with cost support from pulp mills [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On February 13, 2026, SP2601 was 5446 yuan/ton with a daily -环比 of - 0.04% and a weekly -环比 of - 0.07%; SP2609 was 5304 yuan/ton with a daily -环比 of 0.34% and a weekly -环比 of 0.49%; SP2605 was 5260 yuan/ton with a daily -环比 of 0.42% and a weekly -环比 of 0.50% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On February 13, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5250 yuan/ton, Russian coniferous pulp was 5050 yuan/ton, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4580 yuan/ton, all with 0.00% daily and weekly changes [5] - **External Quotes**: In February 2026, the external quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton (a 1.43% month -环比 increase), Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton (a 3.51% month -环比 increase), and Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton (0.00% month -环比) [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton (a 1.42% month -环比 increase), Chilean Star was 4830 yuan/ton (a 3.47% month -环比 increase), and Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton (0.00% month -环比) [5] Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons (a 7.31% month -环比 increase compared to November), and that of broad - leaf pulp was 135.2 tons (a - 23.40% month -环比 decrease compared to November) [5] - **Domestic Production**: From January 8, 2025, to February 12, 2026, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp fluctuated between 24 - 25.2 tons, and that of chemi - mechanical pulp fluctuated between 23.7 - 23.9 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of February 12, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 219.5 tons (a 0.6% increase compared to the previous period), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 15.1 tons [5] - **Demand**: In the recent period, pulp demand was stable. The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard had some fluctuations, with a slight increase in production this week [5] Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco's February offer for coniferous pulp was 710 dollars/ton (unchanged), broad - leaf pulp Star was 600 dollars/ton (a 10 - dollar increase), and natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton (unchanged) [5] - **Demand**: Pulp demand was stable recently, finished - paper prices were stable, and production increased slightly this week [5] - **Inventory**: As of February 12, 2026, the mainstream port sample inventory in China was 219.5 tons, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend for six weeks [5] Strategy - Coniferous pulp lacks positive factors but has cost support from pulp mills, and is expected to oscillate at a low level [5]
纸浆数据日报-20251229
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 07:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of the new round of price increase letters is good, domestic inventory has been reduced, and the market should be viewed with a bullish bias in a volatile manner [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Paper Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On December 26, 2025, SP2601 was at 5564 yuan/ton with a 0.58% daily and 2.47% weekly increase; SP2609 was at 5662 yuan/ton with a 0.21% daily and 2.54% weekly increase; SP2605 was at 5630 yuan/ton with a 0.46% daily and 2.25% weekly increase [6] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp silver star was at 5600 yuan/ton, coniferous pulp Russian needle was at 5400 yuan/ton, and broadleaf pulp Golden was at 4670 yuan/ton, with no daily change for silver star and Russian needle, and a 0.43% weekly increase for Golden [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: Chilean silver star was at 700 dollars/ton with a 2.94% monthly increase, Japanese Meigeng was at 580 dollars/ton with a 3.57% monthly increase, and Chilean Venus was at 620 dollars/ton with no change [6] - **Import Costs**: Chilean silver star was at 5721 yuan/ton with a 2.91% monthly increase, Brazilian Goldfish was at 4749 yuan/ton with a 3.53% monthly increase, and Chilean Venus was at 5073 yuan/ton with no change [6] Paper Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons and broadleaf pulp was 176.5 tons, with monthly increases of 4.92% and 33.92% respectively. Suzano announced a global price increase for broadleaf pulp in January 2026, with a 20 - dollar increase in Asia and a 120 - dollar increase in Europe and North America for Goldfish broadleaf pulp [6] - **Inventory**: As of December 25, 2025, the sample inventory of China's major pulp ports was 190.6 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous period, a 4.4% decrease. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [6] - **Demand**: The demand side remains weak. Among mainstream wood - pulp papers, the price of cultural paper continues to decline, while the prices of tissue paper and white cardboard have slightly increased [6]
纸浆数据日报-20251212
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 03:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of wood chips in the international market has been tight recently, and prices have risen rapidly. APRIL and Bracel under the Golden Eagle Group announced a $20/ton increase in the price of bleached hardwood kraft pulp (BHK) for orders received in December in Asia. On the demand side, pulp paper companies have recently issued price increase notices, with only white cardboard showing good implementation. Double-offset paper has issued another round of price increase notices, and their implementation needs attention. As of December 4, 2025, the inventory in major Chinese pulp ports decreased by 710,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.3% decline, showing a continuous slight de-stocking trend for two consecutive weeks. The pulp futures increased significantly with heavy positions during the night session, but there is no corresponding news from the industrial side, so the short - term risk is high. It is recommended to avoid unilateral trading and suggest a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (Yuan/ton)**: On December 11, 2025, SP2601 was 5508, up 2.76% day - on - day and 0.22% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4810, up 1.99% day - on - day and 0.80% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5586, up 2.76% day - on - day and 0.90% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton)**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600, up 1.82% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5250, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4500, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [6]. - **Outer - market Quotes (Dollars/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 680, unchanged; Japanese pulp was 540, up 1.89% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs (Yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 5559, unchanged; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425, up 1.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 691,000 tons, unchanged from September; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.318 million tons, down 2.80% from September. The monthly domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated. The shipment volume of pulp to China decreased by 7.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of December 4, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 2.107 million tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 210,000 tons. The port inventory showed a de - stocking trend [6]. - **Demand**: The production volume of finished paper such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated monthly [6].
纸浆数据日报-20251209
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 05:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of pulp has positive factors as Canadian pulp mills have reduced production, and there is no new warehouse receipt registration, so the delivery resources for near - month contracts are tight. However, new warehouse receipt registration appears when the price rises to 5,500 yuan/ton on the market, limiting further upward space [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On December 6, 2025, SP2601 was 5,392 yuan/ton, down 1.06% day - on - day and up 3.89% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4,682 yuan/ton, down 1.84% day - on - day and down 0.47% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5,436 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day and up 3.42% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On December 6, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.90% week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Fish was 4,500 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; Japanese West Fish was 540 US dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5,559 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; Japanese Fish was 4,425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4,830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Imports**: In October 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 69.1 tons, unchanged month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 131.8 tons, down 2.80% month - on - month [6] - **Shipments**: The pulp shipments to China in October 2025 were 173 thousand tons, down 7.49% month - on - month [6] - **Domestic Production**: The production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuates over different weeks in 2025 [6] - **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: As of December 4, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 210.7 tons, showing a decreasing trend compared with previous periods [6] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of December 4, 2025, the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 21.0 tons, also showing a certain change trend compared with previous periods [6] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuates over different weeks in 2025 [6] - **Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis**: Recently, the international wood chip supply has been tight and prices have risen rapidly. APRIL and Bracel under the Golden Eagle Group announced a 20 - US - dollar/ton price increase for bleached hardwood kraft pulp (BHK) in Asia in December. On the demand side, wood - pulp paper has issued price increase letters recently, with only white cardboard having good implementation. As of December 4, 2025, the inventory in China's mainstream pulp ports decreased by 7.1 tons compared with the previous period, a 3.3% decline, and has continued to decline slightly for two consecutive weeks [6]
纸浆周报-20251124
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 07:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently in a state where port inventories are continuously accumulating, and with the expectation of increased future arrivals, market sentiment has significantly declined. Hedging positions have gradually entered the market. The fundamentals of pulp are relatively stable, and the spot market transactions are steady. In the short - term, it is difficult for factory demand to show significant improvement. The far - month contracts are facing pressure after reaching the hedging points of Ural and European softwood pulp. As port inventories continue to accumulate and future arrivals are expected to increase, market sentiment has clearly cooled down. Hedging positions have entered the market one after another, the intention to register warrants has increased, and long - position confidence has weakened, leading to a reduction in positions and an exit from the market. It is expected that pulp will enter a range - bound stage [20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - **Domestic Production**: In the week of November 21, 2025, the production of domestic hardwood pulp was 230,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.10 tons compared to the previous week, with a year - to - date decrease of 0.87%. The production of chemimechanical pulp was 237,000 tons, an increase of 0.10 tons from the previous week [11]. - **Imports**: In October 2025, China's total pulp imports were 2.618 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. The cumulative imports for the year were 29.679 billion tons, a year - to - date increase of 4.8%. Affected by the decrease in working days in October and possible vessel - schedule control by some foreign suppliers, domestic imports declined more than expected in October. However, overseas shipments did not show significant changes. Hardwood pulp shipments increased in September, and it is expected that arrivals will increase in November [11]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - **Demand**: Terminal demand remained unchanged, and downstream production was stable. In the week of November 20, 2025, the production of various downstream paper products was relatively stable. It is expected that downstream production will be supported during the year - end small peak season [13]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation due to increased arrivals and rigid - demand procurement from downstream. Warehouse receipt inventories were in a state of destocking. With the relatively low price of the November contract, the intention to buy for delivery increased, and warehouse receipts were gradually cancelled, but the pressure of remaining old warehouse receipts was still large [13]. 1.3 Price and Spread - **Quotations**: Market research shows that after the Chongqing ordering meeting, external quotations are expected to rise, with both softwood and hardwood pulp increasing by $20. - **Spot Prices**: After the price increase, spot transactions weakened, and market sentiment cooled down. With the rapid accumulation of port inventories, some softwood pulp spot prices were gradually reduced, while hardwood pulp prices were relatively firm due to arrival schedules and rigid - demand procurement. - **Futures Prices**: The pulp fundamentals were relatively stable, and spot transactions were steady. The far - month contracts faced pressure after reaching the hedging points of Ural and European softwood pulp. With the continuous accumulation of port inventories and the expectation of increased future arrivals, market sentiment clearly declined, and hedging positions entered the market, leading to a decline in the futures market [15]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The cost of domestic hardwood pulp was relatively stable, while the import cost of pulp was expected to increase in the next round. - **Profit**: The profit of domestic pulp was expected to increase slightly, while the profit of imported pulp was expected to be further squeezed. The profit of paper products was expected to be relatively stable [17]. 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - Given the current situation where there are no obvious contradictions in the market, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach. In a wide - range oscillating pattern, if one holds deliverable spot goods with appropriate costs, they can sell call options or accumulate put options on the 03 contract when prices are high. If one wants to purchase goods at a low price, they can sell put options or accumulate call options when prices are low to achieve cost - reduction and high - point hedging [20]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet The report provides a detailed pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including supply (domestic production, imports), demand (downstream production, pulp consumption), and inventory (port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory) data, as well as their cumulative values and year - on - year changes [23]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Information on global pulp shipments is presented, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - **Demand and Inventory**: Information on European pulp apparent demand and inventory is presented, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: - **Imports**: The report provides data on the import volume of various types of pulp (softwood, hardwood, chemimechanical pulp, etc.) and wood chips (softwood chips, hardwood chips) from 2022 to 2025, including monthly and cumulative data and year - on - year changes [42][45][65]. - **Production Capacity and Planned Investments**: A large number of domestic paper - making enterprises' production capacity expansion and new project investment plans are listed, including the production capacity, location, and expected commissioning time of each project [98]. - **Demand - side**: - **Apparent Demand**: Data on the apparent demand of various types of paper products (toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard) from 2022 to 2025 are provided [137][138][140][142]. - **Export and Import**: Data on the import, export, and cumulative import and export volume of various types of paper products from 2022 to 2025 are provided [101][118][127]. - **Inventory - side**: Data on the total inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port - specific inventory of domestic pulp from 2022 to 2025 are provided [147][150][153]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - **Import Cost and Profit**: Information on the import cost and profit of pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: Information on the production cost and profit of domestic pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **External Quotations**: Information on the external quotations of pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - **Seasonal Price and Spread**: The report provides seasonal price and spread data for various types of pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle, Goldfish, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, including price seasonal charts, spread seasonal charts, and basis charts [177][179][183].