经济内卷
Search documents
清华大学教授孙立平:解决经济内卷的出路在于社会修复,回归正常的循环
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-27 02:18
Core Insights - The current state of the Chinese economy is characterized by a weakening of three fundamental drivers: the large-scale consumption wave driven by technological revolution, the wealth effect tied to real estate, and the external market opportunities created by joining the WTO [4][12][14] - The economy is facing issues of "overdraft," "contraction," and "involution," indicating a need for comprehensive "repair" rather than mere stimulus or simple reforms [7][17] Group 1: Economic Drivers - The technological revolution has led to a significant consumption wave, particularly through the introduction of household appliances, which has been a key factor in economic growth over the past decades [9][10] - The wealth effect associated with real estate has played a crucial role in consumer spending, with a notable decline in this effect leading to reduced consumption despite stable income levels [11][13] - The external market created by China's entry into the WTO has been vital for economic expansion, but current trends indicate a retreat from globalization, contributing to economic stagnation [12][14] Group 2: Current Economic Challenges - The economy is experiencing a "contraction" phase, where businesses and government revenues are declining sharply, reflecting a broader economic downturn [15][16] - There is a pressing need for societal and economic "repair" to restore normal consumption patterns and social life, which have been disrupted by the previous economic model [17][18] - The lack of normal social activities, such as marriage and childbirth among younger generations, is indicative of deeper societal issues that affect overall economic health [18]