中信证券指出，9月制造业PMI读数季节性回升，景气情况较8月小幅改善，主要是受益于反内卷影响下 企业生产补库节奏向9月集中。从结构上看，景气改善的主要是生产、产成品库存和新出口订单，但内 需和价格指标有放缓迹象，反映消费者对于涨价的接受度不高，PPI环比读数可能回落。从行业看，部 分原材料行业和资本品相关行业景气较好，不过反内卷重点行业的出厂价格指数普遍回到50以下。9月 非制造业PMI较历史同期差距扩大，主要受服务业景气下滑拖累，可能与就业市场小幅回落和台风等极 端天气有关。总的来说，9月制造业景气虽然边际回升，但服务业和内需相关指标有所回落，向后看预 计四季度增量政策工具将陆续落地，助力经济平稳运行。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Overseas: In July, US personal consumption expenditure showed resilience with a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 0.3% real growth. PCE inflation remained at 2.6% year - on - year, while core PCE rose to 2.9%, highlighting core inflation pressure. The market's probability of a 25BP Fed rate cut in September remained at 87%. Trump's attempt to fire Fed理事Cook led to a legal battle. The dollar index fluctuated, US bond yields declined, gold prices rose, and stocks, copper, and crude oil all increased. This week, focus on US August non - farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing data, and Fed personnel issues [2]. - Domestic: In August, the manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 49.4 but remained in the contraction range. New orders and new export orders were weak, and the "anti - involution" policy pushed up price indices, alleviating deflation pressure. The non - manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, with the service industry PMI reaching a yearly high. A - shares fluctuated, and the bond market was weak. As the domestic important node approaches, market divergence is expected to increase, and the window for peak stock market risk appetite may be approaching. This week, focus on the SCO Summit [2]. 3. Section Summaries Overseas Macro - 7 - month US PCE: Overall in line with expectations, with energy and food items falling, core goods cooling, and core services warming. The market's probability of a September rate cut remained at around 87% [4][5]. Domestic Macro - August Manufacturing: The PMI slightly increased but was still in the contraction range. Supply and demand improved, "anti - involution" pushed up prices, and there was raw material restocking and finished - product destocking. The service industry's PMI rose to a yearly high, while the construction industry was at a low level [7][8]. Asset Performance - Equity: A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas stocks showed different trends. A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high, but the market's money - making effect was not strong [11]. - Bond: Domestic and overseas bond yields changed. In the domestic market, 10 - year and 30 - year bond yields were at 1.78% and 2.01% respectively, and in September, government bond issuance may pressure the bond market [2]. - Commodity: Different commodities had different price trends. Gold and silver prices rose, while crude oil prices showed a mixed performance [17]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index and exchange rates of major currencies changed. The US dollar index fluctuated, and the US dollar weakened against the RMB [19]. High - Frequency Data - Domestic: Data on congestion, subway passenger volume, real estate transactions, and passenger car sales were presented, but no specific analysis was provided [21]. - Overseas: Data on retail sales, unemployment claims, and financial conditions were presented, but no specific analysis was provided [26]. This Week's Key Data and Events - A series of economic data from China, the eurozone, and the US will be released this week, including PMI, CPI, employment, and trade data [29].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In July, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, breaking the consecutive increase seen in Q2[5] - The decline in PMI is attributed to two main factors: the end of the overseas order recovery phase and disruptions caused by extreme weather[5] - The production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, with significant impacts on industries like non-metallic mineral products and chemical raw materials due to extreme weather events[5] Group 2: Price Dynamics in Manufacturing - The price indicators in manufacturing showed improvement, with the main raw material purchase price index rising to 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, marking increases of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively from June[10] - Despite the rise in purchase prices, factory prices are contracting, indicating a widening gap that may weaken overall manufacturing profits in the short term[11] - The basic raw materials sector is the only one among four major categories to see an increase in PMI, with its purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52%[11] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to near the threshold line, with both construction and service sectors contributing to this decline[16] - The construction sector's PMI dropped to 50.6%, the largest decline since January, primarily due to extreme weather and ongoing real estate weaknesses[16] - In the non-manufacturing sector, a divergence in price trends was observed, with service sector prices declining while construction input and sales prices increased significantly[19] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and the implementation of policies is not meeting expectations, posing risks to economic stability[22]

中国7月非制造业PMI 50.1，预期50.2，前值50.5。 ...

中国7月官方制造业PMI为49.3，预期49.7，前值49.7；非制造业PMI为50.1，预期50.3，前值50.5；综合PMI为50.2，前值50.7。 https://t.co/nHn2KnFYUy ...

Group 1 - The non-manufacturing PMI in China for June is reported at 50.5, which exceeds the expected value of 50.3 and matches the previous value of 50.3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming release of China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for June at 9:30 AM Beijing time, indicating a significant event for market participants to monitor [1] Group 1 - The release of the manufacturing PMI is crucial for assessing the health of the manufacturing sector in China, which is a key driver of the country's economy [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI will provide insights into the services sector, which has been increasingly important in China's economic structure [1]

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) experienced a slight decline of 0.16% as of June 12, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Tianfu Communication (300394) led the gains with an increase of 11.15%, while Chuangfeng Power (603129) was the biggest loser, down 3.27% [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) showed a tight trading range with a latest price of 0.95 yuan and a turnover rate of 5.45%, with a total transaction volume of 8.65 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Citic Securities, the A-share market is expected to stabilize due to improved risk appetite following negotiations between China and the U.S. leadership [2] - The manufacturing PMI showed recovery in May after a decline due to trade conflicts in April, while the non-manufacturing PMI is approaching 50, indicating weak verification of recovery [2] - The A500 ETF closely tracks the A500 index, which selects 500 securities with larger market capitalization and better liquidity from various industries [2] Group 3 - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index accounted for 21.21% of the index, including Kweichow Moutai (600519) and CATL (300750) [2] - The top ten stocks by weight include Kweichow Moutai (4.28%), CATL (2.96%), and Ping An Insurance (2.46%) [3] Group 4 - The A500 ETF fund has several related funds, including the 华夏中证A500ETF联接A (022430) and 华夏中证A500指数增强A (023619) [4]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 283 points or 1.2%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.5% to 5,170.43 [4] - The market experienced significant pressure from blue-chip technology stocks, with Alibaba down 3.6%, Baidu down 3.7%, and Tencent down 2.4% [4] - The overall market turnover was HKD 271.56 billion, with net inflows from northbound trading at HKD 9.65 billion [4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that progress in U.S.-China trade talks has been slow, raising market concerns and contributing to a drop in Hong Kong stocks [5] - China's non-manufacturing PMI for May decreased to 50.3, indicating a slight decline in business activity, although it remains above the critical point [10] Industry Dynamics - The Hong Kong government is pushing for the establishment of an International Mediation Centre, which aims to enhance Hong Kong's position as a center for international legal and dispute resolution services [8] - The Financial Secretary emphasized the integration of traditional and digital finance in Hong Kong, aiming to solidify its status as a leading financial innovation hub [9] Company News - Li Auto reported a 16.7% year-on-year increase in new car deliveries for May, totaling 40,856 vehicles, with a cumulative delivery of over 1.3 million vehicles [14] - Xiaomi's car deliveries remained stable in May, exceeding 28,000 units, as the company prepares for large-scale production of its new model [15] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group anticipates a more than 45% decline in interim profit due to decreased sales and increased competition in the pharmaceutical market [17]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China's non-manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 50.3, which is below the expected 50.5 and slightly lower than the previous value of 50.4 [1] Group 2 - The non-manufacturing PMI figure indicates a slowdown in the services sector, as a reading above 50 indicates expansion while below 50 indicates contraction [1] - The slight decline from the previous month suggests potential challenges in the non-manufacturing sector, which could impact overall economic growth [1] - The data reflects ongoing economic conditions and may influence investor sentiment regarding the Chinese economy [1]