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国泰海通|策略:越世界,越中国——中国企业全球化与出海系列一
重要提醒 报告导读: 中国企业正进入大出海时代,并向着全球价值链高端环节进军。全球宽松周期 后半程,海外工业化与基建投资进入上行周期,中国科技制造外需的增长韧性或超预期。 产业出海是制造业国家经济转型的关键一跃,中国正进入出海加速阶段。 中企出海的本质是在全球新一轮产业链转移的背景下,中国产业占领产业链高附加 值环节并走向深度全球化的过程。 历史经验看, 出海既是国家的主动战略规划,也是现实增长约束下的合理选择。在国内要素成本上升、外部市场准入趋严 与本币升值压力下,向价值链高端化转型与推动产业出海是高质量发展的必然要求。海外制造业大国通常在人均 GDP 约 1.5 万美元后进入近十年的出海加速 期,同时伴随着本币的新一轮升值周期。我们认为,走向全球的中国企业可以更好立足国内创新等要素比较优势整合全球低成本资源,并一定程度减少贸易摩 擦与改善国际经贸关系。在"既看 GDP 也看 GNI "的增长目标下,中国经济发展模式正从" GDP 目标 - 投资驱动 - 扩大出口"向" GNI 目标 - 创新驱动 - 出海加速"加快转变。 全球产业竞争优势快速提升,中企走向 2.0 时代体系化出海。 中国近年来贸易竞争力快 ...
上半年GDP10强城市基本确定:上海第1,杭州甩开武汉,青岛无缘
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-27 19:16
Group 1: Economic Performance - Shanghai leads the GDP rankings with 26,222.15 billion yuan, followed by Beijing and Shenzhen [1] - Chongqing enters the top four for the first time with a GDP of 15,929.58 billion yuan, indicating strong economic growth [1] - Hangzhou shows remarkable growth with an 11.5% nominal increase, surpassing Wuhan by over 700 million yuan [1][4] Group 2: Structural Changes - Shanghai's 4.61% growth rate masks significant structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing declining by 3.2% while strategic emerging industries like integrated circuits and AI grow by 14.5% [2] - The rise of the Lingang New Area is notable, with offshore trade settlement exceeding 800 billion yuan, accounting for 28% of the national total [2] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Hangzhou's digital economy core industry value reaches 4,380 billion yuan, making up 38.7% of its GDP [4] - In contrast, Wuhan's growth in traditional industries is only 4.8%, highlighting a disparity in industrial evolution [6] - Qingdao's economic transformation faces challenges, with a decline in the contribution rate of the marine economy and lagging digital transformation compared to Ningbo-Zhoushan Port [7] Group 4: Future Trends - The competition among cities reflects a generational shift in China's economic development model, emphasizing innovation as a core driver [8] - The narrowing GDP gap among cities indicates a transition from factor-driven to efficiency-driven growth, which will shape urban development in the next decade [8]