Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy maintained a stable state in November 2025, with obvious structural improvements, but the endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The report maintains the judgment that the economic growth rate in 2026 will still be positive, with a possible pattern of being lower in the first half and higher in the second half [4]. - In the equity market, market sentiment may continue to improve, and the market may show a volatile upward trend. In the bond market, volatility may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, and attention should be paid to gold, copper, and aluminum priced internationally [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of the November 2025 Economy - The economy maintained a stable state with obvious structural improvements, including the continuous recovery of CPI, prominent economic kinetic energy switching, strengthened export competitiveness, high - level production, steady growth of industrial enterprise profits, and highlights in service consumption [5]. - The endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The "subsidy withdrawal" effect has a significant impact, economic data still needs trend improvement, the endogenous growth momentum needs to be strengthened, and real estate still has a certain drag on the economy [6]. 2. Interpretation of November 2025 Economic Sub - item Data - Manufacturing PMI increased slightly, and service PMI declined. The new order index was the main contributor to the increase in PMI. The PMI of high - tech manufacturing was above the boom - bust line. The service business activity index was below the boom - bust line for the first time since September 2024. The construction industry PMI improved [7][8]. - Fixed - asset investment continued to decline under the drag of real estate. Real estate development investment dragged down the growth rate of fixed - asset investment by 3.4 percentage points. In the future, the drag of real estate on fixed - asset investment is expected to shrink, and infrastructure investment may stabilize, while manufacturing investment should focus on emerging directions [9]. - Service consumption had highlights, while commodity consumption was highly differentiated. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased slightly. Service consumption, such as catering, maintained growth, while commodity consumption, such as automobiles and home appliances, declined due to the "subsidy withdrawal" effect [10]. - Exports showed strong resilience, with prominent structural highlights and a steady expansion of the surplus. In November, the export growth rate rebounded. The exports to Africa performed outstandingly, and the product structure was optimized. Exports are expected to be a major bright spot in the economy in 2026 [11][12]. - Real estate sales continued to bottom out. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the market was still in the process of destocking. The prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [13]. - The production end remained stable. In November, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries grew faster than the overall level [14]. - At the price end, CPI continued to rise, and PPI was stable and waiting to rise. In November, CPI increased year - on - year, and PPI increased month - on - month. Consumption - end prices showed a recovery trend, and production - end prices were characterized by differentiation [14]. - In November, the overall social financing was stable, and credit increased less year - on - year. Government bond financing supported the growth of social financing, while the demand of the resident sector was weak, and the demand of the enterprise sector improved marginally [18]. - The profits of industrial enterprises increased steadily. From January to October 2025, the cumulative profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises increased for three consecutive months. In the future, policies are expected to promote the growth of industrial enterprise profits [19][20]. 3. Future Economic Outlook - Overseas, the main narrative is the soft landing of the economy, but there are still uncertainties in the structure. The US economy is expected to maintain a positive trend, but there are risks such as the differentiation between the real and virtual economies, the widening wealth gap, and the differentiation between AI and non - AI investments [21]. - At the domestic policy level, in 2026, the macro - policy will be more proactive. Fiscal policy will be more positive and pay attention to robustness and sustainability, and monetary policy will be moderately loose, with possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [21]. - In terms of the economy, the economic growth rate in 2026 is expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half. The endogenous recovery momentum of domestic demand needs to be consolidated, and exports are expected to perform well [22]. 4. Investment Suggestions - Equity market: In the short term, the market may show a volatile upward trend. Investors should focus on sectors with positive event catalysts, sectors benefiting from the recovery of the equity market, sectors benefiting from the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the supplementary rise of the large - consumption sector [24]. - Bond market: The volatility of ultra - long bonds may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the expected term of fiscal bond issuance and the adjustment of the risk assessment indicators of large banks [25]. - Commodity market: The differentiation intensifies. For precious metals, the long - bull foundation of gold remains. For crude oil, the price trend may continue to be weak. For internationally priced non - ferrous metals, the price is in a medium - term upward channel. For commodities priced by the domestic fundamentals, the prices of relevant "anti - involution" varieties will enter a wide - range volatile trend [26].

Economic Indicators - In July, the total electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, indicating structural changes in the economy [1][3] - Industrial electricity consumption accounts for nearly 60%, while traditional high-energy-consuming sectors such as chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials saw a collective decline in electricity usage [1][3] - High-tech manufacturing, electronic devices, biomedicine, and industrial robotics experienced electricity consumption growth rates exceeding 10% [3] Transportation and Financing - Railway freight volume has shown positive growth for six consecutive months, with July's freight volume reaching 452 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [3] - The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans remained above 272 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, indicating sustained financing willingness [3] Monetary Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would alleviate global funding cost pressures and expand China's monetary policy space [6] - Historical experience suggests that the LPR may be lowered by 10-15 basis points on September 22, aiming for a balance between stable exchange rates and supporting the real estate market [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Domestic policies are entering a sensitive phase, with intentions to stabilize the real estate market becoming evident [8] - Potential policy paths include urban village renovations, updating dilapidated housing, and supporting improvement demand, all pointing towards a high-quality housing market [8] - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing and the potential for similar actions in Shanghai and Shenzhen may lead to a rebound in core city real estate markets if combined with interest rate cuts [8][10] Long-term Real Estate Trends - Historical patterns indicate that stock markets often rise before real estate markets, suggesting a potential correlation in the current cycle [10] - Despite concerns about population peaks and high vacancy rates, the continuous expansion of money supply supports the long-term upward trend in core city housing prices [11] - The urbanization rate in China has just crossed 66%, with population and resources still concentrating in major cities, reinforcing the demand for real estate [11] Investment Strategies - The current low down payment ratios and mortgage rates present favorable conditions for homebuyers, making it a rational choice to sell properties in non-core areas and invest in prime locations [13] - The potential for housing prices in top cities to increase by 3-5 times over the next two decades is supported by the natural results of compounding and deepening urbanization [13] - Investors are advised to focus on "hardcore assets" such as properties near subway stations, quality school districts, and industrial clusters, which provide liquidity support and resilience [18]