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Core Viewpoint - The reopening of the Malaszewicze border crossing on the 25th is expected to alleviate the disruptions faced by the China-Europe Railway Express, which had been halted since September 12 due to border closures by Poland [1][2][5] Group 1: Impact of Border Closure - The closure of the Malaszewicze border crossing significantly impacted the China-Europe Railway Express, which is a crucial land freight route connecting China and Europe, with 85%-90% of its trains passing through or arriving in Poland [2][4] - The border closure was initiated due to security concerns related to military exercises and drone incidents, leading to a halt in operations for over a month [1][5] Group 2: Industry Reactions - The logistics industry expressed relief at the announcement of the reopening, with many companies eager to resume operations [1][4] - There is a consensus among industry insiders that Poland would not indefinitely keep the border closed, as it serves as a vital trade route for both Belarus and Europe [5][6] Group 3: Alternative Routes - Discussions about alternative routes, such as the Caspian Sea corridor or northern routes through St. Petersburg, have been cautious due to their limitations and the imbalance in cargo volume [6][7] - The current capacity of alternative routes is insufficient to handle the volume that the Malaszewicze crossing typically accommodates, making it unlikely for these routes to effectively replace the main corridor in the short term [6][7] Group 4: Future Expectations - Following the reopening, a temporary congestion is anticipated as backlogged trains are processed, with an estimated one week required to clear the accumulated traffic [7]

Group 1 - Poland's Prime Minister Tusk announced the reopening of the border with Belarus on September 25, following a complete closure on September 11 due to military exercises by Russia and Belarus [1][2] - The closure of the border disrupted the China-Europe Railway Express, causing significant impacts on trade logistics between China and Europe [1][4] - The China-Europe Railway Express is a crucial land freight route connecting China and Europe, with approximately 90% of its trains entering the EU through Poland [4] Group 2 - Some companies have shifted from using the China-Europe Railway Express to maritime transport due to the border closure, resulting in longer shipping times of about 60 days compared to 30-40 days by rail [7][9] - The "Istanbul Bridge" vessel has initiated a new Arctic shipping route, significantly reducing transit time to Europe to just 18 days, marking a new record for China-Europe shipping efficiency [9] - This Arctic route is part of the "Belt and Road" initiative and aims to provide faster and more sustainable logistics options for industries such as high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce [9]

Core Insights - The forum highlighted the significant achievements of China's high-speed rail express in supporting the construction of a comprehensive transportation system, meeting public needs, and facilitating digital transformation [1] - Emphasis was placed on high-quality development and the construction of a modern logistics system in China, focusing on technological empowerment, product innovation, and green low-carbon transformation [1][2] Group 1: Industry Developments - The chairman of China Railway Express emphasized the steady advancement of high-speed rail freight capacity, product system improvement, and brand development [1] - Plans include deepening digital transformation, promoting the application of online freight platforms, expanding transport capacity, and enhancing the scale of new energy vehicle transportation [1] - The goal is to create a first-class national online freight platform and contribute to reducing logistics costs and supporting high-quality economic development [1] Group 2: Logistics Optimization - A professor from Beijing Jiaotong University pointed out that reducing logistics costs does not equate to lowering prices; instead, it requires optimizing resource allocation and enhancing organizational levels in logistics and supply chains [2] - The focus should be on structural, systematic, and full-chain cost reductions, leveraging the backbone role of railways to enhance the stability of freight trains [2] - The forum discussed the construction of a railway network freight platform, emphasizing collaboration and market-driven service offerings based on high-speed rail freight resources [2]

Group 1 - Poland's Minister of Interior and Administration, Mariusz Kamiński, announced the indefinite closure of all border crossings with Belarus due to security concerns stemming from joint military exercises by Russia and Belarus, effective from September 12 [1] - The closure has led to a significant disruption in the Central European freight transport, particularly affecting the Małaszewicze border crossing, which is a crucial hub for the China-Europe Railway Express [3][5] - The European Railway Freight Association estimates that 85%-90% of the Central European trains pass through Poland, resulting in approximately 300 trains carrying goods such as electronics and automotive parts being stranded in Belarus, causing supply chain costs to rise by over 15% [3][5] Group 2 - The EU Supply Chain Monitoring Center reported that the disruption could freeze land routes worth up to €25 billion in trade, impacting e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein with delays and increased rerouting costs [6] - The China-Europe Railway Express is highlighted as a flagship project for cooperation between China and Poland, emphasizing the importance of ensuring smooth transit to maintain stability in international supply chains [7] - Currently, Poland has not announced a timeline for the reopening of the border crossings, which may continue to affect trade between Asia and Europe [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream energy prices have a slight correction, and sectors such as steel and building materials are relatively weak. The steel market is in a bottoming - out stage with slow demand recovery and supply pressure. Although the cost side has strong support, factors like increased social inventory and cautious terminal procurement restrict steel price rebounds [1]. - The mid - stream high - tech manufacturing industry continues to improve. In Jiangxi, the high - tech manufacturing industry shows strong momentum, with the sales of the new energy and equipment manufacturing industrial chains increasing by 20.9% and 17.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The manufacturing industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading towards high - end, intelligent, and green directions driven by policy support and technological innovation [1]. - Downstream consumption sees local governments and enterprises jointly issuing large - scale consumption subsidy vouchers and launching intensive theme promotion activities to seize the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". For example, Chongqing launched the "2025 Autumn Consumption Season" on September 1st, planning to invest over 1.7 billion yuan in promotion funds and carry out more than 500 consumption promotion activities. Guangdong will issue 20 million yuan in cultural and tourism consumption vouchers on September 12th [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Mid - level Overview - Upstream: Energy prices slightly correct, and steel and building materials are weak. The steel market is in a difficult situation with slow demand recovery and supply pressure [1]. - Mid - stream: High - tech manufacturing in Jiangxi shows strong growth, and the overall manufacturing industry is upgrading [1]. - Downstream: Local governments and enterprises promote consumption through subsidy vouchers and promotion activities [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Production Industry - Not detailed in the text other than the mid - stream high - tech manufacturing situation mentioned above 3.2.2. Service Industry - Not detailed in the text 3.3. Industry Pricing - PE (TTM) and PB values, as well as their trends and quantiles, are provided for various industries such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and construction. For example, the PE (TTM) of the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry is 53.6, with a quantile of 100%, and the PB is 4.78, with a quantile of 98% [32]. - Industry credit spreads are presented for different industries, including their values at different time points (last year, one quarter ago, one month ago, last week, this week) and quantiles. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week is 50.46, with a quantile of 2.90% [33]. 3.4. Sub - industry Tracking 3.4.1. Generalized Agriculture - Palm oil and corn prices continue to decline, while cotton prices continue to rise. Apple and cotton inventories decline cyclically [2]. 3.4.2. Chemical Industry - The PTA price goes up, and the urea inventory goes up [4]. 3.4.3. Non - ferrous Industry - The zinc price slightly declines, and the lead price goes up. The inventories of lead and copper decline cyclically [3]. 3.4.4. Ferrous Industry - All commodity prices in the ferrous industry slightly decline, and the inventories of coking coal and coke decline [3]. 3.4.5. Infrastructure Industry - The concrete price rebounds, and the cement price remains stable [5]. 3.4.6. Logistics and Transportation - Railway and road freight increase, while waterway freight volume decreases [7]. 3.4.7. Automobile Manufacturing - Not detailed in the text 3.4.8. Real Estate Industry - In key monitored cities this period, the sales of commercial housing in Chongqing, Nanchang, Qingdao, Jinan, and Zhengzhou decline significantly compared to the previous period [6].

Core Insights - The construction of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) demonstration zone has seen significant growth in the operation of China-Europe (Central Asia) freight trains, with a total of 4,803 trains dispatched over the past seven years, averaging a 33% annual increase [1] - The number of freight trains passing through the Horgos railway port has exceeded 6,600 this year, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, which supports the supply chain security for SCO member countries [2] - The Horgos port has implemented reforms that have drastically reduced the customs clearance time for imported goods from 2-3 days to under 16 hours, a reduction of 70%, and for exported goods from 6 hours to 1 hour, a reduction of 80% [4] Industry Developments - The Horgos customs provides 24/7 clearance services to ensure the efficient operation of the China-Europe (Central Asia) freight trains, with a cumulative total of over 48,000 trains passing through since 2016 [6] - The number of international freight train routes has reached 90, covering 18 countries and 46 cities and regions, establishing itself as a "golden channel" for international land logistics [6] - The variety of goods transported by the freight trains includes construction materials, agricultural machinery, vehicles, clothing, cosmetics, and electronic components, indicating a diverse cargo profile [2]

Economic Indicators - In July, the total electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, indicating structural changes in the economy [1][3] - Industrial electricity consumption accounts for nearly 60%, while traditional high-energy-consuming sectors such as chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials saw a collective decline in electricity usage [1][3] - High-tech manufacturing, electronic devices, biomedicine, and industrial robotics experienced electricity consumption growth rates exceeding 10% [3] Transportation and Financing - Railway freight volume has shown positive growth for six consecutive months, with July's freight volume reaching 452 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [3] - The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans remained above 272 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, indicating sustained financing willingness [3] Monetary Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would alleviate global funding cost pressures and expand China's monetary policy space [6] - Historical experience suggests that the LPR may be lowered by 10-15 basis points on September 22, aiming for a balance between stable exchange rates and supporting the real estate market [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Domestic policies are entering a sensitive phase, with intentions to stabilize the real estate market becoming evident [8] - Potential policy paths include urban village renovations, updating dilapidated housing, and supporting improvement demand, all pointing towards a high-quality housing market [8] - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing and the potential for similar actions in Shanghai and Shenzhen may lead to a rebound in core city real estate markets if combined with interest rate cuts [8][10] Long-term Real Estate Trends - Historical patterns indicate that stock markets often rise before real estate markets, suggesting a potential correlation in the current cycle [10] - Despite concerns about population peaks and high vacancy rates, the continuous expansion of money supply supports the long-term upward trend in core city housing prices [11] - The urbanization rate in China has just crossed 66%, with population and resources still concentrating in major cities, reinforcing the demand for real estate [11] Investment Strategies - The current low down payment ratios and mortgage rates present favorable conditions for homebuyers, making it a rational choice to sell properties in non-core areas and invest in prime locations [13] - The potential for housing prices in top cities to increase by 3-5 times over the next two decades is supported by the natural results of compounding and deepening urbanization [13] - Investors are advised to focus on "hardcore assets" such as properties near subway stations, quality school districts, and industrial clusters, which provide liquidity support and resilience [18]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **express delivery and logistics industry** in China, with a focus on the impact of recent regulatory changes and market dynamics on various companies within the sector [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Increases in Express Delivery**: The express delivery industry is witnessing initial success in reversing the trend of price undercutting, with multiple regions experiencing price hikes due to severe losses among franchisees and regulatory pressure for market stability. This price increase is expected to be more sustainable compared to the isolated price hikes in Yiwu in 2021, benefiting from the upcoming peak demand season [1][6][7]. - **Recommendations for E-commerce Delivery Companies**: Companies with strong service quality and cash flow, such as **ZTO Express** and **YTO Express**, are recommended. Additionally, **J&T Express** is highlighted for its competitive position in Southeast Asia, while **SF Express** is noted for its stable high-end service business [1][8]. - **Cross-border E-commerce Logistics**: The volume of air cargo to the U.S. has recovered to 70% of pre-tariff levels, which is better than expected. Eastern Airlines Logistics is performing well with high load factors, and despite a decrease in freight rates, the situation remains favorable. A dividend yield of 4.7% suggests a potential investment opportunity if tariffs improve or volumes increase [1][9]. - **Airline Sector Performance**: The airline sector is experiencing weak ticket prices but good passenger volumes. The fundamentals are well-reflected, and factors like oil prices and exchange rates may provide benefits. **Huaxia Airlines** is recommended due to its leading position in regional aviation and improved subsidy standards, which enhance profit certainty [1][23]. - **Rail Freight Outlook**: **Tielong Logistics** is favored due to its special container business benefiting from equipment upgrades and strong synergy with upstream steel companies. The potential for profit elasticity exists due to the ongoing reversal of price undercutting [1][21][22]. Additional Important Insights - **July Performance of the Transportation Sector**: The overall transportation sector saw a decline of 0.2%, underperforming the CSI 800 index by 4.2 percentage points. Sub-sectors like airports, shipping, and logistics performed relatively well, with increases of 4.3%, 2.4%, and 1.2%, respectively [2]. - **Market Sentiment and Future Recommendations**: The call suggests a continued focus on companies benefiting from the reversal of price undercutting in express delivery, core assets in aviation and express sectors, and stocks in cross-border logistics with potential catalysts from mid-year earnings reports [3]. - **Logistics Sector Performance**: The logistics sector saw a 1.2% increase, with road freight leading at 5.9%. Cross-border logistics rose by 3.3%, while express delivery only increased by 0.6%, reflecting market skepticism about the sustainability of the recovery [5]. - **Future Trends in Container Shipping**: Container shipping rates have shown a downward trend in July, with expectations of continued pressure in August due to high base effects and tariff impacts. The overall volume is expected to stabilize, but rates may continue to decline [12]. - **Air Cargo Market Dynamics**: The air cargo market is expected to maintain low supply levels, particularly for long-haul routes, while domestic airlines are enhancing their logistics capabilities. Positive outcomes from U.S.-China negotiations could serve as a catalyst for growth [30]. - **Investment Recommendations for Airport Stocks**: The airport sector is advised to focus on companies with stable earnings and high dividend yields, especially in light of recent performance and potential geopolitical events that could impact market conditions [15][31]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the express delivery and logistics industry.

Group 1 - The total railway freight turnover in China from January to May 2025 reached 14,731.82 billion ton-kilometers, reflecting a cumulative growth of 1.4% [1] - In May 2025, the railway freight turnover was 3,080.61 billion ton-kilometers, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, but the growth rate decreased by 6.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The month-on-month growth in May 2025 was 2.05% [1]