证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 中债综指-上证指数走势图 袁闯 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530520010002 yuanchuang@hnchasing.com 张雯婷 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530524030002 zhangwenting30@hnchasing.com -9% 1% 11% 21% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 2025-12 中债综指 上证指数 投资要点 宏观报告（R3） 经济维持稳态，结构性改善明显 11 月份经济数据解读 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 1 向功能性财政新范式，全面推进金融强国建设 2025 2 10 济结构分化加剧 3 方位扩大国内需求、建设全国统一大市场，构 建新发展格局 "十五五"规划建议的学习专题报告三：迈 "十五五"规划建议的学习专题报告二：全 月份经济数据解读：物价超预期回暖，经 -11-27 20252025-11-11-07-14 经济维持稳态，结构性改善明显。一是 CPI延续回升态势。11月CPI 同比 0.7%，为 2024 年 3 月份以来最高，核心 CPI 同比涨幅连续 3 个 月保持在 ...

Economic Indicators - In July, the total electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, indicating structural changes in the economy [1][3] - Industrial electricity consumption accounts for nearly 60%, while traditional high-energy-consuming sectors such as chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials saw a collective decline in electricity usage [1][3] - High-tech manufacturing, electronic devices, biomedicine, and industrial robotics experienced electricity consumption growth rates exceeding 10% [3] Transportation and Financing - Railway freight volume has shown positive growth for six consecutive months, with July's freight volume reaching 452 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [3] - The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans remained above 272 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, indicating sustained financing willingness [3] Monetary Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would alleviate global funding cost pressures and expand China's monetary policy space [6] - Historical experience suggests that the LPR may be lowered by 10-15 basis points on September 22, aiming for a balance between stable exchange rates and supporting the real estate market [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Domestic policies are entering a sensitive phase, with intentions to stabilize the real estate market becoming evident [8] - Potential policy paths include urban village renovations, updating dilapidated housing, and supporting improvement demand, all pointing towards a high-quality housing market [8] - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing and the potential for similar actions in Shanghai and Shenzhen may lead to a rebound in core city real estate markets if combined with interest rate cuts [8][10] Long-term Real Estate Trends - Historical patterns indicate that stock markets often rise before real estate markets, suggesting a potential correlation in the current cycle [10] - Despite concerns about population peaks and high vacancy rates, the continuous expansion of money supply supports the long-term upward trend in core city housing prices [11] - The urbanization rate in China has just crossed 66%, with population and resources still concentrating in major cities, reinforcing the demand for real estate [11] Investment Strategies - The current low down payment ratios and mortgage rates present favorable conditions for homebuyers, making it a rational choice to sell properties in non-core areas and invest in prime locations [13] - The potential for housing prices in top cities to increase by 3-5 times over the next two decades is supported by the natural results of compounding and deepening urbanization [13] - Investors are advised to focus on "hardcore assets" such as properties near subway stations, quality school districts, and industrial clusters, which provide liquidity support and resilience [18]