证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 03 日 ——利率半月报（2026.1.19-2026.2.1） 投资要点： 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 重回荣枯线以下 报告核心观点：1 月制造业 PMI 较上月回落，重回荣枯线以下，非制造业 PMI 同步 回落，均时隔一个月再度进入收缩区间，或表明我国企业生产经营活动总体较上月 有所放缓。1 月制造业 PMI 环比-0.8pct 至 49.3%，1 月非制造业商务活动指数为 49.4%，环比-0.8pct，1 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，较上月-0.9pct，均略低于 荣枯线。预计 26 年消费端持续有政策支持但力度或较 25 年有所回落，叠加 25 年社 零表现亮眼，高基数下 26 年消费端对经济的支撑效果或有所减弱。投资端基建和地 产对经济的拖累或将持续。受 25 年上半年抢出口影响，26 年外贸增长韧性有待观 察。或需持续关注稳增长政策落地效果及新质生产力等方向对经济的支撑作用。 本周（1/19-2/1）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - January Manufacturing PMI in China is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a shift from expansion to contraction[2] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points; medium enterprises at 48.7%, down 1.1 percentage points; and small enterprises at 47.4%, down 1.2 percentage points, showing a divergence in performance[2] - The production index is at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points, remaining above 50% for two consecutive months[7] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - New orders index is at 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, while new export orders are at 47.8%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating weak demand[2] - The import index is at 47.3%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting a slight recovery in imports[2] - The inventory-sales ratio is 1.08, up from 1.05 in December, indicating a slowdown in destocking[3] Group 3: Price and Profitability Indicators - The factory price index is at 50.6%, up 1.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion territory[3] - The main raw material purchase price index is at 56.1%, up 3 percentage points, indicating rising input costs[3] - Profitability index is at -5.5%, down 1.3 percentage points, indicating that factory prices are not keeping pace with raw material costs, leading to declining profit levels[19] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - January Non-Manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, marking a new low for 2023[4] - The services sector PMI is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, while the construction sector PMI is at 48.8%, down 4 percentage points, indicating significant contraction[4] Group 5: Employment and Logistics - Employment index is at 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment conditions[21] - Supplier delivery time index is at 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, but still above the neutral mark, indicating faster delivery times[21]

1月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。分行业看，建筑业商务活动指数为 48.8%，比上月下降4.0个百分点；服务业商务活动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。从服务业行 业看，货币金融服务、资本市场服务、保险等行业商务活动指数均高于65.0%；批发、住宿、房地产等 行业商务活动指数均低于临界点。 资讯编辑：费斐 021-26093397 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 ...

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.26 with a 2.07 bp increase, DR007 at 1.43 with a 0.26 bp increase, GC001 at 1.74 with a 173.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.57 with a 156.50 bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.32 with a 1.80 bp increase, 5 - year at 1.62 with a 1.00 bp increase, 10 - year at 1.83 with a 1.70 bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 0.00 with no change [3] - The central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operation rate of 1.40%, and 3125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan [3] - This week, 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases will mature on Thursday, and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Friday [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 rose 1.9% to 4717.7, the SSE 50 rose 2.26% to 3099.7, the CSI 500 rose 2.49% to 7651.2, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.09% to 7753.9 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 28326 billion yuan, an increase of 2651 billion yuan [6] - Most industry sectors rose, with only the beauty and care sector falling [6] - In the short term, the stock index may continue its strong trend, and in 2026, it is expected to rise further on the basis of 2025 [7] - It is recommended that investors choose to build long positions [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Domestic factors have a generally positive impact on the stock index, including improved fundamental data, policy support, good liquidity, and high market risk - appetite [6] - In December 2025, both the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range [6] - In 2026, the "two new" policies were clearly implemented, and the scope of equipment renewal support was broadened [6] - Before the festival, the trading activity of A - shares increased significantly, and the margin trading balance increased [6] - During the festival, the Hong Kong stock market and the A50 index performed actively, and the RMB exchange rate strengthened [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2) Core View of the Report In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, up 0.9 from the previous month, significantly higher than the market - expected 49.3, returning above 50 for the first time in 8 months. The non - manufacturing PMI business activity was 50.2, up 0.7 from the previous month, higher than the market - expected 49.5. The manufacturing PMI showed an overall recovery, while the non - manufacturing PMI was in a relatively weak state [4][21]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Review of China's Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI Data Tables - The table presents the manufacturing PMI and its sub - items for December and November 2025, including production, new orders, new export orders, etc., along with their changes [2]. Second Part: Full Recovery of Manufacturing PMI in December - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, with significant recoveries in production, new orders, new export orders, and production and operation expectations. The main raw material purchase price and employment sub - items declined. It recovered against the seasonal trend, and most sub - items were at the middle level of the historical same period, indicating economic recovery. The finished product inventory was at a relatively high level, and there was a time lag in the economic recovery reaching the price end. Small - sized enterprises' PMI declined, while large and medium - sized enterprises' PMI increased. The economic cycle also showed a repair state [4][5]. Third Part: Mixed Performance and Overall Weakness of Non - manufacturing PMI in December - In December 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI business activity was 50.2. Some sub - items such as new orders, employment, and business activity increased, while sales price, new export orders, input price, and on - hand orders decreased. The decline in input and sales prices reflected the weakness of the non - manufacturing economy. Seasonally, many key indicators were at relatively low levels in the historical same period. The construction industry PMI continued to decline, and the service industry PMI was at a relatively low level [21][22].

Key Points - The manufacturing PMI for December in China is 50.1%, exceeding expectations of 49.2% and the previous value of 49.2% [1][38] - The non-manufacturing PMI for December is 50.2%, above the expected 49.6% and previous 49.5% [1][38] - The composite PMI stands at 50.7%, up from 49.7% previously, indicating an overall recovery in economic sentiment [1][38] Manufacturing Sector - In December, the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, indicating a better-than-expected recovery in manufacturing sentiment [4][40] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points; small enterprises reported a decline to 48.6% [4][40] - Key industries such as high-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase in PMI from 50.1% to 52.5%, indicating strong recovery [4][40] Demand and Supply - The new orders index rose to 50.8%, marking the first increase above the critical point since the second half of the year, indicating improved market demand [12][46] - The production index increased to 51.7%, suggesting accelerated manufacturing activities [12][46] - The new export orders index improved to 49%, indicating a recovery in external demand [12][46] Price and Inventory - The purchasing price index is at 53.1%, while the factory price index is at 48.9%, reflecting a short-term increase in manufacturing prices [23][55] - Finished goods inventory index rose to 48.2%, and raw material inventory index increased to 47.8%, indicating proactive replenishment by manufacturers [23][55] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 50.2%, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector [26][59] - The construction industry saw a significant rise in its business activity index to 52.8%, reflecting a positive outlook [26][59] - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.7%, showing slight improvement but still in contraction territory [26][59] Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [34][68] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are at 51.7% and 50.2%, respectively, reflecting a broad-based recovery [34][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On December 1, the main contracts of stock index futures opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable, which would help the short - term upward movement of stock index futures. The main contracts of stock index futures were expected to oscillate strongly during the day and attack resistance levels [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook Points - On December 1, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable, which would help the short - term upward movement of stock index futures [2]. - IF2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 4550 and 4565 points (4565 points had relatively strong short - term resistance), with support levels at 4511 and 4492 points (4492 points had strong support) [2][8]. - IH2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 2990 and 3000 points (3000 points had relatively strong resistance), with support levels at 2963 and 2952 points (2952 points had strong short - term support) [2][9]. - IC2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 7054 and 7112 points (7112 points had relatively strong short - term resistance), with support levels at 6974 and 6925 points (6925 points had strong short - term support) [2][10]. - IM2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 7322 and 7365 points (7365 points had relatively strong medium - and short - term resistance), with support levels at 7260 and 7211 points (7211 points had strong short - term support) [3][10]. Macroeconomic and Stock Market News - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable [2][4]. - From January to October, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 683529.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; the total profit was 34214.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. As of the end of October, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - In October, China's exports of goods and services in international payments were 3416 billion US dollars, imports were 2625 billion US dollars, with a surplus of 792 billion US dollars. At the end of June, China's external securities investment assets (excluding reserve assets) were 16942 billion US dollars, including 10763 billion US dollars in equity investment and 6179 billion US dollars in bond investment [4]. - The China National Space Administration had recently established a commercial space department, and related businesses were gradually being carried out, marking that China's commercial space industry had a full - time regulatory agency, which would continue to promote the high - quality development of China's commercial space, and the entire industrial chain was expected to benefit [5]. - The US Secretary of State Rubio said after the new round of US - Ukraine negotiations that the talks with Ukraine were "fruitful", but there was still much work to be done. He also said that Russia would play a central role in any agreement to end the conflict with Ukraine. The US government would strengthen diplomatic efforts in the next week, and the US special envoy for the Middle East, Witkoff, was expected to go to Moscow for further talks [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Measures for the Implementation of Supervision and Administration Measures in the Securities and Futures Markets (Draft for Comment)". The "Measures" clearly listed 14 commonly used measures such as ordering corrections, regulatory talks, issuing warning letters, and ordering regular reports, and used "other supervision and administration measures stipulated by laws, administrative regulations, and CSRC regulations" as a catch - all provision [7]. - On November 28, China Securities Index Co., Ltd. announced regular adjustments to the constituent stocks of multiple indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. decided to adjust the constituent stocks of indices such as the SSE 50 and STAR 50, and the adjustments would take effect after the market closed on December 12. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that it would conduct regular adjustments to the constituent stocks of indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100, and ChiNext 50 on December 15 [7]. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the market trend of the main futures contracts on the day was expected as follows: - On December 1, the main contract IF2512 of the CSI 300 stock index futures opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 4539.4 points, up 0.72%. It failed to break through the 4550 - point resistance, with obvious support at the 4511.2 - point support since September 4. It broke through the 10 - day moving average resistance but failed to break through the 60 - day moving average resistance, and continued to rise in the short term [7]. - The main contract IH2512 of the SSE 50 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated slightly upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 2973.6 points, up 0.33%. It failed to break through the resistance at the high point of 2986.4 points on November 27, with obvious support at the closing price of 2963.2 points on November 28. It broke through the support and resistance of the 10 - day moving average but failed to break through the 60 - day moving average resistance, and the support of the 5 - day moving average was regained. It continued to rise slightly in the short term, but the upward movement was a bit weak [8]. - The main contract IC2512 of the CSI 500 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 7028.2 points, up 0.83%. It failed to break through the resistance at the medium - and short - term low point of 7053.8 points since September 4, with obvious support at the closing price of 6974.2 points on November 28. It failed to effectively break through the 60 - day moving average resistance and continued to rise in the short term [9]. - The main contract IM2512 of the CSI 1000 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated slightly upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 7300.2 points, up 0.70%. It failed to effectively break through the short - term resistance of 7321.6 points since October 9, and the support of the closing price of 7260.8 points on November 28 was regained. It failed to effectively break through the resistance of the 40 - day and 20 - day moving averages, with obvious support from the 60 - day moving average. It continued to rise slightly in the short term [10]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IF in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 4426 and 4307 points and resistance levels at 4690 and 4741 points [10]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IH in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 2908 and 2872 points and resistance levels at 3030 and 3080 points [11]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IC in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 6650 and 6565 points and resistance levels at 7395 and 7470 points [11]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IM in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 6976 and 6850 points and resistance levels at 7500 and 7600 points [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Q4 economic downward pressure may rise. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in November, but corporate profits may continue to be under pressure. The traditional investment - driven economic model may be unsustainable. Consumption and exports may face pressure. Policy rate cuts and incremental tools in the next six months may be key support measures [2][75]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury to 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bonds to 1.9% (all referring to bonds without VAT) [4][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2pct. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6pct. The comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3pct from the previous month, indicating increased economic growth pressure [4][12]. - In October, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the revenue decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. From January to October, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 5.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [4][21]. - On November 25, the central bank conducted a 1000 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan in November, the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - over [4][22]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of November 23, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars decreased by 6.6% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume increased by 2.2% year - on - year. As of November 27, the 7 - day total national movie box office increased by 70.9% year - on - year. As of November 21, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 25.0% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 48.2% year - on - year [23][27]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of November 23, the container throughput of ports increased by 12.8% year - on - year. As of November 28, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.2% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 7.0% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 2.3% year - on - year [31][32]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 26, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 76.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8pct. As of November 27, the average asphalt operating rate was 20.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0pct. The soda ash operating rate was 81.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0pct, and the PVC operating rate was 78.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4pct [40][42]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of November 28, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 33.2% year - on - year. As of November 21, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [45]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of November 28, the average pork wholesale price decreased by 23.7% year - on - year, the vegetable wholesale price increased by 15.9% year - on - year, and the average price of 6 key fruits increased by 2.0% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the average WTI crude oil spot price decreased by 15.7% year - on - year [46]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 28, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.40%/1.62%/1.84%/2.19% respectively, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.2BP/+2.8BP/+2.6BP/+2.8BP respectively. The yields of other bonds also had corresponding changes [59]. - On November 28, the U.S. dollar - to - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate were 7.08/7.08, down 86/309 pips from November 21 [69]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 5.0 years, and the median was about 4.2 years, compared with November 21, they changed by + 0.11/ - 0.20 years respectively [71]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 2.0 years, and the median was about 2.1 years, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.04/+0.05 years respectively [72]. 3.5 Investment Advice - The report is bullish on the bond market, believing that the current bond market has prominent allocation value. Due to domestic economic data pressure, high short - term interest rates, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the policy rate may be cut by 20BP in the next six months [4][76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The four stock index futures varieties showed a stable rebound last week, with relatively large rebound amplitudes in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. All main contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The A - share market presented features of "index stabilization, sector - structure differentiation, and focused capital preference" last week. The market turnover decreased compared to the previous week, and the trading sentiment was still cautious. In November, the market showed an overall pattern of volatile adjustment, with significant differentiation in the trends of major stock indices. The core hotspots were concentrated in the battery industry chain, regional themes, and computing power hardware. Some state - owned large - scale banks in the weight camp also reached new stage highs, indicating the capital's preference for low - valuation and high - dividend assets in a volatile market [2] - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity declined, possibly due to weak demand and fewer working days. Looking ahead, the long - term liquidity released by the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and the increasing policy expectations due to the approaching Central Economic Work Conference support the market to bottom out and rebound. However, external market fluctuations may cause short - term emotional fluctuations. The short - term market may continue the feature of "bottom - range oscillation with a focus on structure" [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Review - The four stock index futures varieties mainly rebounded stably last week, with relatively large rebound amplitudes in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties fluctuated slightly, and all main contracts were in the futures discount mode. The basis of the main futures contracts (futures - spot) was - 6.42 for IH, - 20.86 for IF, - 57.35 for IC, and - 73.41 for IM. The A - share market showed "index stabilization, sector - structure differentiation, and focused capital preference" last week. By the Friday close, major stock indices generally rose slightly, but the weekly trading volume decreased compared to the previous week, and the trading sentiment was cautious. In November, the market was in a volatile adjustment pattern, with significant differentiation in the trends of major stock indices. The core hotspots were in the battery industry chain, regional themes, and computing power hardware. Some state - owned large - scale banks in the weight camp reached new stage highs, reflecting the capital's preference for low - valuation and high - dividend assets in a volatile market [2] Comprehensive Analysis - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity decline might be related to weak demand and fewer working days. Looking ahead, the long - term liquidity released by the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and the increasing policy expectations due to the approaching Central Economic Work Conference support the market to bottom out and rebound. However, external market fluctuations may cause short - term emotional fluctuations. The short - term market may continue the feature of "bottom - range oscillation with a focus on structure" [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview from December 1 - 7, 2025, including the expected data of various economic indicators and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This Week's Key Focus - On December 1 at 09:45, Markit will release China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI [2]. - On December 4 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 [2]. - On December 5 at 23:00, the US Department of Commerce will release the US September PCE price index [2]. - On December 7 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce November foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves [2]. This Week's Hot - Spot Preview December 1 - China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 51.1 (previous 50.9). A slight increase may help industrial and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [2]. - US November ISM manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 48.5 (previous 48.7). A slight decrease may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures, but help gold and silver futures [3]. December 2 - Eurozone November CPI initial value: Expected harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted initial value is 2.1% (same as previous) [4]. - Eurozone October unemployment rate: Expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [7]. December 3 - China's November SPGI services PMI and composite PMI: Expected services PMI is 51.9 (previous 52.6), composite PMI is 51.5 (previous 51.8). A slight decrease may suppress stock index and commodity futures, but help treasury bond futures [8]. - US November ADP employment change: Expected new employment is 55,000 (previous 42,000). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [9]. - US September industrial production monthly rate: Expected to be 0 (previous 0.1%) [10]. - US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 53.5 (previous 52.4). A slight increase may suppress gold and silver futures [11]. - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending November 28: A continued increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures [12]. December 4 - November下旬 prices of important production materials in the circulation field: The National Bureau of Statistics will release prices of 9 categories and 50 products [13]. - Eurozone October retail sales: Previous monthly rate was - 0.1%, annual rate was 1.0% [14]. - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29: Expected to be 212,000 (previous 216,000). A slight decrease may suppress gold and silver futures and help other industrial futures [15]. December 5 - US September factory orders monthly rate: Previous was 1.4% [16]. - US September PCE price index: Expected annual rate is 2.7% (same as previous), core annual rate is 2.9% (same as previous), core monthly rate is 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Specific changes may strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [17]. - US September personal expenditure monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (previous 0.6%) [18]. - US September personal income monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (same as previous) [19]. - US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value: Expected to be 52 (previous 51). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [20]. December 7 - China's November foreign exchange reserves: Previous was $3343 billion, gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces [21].