12月13日，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长王一鸣在2025—2026中国经济年会上表示，当前经济运行出 现了积极的边际变化，2026年我国经济企稳回升有四方面有利条件。 王一鸣表示，2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。而面对外部环境的复杂变化带来的冲击，以及国内的困 难挑战，中国经济顶住了压力，实施更加积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策，在工业、服务业生产的强 劲韧性和出口超预期增长的支撑下，第三季度实现了5.2%的增长，全年有望实现5%左右的预期增长目 标。 过去一年有很多新的变化，如科技创新取得重要进展、现代化产业体系建设持续推进等。特别是近期经 济运行出现了积极的边际变化，包括核心CPI开始回升、企业利润有所改善、政府支出转向扩张等。 王一鸣表示，尽管当前物价整体低迷，但扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI开始缓慢回升。1—11月份， 核心CPI同比上涨0.7%，其中11月份核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。要继续推 动这个变化。 同时，企业利润也正在改善。前三季度，全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长3.2%，总体实现好转。 其中，8月、9月，规模以上工业企业利润分别增长20.4%、21.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]