纸浆：高库存继续常态化，浆价宽幅震荡为主 正信期货纸浆周报 20250623 研究员：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 供应端：上周纸浆产量为48.29万吨，环比增加0.09万吨，环比增幅0.19%，其中阔叶浆产量20.9万吨、化 机浆产量19.9万吨；预计本周国产阔叶浆产量约21.0万吨，化机浆产量约20.1万吨。 需求端：生活用纸市场，部分纸企库存压力增大，出货受限，开工变动不大，预计本周生活用纸产量约 27.5万吨；双胶纸市场，工厂生产稍有恢复，部分季节性订单少量供纸，预期本周双胶纸产量约19.8万吨； 铜版纸市场，少量季节性订单供货中，开工变化不大，预计本周铜版纸产量约7.7万吨；白卡纸市场，有停 机纸厂恢复生产，产量将有所增加，预计本周白卡纸产量约30.0万吨。 库存端：国内港口库存呈累库走势，库存量为220.8万吨，环比累库2.3万吨（或+1.1%），其中青岛港库 存量135.8万吨，环比累库1.6万吨（或+1.19%）；预计本周纸浆港口库存量约222万吨，将继 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Due to some traders holding back supplies, the circulation of pulp has tightened temporarily. The main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, oscillated and rebounded within a range of about 300 points last week. It is expected that the price of the main contract of pulp futures will mainly oscillate and rebound within the range of 5260 - 5630 this week. Operationally, when the price rebounds after a mid - week correction and encounters support, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices, with risk control in mind [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp rebounded slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star rose to 6300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (or +1.61%); Kalip rose to 6350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (or +2.42%); Northwood rose to 6500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (or +3.17%). The price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish rose to 4250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (or +3.66%); Birdie and Alpine rose to 4200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (or +3.7%). However, the prices of some non - wood pulps such as virgin pulp and bamboo pulp decreased slightly [11][13]. - **Pulp Futures Price Review**: The main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, oscillated and rebounded within a range of about 300 points last week, closing at 5356 yuan/ton on the weekly line, up 192 yuan/ton (or +3.72%). The trading volume was 1.145 million lots, an increase of 354,000 lots, and the open interest was 96,200 lots, a decrease of 19,200 lots [17]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount of pulp futures and spot decreased slightly as the increase in the spot price of wood pulp was less than that of the futures price last week. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 944 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92 yuan/ton compared with last week [20]. - **Log Futures Price Review**: The main contract of log futures, 2507, showed a trend of rising first and then falling with oscillatory adjustments last week, closing at 783.0 yuan/cubic meter on the weekly line, down 1.5 yuan/cubic meter (or - 0.19%) compared with the previous week. The trading volume was 95,700 lots, an increase of 34,700 lots, and the open interest was 27,400 lots, a decrease of 3,300 lots [22]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 487,500 tons, a decrease of 8,200 tons (or - 1.66%) compared with the previous week. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 207,000 tons, and the production of chemi - mechanical pulp was 201,000 tons. It is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 200,000 tons and the production of chemi - mechanical pulp will be about 195,000 tons this week [24]. - **Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemi - mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.5%, a decrease of 3.09% compared with the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemi - mechanical pulp was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.01% compared with the previous week [29]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In April 2025, the domestic pulp production was 1.9997 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons (or - 9.64%) compared with the previous month. The production of wood pulp was 1.644 million tons, a decrease of 210,900 tons (or - 11.37%); the production of broad - leaf pulp was 803,000 tons, a decrease of 174,800 tons (or - 17.87%); the production of chemi - mechanical pulp was 841,000 tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons (or - 4.12%) [30]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemi - mechanical Pulp**: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 69.22%, a decrease of 12.37% compared with the previous month; the capacity utilization rate of chemi - mechanical pulp was 83.62%, a decrease of 0.74% compared with the previous month. The production of bamboo pulp was 264,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons (or - 0.63%); the production of sugarcane pulp was 76,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons (or - 0.54%) [35]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In April 2025, the pulp import volume was 2.8928 million tons, a decrease of 356,300 tons (or - 10.97%) compared with the previous month and a decrease of 327,200 tons (or - 10.16%) compared with the same period last year. The cumulative import volume from January to April 2025 was 12.53 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons (or +1%) compared with the same period last year [39]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 277,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.36%) compared with the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 62.6%, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the previous week [42]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 77,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons (or +4.05%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.9%, an increase of 2.3% compared with the previous week. The offset paper production was 200,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.5%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.1%, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous week [46]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, in the packaging paper market, the production of white cardboard was 279,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons (or - 3.79%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.05%, a decrease of 2.68% compared with the previous week. The production of corrugated paper was 457,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons (or +2.93%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 60.8%, an increase of 1.7% compared with the previous week. The production of boxboard paper was 613,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons (or +2.68%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.1%, an increase of 1.8% compared with the previous week [49][52]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, in the tissue paper market, the price of Shandong wood pulp jumbo roll base paper remained stable, the price of Sichuan bamboo pulp jumbo roll base paper remained stable, and the price of Guangxi sugarcane pulp jumbo roll base paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.9%). In the cultural paper market, the price of Shandong 70g offset paper remained stable, and the price of 157g copperplate paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.90%). In the white cardboard market, the price of Jiangsu Bohui 250 - 4，00g white cardboard decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.28%), and the price of Wanguo Taiyang 250 - 400g white cardboard remained stable. In the boxboard and corrugated paper markets, the prices remained stable [53][57][59]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the domestic tissue paper production was 1.258 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons (or - 4.55%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 66.5%, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the previous month. The domestic white cardboard production was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons (or - 7.04%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.0%, a decrease of 3.02% compared with the previous month. The domestic offset paper production was 832,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (or - 3.48%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.25%, a decrease of 0.16% compared with the previous month. The copperplate paper production was 344,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.5%, an increase of 0.19% compared with the previous month. The domestic pulp consumption in April 2025 was 3.268 million tons, a decrease of 173,000 tons (or - 5.03%) compared with the previous month [62][65][68]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Last week, the overall domestic port inventory showed a trend of accumulation. The inventory of the main port samples was 2.198 million tons, an increase of 163,000 tons (or +8.01%) compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.387 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons (or +5.24%) compared with the previous week. The inventory of Changshu Port was 525,000 tons, an increase of 97,000 tons (or +22.66%) compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Tianjin Port was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons (or - 33.33%) compared with the previous week [72][73]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 252,600 tons, a decrease of 68,017 tons (or - 21.21%) compared with the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong were 227,500 tons, a decrease of 49,412 tons (or - 17.84%) compared with the previous week [75].