Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is under negative pressure in terms of supply, demand, and inventory. It is recommended to conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread as the pulp futures are at an absolute low, with no upward driving force and significant old warehouse receipt pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano raised prices in Asia and Europe in September 2025, and Arauco adjusted its quotes. Although the阔叶浆 outer - market quotes increased for two consecutive periods, the针叶浆 outer - market quotes decreased. South American exports increased in September, and supply is expected to remain loose [3]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp paper products did not rise significantly. Paper mills maintained just - in - time replenishment, and there was no boost to pulp prices [3]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a 0.1% month - on - month decline, showing a narrow downward trend [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread. It is recommended to wait and see as pulp futures are at a low level with no upward driving force and significant old warehouse receipt pressure [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, no recommendation; for arbitrage, conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the removal of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: This week, the pulp fundamentals remained stable, with the futures price fluctuating at a low level. The old warehouse receipt problem remains unsolved, and the near - month contract is under pressure [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broad - leaf pulp was stable, while the price of softwood pulp declined. Specifically, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4,830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week but down 250 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [15]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In September, the price of broad - leaf pulp increased, while the outer - market quotes of softwood pulp decreased. Arauco adjusted its quotes in August and September [18]. - **Position**: As of October 17, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 394,124 lots, up 0.46% from last week; the position of the main contract was 179,966 lots, up 36.73% from last week [21]. Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamentals Data - **Import Volume**: In August, the import volume of pulp and wood chips decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.653 million tons, down 7.79%; the softwood pulp import volume was 614,000 tons, down 4.95%; the broad - leaf pulp import volume was 1.258 million tons, down 6.88%; the broad - leaf wood chip import volume was 1.259 million tons, down 6.11% [4]. - **Inventory**: Chinese port pulp inventory was stable, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of broad - leaf pulp mills was stable. As of the end of July, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 47 days, with 50 days for bleached softwood pulp and 45 days for bleached hardwood pulp [32][36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of October 17, 2025, among the four major wood - pulp papers, the price of white cardboard increased, while the prices of the other three remained stable. In September 2025, the production volume of paper products increased month - on - month. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while that of other paper products remained stable [40][47][54]. - **European and American Demand**: In September 2025, the available days of European softwood pulp inventory decreased by 3.7 to 26.5, and that of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 4.2 to 26.7. As of August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.52%, down 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio in July was 1.02, down month - on - month [72]. Part Four: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: The basis weakened. As of October 17, 2025, the basis of Shandong Buzhen pulp was - 292 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star pulp was 398 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - 1 spread narrowed to - 284 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from last week [80]. - **Import Profit**: As of October 17, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was 162 yuan/ton, up 4.6 yuan/ton from last week; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was 31 yuan/ton, up 3.4 yuan/ton from last week [81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of pulp have shown no signs of recovery. Pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased, and pulp futures are trending weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 29, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5174, down 1.86% day - on - day and 2.16% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4878, down 2.75% day - on - day and 2.60% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5214, down 1.55% day - on - day and 1.92% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600, down 0.88% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5150, down 0.96% day - on - day and week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, up 0.71% day - on - day and week - on - week [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Japanese pulp was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. Chinese pulp shipments were 162 tons, up 4.50% [5] - **Production**: In September 2025, hardwood pulp production was 23.8 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 22.3 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. Futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: In September 2025, offset paper production was 21.00 tons; coated paper production was 8.50 tons; tissue paper production was 28.07 tons; white cardboard production was 35.90 tons [5] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 29, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 272, with a quantile level of 0.918; the Silver Star basis was 722, with a quantile level of 0.922 [5] - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star had an import profit of - 121, with a quantile level of 0.429; hardwood pulp Goldfish had an import profit of - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5] Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Chilean Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in hardwood pulp quotes [5] - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand remains at a stable level, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, China's mainstream pulp port sample inventory was 203.3 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [5]