1月10日，在"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛"上，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示，近期人民 币升值主要受美元贬值及春节前出口和消费季节性因素推动。人民币今年仍有升值空间，短期内一季 度、二季度可能在6.8左右，但年底仍存在不确定性。他强调，中国要解决经济内卷、地方政府激励及 财税体系问题，不可能仅依赖人民币升值实现经济平衡。（第一财经记者陈君君）（本文来自第一财 经） 1月10日，在"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛"上，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示，近期人民 币升值主要受美元贬值及春节前出口和消费季节性因素推动。人民币今年仍有升值空间，短期内一季 度、二季度可能在6.8左右，但年底仍存在不确定性。他强调，中国要解决经济内卷、地方政府激励及 财税体系问题，不可能仅依赖人民币升值实现经济平衡。（第一财经记者陈君君）（本文来自第一财 经） 责任编辑：凌辰 责任编辑：凌辰 ...

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 12 月 26 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 1 位读者获赠本期推 荐好书！ 《变局与定力》 郑永年 著 中信出版集团 出版 内容简介 在嘈杂的时局变化下，厘清大国博弈核心逻辑，剖析有效战略与发展路径 启发理性 + 凝聚共识 + 激发信心 全球局势动荡不安，大国博弈日益激烈。 当代危机的根源究竟是什么？如何应对？ 中国如何与美国打交道？ 人工智能时代，我们应向何处？ …… 如何回应和管理西方的"对华恐惧"？ 中国如何走出经济内卷？ 著作在嘈杂的时局变化下，厘清大国博弈的核心逻辑，剖析中国在复杂国际形势 下的战略选择与发展路径，能够帮助读者更好地理解国家战略规划和政策制定， 对于凝聚共识，激发信心，启发理性认知。同时整本书内容丰富、视角多元，对 于理解当下全球变局、中国的发展路径以及应对策略具有重要的参考价值，无论 是对国际关系、经济领域还是教育领域的研究者和关注者来说，都是一部值得研 究的深度分析之作。 作者简介 郑永年 香港中文大学（深圳）校长学勤讲座教授、公共政策学院院长、前海国际事务研 究院院长，华南理工大学公共政策研究院学术委员会主席，广州粤港澳大湾区研 究院理事长，上 ...

Core Insights - The current state of the Chinese economy is characterized by a weakening of three fundamental drivers: the large-scale consumption wave driven by technological revolution, the wealth effect tied to real estate, and the external market opportunities created by joining the WTO [4][12][14] - The economy is facing issues of "overdraft," "contraction," and "involution," indicating a need for comprehensive "repair" rather than mere stimulus or simple reforms [7][17] Group 1: Economic Drivers - The technological revolution has led to a significant consumption wave, particularly through the introduction of household appliances, which has been a key factor in economic growth over the past decades [9][10] - The wealth effect associated with real estate has played a crucial role in consumer spending, with a notable decline in this effect leading to reduced consumption despite stable income levels [11][13] - The external market created by China's entry into the WTO has been vital for economic expansion, but current trends indicate a retreat from globalization, contributing to economic stagnation [12][14] Group 2: Current Economic Challenges - The economy is experiencing a "contraction" phase, where businesses and government revenues are declining sharply, reflecting a broader economic downturn [15][16] - There is a pressing need for societal and economic "repair" to restore normal consumption patterns and social life, which have been disrupted by the previous economic model [17][18] - The lack of normal social activities, such as marriage and childbirth among younger generations, is indicative of deeper societal issues that affect overall economic health [18]