金九银十，历来是上海二手房市场的销售旺季， 金九过半，上海二手房成交9804套，成交量并无明显起色。价格方面同样不容乐观，9 月上海二手住宅价格环比下跌 0.80%，整体呈下行趋势。 但从长远来看。随着此次政策的放松，市场活跃度还是有所提升，成交量可能有一定的回升。8月底，上海二手房成交量在短期内出现明显增长，当前还处 于政策窗口期，更多人有买房资格，理论来说也会创造更多成交。 价格方面，当前可能处于一个比较平稳的状态，成交高低主要还是看地段、看未来、看房子本身。由于多年的上涨和大多数收入不匹配，大家对房价已经失 去了理性认知，对于买家来说，降多少都觉得还差点意思；对于急用钱的业主来说，我付出也很多，已经是割肉在售。那个让人回归理性的价格拐点，大家 心里都没数。 另一方面，刚需和改善性购房仍是市场主力。年轻人首套房以及通过置换改善居住条件的需求将持续释放。尤其是置换，一般来说，对房屋品质、小区环 境、周边配套等要求更高，高品质房源的市场需求可能会进一步增加 。 与之相对比的，上海二手房挂牌量逼近39万套大关。大量房源涌入市场，使得供需关系进一步失衡。 尽管上海楼市政策有所松绑，但市场向来是买涨不买跌。由于经济 ...

近日，中国建筑（601668）（601668.SH）公布2025年1—8月经营情况简报。2025年前8个月，中国建 筑实现新签合同总额28799亿元，同比增长1.0%，业务规模保持稳健增长态势。 建筑业务方面，新签合同额26644亿元，同比增长1.8%。其中，房屋建筑业务17606亿元，同比增长 0.2%；基础设施业务8954亿元，同比增长5.0%。按地区划分，境内业务25306亿元，同比增长2.2%。实 物量指标方面，房屋建筑施工面积155615万平方米；新开工面积18041万平方米；竣工面积12479万平方 米。 此外，中国建筑近期披露获得重大项目正在稳步推进，合计85.9亿元项目金额。其中包括房屋建筑类项 目3项：沙特阿拉伯德拉伊耶二期歌剧院街区项目、浙江金华金东区金漪湖未来产业科技园配套基础设 施建设项目—未来产业科技园及配套工程及上海浦东新区张家浜楔形绿地F1b-01地块住宅项目；各地工 程建设进度基本符合预期，为完成全年目标任务奠定了坚实基础。 2025年8月楼市政策以松绑为主，一系列政策通过扩大公积金使用范围、进一步放开限购、减轻租购负 担等方式，持续激发市场活力。预计9月将迎来传统营销旺季，核 ...

内房股集体走低，截至发稿，世茂集团(00813)跌4.71%，报0.405港元；中梁控股(02772)跌3.41%，报 0.085港元；融创中国(01918)跌3.21%，报1.81港元；中国海外宏洋集团(00081)跌3.07%，报2.53港元。 交银国际近日研报指出，受天气持续炎热影响，楼市整体供求延续偏软，城市间、项目间的分化持续加 剧。8月楼市以公积金政策和松绑政策为主。一系列政策通过扩大公积金使用范围、进一步放开限购、 减轻租购负担等方式，持续激发市场活力。预计9月迎来传统营销旺季，房企较大机会加快推盘节奏和 加大折扣力度，核心一线城市放宽限购利好政策出台，在逐步修复下，市场活跃度有望迎来阶段性回 升。 消息面上，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—8月份，全国房地产开发投资60309亿元，同比下降12.9%。1 —8月份，新建商品房销售面积57304万平方米，同比下降4.7%；其中住宅销售面积下降4.7%。新建商 品房销售额55015亿元，下降7.3%；其中住宅销售额下降7.0%。8月末，商品房待售面积76169万平方 米，比7月末减少317万平方米。其中，住宅待售面积减少307万平方米。 ...

9月5日，记者从深圳市住建局网站获悉，《深圳市住房和建设局 中国人民银行深圳市分行关于进一步优化调整深圳市房地产政策措施的通知》正式发布， 《通知》自2025年9月6日（周六）起施行。 继北京和上海之后，深圳楼市的新政策成为市场关注的焦点。 除了限购区域调整，《通知》提出分区优化调整企事业单位购买商品住房政策，企事业单位可在深圳市范围内购买商品住房，用于解决员工住房等需求。其 中，在福田区、南山区和宝安区新安街道范围内购买商品住房，需同时满足设立年限满1年、在深圳市累计缴纳税款金额达100万元人民币、员工人数10名及 以上条件；在深圳市其他区域购买商品住房，不再审核购房资格。 《通知》还提到，优化调整个人住房信贷政策，各银行业金融机构根据深圳市市场利率定价自律机制要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率 定价机制安排方面不再区分首套住房和二套住房，合理确定每笔商业性个人住房贷款的具体利率水平。 同日，深圳市住房和建设局网站发布《深圳市住房公积金管理办法》和《深圳市住房公积金提取管理规定》两项文件的修订征求意见稿。包括：1.拟新增六类 提取情形支持职工住房消费，加大对职工购买首套或第二套住房的支持力度， ...

Economic Indicators - In July, the total electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, indicating structural changes in the economy [1][3] - Industrial electricity consumption accounts for nearly 60%, while traditional high-energy-consuming sectors such as chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials saw a collective decline in electricity usage [1][3] - High-tech manufacturing, electronic devices, biomedicine, and industrial robotics experienced electricity consumption growth rates exceeding 10% [3] Transportation and Financing - Railway freight volume has shown positive growth for six consecutive months, with July's freight volume reaching 452 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [3] - The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans remained above 272 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, indicating sustained financing willingness [3] Monetary Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would alleviate global funding cost pressures and expand China's monetary policy space [6] - Historical experience suggests that the LPR may be lowered by 10-15 basis points on September 22, aiming for a balance between stable exchange rates and supporting the real estate market [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Domestic policies are entering a sensitive phase, with intentions to stabilize the real estate market becoming evident [8] - Potential policy paths include urban village renovations, updating dilapidated housing, and supporting improvement demand, all pointing towards a high-quality housing market [8] - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing and the potential for similar actions in Shanghai and Shenzhen may lead to a rebound in core city real estate markets if combined with interest rate cuts [8][10] Long-term Real Estate Trends - Historical patterns indicate that stock markets often rise before real estate markets, suggesting a potential correlation in the current cycle [10] - Despite concerns about population peaks and high vacancy rates, the continuous expansion of money supply supports the long-term upward trend in core city housing prices [11] - The urbanization rate in China has just crossed 66%, with population and resources still concentrating in major cities, reinforcing the demand for real estate [11] Investment Strategies - The current low down payment ratios and mortgage rates present favorable conditions for homebuyers, making it a rational choice to sell properties in non-core areas and invest in prime locations [13] - The potential for housing prices in top cities to increase by 3-5 times over the next two decades is supported by the natural results of compounding and deepening urbanization [13] - Investors are advised to focus on "hardcore assets" such as properties near subway stations, quality school districts, and industrial clusters, which provide liquidity support and resilience [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent policy changes in Beijing that have led to increased customer traffic in properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, indicating signs of market stabilization despite no explosive growth in transactions [2][10] - The anticipation for similar policy adjustments in Shanghai and Shenzhen is evident, with industry insiders believing that it is only a matter of time before these cities follow suit [3][4] - The policy shift in Beijing represents a significant change in regulatory philosophy, moving from strict controls to more flexible measures, which could serve as a reference for other first-tier cities [5][6] Group 2 - The article suggests that the market may experience a structural trend, with certain areas in Beijing seeing significant month-on-month transaction increases, while more remote regions may continue to face pressure [8] - Data from Shenzhen indicates a decline in the proportion of new citizens purchasing homes, reflecting a decrease in purchasing power, which could impact the effectiveness of any forthcoming policy relaxations [9] - The "sample effect" from Beijing's policy changes has sparked market expectations, but the complexity and time lag of policy transmission are highlighted, emphasizing that policies alone cannot create purchasing power [10]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's recent policy adjustment to relax purchase restrictions is a response to the ongoing pressure in the real estate market, indicating a potential shift towards stabilizing housing prices and sales [2][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - On August 8, Beijing's Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee announced the cancellation of purchase restrictions for local residents and non-local residents with over two years of social security outside the Fifth Ring Road [2]. - The policy also includes increased support for housing provident fund loans, aiming to stimulate the housing market [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The real estate market has faced renewed pressure since the third quarter, with residential sales area dropping below 800 million square meters over the past 12 months as of June [3]. - New home sales in 30 major cities have shown a year-on-year decline of 12% since July, indicating a weak seasonal performance [3]. - In Beijing, while new home sales area has not significantly declined compared to last year, the average transaction price for new homes fell by 4% year-on-year in June, and second-hand home prices decreased by 1.8% [3]. Group 3: Implications of Policy Changes - The timing of the policy relaxation exceeded market expectations, signaling that stabilizing the housing market remains a priority for policymakers [4]. - The relaxation of restrictions in Beijing may lead to similar actions in other major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, potentially injecting new purchasing power into the market [4]. - Historical trends suggest that if housing prices and new home transactions continue to decline, further significant policy measures to stabilize the market may be anticipated [4].