证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] "反内卷"下的价格分化 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 1 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 打破制造业 PMI 连涨的两重因素。7 月制造业 PMI 打破了其在二季度连涨 的走势，我们认为 7 月制造业 PMI 走弱是订单回流阶段性结束、极端天 气扰动两重因素共振的结果。首先，极端天气对生产活动产生扰动。 ...

中国7月官方制造业PMI为49.3，预期49.7，前值49.7；非制造业PMI为50.1，预期50.3，前值50.5；综合PMI为50.2，前值50.7。 https://t.co/nHn2KnFYUy ...

中国6月非制造业PMI 50.5，预期50.3，前值50.3。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming release of China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for June at 9:30 AM Beijing time, indicating a significant event for market participants to monitor [1] Group 1 - The release of the manufacturing PMI is crucial for assessing the health of the manufacturing sector in China, which is a key driver of the country's economy [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI will provide insights into the services sector, which has been increasingly important in China's economic structure [1]

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) experienced a slight decline of 0.16% as of June 12, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Tianfu Communication (300394) led the gains with an increase of 11.15%, while Chuangfeng Power (603129) was the biggest loser, down 3.27% [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) showed a tight trading range with a latest price of 0.95 yuan and a turnover rate of 5.45%, with a total transaction volume of 8.65 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Citic Securities, the A-share market is expected to stabilize due to improved risk appetite following negotiations between China and the U.S. leadership [2] - The manufacturing PMI showed recovery in May after a decline due to trade conflicts in April, while the non-manufacturing PMI is approaching 50, indicating weak verification of recovery [2] - The A500 ETF closely tracks the A500 index, which selects 500 securities with larger market capitalization and better liquidity from various industries [2] Group 3 - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index accounted for 21.21% of the index, including Kweichow Moutai (600519) and CATL (300750) [2] - The top ten stocks by weight include Kweichow Moutai (4.28%), CATL (2.96%), and Ping An Insurance (2.46%) [3] Group 4 - The A500 ETF fund has several related funds, including the 华夏中证A500ETF联接A (022430) and 华夏中证A500指数增强A (023619) [4]

网址：www.guodu.com.hk 每日投资策略 恒指收跌 283 点 港股全月涨 1170 点 港股上周五低开 233 点后，跌幅迅速扩大，最多曾 跌 410 点，低见 23163，失守二十天线(处 23268)见支 持，大市跌幅收窄，最终恒指收报 23289，跌 283 点或 1.2%；国指跌 1.5%，报 8432；科指挫 2.5%，报 5170。 大市全日成交 2715.63 亿元，北水净入 96.5 亿元。 · 2025 年 6 月 2 日 星期一 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42,270.07 | 0.13% | | | 标普 500 指数 | 5,911.69 | | -0.01% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 19,113.77 | | -0.32% | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 8,772.38 | 0.64% | | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 23,997.48 | 0.27% | | | 日经 225 指数 | 37,965.10 | | -1.22% | | 台湾加权指数 | ...

中国5月非制造业PMI 50.3，预期50.5，前值50.4。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]

①14:30 瑞士4月CPI月率； ②16:30 欧元区5月Sentix投资者信心指数； ③21:45 美国4月标普全球服务业PMI终值； ④22:00 美国4月ISM非制造业PMI。 周一（5月5日）重点关注财经事件和经济数据 ...

中国4月非制造业PMI 50.4，预期50.6，前值50.8。 ...