开年以来，政策预期、流动性与基本面共振上修，投资者对证券市场也有了更多的期待。 数据说明：截至2025.12.31，张雨迪具有7.4年证券从业经历，其中6.6年证券研究经历，0.8年证券投资 经历，张雨迪历任基金——华商稳健泓利一年持有混合20250226至今。文中观点来自基金定期报告，仅 为基金经理投资理念，基金的投资策略详见基金法律文件。华商稳健泓利一年持有混合A类申购费率根 据申购金额划分不同标准：金额＜100万元时费率为0.8%；100万元≤金额＜300万元时费率为0.5%；300 万元≤金额＜500万元时费率为0.3%；金额≥500万元时按每笔1000元收取。C类基金份额不收取申购费。 投资人持有本基金 A 类或 C 类基金份额需至少满一年，在一年持有期内不能提出赎回申请，持有满一 年后赎回，不收取赎回费用。红利再投资的基金份额在对应认购/申购份额锁定持有期到期后即可进行 赎回或转换转出，不收取赎回费用。销售服务费A类不收取，C类0.4%/年。通过本公司直销中心申购本 基金的养老金客户适用特定的申购费率，详见本基金《招募说明书》及相关公告。 华商稳健泓利一年持有混合基金经理张雨迪表示，展望未来，预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is showing positive marginal changes, with favorable conditions for stabilization and recovery in 2026, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, resilient industrial and service sector performance, and unexpected export growth [1][2]. Economic Growth and Performance - In Q3, China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.2%, with an annual growth target of around 5% expected to be met [1]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has started to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% from January to November, and a 1.2% increase in November alone, marking three consecutive months above 1% [1][2]. Corporate Profitability - Profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with significant growth in August (20.4%) and September (21.6%) reversing previous declines [2]. - The number of loss-making enterprises decreased, with losses down by 8.1% year-on-year [2]. Government Spending and Fiscal Policy - Public fiscal expenditure grew by 3.1% in the first three quarters, while government fund expenditures surged by 23.9%, leading to a total government spending increase of 7.9% year-on-year, which is 8.9 percentage points higher than the previous year [2]. Future Economic Conditions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is set to conclude in 2025, paving the way for the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to create new market opportunities worth approximately 10 trillion yuan [2][3]. - The transition from low-cost advantages to comprehensive competitive advantages is underway, with a focus on digital economy and new energy sectors [3]. Macroeconomic Policies - More proactive macroeconomic policies are anticipated, with fiscal policies expected to improve as local government financial pressures ease, and monetary policies may have room for further easing [3][4]. Microeconomic Stability - Improvement in microeconomic balance sheets is noted, with a gradual recovery in the real estate sector and a positive "wealth effect" from the stock market, which may boost consumer spending and stabilize corporate investments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]